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Re: The Limits To Growth



bg364@torfree.net (Yuri Kuchinsky) wrote:

>People who deny the reality of overpopulation also prevent any action that
>may address this problem. Thus they are responsible to a certain degree,
>some more than others. McCarthy not to the same degree as the Pope who is
>perhaps the biggest criminal. 
 
Population is under control.  The relative birth rate has been
delining since 1969-70, and the absolute number of births has been
declining since 1986 or so.  The number of new mothers will start to
decline in the next five years, and the total number of possible
mothers a few years after that.   
 
The number of children per mother has been in sharp decline every
where for a generation, and in Kenya, Uganda and Nigeria, the highest
net-reproduction-rate countries, for the last twenty or so years.
 
Everywhere that television and the cosmetics industry arrive, the
birth rate drops.  As a result it is extremely likely that our
population will be stable within 50, and probably within thirty years.
 
More detailed numbers on birth rates to date are available from the
Federal Reserve gopher at Minneapolis.  A good looking piece of
software for trying alternate scenarios with actual to-date numbers is
available cheap from the IIASA in Vienna, and there are good facts on
their website.
 
                                      -dlj.



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