The 32nd, and last, pick in the 1995 Usenet draft belongs to
the New York Knicks. They traded their first round pick to
Dallas in 1992 for Rolando Blackman. In reality, the Knicks
do not have any picks at all. Their GM is:
Alan Sepinwall .
Alan selects:
Jerome Allen, PG, 6-4. Pennsylvania.
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Well, so much for the Knicks "window of opportunity." It got
slammed shut when Patrick Ewing's layup went in and out in the
final seconds of Game 7 against the Pacers.
Now the questions start. Are the Knicks going to try to stay with the
players they have, realizing that even if they're no longer really title
contenders, they're still in the upper echelon of Eastern Conference
teams? Are they going to attempt to rebuild? Can they?
The biggest issue, by far, is Pat Riley's status. Will he agree to a
contract extension or will he try to find a team that will give him
GM's duties and/or a piece of the club in addition to his coaching
duties?
I think Riley's out of here. He knows he's not going to win a title
here, and there's no way he'll damage his coaching record by running
a rebuilding team. And, as much as it pains me to admit it, I think
that's for the best. Riley is quite possibly the greatest motivator in
the history of the NBA - how many times during his reign did he
keep the Knicks from folding against incredible odds? - but his
tactical decisions really leave something to be desired. He plays
favorites - streaky John Starks has carte blanche to jack up ugly
looking shots all night, while sweet-shooting Hubert Davis gets
yanked if he misses a single jumper. He keeps the rotation too short,
despite the fact that the Knicks have excellent role players like
Anthony Bonner and Herb Williams and a promising rookie like
Monty Williams who could be a great help when the team is
struggling. His offensive schemes are woefully simple - a fact
covered up all those years in LA thanks to some guy named Earvin.
In addition, he's kind of worn out his welcome among the players -
and reportedly scared away a potential free-agent signee or two this
past offseason after hearing horror stories about Riley from some of
the Knicks. Anthony Mason, who is probably the Knicks second-best
player after Patrick Ewing, has fought with Riley so much in the last
two years that there is no way, IMHO, that Mase will stay if Riley
does. And considering how many other problems I have with Riley, I
honestly feel that Mason is the more valuable guy in this situation.
Anyways, here goes with the position by position analysis. I'll talk
more about any potential rebuilding process here and in the "other
moves the team should make" section.
CENTER
This past season, the general consensus was that Patrick Ewing had
slipped to the fourth-best at his position, after the Admiral, Hakeem,
and Shaq. If you consider the season overall, including Ewing's
mediocre and injury-plagued start, I'll concede that point. But when
Ewing's knees got healthy, he was as good as any of those other guys,
and sometimes better.
His offensive arsenal is varied and lethal - he's one of the best jump-
shooting big men in the history of the game. He doesn't go to the hole
as often as you'd like, though, but that's largely to save wear and
tear on his knees. Despite being a middling rebounder for his size
most of his career (the small hands that make him such a great
shooter also make it harder to pull a ball out of a crowd), he picked
up big-time rebounding slack when Charles Oakley was gone for the
entire middle of the season. He'll only block a couple of shots a game,
but is still a very good defender defender (unless your name
happens to be Rik Smits and you have 4 additional inches with which
to shoot over Patrick). Unfortunately, unless a miracle and/or a trade
occurs, Ewing will probably never get the championship ring he
deserves.
The real concern about Ewing stems from his knees, which are about
ten years older than the rest of him. At some point or other, the
Knicks need to find a talented young big man to caddy for and learn
>from Patrick for a few years in preparation for the eventual
retirement of The Franchise. One problem: good centers don't grow
on trees, and they especially don't grow outside of the lottery, a place
the Knicks don't figure to visit for several more years (at the
earliest).
There's no immediate need for a backup for Ewing, though, as Herb
Williams is on hand to provide a few minutes a night of heady,
veteran play. Charles Smith also gets a few minutes spotting Ewing,
and actually plays his best at the 5, since he's a natural post player.
POWER FORWARD:
Like Ewing, Charles Oakley's season was tainted somewhat by injury.
He was ineffective the first two dozen games of the season as he
struggled with a toe injury that he was reluctant to have surgery on.
When he realized that he wouldn't be The Oak again until he had the
operation, Charles went under the knife and missed several months.
His return was unimpressive, though that was largely due to the
tremendous play of Anthony Mason in Oakley's absence - Mase was
so hot that Pat Riley found it hard to give Oak long minutes, and thus
give him a chance to find a groove again.
