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Denver Nuggets

With the 5th pick in the 2002 Usenet Mock Draft the Denver Nuggets select:

Drew Gooden, PF, 6'10", Kansas

Their GM is Jeffrey Burgoyne

I. Season Overview

There are two great attention grabbers present in the world. The first is the up and comer, the next new thing, the one who is going to change everyone's perception. That was the Denver Nuggets two years ago. The second attention getter is the train wreck. That is the Denver Nuggets now. It seems every NBA fan is watching this team with keen interest and rubber necks to see just how hard they will fall. Denver has turned their team into an entirely new direction, and it is not for the better

It is pretty obvious why Nuggets franchise is in the turmoil it currently finds itself in. Through 4 years of reporting on the Nuggets, I have seen a litany of moves that can only be described as counter productive and self annihilating. On one hand, they seem to want to grab younger faster athletes and build for the future. On the other hand they seem to want to grab veterans to shore up what little credibility they have left. Unfortunately, young maturing talent has been leaving (as opposed to young non-maturing non-talent) and old overpriced talent (as opposed to veteran influence) has been coming in. Denver has drafted some good young talent over the past 5 years, which is amazing considering they have been consistently trading away their top pick. Unfortunately, they have let players like Raef LaFrentz and Keon Clark go for a pittance. This has resulted in the current Nuggets team, one that is so sorely lacking in talent it is hard to see a light at the end of the tunnel.

The fact is, Denver needs to come up with a plan to build a competitive team and has to stick with that plan through all the bad times it will entail. This is not a one year plan, or a three year plan, but a plan that maps a strategy that can be employed until the team turns the corner, whether that is one year or five years. Commitment is required at the highest levels of the franchise (from the owners on down) and that commitment must be unwavering until results are produced. Through the last 4 years this team has seemed to lack direction for any length of time the plans put forward to advance the team have all been short term plans. You cannot rebuild a team in the short term otherwise every time you step forward, you seem to take a step back. Every time Denver have chosen a direction, they do not commit to stick with it beyond one year before changing. Now a complete rebuild is required as it seems quite likely that no member of the Nuggets may be with the team within two years. This building will have to come through the draft because Denver has made so many bad moves lately that few self respecting ball players would want to come to Denver as a free agent. Denver has probably made a step in the right direction when Dan Issell left this past year. I noted last year that rumors were rampant that Issell would be giving up either coaching or GM duties. Giving up both positions hopefully gives this team a chance to leave past mistakes and history behind and start to move forward. Two years ago I was a Dan Issel believer. After last year I felt he was just tired of losing and the effect of so much losing was clouding his player judgment. It does take a special coach to be able to endure the losing on a rebuilding team, and Issel does not seem to be the person.

Denver also currently has no coach, which will be very important to address. They fully expect to go through the draft with no coach in place. They want to interview a large number of candidates before making any decisions. My gut feeling is they really want Eddie Jordan out of New Jersey, but he is off limits until the Nets season is over. The question that comes to mind is why would any self respecting NBA coach or assistant coach want to go to the Nuggets? Denver may have to settle for a up and coming college coach who wants a shot at the NBA. Given that they will be completely rebuilding, having a coach that is used to working with young players may not be a bad idea. To send a message to McDyess and potential free agents, however, you would want to add a veteran respected coach. It will be interesting to see what way Vandeweghe leans in this regard. My feeling is if he brings in a relative unknown, McDyess is as good as gone. Vandeweghe recognized the importance of McDyess, however, and has asked him to be personally involved in the selection of a new coach.

And how bad is the current lineup? Consider only one player managed 50% from the field (for a whole ten game at that), no player averaging even 15 ppg, 7.6 RPG leading the team, one player above 4 assists (and only 4.1 at that) and few blocks. Quite simply this team has a huge talent gap with the rest of the league in all phases of the game, and no blue chip prospect to hang its hat on. Four years ago I stated that Denver was a team on the rise and needed some specific talents to shore up some small and obvious gaps. Posey was the perfect fit as a role player. Since then, Posey has gone from a role player to a major asset, and this is not because his game has gotten better, but because the talent has disappeared around him. Building a young team requires patience, and it seems like Issel may have a ton of patience when he is not losing (i.e. the offseason) and builds for the future, then systematically tears it down during the season when he gets tired of losing.

