[173]    Communication Intelligence Summary, 2 December 1941
General.-The most prominent factor in today's traffic is the apparent  confusion in the routing of traffic for certain major parts of the  Japanese Fleet. There were instances where the same dispatch was  repeated several times after it appeared on the Tokyo broadcast and also  where Takao Radio received the same dispatch that it had previously  sent. ComSixteen reported Second and Third Fleets in Takao area and that  Takao Radio was broadcasting traffic to these fleets. This broadcast was  not uncovered here and contrary to location reports, there was one  indication that these two fleets were not close to Takao. In several  instances Takao Radio forwarded traffic to Tokyo for these fleets.  Summing up all reports and indications, it is believed that the large  fleet made up of Second, Third and First Fleet units has left Empire  waters but is either not close enough to Takao for good communication or  is proceeding on a course not close to Takao. The change of calls on  December first has prevented this office from making definite statements  at this date of the units now in the Southern area. To further  complicate the situation, Shanghai Radio handled a considerable mount of  traffic which obviously was originated by and destined for units in the  Takao area. The Chief of Staff, South China area continues to appear in  Shanghai ComSixteen reported nine submarines proceeding south by Camranh  Bay. This group is believed to comprise both Submarine Squadrons five  and six, which units normally operate with the First Fleet but have been  included repeatedly in the Second Fleet Task Force for Southern  operations.
There was a very high percentage of high precedence traffic originated  both by major forces afloat and Tokyo. Hainan continues as a prominent  address. Palao and Third Base Force is holding the same relative  importance.
First Fleet.-Despite the lack of positive identification, the First  Fleet appears relatively quiet. From inconclusive evidence, it appears  as if there may have been a split in the original or normal Combined  Fleet Staff and that these may be two supreme commanders with staffs. As  an example, traffic routing indicates one Combined Fleet call associated  with the Second and Third Fleets and apparently in company while another  Combined Fleet call appears not associated with the Second and Third  Fleets.
Second Fleet.-No units have stood out prominently the last two or three  days.  This is partly due to lack of new identifications but contributes  somewhat to the belief that a large part of the Second Fleet is underway  in company. Cruiser Division Seven and Destroyer Squadron Three are  unlocated and unobserved since change of calls.
[174]  Third Fleet.-Nothing to report. Shanghai appeared in an indirect  way in some of the Third Fleet traffic.
Mandates.-Association of Submarine Force and Fourth Fleet continues.  Some traffic for Fourth Fleet units still going through Truk.
Carriers.-Almost a complete blank of information on the Carriers today  Lack of identifications has somewhat promoted this lack of information-  however, since over two hundred service calls have been partially  identified since the change on the first of December and not one carrier  call has been recovered, it is evident that carrier traffic is at a low  ebb.
Combined Air Force.-This force continues to be associated closely with  Second, Third and Indo-China Fleets. Some units of the Combined Air  Force have undoubtedly left the Takao area.