He finally found that groove late in the season and into the playoffs,
and was playing like the Oak of old - diving for loose balls, setting
vicious picks, and wreaking havoc on the offensive boards. Oakley
doesn't have a great vertical but is very strong and great at getting
position for rebounds. He is also practically automatic when shooting
>from 15 feet - a fact that every power forward in the league seems
to forget when he's guarding Oakley. He also seems to possess some
kind of psychic link with Ewing - their no-look passes to each other
are reminiscent of Magic-to-Worthy. With the kind of shape he keeps
himself in, only another major injury would cause any kind of
deterioration in Oak's game for the next few years. There's already
been talk about putting Oakley on the block (for someone like Latrell
Sprewell, for example), but I'm not sure that's feasible - his trade
value isn't very high considering his injury-plagued year and the
upcoming balloon payment on his contract.
His backups are both named Anthony and are both unrestricted free
agents with gripes against Riley. Let's take Anthony Mason first. The
NBA's Sixth Man of the Year played like a house on fire in his walk
year, despite all the bickering with Riley. At 6'7" and a very
muscular 260 lbs., Mason is a devastating combination of strength
and speed, who can rebound like a power forward and handle the
ball like a point guard. He's probably best suited to his sixth man
role, as his play suffers when he's asked to start against guys who
are 3-4 inches taller than him. If Riley stays, Mason is gone - there
are several teams hot to sign him. But if Riley's gone, I think Mase
will find it hard to leave his native New York and the team for which
he has becoming the defining symbol. Then again, he may not want
to be part of a rebuilding process, either.
Anthony Bonner has a lot of the same skills as Mason, though none
are as impressively honed as Mase's. However, Bonner is a great
leaper (which Mason isn't) and the Knicks best finisher. He's better
suited for the open court than the halfcourt, and would probably
make a good sixth man for some Western conference team in need of
extra defense and rebounding. Bonner's been very unhappy with the
paltry minutes Riley's given him, and will bolt unless a new coach
comes in who promises him more time.
Charles Smith occasionally plays power forward when Riley wants
more scoring, and so does Herb Williams when Riley wants to go big.
SMALL FORWARD:
Every Knick fan I talk to is wishing desperately that one of the
expansion teams takes Charles Smith's erratic play and huge contract
off our hands in the expansion draft, so that we can use his salary
slot to sign a true small forward. I'm not as optimistic on either front.
While Smith has a lot of talent and could be a big-time scorer on an
expansion team, his contract is just far too big for any of them to
take him (although he was the first pick in the Usenet expansion
draft). More important, however, is the fact that due to the base year
salary rule, while Smith makes nearly $3M a year, if he was taken in
the expansion draft, the Knicks would only have a slot of about $1M
with which to sign a new player (one mil was the size of Smith's
previous contract before the Knicks used the "re-sign your own
player at any amount" clause to go over the salary cap to keep him).
Given the fact that we probably wouldn't get the small forward we
need with only $1M to play with, I think we're better off sticking
with Smith. He does have his good qualities. For starters, his 6'10"
size can give opposing teams matchup fits, provided he's allowed to
post up on small defenders (something Riley didn't do nearly enough
of). He's the only Knick other than Ewing who can block shots. He'll
give you 12-15 points a night and will break out and have a big
game every now and then. And though he's being forced to play out
of position at small forward, his good low post skills make the Knicks
respectable when the Knicks lose Ewing for a game or two. Smith is
probably best suited to a sixth man role, backing up all three
frontcourt positions (the way the Cavs used to use Hot Rod Williams).
If Oakley is dealt, Smith would move over to power forward, where
he would be a lot more comfortable.
As for the problem of finding a "true", creative, slashing small
forward, the Knicks may already have one. Monty Williams, who fell
to the Knicks at 24 in last year's draft only because of unwarranted
concerns about his easily-treatable heart condition, would appear to
have all the skills we're looking for in a 3. Unfortunately, we never
got a chance to find out this year, mostly thanks to Riley. Monty
stayed chained to the bench for the bulk of the season, even when
the Knicks were desperate for some scoring. And when Riley did
relent and let Monty start for a couple of weeks (due to all of the
inuries), he essentially put a leash on him - Monty was under orders
to pass at every opportunity and not try to score unless no other
Knick was open for a pass. One of the main reasons I think I'm
looking forward to the prospect of a new coach is that I hope he'll
give Monty free rein to show his stuff - and the few flashes he
provided were very impressive.
Mason and Bonner both spent time backing up Smith. Doug Christie
(if he's not plucked in the expansion draft, as he'll definitely be
exposed), might get time at 3 if there's a new coach, but I think he's too
small to adequately defend the position or drive on opposing small
forwards.
