The 18th pick (and possibly the 19th) belong to the Portland Trailblazers and GM: Simon Cushing. Simon selects: Gary Trent, SF, 6-8. Ohio University ============================================================================= I. TEAM NEEDS AND HISTORY A run-down of the Blazer roster, position by position, with needs and possible moves: Players: (*=starter, +=UFA) (1) CENTRE: Number Name College Height Weight Sal./K Born Age 24 Chris Dudley* Yale 6'11" 240lbs $3,500 2.22.65 30 53 James Edwards+ Washington 7'1" 252 $ 325 10.22.55 39 This has been Dudley's first full season with the Blazers, and reports must be mixed. What cannot be denied is that he is a bruising low-post defender, capable shot-blocker and EXCELLENT rebounder. What also cannot be denied is that he may be the lowest-scoring starter in the league, and as a free-thrower makes Shaq look like Mark Price. He played a very large role in returning the Blazers to the NBA elite in rebounding, and has been a huge help in their vastly improved half-court defence (masterminded no doubt by Dick Harter, ex-assistant for the Knicks). However, while he can defend medium sized bangers pretty well, and does as creditably a job on people like Hakeem as anyone, he only weighs 240 (and gets abused by the likes of Felton Spencer, for example) and does not look pretty running. A player of very limited skills who plays intelligent defence and WILL not be outhustled. The Blazers will keep him, and probably continue to start him, unless they are offered the likes of Vlade Divac in exchange. Edwards should have retired last year. Even his patented fallaway was unreliable, and he is SLOOOW. Good for the odd hard foul, but little else, I'd be surprised to see him on anyone's roster next year, and he wasn't really on the Blazers' for all the minutes he played this year. Portland mostly made do without a centre when Dudley was off the floor, although Otis Thorpe played a lot of minutes there, and ate into some of Dudley's after he was acquired. Dudley was more of a hindrance than a help against Phoenix, and saw only 10 mins of action in game 3, when the Blazers did best. Possible moves: The Blazers need YOUTH and low-post SCORING at this position. ******UPDATE: Rumours abound that the Blazers are actively seeking to sign Arvidas Sabonis, the 7'3" Lithuanian stat whom they drafted way back in 1986, and who has been one of the dominant players in Europe for the past decade. He was the centrepiece of the USSR team that beat the John Thompson coached US olympic team that had David Robinson, Danny Manning and Mitch Richmond in 1988, and was this year named European player of the year after leading Real Madrid to the European title. Sabonis is 31 and has been slowed by a succession of leg injuries, but by all accounts can score inside and out (shooting at a better than 60% clip from the field and 78% from the line), can rebound well (12+rpg) and is an excellent passer. The scoring and passing alone make him a valuable addition to the Blazer frontcourt, and would mean that centre becomes one of the Blazers' stronger positions, meaning that Portland are unlikely to draft a centre, unless a good young project falls to their pick, who could be brought along for when Sabonis, 31, and Dudley, 30, get past their prime. Everything said about Roberts above is likely true about Sabonis: i.e., un- likely to take more than half the minutes at centre, as he's not NBA fit yet and has a history of leg injuries, and is likely to foul a lot at first, so could share time with Dudley if the Blazers decide to hold on to both. There are no half-decent centres in the draft (unless Tim Duncan declares) even if the Blazers could trade up, further reason not to draft a centre (unless a Cherokee Parks drops to #18, in which case he'd be worth a risk, if there was no star still hanging around). Kevin Garnett, the prep star who declared prematurely, is CALLED a centre, but will probably play SF if he makes it in the pro.s. The Blazers could take a risk on him if he drops. (2) POWER FORWARD: Number Name College Height Weight Sal./K Born Age 52 Buck Williams* Maryland 6'8" 225 $3,200 3.8.60 35 33 Otis Thorpe Providence 6'10" 245 $2,578 8.5.62 32 2 Mark Bryant+ Seton Hall 6'9" 245 $1,400 4.25.65 30 Everyone expected Otis to displace Buck in the starting lineup soon after he was acquired, but that never happened, and rightly so, in my opinion. Although Otis is a superior low-post scorer (he is incredibly strong and very hard to stop if he gets the ball with position, even though his moves are pretty predictable), he is not as good a defender or, surprisingly, rebounder, and is certainly not the leader that Buck is. Hard to believe that Williams is only an inch taller and 3 pounds heavier than Clyde Drexler, yet he is in the NBA elite in career rebounds. He was perhaps the biggest factor in the Blazers escaper from mediocrity to being one of the elite teams of the league in the early 90s, and is still going strong. He is a great person, a leader, and sets an excellent example for the other hot-heads on the team. He will NOT be traded, not just because he's hard to trade (he's a "base-year" player - he