 

II. Positional/Player Analysis

Center

Mengke Bateer 6-11 290 26 years old, China

Bateer was the second Chinese player to move to the NBA. This happened quietly and without much fanfair. The native of Outer Mongolia was on an NBA minimum contract and was played sparingly during the year, averaging only 15 minutes in 27 games. Bateer is absolutely immense, which has caused him problems in the thin air of Denver. He simply does not have the stamina to play a full game at that elevation with his current size. Bateer did, however, show some signs that he has some skill and the tools to be an everyday NBA player. He showed a nice shooting touch, noted by his 78% FT average and 33% three point shot (albeit only 12 attempts). His overall 40% shooting however shows that he is lacking significant polish to play in the paint. His 5 blocks in almost 400 minutes is also disturbing, but generally can be explained because he cannot jump very high carrying 290 pounds with him.

Bateer has the ability to become a solid NBA backup and perhaps even a serviceable NBA center. If Denver takes the initiative to bring him back, work on his low post game and perhaps find a way to strip 20 pounds off of him, my gut feeling is they will have a decent NBA center on their hands. Given the lack of good centers in the league, this should be made a priority.

Zendon Hamilton 6-11 250 27 years old St John's

Zendon Hamilton was another minimum salary player Denver used at center when LaFrentz was traded. Managing only 15 minutes a game, he showed he could rebound and score a little. At best, unfortunately, he will be a career NBA backup. Denver should resign him just for the warm body.

Chris Andersen 6-10 220 23 years old Blinn Coll. TX (JC)

Chris Anderson was brought in last year to add a bit of depth to the center and forward position. He ended the year on the injury list, but has shown that he has some potential, although it would be better used at the PF position than the center position. He did manage to average over 3 boards in only 10 minutes of play while adding just over a block a game and 79% from the charity stripe. Unfortunately he was a poor shooter overall with no other skills to talk of. Anderson was on a minimum NBA contract and may be brought back depending on who else gets signed. If he does return, he will be lucky to get even 10 minutes a game with McDyess supposedly healthy.

Analysis - Raef Lafrentz never looked like a better center in Denver until he was traded. Denver is extremely weak at center and will find themselves full of problems against many of the bigger western teams. While their corps of centers are young, there seems to be limited upside to any of them. Bateer is probably the best prospect at this time, but he needs to slim down and learn more of the NBA game, something that will take time. I also expect to see McDyess possibly sliding over to play some center with Howard at PF, but this will only work against smaller opposition lineups. Definitely getting a center prospect in the draft is high on my mind. Unfortunately, you generally need a top 3 pick in the right draft to grab a good center prospect and Denver is not in that position. The draft choices I would consider at this position are Ming and Borchardt for the number 5 pick. At 25 I would hope to find Chris Marcus on the board.

PF

Donnell Harvey 6-8 220 21 years old Florida

Donnell Harvery has come out of college with the label of "a possible Rodman or Jerome Williams type player". He still has two years left on his rookie contract at a decent price. Harvey has been a steady player despite getting limited minutes. He averaged 18 minutes per game last year, pulling in 5 boards and shooting 50% from the field. He has room to improve his game, is still young and has upside. Therefore I believe Denver should keep him and continue to work with him for the length of his contract (next year). Hopefully he starts to break out soon and show some flashes of being a steady NBA power forward.

Antonio McDyess 6-9 245 27 years old Alabama

Two years ago McDyess looked like he had finally broken out into the all-NBA player that had been predicted for him for years. Since then his career has mirrored the fortunes of his team and his career has gone into a tailspin. Two years ago his numbers plummeted for no really good reason and last year was an injury plagued affair that turned into a nightmare for McDyess and Denver. For Denver to have any hope of winning 20 games this year they need McDyess to come back and play strong. He is the one player in the Denver lineup that can be tough to contain night in and out.

McDyess himself has some choices to make. Too often I have seen him play soft and uncaring. This does not mean he was not trying, but he seemed separated from his surroundings, almost distant. McDyess needs to get his head in the game and become a leader. McDyess's contract is also up at the end of next year and the team needs to start negotiations with him as soon as they are allowed. He is simply too good a player who will be gobbled up on the open market to let get away. Barring that, perhaps it is time to trade him for a good cheap prospect and take a chance on the free agent market with the massive cap room that would be available.

The following quote from McDyess sums up his feelings towards the team "The Nuggets have to show me a lot more than what we've been doing," McDyess said. "I've been here for four years, going on my fifth, and it just seems like nothing has got better yet. It seems like we've been taking a step back rather than a step forward." That does not sound like someone who plans on hanging around. In fact, I would not be surprised if Denver actively shopped him this year and I'm sure Vandeweghe does not want this kind of influence on his team. Choosing the right coach may convince him to stay, but at this point Denver risks losing him without getting anything in return, and as history has shown they are quite willing too trade away a good player in this situation.