SHOOTING GUARD:
This position is the first one that I think any new coach will need to
address. I think the time has come for John Starks to move back to
the bench and let Hubert Davis start. Starks is the epitome of the
streak shooter, and it's that very nature that makes him much more
suited to come off the bench and provide a change of pace. Pat Riley
fell in love with Starks' fire and intensity early in his Knick coaching
career, and it blinded him to any of Starks' weaknesses - like the fact
that he chains himself to the three point line too often, despite the
fact that he has one of the league's quickest first steps and should
take it to the basket more often (remember The Dunk?). When he
heats up, he's unstoppable, but when he's cold, I could guard him.
Making him come off the bench would hopefully be the kick in the
ass that gets him to improve the holes in his game.
Davis will never be confused with a defensive stopper, which is why
he has trouble getting a lot of minutes in the Riley system, but his
jump shot is picture perfect (I once heard an opposing coach say that
the only NBA player with a better shot than Hubert was Dell Curry),
and he's got a decent array of moves when he goes to penetrate. His
defense is average at best, but he never dogs it - if a guy beats
Hubert, it's not for lack of effort, it's for lack of strength and speed.
Critics accuse him of disappearing in the playoffs, but that's not his
fault - Riley barely plays him (choosing instead to stick with the
"clutch" Starks), which makes it tough to get into a shooting groove in
the few minutes he's on the floor.
Doug Christie could have provided a slashing complement to the
outside shooting of Starks and Davis this year, but his defense was
reportedly so atrocious that Pat Riley refused to put him in any game
whose outcome wasn't already decided. He has little to no trade
value at the moment, and will likely be exposed in the expansion
draft.
POINT GUARD:
The Knicks have a dilemma here, in that they have three players
who are all good, but none are great. Derek Harper has continued to
defy age (unlike, say, Rolando Blackman) and will drive to the hoop
endlessly on smaller, weaker players (which constitutes most of the
league's point guards), then dish to an open man or bank it off the
glass. And contrary to popular belief, the handcheck rules didn't hurt
his defense in the slightest. He's a streak shooter, but has three-point
range when he's hitting. Unfortunately, despite his age, he may well
be the most immature member of the team - some say his flagrant
foul against the Pacers late in Game 7 cost us the series.
Greg Anthony matured this season and began to resemble the
fearless leader he was at UNLV - the only problem was, just as Greg
was coming into his own, Riley inexplicably chose to go with a three-
guard rotation that didn't include him. That didn't matter - Greg
played the good soldier, and still came up big when called upon. His
shot is still the ugliest-looking thing this side of Bill Cartwright, but
the thing is, it goes in now - even from downtown. He's also an
incredibly quick defender, which often gets overlooked since he
doesn't like to gamble (and thus show up in the stat column with a
lot of steals). His playmaking skills are nothing to write home about,
but the threat of his improved shot enables him to make the entry
pass to Ewing a lot easier. Rumor has it he will be exposed in the
expansion draft (along with Christie and Herb Williams), and he's the
most likely to be taken (Herb's too old and guys like Christie are a dime
a dozen).
Charlie Ward is another player who may bail out at the end of the
season. After showing a lot of promise during summer league and
preseason games, the Heisman Trophy winner discovered that he
was the Knicks 13th man, owing largely to the presence of Harper
and Anthony. Charlie is already probably the Knicks' best playmaker
(he and Monty Williams play a great two-man game), and could work
wonders in the right system. Then again, since he's had little actual
game action, it's hard to tell - Greg Anthony was a great pre-season
player his first few years, but never put it together in real games
until this year. But if either Harper or Anthony aren't moved (or
Anthony gets drafted to Canada), Ward may decide to abandon
basketball and head up north to the CFL.
AND MY SELECTION IS:
JEROME ALLEN
I realize I may be flamed for being a major-league homer, but I pick
Jerome Allen. Quite frankly, this is not as deep a draft as people
make it out to be (deep is when you can still get a halfway-decent
player when picking in the 20s, and the talent pool drops off after
about 18 this year), and rather than take a chance on a player who I
don't know much about, I'll go with 'Rome, who I've watched for the
past three years. Contrary to popular belief, he played just as much
point guard as he did shooting guard (in the Penn offense, he and
Matt Maloney were interchangeable), and his playmaking skills are
better than any of the Knick guards - Patrick Ewing would love to
have Jerome getting him the ball. He's not the stone scorer the Knicks
need, but there's nobody who fits that description at this point in the
draft, so I went for the next best thing: a player who makes those
around him into better scorers. I realize that this will exacerbate the
already huge glut at point guard the Knicks have, but Greg Anthony
is a good bet to be starting for an expansion team next season, and
Charlie Ward could be packaged with Hubert Davis (instant
backcourt) for a player or draft pick if need be.