earns a huge amount, which would count against the cap of any team who acquired him, but only counts for a small amount against the Blazers cap, so could only be traded for an underpayed player) but because he's the heart of the team. Thorpe, as mentioned, is a very good low-post scorer, but disappointed in the playoffs, and is a quiet sort. I think Otis is a trading piece, and will be gone before next season. The same is true of Mark Bryant, who is a UFA who won't be re-signed. An average backup, he could start for Houston, but was surplus to Blazer requirements this year and hardly played at all. Great '70s "do", though rivals even Charles Oakley's. (Bryant is a base-year player, so he will only vacate a $600K slot, unfortunately.) Possible Moves: The Blazers appear stacked at this position, but I think that will change quickly. Bryant is gone already, Otis will soon follow, and Buck is long-in- the-tooth. Added to that, this years draft is deeper in PFs than in any other position. I can see Junior Burrough or Mario Bennett, or that kind of player being available at #18, and if so, I think the Blazers will snap 'em up. Now I've predicted that Otis will be gone, it behoves me to suggest where; here are some possible trades involving Thorpe: Otis + James Robinson (tot. $3.4M) for Elden Campbell + A. Peeler ($3.2M) Otis for Brian Williams ($2M) + Denver's pick Otis ($2.6M) for Kendall Gill ($2.6M) Otis for Harold Miner ($1.5M) + Miami's pick (unlikely, but rumoured) If either of the first 2 trades happened, I might still draft a PF, as neither Campbell or Brian Williams will ever be stars, and both can back up Dudley at centre. (3) SMALL FORWARD: Number Name College Height Weight Sal./K Born Age 3 Cliff Robinson* Connecticut 6'10" 225 $2,732 12.16.66 28 25 Jerome Kersey Longwood Coll. 6'7" 225 $3,608 6.26.62 34 Ah, Clifford. What can we say? He's incredibly versatile - started at centre all last year, this year at small forward - and has increased his scoring every year he's been in the league (this was his 6th). He also missed the first games of his entire career this season, so for someone so skinny, he's remarkably durable. He used to be known only for his defence (which was excellent at all 3 frontcourt positions) but now is known mainly for offence, and few players benefitted more this year from the closer 3-point line than our Clifford. HOWEVER: He is agonisingly inconsistent, no more so than when the playoffs roll around. Though he improved on previous DISASTROUS playoff performances (in the 3rd game against Phoenix he had 20 points and 10 boards) this is not hard, and he shot atrociously from both the floor and the line. Whitsitt is said to judge a player most by their playoff performances, and if so, Cliff will be donning different-coloured headbands come November. Back to Cliff's game: he has suffered from the Majerle/Starks syndrome of late- forget the defence for which you became known, and float around the perimeter lofting ill-advised shots. It is irritatingly rare that he exploits his size and athleticism advantage at the 3-spot, but when he does, he can post up just about everyone. Someone on the Blazers list also noted that he rarely dunks with authority as in the past (and as he is more than capable of doing) preferring fancy finger-rolls which do indeed roll ... around and out. I think Cliff may have peaked as a scorer, and should be traded now while he has value. This is a pity, as he is a great local character, and was a real steal for a 2nd rounder, but he just doesn't come through in the clutch and is the epitome of the worst features of Blazer basketball - athletic but dumb, and poor in the clutch. Ah, Jerome. Here we have the opposite to Cliff - can't buy a shot during the regular season and turns the ball over as often as he misses. However, when the playoffs roll around, Kersey comes to play! He was one of the few bright spots against the Suns - diving on the floor, blocking breakaway layup attempts and actually hitting his shots (although, like every Blazer, he drew a blank at the line). Kersey will likely be left unprotected by the Blazers in the expansion draft, but will likely also be passed over, as his salary is OBSCENE, and he is 35 next month. He'll remain a Blazer, and I'm glad. He may be a jerk and a hothead, but he really seems to CARE about the outcome of the game and gives everything he's got - a rarity for players wearing Black and Red this season. His playing days are numbered, but he's there when it counts to give a flagrant foul and get himself ejected! Possible Moves: If Cliffy goes, that leaves a bit of a void at SF, although Grant could be moved back there from SG in a pinch. The only free agent worth pursuing (Danny Manning doesn't really count as a free agent, as he'll re-sign with Phoenix) is of course Anthony Mason, whom I'd LOVE to see as a Blazer (the team that drafted him, after all!) and we'll have Terry Porter's $2.6M slot to offer him. However, I fear the chances of landing him are slim: both the Knicks and the Lakers can offer him more, and he's also expressed interest in the Rockets, who could certainly use him. Otherwise, the only change