Scott Williams 6-10 245 34 years old North Carolina

After 8 years on a very nice contract (at the time) Scott Williams is a free agent. It is hard to see Denver bringing him back. He has been too injury prone over the last 10 years to be counted on. The fact that he managed 41 games last year seems impossible given his injuries, although he could only drag himself out for 18 minutes a game. As usually, he played solid D and provided great rebounding, but Denver would be better off giving the minutes to one of their younger players.

Analysis : Denver will have to depend on McDyess coming back healthy. The team has so many holes at this time it would not make any sense to start the "what if's" about McDyess health or contract status. Harvey can provide the backup with Howard sliding over as well. This position would not be the one I'd be looking to fill at the draft table, but at the same time it cannot be totally ignored due to the contract status of Howard and McDyess. The draft choices I would consider at this position are Gooden and Wilcox. Drafting at 25, I would hope to see Boozer available.

SF

Ryan Bowen 6-9 227 26 Iowa

Ryan Bowen is a nice backup SF/PF in the NBA. Any team playing him in major minutes has problems, but overall he can fit in inconspicuously and add value. Boyen is not a scorer, but also will not take a bad shot. This showed by the fact he shot 48% from the field and 75% from the line. Scoring 5 ppg in 22 minutes is not very good, however. Where Bowen makes up for this is his tenacity and defense. Bowen knows his place on the floor, and plays it hard. Bowen has a player option for about 700K this year. Whether he takes it or not is yet to be seen, but I suspect he would like to stay in Denver and may try to negotiate a longer term deal.

Calbert Cheaney 6-7 217 30 Indiana

Calbert Chaney never became the NBA player many thought he was capable of being. At 30 years of age we have seen everything from Chaney that we will ever see. He is at best mediocre in all phases of the game. With Denver's glut of forwards, it is time for Chaney to move on as he is an unrestricted free agent. If he was willing to take a pay cut I can see Denver resigning him, but there is no reason to believe he fits into their long term plans.

Juwan Howard 6-9 250 29 Michigan

Once considered untradable because of his contract, Howard now has significant value to Denver. While he will eat up an astounding 20M of salary cap space this year, he is in the last year of his contract and gives Denver significant maneuverability in terms of trade value and free agent cap space for next year.

For all his negatives, however, Howard is still a fine NBA player. He will never play up to his 95-96 season which is unfortunate as that season from him was an absolute pleasure to watch. He still possesses some great all round skills and teaming with McDyess he may very well put up 18 points and 8 boards. As it will be a contract year for Howard it would not be surprising to see him have his best year since 96.

George McCloud 6-8 225 35 Florida State

George still has one year left on his contract, which will likely be his last meaningful contract in the NBA. At 35 he is on the downside of his career. Last year was one of his worst in recent memory as he shot just 36% from the field and 27% from the three point. McCloud always was a shooter and not much else. With his shooting deserting him, it is time to hang them up.

Analysis : Denver is set at the SF position. Howard is not a prototypical SF, but Posey puts in solid minutes here when Howard sits. McCloud will still provide some shooting and if Bowen comes back, this will be the deepest position on the floor. It would be nice to see a true SF put here (Butler), but unless a blue chip prospect is available in the draft, I will not be looking to draft a SF first. At the 5 position I certainly will consider Tskitishvili and Butler. At the 25 pick I would hope to find Grizzard or Jeffries available.

SG

Voshon Lenard 6-4 205 29 Minnesota

Voshon Lenard is a free agent this year and the chances of him being brought back are good. Lenard can flat out shoot the ball, as shown by his 37% 3pt FG%. As long as he is willing to play for about 1.5 million, he is a decent addition to any team. Voshon has never been much of a defensive player, nor a rebounder, passer or slasher. He just camps out at the three point line for the easy shot. That adds little value, but on a tem with such a lack of talent, he is still a useful addition.

James Posey 6-8 215 25 Xavier (Ohio)

James Posey has had an up and down time in Denver, but has been a very serviceable SG/SF for Denver. His defensive play has helped out in the west where there are a lot of good shooting guards, and his ability to rebound has helped take the pressure of the big men. The real knock on Posey is that he has been too passive, especially at the offensive end of the floor. Denver has a team option on Posey for about 1.6M this year and they will take it. This is also Posey's contract year and it is likely he may become more assertive to help cement a good second contract.

