October 16, 1941.
Memorandum for the Chief of Staff:
Subject: Fall of the Japanese Cabinet.
1. A United Press dispatch states that the three months old Konoye Cabinet resigned on October 16th under nationalistic pressure for termination of Japanese-American peace negotiations.
2. This resignation was the logical result of Foreign Minister Toyoda's failure to secure a relaxation of the economic pressure on Japan by the U. S. Government.
3. It is impossible to predict the next move on the part of Japan until the composition of the next cabinet is known. It is highly probable, however, that the trend will be toward the Axis, with the Army, rather than the Navy, exercising the controlling influence. This Army element will not be slow to take advantage of any weakening of the Siberian Army brought about by Russian reverses in Europe.
(signed) Sherman Miles
Brigadier General, U. S. Army,
Acting Assistant Chief of Staff, G-2.
Secretary of War Coordinator of Information
Under Secretary of War State Department
Assistant Secretary of War General Embick
Assistant Chief of Staff, WPD Director of Naval Intelligence
(EXHIBITS OF THE JOINT COMMITTEE, PHA, PT. 14, EXHIBIT NO. 33 MILITARY INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES PREPARED BY G-2, WAR DEPARTMENT)