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Grain Supply Update: Oct. 25



Grain Supply Update: October 25, 1996

Food: Shrinking Lands and Sinking Yields
(c)  Geri Guidetti, 1996

As the data from this season’s grain and soybean harvests continue to 
roll in,  I thought we might take a look at the most significant 
challenge we face in our efforts to thwart food scarcity in our futures. 
 Up until 1981, our efforts to produce ever-greater grain harvests to 
accommodate ever-increasing populations relied on the expansion of land 
under cultivation, that is, we brought  more land under the plow to feed 
more mouths.   But 1981 was actually a watershed year on the global 
grain front.  It was after that year that a new era in global 
agriculture began;  for the first time, and ever since that year, humans 
met their increasing needs for food on a decreasing land base. 

How? Increased yields of crops grown in the same amount of space met 
most of the needs for increased food supplies.  Yes, more land was 
brought under cultivation, but it in no way accounted for the vast 
increases in food supply that have been meeting global demand.  The 
greater part of that  demand has been met by two factors: the 
introduction of new super-yielding grain varieties, and the application 
of ever-increasing amounts of fertilizer to support these impressive 
yields.  Together they have sustained the nearly miraculous output of 
the so-called Green Revolution. 

Today, for the first time in human history, increased grain production 
to feed a global population expanding by 1.7 million people per week – 
yes, per week –
depends entirely on increasing the yield of individual plant varieties. 
 What’s more, currently available grain varieties have already peaked in 
their yield capacities; no amount of additional fertilizer applied to 
the field will increase yields dictated by the limits of the plants’ 
genetics.  In fact, fertilizer use has decreased globally as growers are 
increasingly recognizing these limits.

But why worry, we might ask, since science has consistently baled us out 
with ever more impressive new varieties, right?  Wrong.  There is, 
indeed, a global push to find genes among wild and heritage grain 
varieties that might offer us some hope of creating yet more productive 
plants, but there are simple truths we all must come to terms with now: 
 since 1985, grain yields have not kept up with global grain demand;  
since 1990, yields have flattened and even fallen for some grains;  from 
1993-95, the gap between global demand for grain and the supply has been 
met by drawing down global grain reserves.  

Between 1982 and 1993, the amount of grain in the global savings bank 
could feed the world for an average of 81 days.  Since 1993, this 
reserve has been drawn steadily and steeply downward.  As of 1995, there 
were an estimated 48 days worth of food in the kitty.  This year, 1996, 
some analysts estimate as low as 22 days were left before this year’s 
harvest began.  Given the increases in demand resulting from a year’s 
global population growth, along with the greater demand created by the 
growing wealth of developing countries,  projections for 1997’s ending 
reserves are already looking dismal.  You might say, we are only 
producing and harvesting enough grain to keep the food pipeline filled 
for current needs , but have no appreciable fallback should there be a 
catastrophic crop calamity or other natural or man-made disaster.  This 
should be as sobering to us as individuals as it already is to world 
governments and their agricultural entities.

 The grain markets continue to respond to supply and demand pictures on 
a day-to-day, often hour-to-hour basis.  Last week , prices for wheat, 
corn and soybeans sank as word of better than expected harvests swept 
the trading pits. Then came Hurricane Lilli and a big Midwest storm, and 
prices were up again.  Yesterday’s Wall Street Journal reports that "the 
weather is expected to muddy corn fields and slow farmers’ harvest 
activity as well as interfere with further ‘drying down’ of corn 
acreage.  Harvest progress is already behind schedule for corn, meaning 
that tight near-term grain supplies will likely remain tight."  That’s  
the opposite of last week’s dominant sentiment. 

Soybean futures likewise rose, this time on reports that China had, 
indeed, bought up large supplies of soybeans.  You may remember I 
suggested you watch for confirmation of this rumor a couple of weeks 
ago.  Wheat, on the other hand, is decreasing in price as U.S. exports 
have been declining recently. You may remember the fungal problems we’ve 
had with our wheat this year.  Understandably, China wants no part of 
contaminated wheat.

If there is one word to define the current state of the global food 
supply, I would suggest  "vulnerable"— vulnerable to extreme weather 
patterns, diminishing irrigation water reserves, growing resistance of 
insects to available pesticides, plant disease outbreaks among nearly 
identical plant varieties, growing loss of prime agricultural land – the 
list goes on.  The supply of food should be a personal as well as global 
issue.  Despite our current and accustomed comfort, future food scarcity 
is inevitable....Geri Guidetti, The Ark Institute
****************************************************************Build 
Your Ark!  How to Prepare for Self-Reliance in Uncertain Times...
Book I: Food Self-Sufficiency     http://www.lis.ab.ca/walton/geri.html
Grain Supply Updates:    http://www.lis.ab.ca/walton/geri1.html
Ark’s Seminars on Food Self-Sufficiency are now available in the U.S. 
*This report may be reprinted if both copyright and Sig. File remain 
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