Analysis : Denver could really use a true scorer at SG, one who can hit the shot and take it to the hoop. Posey currently is the only SG signed, and he is more of a SF than a SG. A player at this position will be highly sought after by me at the draft table. Unfortunately Dunleavy, who appears to be the best fit, will probably not fall this far and this draft lacks sure fire shooting guards after him. Certainly with the 5 pick I will look at Dunleavy and Woods and perhaps Mason with the 25 pick.

PG

Carlos Arroyo 6-2 202 22 Florida International

Carlos Arroyo was a NBA minimum salary player this year that had trouble sticking with the team. Denver always said they wanted to keep him around, but he always seemed to be in danger of being the first to go when someone came back from injury. While Arroyo was well liked, the fact is he did not score a lot nor show that he could be exceptional at distributing the ball. The chances of him being back next year do not look good at this time.

Tim Hardaway 6-0 195 35 Texas-El Paso

Tim Hardaway came over from Denver in the Howard trade and promptly broke his foot, showing why his star has fallen so far. His only saving grace at this time is that his salary, at 4 million, is not too high for a player of his former stature. Denver has a buyout clause for 1M dollars and I believe they will take it depending on whom they can find to replace Hardaway. He is still far and away their best PG and to try and head into the season without a blue chip PG prospect or a proven veteran will prove very problematic in the west.

Kenny Satterfield 6-2 180 21 Cincinnati

Satterfield is really more of a SG than a PG, but PG will be where he has to play in the pros. He did try and convert last year and did a fine enough job when given a chance, but when the crunch set in (last 6 seconds of the shot clock) he still looked like a SG. Satterfield played only about half the year averaging 15 minutes a game. He pulled in 6 points and 3 assists while shooting 37% from the floor. He played for the minimum last year, and if he comes back to Denver, it will likely be for the minimum again.

Analysis : Denver could really use a PG. I will definitely be looking for a PG at the draft, but IMO one will be available at the #25 pick which may workout. At the number 5 pick Williams will not be available, yet Wagner may be too risky that high. Definitely Willaims and Wagner will be considered with the 5 pick, and Maddox, Frank Williams, Taylor and Dickau will get consideration with the 25 pick.

Quick Synopsis of player contracts :

Denver Nuggets            Date    # of      total 
Player                   signed   years     salary     misc          FA
Chris Andersen ........ 11/21/01    1      minimum                  '02
Carlos Arroyo .........   3/7/02    1      minimum                  '02
Ryan Bowen ............   8/1/00    3     $1.9 million        p-opt '02  
Calbert Cheaney .......   8/5/99    3    $6.6 million               '02
Zendon Hamilton .......   8/2/01    1      minimum                  '02
Voshon Lenard .........   7/1/97    5    $11.5 million              '02
Mengke Bateer .........  2/26/02    1      minimum                  '02
Kenny Satterfield .....   8/2/01    1      minimum                  '02
Scott Williams ........  7/28/94    7+1  $18 million+$4.65 million  '02
Juwan Howard ..........   8/5/96    7    $105 million               '03
George McCloud ........   8/3/99    4    $9.2 million               '03
Antonio McDyess .......  1/22/99    6    $67.5 million        p-opt '03
James Posey ...........  7/19/99    4     $4,866,409    rc    t-opt '03
Tim Hardaway ..........  8/22/01    3    $11.3 million        t-opt '04
Donnell Harvey ........  9/28/00    4     $4,413,866    rc    t-opt '04

Player stats :

PLAYER                    G GS  MPG  PPG  RPG  APG  OFF  DEF  TOT  AST STL BLK  TO  PF
Juwan Howard             81 72 32.5 14.6  7.6  2.1  223  389  612  169  46  47 152 265
Voshon Lenard            71 19 23.5 11.5  2.6  1.8   38  145  183  130  59  25  91 105
Antonio McDyess          10 10 23.6 11.3  5.5  1.8   18   37   55   18  10   8  20  20
James Posey              73 63 30.7 10.7  5.9  2.5  109  320  429  180 114  39 127 224
Tim Hardaway             68 16 23.5  9.6  1.8  4.1   14  110  124  278  57  10 111 109
Isaiah Rider             10  1 17.3  9.3  3.3  1.2   10   23   33   12   3   2  14  11
George McCloud           69 26 26.5  8.8  3.6  3.0   67  184  251  204  58  19 144 175
Calbert Cheaney          68 47 24.0  7.3  3.5  1.6   57  183  240  110  34  21  70 156
Zendon Hamilton          54 15 15.7  6.0  4.7  0.3  110  143  253   14  21  18  60 104
Donnell Harvey           47  4 17.9  5.7  4.8  0.8   80  147  227   37  21  24  33 115
Kenny Satterfield        36  4 15.6  5.3  1.4  3.0   17   35   52  108  31   1  53  43
Mengke Bateer            27 10 15.1  5.1  3.6  0.8   32   64   96   22  10   5  32  94
Scott Williams           41 16 18.0  4.9  5.1  0.3   82  127  209   13  17  33  35  98
Ryan Bowen               75 21 22.5  4.9  4.0  0.7  134  165  299   52  75  41  41 171
Shawnelle Scott          21 10 12.0  3.9  4.9  0.4   53   50  103    8   3   6  15  49
Chris Andersen           24  1 10.9  3.0  3.2  0.3   38   38   76    7   7  28  13  35
Carlos Arroyo            37  1 10.0  3.0  1.1  1.9   12   28   40   70  11   1  23  30

