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Re: fHuman vs. natural influences on the environment



In article <4vn20n$9h3@igc.apc.org>, tomgray 
<tomgray@igc.apc.org> wrote:

>- Ocean current circulation may shift until the climate in 
Europe
>is like that in Canada.  This would be an economic disaster. 
 I've
>mentioned this before, and you haven't gone on and on about 
it
>like you have about species extinction.  Why?

Hey,

I have a compulsive personality type, and you "caught my eye" 
with the comments about climate change and species 
extinction.  I'll take a valium and settle myself down so we 
can get back to other issues.

>
>- Floods and droughts resulting from changes in evaporation 
and
>rainfall patterns could seriously disrupt global 
agriculture.
>
>- Tropical diseases appear very likely to spread (the World 
Health
>Organization and World Meteorological Organization have 
already
>issued a report warning about the consequences).
>
>- Temperate and boreal forests could be damaged by 
temperature
>changes, accelerating natural CO2 production and increasing 
warming
>beyond the levels predicted.  (It's worth remembering, the 
IPCC
>prediction is as likely to be wrong on the low end as on the
>high.  What if we wind up with a 3.5 degree C (6.3 degree F) 
>average warming by 2100?  Do you seriously think this is not
>something we should alter our course to avoid?)

You will get more agreement here than you expect.  I 
absolutely agree that we should avoid a 6 deg F increase in 
global temperatures.  However, we currently have no data to 
suggest that this is going to happen.  Until we get a better 
idea of how much effect our carbon dioxide emissions are 
having, I am advocating an approach where we keep observing 
and working on the computer models.  Since the effect is 
taking so long to develop, and since the entire public is now 
aware of the "problem", I can assure you that there is time 
to act if the problem is anywhere close to bad.  Relax a bit. 
The end is not near at this point in time.



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