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Re: The Limits To Growth



"Don Dale" <dale@princeton.edu> wrote:

>Jason McGinnis wrote,
>
>>The statements by Mr. Purchase are a perfectly logical example of the
>>logical system accepted by environmentalists, biologists, etc. used to
>>determine impacts and relationships within an environment, called Life
>>Cycle Analysis.  LCA's are the only logical way to determine the true
>>benefits and problems of a system or product.
>
>The statements by Mr. Purchase were a classic textbook example of "post
>hoc, ergo propter hoc" logical fallacy.  If this is "the logical system
>accepted by environmentalists, biologists, etc. used to determine impacts
>and relationships within an environment," well, that's the saddest thing
>I've heard in a long, long time.

It's not sad at all. Consider the pesticide example which is being
discussed; everything over the course of their life from they way in
which they are developed, to what is involved in their manufacture, to
the way they are distributed and applied, and the impacts they will
have on people and land for years to come are taken into
consideration. As Mr. Purchase put it in reference to people's focus
on just the increasing yields, "I think this part of a larger
picture."

This is nothing new, similar principles are used in economics all the
time. When a product is being developed, you don't just calculate how
much it costs to make, add a percentage and then sell it. R&D costs,
overhead, etc. are all evaluated and worked into the price. If you
know that 2% of the units will fail before the warranty is up and will
have to be replaced, this also is considered and worked into the
price. If you think you'll probably be sued for millions sometime in
the future, you try your hardest to change the product so that you
won't be. Evaluating a product's 'price' to society should be be given
no less attention.

I wouldn't suggest that worldwide cancer rates are rising because of
pesticides, but the negative impacts they cause to our health and
environment are well documented. Elements which compensate for these
impacts - such as advances in medicine - may also change the larger
picture, but they don't affect the balance within the life cycle of
the pesticides themselves.


Jason McGinnis



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