                           Field Goals      3-Point FG     Free Throws
PLAYER                     M-A      Pct    M-A      Pct    M-A      Pct  Pts  Hi
Juwan Howard             462-1005  .460    0-2     .000  261-343   .761 1185  36
Voshon Lenard            315-769   .410   89-240   .371   94-120   .783  813  29
Antonio McDyess           43-75    .573    0-0      ---   27-33    .818  113  19
James Posey              277-736   .376   67-237   .283  161-203   .793  782  33
Tim Hardaway             226-620   .365  123-354   .347   77-97    .794  652  22
Isaiah Rider              37-81    .457    6-15    .400   13-17    .765   93  28
George McCloud           206-576   .358   60-222   .270  132-163   .810  604  26
Calbert Cheaney          224-466   .481    0-4     .000   46-67    .687  494  22
Zendon Hamilton          103-245   .420    0-0      ---  118-181   .652  324  20
Donnell Harvey           108-217   .498    0-0      ---   54-90    .600  270  18
Kenny Satterfield         73-199   .367    7-27    .259   36-46    .783  189  21
Mengke Bateer             53-132   .402    4-12    .333   29-37    .784  139  12
Scott Williams            86-217   .396    0-2     .000   30-41    .732  202  16
Ryan Bowen               147-307   .479    1-12    .083   69-92    .750  364  18
Shawnelle Scott           37-75    .493    0-0      ---    8-20    .400   82   9
Chris Andersen            25-74    .338    0-4     .000   22-28    .786   72  17
Carlos Arroyo             49-111   .441    0-2     .000   13-18    .722  111  12

Notable Transactions :

Dallas Mavericks -- Acquired guards Nick Van Exel, Avery Johnson and Tariq Abdul-Wahad and center Raef LaFrentz from the Denver Nuggets for forwards Juwan Howard and Donnell Harvey, guard Tim Hardaway and a 2002 first-round pick.

This was the big trade of the year. I loved the trade because it got rid of a salary cap albatross in Abdul-Wahad and disgruntled players NVE and LaFrentz. In return Denver added Hardaway and Howard who will likely be gone as salary cap fodder soon.

III. Management and Coaching

Denver has undergone large changes in the management and coaching corps last year. Issell basically had full control of the team at the start of last year. Now he is gone and Kiki Vandeweghe is running the team as general manager. He is currently looking for a coach. As stated above, Eddie Jordan from the Nets is very high on the list. Vandeweghe seems to be in no hurry, however, and will take the time to pick a coach that will make out better with the younger players. At the moment this is a big grey spot in the Nuggets organization and an analysis next year on how this situation unfolds with a rookie GM and new coach will be interesting.

I believe Vandeweghe will have to select a respected NBA coach if he has any chance of retaining McDyess. Therefore look for Denver to pursue a handful of assistant coaches around the league that are highly respected and perhaps due for an NBA head coaching role.

IV. Previous draft notables

  • 2001 - No one
  • 2000 - Mamadou N'diaye - Traded up to draft him. He never saw action. Traded away with Keon Clark For Kevin Willis and Alex Radojevic who are both not with the team anymore.
  • 1999 - James Posey, Chris Herren Not with team.
  • 1998 - Raef LaFrentz traded to Dallas, Tyronne Lue (traded to LA with Battie for NVE)
  • 1997 - Tony Battie Overpaid backup someplace in the NBA
  • 1996 - Efthimis Rentzias (Denver traded his rights and a 2000 2nd round draft pick to Atlanta for Preist Lauderdale)
  • 1995 - Brent Barry (traded with other players for Antonio McDyess)
  • 1994 - Jalen Rose, dealt to Indiana.

