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Re: The Limits To Growth



Scott Susin <ssusin@emily11.Berkeley.EDU> wrote:
>
> How long has fish farming been around for?  Shouldn't we be able 
> to look at historical prices and tell if it's making much difference?
> 

Large-scale fish farming will become practical if and when demand pushes
prices to appropriate levels.  It may never happen if we keep producing
cheaper rice, grain, chicken, and other staples at the rate of the past few
decades.

People who claim we'll empty the oceans of fish, then turn around and cry
doom over exponential models of human growth, are amusing.  Even heavily
overfished areas can be restored in a very few years; such areas become
incredibly fertile breeding grounds. Competition and predators decrease,
while food supply increases.  Larger, slower-breeding fish will decline in
demand as lower-priced, more efficient species dominate the market.

If and when fish farming predominates, and we abandon the hunter-gatherer
system of ocean use,  expect to see the same sort of production increases
land agriculture has shown.  As an example, let me quote some statistics on
a food staple for many years, the potato:

Year		Yield/Acre (in 1000 lbs)
1500's		2 (estimated)
1920		7.5
1950		16.5
1960		20.8
1970		24.6
1985		27.5

Tremendous increases, although the curve is obviously approaching an
asymptote.  Rice, another staple, has recently seen the introduction of new
high-yield species and is increasing along similar lines.   Dozens of
companies are creating new species of fruits and vegetables; expect another
yield explosion here within the next decade.

Agricultural productivity is a major influence in living standards.  When
the average farmer could produce only enough food to feed one family, the
entire world must farm (A situation very close to ancient history, where
even politicians and warriors were required to farm, lest they starve.) 
The declining number of American farmers-- so bemoaned in certain
segments-- is actually symptomatic of the heath of the nation's
agricultural sector.  Food production is increasing faster than population
levels.

As an aside, I will note that the majority of agricultural land in the
world is farmed with low-tech inefficient methods.  Expantion of the use of
modern agriculture, new species, and good infrastructure, can more than
double world food production.  All without an additional acre being farmed,
though, in the US at least, agricultural land usage has been on the decline
for many years.   Perhaps you have some statistics here?

--
Mike Asher
masher@tusc.net

"Economists quote their GNP predictions to the 1/10 point to show they have
a sense of humor..."
     - Unknown.





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