OTHERS CONSIDERED:
It's hard to say. I wrote all of this right after the Pacers made their
pick, as I'm going away for the weekend, and came up with a list of nine
players (since there were nine picks left, including mine) in order of
preference. Most of these guys have already been taken by the time this
pick has been made, but here's what the list was, including whoever got
picked.
Jerome Allen - already a better playmaker than any Knicks guard
Lou Roe - a 'tweener, but could be a good scorer
Larence Moten - too skinny, but could score
Eric Williams - best true small forward available
Junior Burrough - possible replacement for Mason and/or Bonner
Kurt Thomas - see above
Cory Alexander - if he recovers from injuries, potential is great
Scotty Thurman - frees up Hubert Davis as trade bait
Donald Williams - see above
WHO THEY'LL PROBABLY TAKE:
Nobody. Their first round pick was traded away in 1992 for Rolando
Blackman, in a deal that was termed a "steal" for the Knicks at the
time. Blackman was pretty much a non-factor in his two years in
New York, and though the Knicks pick is low this year, it's a fairly
deep draft, so the Mavs probably came out ahead in the deal. Their
second-round pick is also gone, to Minnesota in the deal for Tony
Campbell. (Which makes me feel a bit silly for taking all the time
to make this pick. )
OTHER MOVES THEY SHOULD MAKE:
The Knicks have two priorities this offseason: Riley and Mason. Dave
Checketts and Ernie Grunfeld need a decision from Riley fast on
whether he wants to stay or be let out of his contract - if they wait
too long, they may lose Mason to a Western Conference team, and
they may miss out on some of the top coaching candidates.
If Riley stays, the first priority is to get him an assistant who can do
for the offense what Dick Harter did for the defense. As I mentioned
above, Riley's offensive schemes are stuck in the stone age, and
assistant coach Jeff VanGundy is more of a tutor than anything else;
he helps guys work on their shooting and ballhandling, but probably
wouldn't be great if asked to devise an offense.
If Riley goes, I'm not sure whether the Knicks should go the "talented
assistant" route or dip into the college ranks. VanGundy isn't nearly
ready to take over the reins. Paul Silas, who was a Knick assistant
until Chuck Daly stole him for the Nets, is probably the assistant
coach in the league most deserving of a shot at a head coaching job,
but if Butch Beard gets canned, Silas is probably the first candidate
for the New Jersey job.
What the Knicks really need, IMHO, is a Rick Pitino-type, who has a
good tactical mind, and can keep the team motivated while keeping
the games fun. Ideally, Pitino could be enticed to come back to New
York now that his nemesis Al Bianchi is gone, but he probably won't
leave Kentucky unless he's also given the GM's job, and Grunfeld is in
no danger of being replaced. Whoever Checketts and Grunfeld choose,
he has to be able to command the respect of the players - Beard and
Randy Pfund need not apply.
As for Mason, the Knicks should try to re-sign him at any cost. If he
chooses to leave, their bench will have taken a major blow. Bonner, if
re-signed, could provide some of Mase's strength and speed, but is
really only a poor man's Mason.
If they lose both of their Anthony forwards, the Knicks top offseason
priority has to be to find some muscle on the frontline to replace
them with. The Knicks could conceivably go with a three-man
forward rotation of Oakley, Monty Williams, and Smith and be
effective, but the lack of depth could be very dangerous (especially
considering Smith's history of knee problems).
As for rebuilding, I'm not sure its possible at this point. We don't
have a draft pick in two of the next three drafts (including this one).
We really only have one player we could get equal value for - Hubert
Davis. Everyone else either has a huge contract (Oakley, Smith), is
coming off a bad year (Starks, Oakley), is old (Harper, Herb) or hasn't
played enough to get anything of real value (Monty, Ward, Christie).
Because of Ewing's balloon payment this year, we have no chance of
getting under the salary cap, and the two slots that will be opened if
Mason and Bonner leave are both under a million dollars (and,
because we're over the cap, can't be combined).
Unlike the Lakers after Magic retired or the Blazers after they lost
for the second time in the Finals - two teams that could've started
rebuilding much sooner because they had some individual talent to
trade (like Worthy and Clyde) - the Knicks really don't have many
marketable players. Quite frankly, I think the best course of action at
this point is to bring in a new coach and see what he can do with the
hand he's been dealt. Maybe some of the players will respond to him
enough that their trade value will increase - or even to the point
where a prolonged rebuilding process won't be needed.
If the Knicks are really trying to improve themselves for next season,
they could probably finagle a mid-first-rounder for Davis or Starks
(hell, the Nets would probably be stupid enough to give up the #9
pick for Davis), but unless the new Collective Bargaining Agreement
makes trades a lot easier (by getting rid of the "matching salaries"
rule), there's not much else the Knicks will be able to do right away.
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Craig Simpson - Usenet Draft Commissioner