The last 7 years drafts have come and gone and only 1 player drafted by the team is still with them. Given Issell controlled many of those drafts, it will be interesting to see how Vandeweghe is different. Denver has not made out well trying to draft players with raw talent and have made out better drafting polished players. Expect that trend to continue.

V. Team Needs

A whole new team is needed. This team is in such poor shape that it is hard to imagine not getting an impact player at the 5 slot in the draft regardless of the position or type of player. First and foremost, the team could use a PG or center, but that looks unlikely. With that in mind I'm really hoping to get the best impact player available regardless of position. Dunleavy, Williams and Yao fill in some of the holes in the lineup nicely but I hardly expect them to be available at the 5 slot. Drafting a PF or SF seems redundant, but if Gooden or Butler is available, they are just too talented to pass on given the status of Howard and McDyess.

I am a big fan of looking at the team as a whole and determining where they are weak in comparison to their counterparts. The fact is Denver was weak in all areas. Their shooting percentage was pretty bad, although they did take a lot of three point shots. They were not rebounding or blocking many shots. In fact, other than 3 pt shots taken, it is hard to find an area in which they were not well below league average. With this in mind it is easy to say Denver needs help in all facets of the game. This reinforces the need to draft the best player available.

VI. My selection

Drew Gooden, PF, 6'10", Kansas

This was both the toughest and most rewarding year for me to draft for Denver yet. The two previous years saw Denver having no first round pick, so there was little pressure to make the right pick. The year previous to those they had the number 17 pick and the exact player they needed fell into their lap. Thus this year I actually had to think long and hard about the choice. There were also several potential players on hand that will help the team, so I felt like a kid with his hand in the cookie jar. My preference was for a PG or a center. I felt that there was no center that had enough upside to be drafted at this position. I really wanted to go for Wagner, but at the end of the day I felt it was more prudent for Denver to take the best player available. Gooden has three years of college under his belt and is therefore more NBA ready than Wagner or other possible picks. He played at a prestigious basketball school that had a great program and he led his team into the final 4. I firmly believe those are qualities that cannot be overlooked. Gooden is also very athletic which is a real bonus playing in Denver at altitude.

Down the road, this gives Denver some options. While they are currently stocked at PF, they could easily lose both Howard and McDyess. Therefore Gooden is a great insurance policy. In fact, the team can probably make out quite well by trading one of McDyess or Howard for the C or PG they covet knowing that Gooden is waiting in the wings.

I also believe (as many scouts do) that even as NBA ready as Gooden may be, he can bulk up and become better without sacrificing his quickness. He still has some upside potential that has yet to be tapped.

VII. Who Denver will probably take

I have no real idea. Without a coach, Vandeweghe will have a lot of say and he is inexperienced enough that I do not know his style. Will he play it safe and conservative, or is he looking to make a big splash by pulling off a blockbuster deal? With two large impending FA's and two picks, he has the most tools available to spring a blockbuster deal. Then again, that may not be the best move to make as a new rookie GM because if it backfires, it can be pretty embarrassing. Vandeweghe should start off with baby steps.

If Hardaway gets bought out (Denver can pay him 1 million to leave) then that is either a sign that they will draft Wagner or are planning a bigger deal.

VIII. Other Players Considered

Michael Dunleavy - I did not expect Dunleavy to fall this far. I felt he could have filled the need for a go to scorer at SG.

Caron Butler - I expected Caron to be available, but he was not. A great talent that will be a solid addition to any team.

Dajuan Wagner - Scouts are really questioning his ability to make the transition from SG to PG, and that along with only one year at college was enough to scare me off. There are, however, no doubts that he has a ton of ability.

Qyntel Woods - The more I looked at him, the more I saw bust written all over him. His attitude seems to be in the wrong place and while his skills seem immense, he has no inclination to play D and has not played against top competition. Denver does not need any more question marks.

Nickoloz Tskitishvili - I do not think Tskitishvili is quite ready for the NBA and while he seems to have talent, he will not be Paul Gasol next year.

Curtis Borchardt - An injury prone college player, Borchardt only had one full year and while it was a good year, Curtis is a bit risky with the 5 pick. At 8 I'd gladly grab him, but at 5 I believe Gooden is a much safer pick.

Chris Marcus - A big center with upside. Still, he is expected to go in the teens which says that he still has some holes (Comish Note: Marcus pulled out of the 2002 draft).

