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Re: Human vs. natural influences on the environment



stevec@geog.ubc.ca (Steve Cumming) wrote:
>In article <32073e01.247176594@nntp.st.usm.edu>,
>Harold Brashears <brshears@whale.st.usm.edu> wrote:
>
>>Warmer oceans release more water, forming cloud cover, blockin some
>>light, and incidently trapping some IR.
>
>And it is very far from clear at present which of these processes will
>be predominant. Your mere mention of a possible negative feedback
>mechanism does not establish that it is sufficient to save anyones'
>bacon. The cloud physics and oceanography people are working on it.
>We should go to them for estimates (you and Scott both) and not play
>rhetorical games unworthy of a high school debating team.

Agreed, up to a point.  Seems to me that the proponents of the notion 
that there won't be any effect have a greater burden of proof, since
it is our planetary home they are playing with.

  [Scott Nudds]
>>>  Melted tundra rots and moves more CO2 into the atmosphere.
>>
>>Why would it rot?  Higher CO2 stimulates plant growth.
>
>It would rot because it would be warmer for more of the year, as the
>permafrost moves north. This could very well cause the enormous
>resrves of sequestered carbon that have built up in boreal peatlands
>over the past 5000 years or so to start degrading. The effect of high
>C02 levels on the growth rates of <some> kinds of plant has nothing to
>do with the case.

Hmmm, here Scott is correct and Harold is wrong.  I'm not sure the
tit-for-tat position you are describing really applies.

>>>  More forest fires, more CO2 released into the atmoshpere.
>>
>>Warmer oceans mean more water evaporated into the atmosphere,
>>resulting in more rain.  
>
>Maybe. I thought all those oceanic clouds you're so confident of would
>mainly drop their rain right back into the ocean. It matters where the
>rain falls. The Indian ocean is gulf or Carpenteria are plenty warm,
>and look at Australia.
>
>The last run of data from 4 major GCMs (1992 runs, I think) that I
>worked with predicted somewhat higher temperatures and reduced
>preciptation in much of the western Canadian noreal forest. If my
>statistical models relating climate conditions to fire probabliity are
>any good (and they seem to be much better than any previously
>published) this means that those forests will burn at much higher
>rates than in the past millenium or so. To reiterate, it really
>matters where the rain falls.

Again, Scott seems to have the upper hand.

>>It would appear that there are a host of feedback mecanisms, many of
>>which you failed to mention.  Is that because you did not know about
>>them?
>
>You seem to know about them, at least as strings of text that one
>might type. Based on the few areas where I have some specialied
>knowledge, it seems to me that you don't understand them very well.
>
>The issues involved are much to grave to permit nay of us to rummage
>through the literature looking for text-bytes that support are
>favoured ideological position.

I guess I would not agree.  The issues are certainly grave with
respect to the possible impacts of climate change, but I don't
think they are so grave with respect to reducing greenhouse
gas emissions.  See the FAQ Section of our Web site,
http://www.econet.org/awea, for a fairly detailed discussion by
one of the IPCC working groups on how CO2 emissions can be cut
without serious economic consequences.

Tom Gray
Director of Communications
American Wind Energy Association

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-----------------------------------------------------------------
Tom Gray <tomgray@econet.org>



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