JULY, 17, 1941
Memorandum for the Chief of Staff:
Subject: Mobilization of Additional Japanese Manpower.
1. Prior to the resignation of the Japanese Cabinet, July 16, 1941, a large scale mobilization was started in Japan under unusual conditions of secrecy. This mobilization is continuing.
2. The Military Attache in Tokyo reports that a part (strength unknown) of this new force is being shipped to Manchoukuo to join the Kwantung Army.
3. In view of the fact that the major part of the Japanese Army is pinned down in China without a large mobile reserve and the further fact that the Siberian Army is about twice the size of the Kwantung Army (20 30 Divisions to 12), the strengthening of the Japanese force in Manchoukuo appears to be a logical precautionary procedure.
4. Whether she moves south or north Japan needs more men.
5. In the opinion of this Division the first aggressive move, if made, will be into Indo-China to deny this region to a DeGaulist Pro-British, Pro-American faction steadily growing in power there. Japan, while building up her strength in Manchoukuo, will then await the outcome of the German-Soviet War. If
and when Germany crushes European Russia and the Siberian Garrison deteriorates in strength or morale, Japan will probably move in to seize the long desired Maritime Provinces of Siberia.
Brigadier General U. S. Army
Acting Assistant Chief of Staff, G-2.
Copy to War Plans Division.
(EXHIBITS OF THE JOINT COMMITTEE, PHA, PT. 14, EXHIBIT NO. 33 MILITARY INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES PREPARED BY G-2, WAR DEPARTMENT)