I see happening at SF is if Cliffy is traded to help us move up in the draft and Gary Trent or even Ed O'Bannon drops to our pick, but there's little likelihood of that. (4) SHOOTING GUARD: Number Name College Height Weight Sal./K Born Age 44 Harvey Grant* Oklahoma 6'9" 225 $2,990 7.4.65 29 23 Aaron McKie Temple 6'5" 205 $ 650 10.2.72 22 26 James Robinson Alabama 6'2" 180 $ 845 8.31.70 24 Well, the other name for this position is BIG guard, and Harvey certainly fits that bill! Harvey was actually completely out of the Portland rotation until about the last 3rd of the season, when PJ got fed up with other teams posting up Portlands' small shooting guards (Aaron is _listed_ as 6'5, but if you believe that...) and tried the novel approach of starting Harvey there. Harvey acquitted himself pretty well, and it actually seemed to bring his game back to life. He started hitting the jumpers he routinely buried in Washington, and actually became aggressive once faced with player 2 or 3 inches shorter than himself. I bet he gets teased unmercifully by his twin brother, though... Earlier in the season, James Robinson was getting all the minutes that didn't go to Clyde, especially as Terry Porter was injured, and he had some pretty good games playing at both guard spots. However "Hollywood" is a classic 'tweener - too small to survive at 2G and just lacking the distribution skills to run the point. He can occasionally do spectacular things (like his dunk on Ewing in his rookie year) but is clueless as a defender, despite great natural speed, and either turns the ball over or launches an ill-advised 3 every time he touches the ball. After Drexler left, he was the starter for a short time before Aaron McKie took over. Aaron had up to this point been regarded by us Portland fans as a complete waste of a pick, as he got practically no min- utes before the all-star break. But once he was made a starter, he really impressed: he is a very solid, reliable player: unselfish, a much better shooter than expected, and a hard worker on defence. He'll never be a star, but he could turn into a Doc Rivers/Nate McMillan type, and should be kept if the choice came to him or Hollywood. He would have remained a starter if he hadn't had a bit of a slump, and proven to be vulnerable to posting up. Both he and Harvey played pretty well in the playoffs, for the short time the Blazers were there. Possible moves: This position is definitely the Blazers' weakest spot: Harvey is a temporary solution at best, as he could be taken to school by faster guards, and can't really dribble well enough for a guard (and he costs too much for what he contributes to the team). The Blazers want SIZE, DEFENCE and SCORING from the position (Michael Jordan would do nicely...) and will likely go after it this off-season. There are some interesting prospects in the draft this year, all of whom might fall to the Blazers' pick because of various doubts about them: Michael Finley - good size, speed, defence, suspect shot Lawrence Moten - good all round, maybe too good to drop, although haunted by the "timeout" Bob Sura - talented but out of control? Brent Barry - I maintain that he's a 2nd round pick, but Oregonians on the Blazers' list are high on him, and his stock is rising in the camps. Sherell Ford - MVP of the Desert Classic, played SF in college, so has good size, and can really shoot it. Compared with Malik Sealy, although that sounds like damning with faint praise If the Blazers went the trade route, the following players look attractive: Stacy Augmon - seems to have slumped since being bumped from 2G to SF by Steve Smith. Would Atlanta take Otis Thorpe for him? Probably not. Latrell Sprewell - likely to leave Golden State, but the Blazers have little to offer for him Kendall Gill - The most realistic prospect: if Karl stays in Seattle, I think Gill will go, and Otis Thorpe would be a fair exchange. (This would also mean that the much-rumoured Gill for Drexler trade had in effect taken place.) If not Otis, then they might go for Chris Dudley, who could also be moved now that Sabonis is likely to be signed. Of the players Portland has, Grant may even be exposed to the expansion draft because he earns so much, and Hollywood would be tradebait if anyone wanted him, but McKie is definitely a keeper. (5) POINT GUARD: Number Name College Height Weight Sal./K Born Age 1 Rod Strickland* DePaul 6'3" 185 $1,920 7.11.66 28 30 Terry Porter+ Steven's Point 6'3" 195 $2,600 4.8.63 32 12 Steve Henson+ Kansas State 6'1" 180 $ 150? 