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Re: Human vs. natural influences on the environment
tomgray <tomgray@igc.apc.org> wrote for all to see:
>brshears@whale.st.usm.edu (Harold Brashears) wrote:
>>kowens@teleport.com (Jeff Owens) wrote for all to see:
>>
>>[edited]
>>
>>>There are thousands of subjects we do not have full understanding
>>>of, but that should not stop people from trying. Knowledge is
>>>gained by suggesting a model and then trying to disprove it.
>>>The real issue here is: do we have enough information to suggest
>>>models. The answer from the scientific community is a clear YES.
>>
>>While I think it is always worth it to build models and to test them
>>(otherwise, I would have been in some other business), I do not
>>believe that means we must act on the output of these models at this
>>time. If you have some reason to believe that the models under
>>discussion are accurate, tell everyone about those reasons.
>
>Well, far be it from me to quarrel with anyone's religious beliefs.
You have a religious belief we can quarrel with? If so, please take
it to alt.nutty.people, not here.
>I don't know that a strong belief in models is required, though, to
>simply note that we are clearly changing atmospheric CO2 concentrations
>and therefore the earth's energy balance.
The second part of your sentence need not follow the first, unless
this is that religious belief you were alluding to in the beginning?
>There are some very
>sophisticated (actually sophistical is more accurate) arguments about
>which this will not hurt and everything will be cool, but so far, they
>appear to hold quite a bit less water than the models.
"hold water"? I don't mind the models. Were it not for mathematical
models, I would not have my current job, for sure. What I essentially
request is a model which successfully predicts today's climate from
input prior to today. Here "today" is not intended as a 24 hour
event, incidentally.
I have no doubt that we want to minimize CO2 in the atmosphere, and
further no doubt that wind will be a competitive technology (though I
would not want to live next to a wind farm). But the more accurate
projections we are beginning to see do not persuade me we need any
kind of emergency approach to the problem.
Regards, Harold
------
"By September 1979, all important life in the sea was extinct.
Large areas of coastline had to be evacuated... A pretty grim
scenario. Unfortunately were a long way into it already...based
on projections of trends already appearing..."
- Paul Ehrilich, Environmental Handbook, 1970, pp 174
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