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Re: Human vs. natural influences on the environment



charliew wrote:

> Many people already admit that a carbon balance on the
> atmosphere indicates that some of the carbon is being
> absorbed by something, presumably the oceans (some carbon is
> missing in the balance).  If we don't know how this mechanism
> works, how do we know that it can't bring CO2 concentrations
> to a new equilibrium level?
> 
This, I think, is an example of where a little knowledge is
a little knowledge.   In any case, it is not a valid basis for
coming to a conclusion.   You should study Climate Change 1994
and also the latest report of Working Group I of the IPCC which go into
the details of Carbon Cycle modeling.   First, it is not true that the
oceans are the unknown part of the cycle.   There are pretty reasonable
estimates of Carbon uptake by the oceans based both on observations and
on modelling.   This is based on fairly sophisticated analysis and
detailed observations of among other things ratios of Carbon isotopes
found in different parts of the system.  There is no reason to believe
that the way the oceans take part in the Carbon cycle will change
radically.   The `unknown' part of the equation is the uptake by
the biosphere.   That is, this part is not entirely an open questions
but detailed observational evidence is not a available as it is for
other parts of the Carbon cyclde.   Also, how different parts of the
biosphere contribute in a relative sense involves considerably more
uncertainty than what is true of the rest of the Carbon cycle.   But
the uncertainties are not so large that we can expect the biosphere to
rescue us from exponentially increasing emissions through some as yet
unobserved and unexpected phenomenon.   In other words, you are making
the usual argument that since we don't know everything, we don't know
anything, and anything might happen.   Again returning to your
industrial experience, if that were really the case, engineering would
be an impossible art to practice.   It isn't because we usually are able
to proceed on the basis of partial knowledge.

  
-- 
Leonard Evens       len@math.nwu.edu      491-5537
Department of Mathematics, Norwthwestern University
Evanston Illinois



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