2.2.68 27 Rod Strickland was voted Blazers' MVP by his teammates last season, and you could make a very strong case for him being MVP again this season. He certainly made the most impact in the playoffs - averaging over 12apg and around 24ppg while going up against KJ - Which makes it all the more worrying that he and rookie coach PJ Carlesimo have openly feuded, Rod going on record to say that he "doesn't like PJ and never has". PJ has a huge 5 year contract, and was personally picked by Paul Allen, the billionaire owner, so HE probably isn't going anywhere. The argument certainly isn't over playing time, as, if anything PJ plays Rod too _many_ minutes (at the expense of Terry Porter, especially in the playoffs), but rather over PJ's dictatorial style, which may work in college, but pisses the pros off. Rod is a very good "pure" point - he is lightning-quick and can penetrate against anybody and usually get the layup or dish off. The major knock on him used to be his outside shooting, but he has greatly improved that, to the extent that his 3-point % is much better than the much more ballyhooed Kenny Anderson. Rod is definitely one of the top 5 or 6 PGs in the league. That said, however, I don't like the way PJ uses him: the ball is in Rods hands _all the time_, and he has to run plays most of the time rather than pushing it upcourt fast or passing forward on the break. It's certainly not the fast-breaking Blazer style of the past, and is sometimes pretty ugly to watch. Terry Porter is a UFA this season and is almost definitely gone. This is a great shame, as he's my all-time favourite Blazer: a fierce and sly competitor, GREAT clutch shooter (especially from 3-point range) and an emotional leader. He's also a great guy, and more articulate and funny than your average NBAer. It must be said that his game has deteriorated greatly over the past couple of years, but he was definitely under-used this season, particularly in the playoffs, and while Rod may be younger and more talented, he just can't inspire a team like Terry, and is no clutch player. Plus Terry has the greatest facial expressions when calls aren't going his way... However, his $2.6M slot has to be more valuable to the Blazers than his veteran leadership, so he'll be moving on. He would be a great addition to good young teams like Denver or even his hometown Bucks, much as Doc Rivers has been to the Spurs, and he can still fill it up from outside. He may not be the ball-handler or pure distributor that Rod is, but the ball seemed to move more when he was playing the point. Steve Henson was a pleasant surprise as an emergency fill-in, and can really shoot from outside, but will not return. He's just too slow. Possible moves: Well, I've said that both Porter and Henson will be gone, and now I'm going to say that Rod may go too. I'm not sure that the rift between him and PJ is healable, and in any case, he's the Blazers' most valuable trading asset. I think he'll be shopped around to lottery teams like Washington and Minnesota (somebody said Micheal Williams was as good as Rod - don't make me laugh!) who need a point guard - in which the draft is notably weak - in return for their pick. If the Blazers can't get a very high pick or a potential superstar, then he should stay, but his stock is probably at its zenith, and in anycase, I'm not a fan of making the PG the scoring star of the team: hasn't done much for Golden State, Philadelphia or even Phoenix (who did better when KJ was out this year). COACHING STAFF: Well, the Blazers' style certainly changed this year. Last year they were an all-offence, no defence team, who lived and died by the fast break. This year they've been a predomininantly half-court team, whose half-court defence has been up there with the best. However, they lost more games, despite having a healthy Clyde and Dudley, whom they didn't have last year. They actually outscored their opponents by one of the largest margins in the league (in con- trast to the more successful Lakers, who were _outscored_ on average) but this was because when they won, they blew the other team out (most notably the Lakers by the largest margin in their history, and San Antonio _in_ SA, by 20 points) but they lost ALL the close games. This is their major weakness: poor clutch play, particularly from the free-throw line. Nowhere was this more evident than against Phoenix in the third playoff game, where they would have won if they'd hit just 75% of their free-throws. Even their "stars", Clifford and Rod, disappeared at the end of close games - very frustrating. Is this the Coach's fault? Hard to say, but certainly PJ hasn't endeared himself to the players, most notably Rod, but also Clyde and others were rumoured. He's a rookie coach and this is a veteran team, but he's a control freak, which pisses them off. I would prefer to see PJ go myself, as I don't like his del- iberate half-court style, which I don't think best uses anyone's talents (except perhaps Dudley), but he's here for another year at least. That's why I think the team will change radically over the summer, something Whitsitt was acquired at great expense to do. Whitsitt likes PJ too, so I think he'll have a big hand in who goes and who stays. The way has been cleared by the Clyde trade, as his balloon salary was a major block to salary cap moves. I predict "Trader" Bob will be living up to his nickname in spades this off-season, and I hope the Blazers team that starts playing in the Rose Garden next year will be younger, and most importantly, more ENTHUSIASTIC than this year's disap- pointing edition. II. MY MOCK DRAFT SELECTION (Drumroll) ...GARY TRENT of the University of Ohio. I won't call this pick a "no-brainer", as I dislike the expression, but you get the general idea. Trent will be long gone by pick #18 in the real draft, (unless he has measured 6'2" in some pre-draft camp, or something) so I would be stupid to pass him up in this one, as he has dropped. I feel a little cheated, though, as a good mock draft pick (that would get me praise in Craig's retrospective next year) would be a surprise pick who turned out well, as perhaps a Brent Barry will. But I must think of the good of the team, and Trent is by all accounts a superstar in the making. He is a little short for PF, and lacks a small-forward's game, but makes up for it with great strengh and athleticism. He would pair up well with the tall-and-skinny Cliff Robin- son. III. OTHERS CONSIDERED Well, I did think that I'd be taking Michael Finley with this pick, but he went earlier than expected to the Celtics, so I'll concentrate on players still available: SHERELL FORD - Ford was MVP of the Desert Classic (an achievement which is put in perspective somewhat by the fact that Eric Piatkowski had that honour last year) and sounds like a great swingman scorer who can rebound well. He would be groomed to play the SG for the Blazers, so would need to work on his defence and ball-handling, but hey, it worked with Clyde Drexler... LOU ROE - While I don't see Roe becoming a star in the NBA, he strikes me as a George Lynch-type hustler. Small Forward size and body, PF game, but huge heart and determination. Buck Williams plays this role for the Blazers at present, but lacks an obvious successor. Roe is even smaller than Buck, but has (prepare for much over-used word) intangibles. BRENT BARRY - A largish minority of the Blazers mailing list wanted to take Barry, and he certainly sounds intriguing. Tall and rail-thin, but good def- ender, won the Portsmouth Slam-Dunk championship (over the Fab Two) and can apparently pass well enough to spell the point. TYUS EDNEY - Like Barry, he could turn out to be a steal or a bust. Very small (145lbs) but lightning quick and very gutty, as well as a great dis- tributor. Portland need a backup PG, but #18 is a little early. ALAN HENDERSON - Good college scorer and rebounder, but very thin, not a great athlete and went to Indiana... JUNIOR BURROUGH - Blazers need a young PF to develop, and he could be it. Sometimes disappointing in college, but very impressive in this year's NCAA tournament. IV. WHOM THE BLAZERS WILL PROBABLY TAKE As I've said, everything is up in the air in Rip City, with trades galore possible. If no significant trades happen, I think the Blazers will draft Michael Finley if available. Someone on the Blazers mailing list mentioned a rumour that Blazers' brass are really high on him. However, the only players whom I know for a fact have worked out for the Blazers are Cherokee Parks and ... Joe Smith! This really suggests that trades are possible! V. SUMMARY AND UPDATE The Sabonis news puts a different slant on a lot of what I've written above. Sabonis is not a player for a rebuilding team, as he's old and will demand a hefty salary (he's in great demand from all European teams, and is rumoured to have been paid the equivalent of $3M by Real, although he has publicly stated he's definitely going to play in the NBA this coming season). My guess is that Sabonis will be signed into Terry Porter's slot, and that the Blazers will now make fewer moves than I'd envisioned, hoping to seriously compete next year (their first in the Rose Garden) instead of embarking on a rebuilding year. If any trades are made, they will likely involve Thorpe or Dudley, and probably will try to net a decent shooting guard like Kendall Gill (who looks all the more likely to move with the news that George Karl has been given another chance in Seattle). I also think every effort will now be made to persuade Rod Strickland to stay a Blazer, in which case the Blazers will be solid at all positions. In the draft, therefore, I think the Blazers will take the proverbial BPA (best player available) regardless of position, as, unless major trades happen, it is unlikely that a rookie would start at any position. The Blazers' weakest position is still shooting guard, but their need is not so severe that they should pass on an obviously superior player from another position. The Blazers will also need a backup point guard, but it would be a waste to use a #18 pick on a PG in a draft that is deep in just about every position but that, especially when there are a glut of free agent PGs (including Elliot Perry and Gary Grant) who could probably be had cheap. Finally, I think PJ will be given the same grace period that George Karl has just been given in Seattle, but if Portland start slowly next year in their inaugural season in the spanking new Rose Garden, PJ will be out on his ear. It is now rumoured that Bob Whitsitt wants the next Blazers coach to be George Karl, and while a lot of Portland fans would be very pissed off by that, I wouldn't mind. With Seattle's recent playoff fiascos, it's easy to forget that Karl's first Seattle squad, which had decent perim- eter scorers (and Derrick McKey) made it to within a game of the finals. I think Karl is a good coach. =============================================================================