VIII. Other moves that the team should make

Denver has the 25 pick as well. I'd try to put together a package to move down slightly in the draft. For example, the Clippers pick 8th and 12th. A trade of the 5th and 25th for the 8th and 12th may be possible and I expect that Denver could then add Wagner and Borchardt or Marcus. This would fill needs at PG and center. I believe it would be risky as those players have more question marks than Gooden, but it gives Denver a good base to build from. A lineup of Wagner/Posey/Howard/McDyess/Borchardt is big and may far well in the west. Denver could also use McDyess or Howard in a package to move up, but I expect both of them will be around for the start of the coming year.

Barring that, trading McDyess for a PG would be prudent if he does not give an inclination that he wants to stay. Then use the cap money from Howard leaving to sign a SG and this team starts to look awful good in 5 years.

Denver really has no cap room to manoeveur this year, but will next year which is unfortunate as they have some immediate holes to fill. Adding a veteran PG, a shooter for SG backup duty and a veteran center are musts, but Denver is really in no position to pick up quality players. By playing their cards right, however, they should have more than ample room to pursue one or two top flight free agent's after next year. I would use this year as a youth/pick acquirement year sacrificing veteran talent, and then trying to pick up a big name next year in the free agent market. Doing so would be risky (as Chicago learned when they got stiffed by every free agent), but given how bad the team is now, the downside risk is low.


IX. Post Draft Analysis (6/27/2002)

As Denver probably went through the biggest facelift on draft day, I feel compelled to post some post draft comments. I have not in previous years, but when you are drafting strictly in the second round, a team cannot do much.

There were basic events that moulded the Denver draft day :

1. Tim Hardaway was released.

In my report I alluded to this possibility and what it may have meant. My exact comment was "If Hardaway gets bought out (Denver can pay him 1 million to leave) then that is either a sign that they will draft Wagner or are planning a bigger deal.". My guess was that if they were going to draft Wagner, then Hardaway was likely to be released, or if they had a trade lined up that included getting a PG, then Hardaway wouldbe released. When I saw that this happened and no trade announcement I immediately thought Wagner would be going Denver.

2. Denver drafted Tskitishvili.

Unbelievably, Tskitishvili is far easier to spell than pronounce. This pick was surprising and yet not surprising for a number of reasons. Coming into the draft I felt more and more that Tskitishvili was going to be the pick (assuming the top 4 went as I though and they did). Almost every mock draft felt this way too. Make no mistake, if Gooden was available he would have been chosen over Tskitishvili, but West is no fool. I also found the pick surprising and felt the intrigue building. They had to have a deal brewing if they did not draft Wagner as it made no sense to head into the season with no PG on the roster and a weak PG list as free agents.

In my analysis of who was available in the Usenet draft, I felt Tskitishvili was not really NBA ready. Obviously Denver saw a lot they liked in him. With a number of highly chosen Europeans over the past three years making large splashes in the NBA, feel that Denver probably has made a solid move. This kid is tall, and has room to grow more and fill out a bit. He likely will be a PF in time, but likely will see minutes at SF and perhaps even center this year.

Passing on Wagner makes sense given the deal they swung. Caron Butler was also possible at this position, but I expect they felt Tskitishvili had more upside.

3. New York drafts Nene and the deal is announced. At this point I saw the light and it made sense. Denver got the solid veteran PG they wanted and the veteran center they required while adding a solid prospect at the forward position. It was pretty much a given McDyess was gone anyways.

Denver in truth gave up little. I'm not undervaluing McDyess, but the longer Denver waited to trade him, the less they were likely to get. McDyess should strive in the East where outside on Ben Wallace, he should be able to eat up most every inside defense.

What did Denver add? They required a center for the opening day roster and got him. What they will do for a center for the rest of the year after Camby gets hurt is up in the air. This is no joke. Through 6 years he has never played more than 63 games in a year. He has missed somewhere around 170 games to injuries in his career including over 50 last year. If he thought going up against the likes of the centers in the East was rough, wait until he gets Shaq, Webber and Duncan every night of the week. Regardless, he fill s the need for shot blocking and rebounding and Denver certainly is a better team with him.

Mark Jackson is a good fit in Denver. He is an unselfish safe passer who works hard and boards. I believe his professionalism will help mould Denver's two young forward prospects. Denver needed a PG, and this fills the need.

Nene Hilario is a solid prospect that has been drafted more on physical ability than polish. On the good side, he has nice size, athleticism and a wing span to rival Ming. On the downside, so did Carl Herrera and Yinka Dare. Hilario notably is extremely fit and agile, being a swimmer and soccer player. Those are two assets which will serve him well in Denver where the thin air can play havoc on players who are not in peak physical condition. He stands a good chance of being able to be a Ben Wallace type of player, intimidating on the defensive side with some offensive ability. He requires a lot of work, however, but he seems to display an attitude that I love and will make him a hard worker (Qyntel Woods would have been a top 5 pick if he had Nene's attitude. By the look of his draft position, I think my bust prediction looks pretty good).

