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Re: fHuman vs. natural influences on the environment



tomgray <tomgray@igc.apc.org> wrote:
>All locked up and nowhere to go <cage@critech.com> wrote:
>>The numbers are in the same ballpark?  Really?  This is news to me.
>>Stabilizing emissions at 1990 levels would not be extremely difficult.
>>It was my impression that reducing them to the point where they are
>>equal to the sinks is quite another matter.  It is always the first
>>increment that is easiest and cheapest to get, and the last fraction
>>is horribly difficult and expensive.
>
>Hmmmm.  Well, I don't seem to have the numbers handy, but the source
>is a report from IPCC Working Group II released in November of last
>year.  The working group provided five scenarios for "deep reductions
>of CO2 emissions" and said "[W]ithin the wide range of future energy 
>prices, one or more of the [scenarios] would plausibly be capable of 
>providing the demanded energy services at estimated costs that are 
>approximately the same as estimated future costs for current >conventional energy."  More is available in the FAQ section of our 
>Web site at http://www.econet.org/awea  .

Oops, my mistake, I read too hastily.  The "deep reductions" consist
of a 2/3 cut in CO2 emissions, from roughly 22 billion tons/year
worldwide today to 7 billion tons/year by 2100.  The scenarios
allow for population growth from 5.3 billion today to 10.5 billion
in 2100, and project economic growth to 25 times 1990 levels by 2100.

I trust this will give some idea of the degree to which economic
wellbeing is *NOT* dependent on continued emissions of carbon
dioxide.

Tom Gray
Director of Communications
American Wind Energy Association

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-----------------------------------------------------------------
Tom Gray <tomgray@econet.org>



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