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Grain Supply Update: Oct. 25
Grain Supply Update: October 25, 1996
Food: Shrinking Lands and Sinking Yields
(c) Geri Guidetti, 1996
As the data from this season’s grain and soybean harvests continue to
roll in, I thought we might take a look at the most significant
challenge we face in our efforts to thwart food scarcity in our futures.
Up until 1981, our efforts to produce ever-greater grain harvests to
accommodate ever-increasing populations relied on the expansion of land
under cultivation, that is, we brought more land under the plow to feed
more mouths. But 1981 was actually a watershed year on the global
grain front. It was after that year that a new era in global
agriculture began; for the first time, and ever since that year, humans
met their increasing needs for food on a decreasing land base.
How? Increased yields of crops grown in the same amount of space met
most of the needs for increased food supplies. Yes, more land was
brought under cultivation, but it in no way accounted for the vast
increases in food supply that have been meeting global demand. The
greater part of that demand has been met by two factors: the
introduction of new super-yielding grain varieties, and the application
of ever-increasing amounts of fertilizer to support these impressive
yields. Together they have sustained the nearly miraculous output of
the so-called Green Revolution.
Today, for the first time in human history, increased grain production
to feed a global population expanding by 1.7 million people per week –
yes, per week –
depends entirely on increasing the yield of individual plant varieties.
What’s more, currently available grain varieties have already peaked in
their yield capacities; no amount of additional fertilizer applied to
the field will increase yields dictated by the limits of the plants’
genetics. In fact, fertilizer use has decreased globally as growers are
increasingly recognizing these limits.
But why worry, we might ask, since science has consistently baled us out
with ever more impressive new varieties, right? Wrong. There is,
indeed, a global push to find genes among wild and heritage grain
varieties that might offer us some hope of creating yet more productive
plants, but there are simple truths we all must come to terms with now:
since 1985, grain yields have not kept up with global grain demand;
since 1990, yields have flattened and even fallen for some grains; from
1993-95, the gap between global demand for grain and the supply has been
met by drawing down global grain reserves.
Between 1982 and 1993, the amount of grain in the global savings bank
could feed the world for an average of 81 days. Since 1993, this
reserve has been drawn steadily and steeply downward. As of 1995, there
were an estimated 48 days worth of food in the kitty. This year, 1996,
some analysts estimate as low as 22 days were left before this year’s
harvest began. Given the increases in demand resulting from a year’s
global population growth, along with the greater demand created by the
growing wealth of developing countries, projections for 1997’s ending
reserves are already looking dismal. You might say, we are only
producing and harvesting enough grain to keep the food pipeline filled
for current needs , but have no appreciable fallback should there be a
catastrophic crop calamity or other natural or man-made disaster. This
should be as sobering to us as individuals as it already is to world
governments and their agricultural entities.
The grain markets continue to respond to supply and demand pictures on
a day-to-day, often hour-to-hour basis. Last week , prices for wheat,
corn and soybeans sank as word of better than expected harvests swept
the trading pits. Then came Hurricane Lilli and a big Midwest storm, and
prices were up again. Yesterday’s Wall Street Journal reports that "the
weather is expected to muddy corn fields and slow farmers’ harvest
activity as well as interfere with further ‘drying down’ of corn
acreage. Harvest progress is already behind schedule for corn, meaning
that tight near-term grain supplies will likely remain tight." That’s
the opposite of last week’s dominant sentiment.
Soybean futures likewise rose, this time on reports that China had,
indeed, bought up large supplies of soybeans. You may remember I
suggested you watch for confirmation of this rumor a couple of weeks
ago. Wheat, on the other hand, is decreasing in price as U.S. exports
have been declining recently. You may remember the fungal problems we’ve
had with our wheat this year. Understandably, China wants no part of
contaminated wheat.
If there is one word to define the current state of the global food
supply, I would suggest "vulnerable"— vulnerable to extreme weather
patterns, diminishing irrigation water reserves, growing resistance of
insects to available pesticides, plant disease outbreaks among nearly
identical plant varieties, growing loss of prime agricultural land – the
list goes on. The supply of food should be a personal as well as global
issue. Despite our current and accustomed comfort, future food scarcity
is inevitable....Geri Guidetti, The Ark Institute
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