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Re: fHuman vs. natural influences on the environment
In the James Burke film "After the Warming" considerable reference is made
to an event in Canada about 10,000 years ago. A pent up fresh water lake
broke free (after the ice dams that held it in place broke/melted) and
flooded the North Atlantic with fresh water. The effect on the Gulf Stream
was such to cool the earth--by 10 Degrees (I assume Fahrenheit) in the
space of ONLY 100 years. The evidence for this is primarily from ice cores
(and sorry I have no more solid references). The point made in the film
(which also chronicles other historical climatic changes) IS that large
temperature swings CAN happen in essentially a human life-time. Another
point in the film (the second half of which is a Global Warming scenario
using WORSE-CASE physical predictions and probably BEST-CASE political
reaction--and hence is VERY open to criticism) is that the great
uncertainty/lack-of-knowledge in the feedback responses of the oceans is
the Joker in the Global Warming game. Burke's conclusions, and the one
that I interpret as that of the 'third-group' types, is that it would
simply be prudent to start looking NOW at ways to reduce fossil fuel use.
This makes even more sense when faced with the other 'negative aspects' of
such use such as economic dependence, acid-rain, air-pollution, finite
reserves, etc. In the film scenario, carbon emissions are cut by 50% by
2050 (with considerable warming happening anyway--to spur on such a
reduction). The time table is adjustable but IMO, the concept is
sound--take out some insurance now by starting a slow but steady program of
reductions in carbon emissions.
Rick Tarara
charliew <charliew@hal-pc.org> wrote in article
<4ugjcq$6sc_001@pm5-42.hal-pc.org>...
> Admittedly, there are events which have altered the
> atmosphere's temperature. However, if the probability is
> almost nil over one lifetime, I do not consider these events
> to be particularly relevant. Regarding your statement that
> global warming is going to happen over one or two lifetimes,
> there are a couple of questions that may impact what we want
> to do about it.
>
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