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Re: Human vs. natural influences on the environment



tomgray <tomgray@igc.apc.org> wrote for all to see:

>brshears@whale.st.usm.edu (Harold Brashears) wrote:
>>kowens@teleport.com (Jeff Owens) wrote for all to see:
>>
>>[edited]
>>
>>>There are thousands of subjects we do not have full understanding
>>>of, but that should not stop people from trying.  Knowledge is
>>>gained by suggesting a model and then trying to disprove it.
>>>The real issue here is: do we have enough information to suggest
>>>models.  The answer from the scientific community is a clear YES.
>>
>>While I think it is always worth it to build models and to test them
>>(otherwise, I would have been in some other business), I do not
>>believe that means we must act on the output of these models at this
>>time.  If you have some reason to believe that the models under
>>discussion are accurate, tell everyone about those reasons.
>
>Well, far be it from me to quarrel with anyone's religious beliefs.

You have a religious belief we can quarrel with?  If so, please take
it to alt.nutty.people, not here.  

>I don't know that a strong belief in models is required, though, to
>simply note that we are clearly changing atmospheric CO2 concentrations
>and therefore the earth's energy balance.  

The second part of your sentence need not follow the first, unless
this is that religious belief you were alluding to in the beginning?

>There are some very
>sophisticated (actually sophistical is more accurate) arguments about
>which this will not hurt and everything will be cool, but so far, they
>appear to hold quite a bit less water than the models.

"hold water"?  I don't mind the models.  Were it not for mathematical
models, I would not have my current job, for sure.  What I essentially
request is a model which successfully predicts today's climate from
input prior to today.  Here "today" is not intended as a 24 hour
event, incidentally.

I have no doubt that we want to minimize CO2 in the atmosphere, and
further no doubt that wind will be a competitive technology (though I
would not want to live next to a wind farm).  But the more accurate
projections we are beginning to see do not persuade me we need any
kind of emergency approach to the problem.

Regards, Harold
------
"By September 1979, all important life in the sea was extinct. 
Large areas of coastline had to be evacuated...  A pretty grim 
scenario. Unfortunately were a long way into it already...based 
on projections of trends already appearing..."
   - Paul Ehrilich, Environmental Handbook, 1970, pp 174



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