The other aspect of the deal I liked was that Denver cleared another 5+ million from their cap space. I do not believe Denver is done yet. Watch for another deal. When I look at the team at this time, Denver has a reluctant shooter at the PG and SG positions, and a fairly soft offensive player at center. Unless Howard returns to his shooting ways of past years, Denver is really lacking players who are ready to take a shot. I expect to see them try to go after a high scoring SG.

4. Denver drafts Vincent Yarbrough in the second round. Yawn. I didn't find out until this morning because I did not stay up that late. After seeing the pick I was glad I caught the extra winks. Regardless, I thought some teams may have gotten steals in the second round, but Denver was not one of them. I have to say that for every poster child we have of "should have stayed in school" such as Jumaine Jones, you get a poster child for "should have come out early". Yarbrough probably would have went much higher if he had come out after high school and got a guaranteed contract. Vincent does the right thing and gets the shaft. I do feel sorry for him.

Yarbrough does not get a guaranteed contract and hopefully will see he has an opportunity. With Lenard, Chaney and McCloud either leaving or riding the pine, he has the chance to get some minutes and prove himself. He is not going to start, but if he plays well he will get some good contributing minutes. Yarbrough is strong is all aspects of the game and is athletic enough that if he concentrates on his defense, he could become a valuable NBA bench player/spot starter in his career and make out well.

Denver did pass on a couple of intriguing prospects. Dan Gadzuric and Carlos Boozer both have big game experience and a big body while Ron Grizzard provided some athleticism. Any of these three or Yarbrough or decent enough attempts at adding a player who will get only an NBA minimum contract if they even make the team.

Overall I am rating this draft season for Denver an A-. In terms of filling their immediate needs, which was grabbing a center and PG, they came out pretty good. They also had to restock with talent, and grabbing two relatively unknown foreign players may be the right way to go. I have no doubt they picked up talented players, and at least one of the two should pan out. Obviously a lot of work needs to be done with them, but as the team is rebuilding, that is not a big concern. It would have been nice to add Gooden and Wagner, but looking at who was available I cannot argue the moves. The one downside was losing McDyess, but it was happening anyways so Denver may as well bite the bullet and take the pain now.

I'll leave you with Kiki's comments on the draft, which I believe you'll find very enlightening on the McDyess situation and the talk leading up to the trade :

I guess probably over the last year there were periods of time where Antonio [McDyess ] expressed that he might opt out. When it struck me hard was when we had the meeting with his agent in Chicago. It wasn't real clear if Antonio would opt out for sure or not; at that point we weren't really pursuing deals yet. Last night I got a proposal from New York and we worked well into the morning hours. I called Antonio's agent and told him we had this proposal and to take a look at it. Early this morning, Antonio and his agent confirmed the deal on the phone. They stated they weren't opting out of their contract this year.

Obviously, I have been a Nuggets fan ever since I played here. When [Dikembe] Mutombo left and we got nothing for it, I wasn't going to let that happen again. I made up my mind at that point. It was in our best interest that we explore the New York opportunity. We didn't know we had a deal until basically the draft had started. There were some hiccups in the deal but we ironed everything out.

The deal is for the No. 7 pick [Nene Hilario], Marcus Camby and Mark Jackson . Camby has this year and two years left [on contract] and he also has an early termination on his last year. Mark Jackson has this year and next year with a buyout for next year.

What does this for us is we get get two young players that we really like at the No. 5 and the No. 7 spots. We get another phenomenal young player in his prime with Marcus Camby. He is fully healthy and should be rested. He has had a couple years at the center position and was part of the Knicks going to the Finals [in 1999].

And again what I think that does for us is that we maintain all of our cap space, which we worked so hard to get and we actually increase it by $5 million or $6 million. What we can do know possibly if we play our cards right is go after three nice players. What this gives us is a lot of flexibility, and we couldn't just give McDyess away. We go with a young energetic team, we have a great foundation. I talked to Antonio twice today and I want to make it clear that he did not want to be traded. He indicated he was going to leave Denver and he told us outright that he was going to opt out of his contract.

What this team is going to be is very hard-working and energetic. They are young and very talented. They are going to learn together. Our front line's looking very strong, our backcourt is looking very interesting. Hopefully we can continue to improve. We are going to build on what we did last year. Camby has checked out fine, what he had last year was a blood clot on his hip when he fell on it.