Subject: Re: Introduction

From: [email-masked] (Don Bowen)
Date: Wed, 15 Mar 1995 13:43:26 -0800

>Mike Mayer wrote:

>The following are just some of the problems that we are largely ignoring:
>
>1.The statistics on human population growth is mind boggling Look closely
at >Mexico as a microcosm of the
>world. Try to figure out how this population rate can be fed.
        Even the air polution in Mexico City is hazardous.  There is little
more to the sewer system than the ground outside.  When this raises as dust,
it becomes life threatning.

>2.America, the "world's breadbasket." Examine how we produce food in the USA.
>
>a. Are we going to
>tell the world that they can't use energy at the rate we do? The oil
>reserves will increasingly deplete. I don't want to hear about the shale
>reserves. The energy to extract is prohibitive. What's going to happen to
>an agricultural system based on petroleum in the very near future?
        One point I recently heard is that there is not enough iron reserves
in the earth to give the rest of the world the same level of automobile
ownership we have.  What is going to happen as the price continues to rise
and the denate is wether to use oil for fertilizer for the third world or to
use it to power our cars.

>d.Arable land. Each year less arable land is available to food production
>because of desertification, erosion, and development pressures, yet the
>world's population continues to rise. 20% of American food is grown in
>California's Central Valley. Blessed by climate and ample irrigation water,
>"the desert was made to bloom."  The point is, irrigation is a splendid
short-term
>solution for growing food. Its a disaster waiting to happen for those that
>try to depend on it long-term.
        The battle now is wether to send the water to the farmers to grow
rice and cotton (among other things) or to send it to the cities for green
lawns and swiming pools.  Many farmers are selling subsidized water to the
cities for huge profits.

>f.The Green Revolution.
        THe people of the green revolution were trying to feed a starving
population.  Some like Burgland (sp?) tried to talk about population growth
but no one listened.  They were feeding a world with massive energy inouts
with the hope that some time in the future it would not be needed.  

        Current world popluation and food relationship is much like the old
cartoon.  It showed a large car at a filling station.  The attendent was
filling the tank and telling the driver to "shut it off, you're gaining on me."

>h.Wheat traders.
        I have heard that in any given moment the world is less than a month
from mass starvetion.  Due to the year round production of grains and
relative cheap transportation this is held off.  Look what happens if the
delivery system is stopped such as in many parts of Africa.

>Urbanites and Homesteaders will find a wealth of information from the
>previously posted:
>
>Bountiful Gardens Seeds
>18001 Shafer Ranch Road
>Willits, CA 95490

        I am basing when I start on a vacation this summer on the hours of
this place.  I think it is closed on Sun and Mon.  I am leaving work early
on Friday so I can be there on Saturday.

  Donald E. Bowen           [email-masked]
  Valley Center CA.         [email-masked]

  Software Engineer, woodworker, historian, beekeeper, farmboy
  model railroader, 1936 Farmall 12, 1966 Corvair CORSA 140 convertible
  1 wife, 3 kids, 2 acres, 2 cats, 2 dogs, ? projects,  no TV, 24 hours

---

From: Mike Mayer <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 15 Mar 1995 16:27:39 -0600 (CST)

On Wed, 15 Mar 1995, Don Bowen wrote:

Be careful with attributions - I didn't write any of the text you quoted. 
I'll have a go at answering some of your points, though.

> use it to power our cars.

Well, there is scrap iron. And cars have alot more aluminum, fiberglass 
and plastic in them now.

> filling the tank and telling the driver to "shut it off, you're gaining on me."

Overall you are painting an alarmist view of the world and the world food 
supply. While there are great problems in production and distribution of 
food in third world countries, it is mainly due to the governments there 
- not necessarily overpopulation. Areas like the Ukraine will probably 
increase production if the government there gets out of the way. 
Otherwise why are certain countries permanently "developing" - look at 
them and their governments - Brazil, for example, its the government that 
was encouraging people to settle in the rain forest and slash and burn.

Even in the US the government contribute to the problems. They encourage
farm expansion and single-crop farming by providing loans, crop insurance
and price supports. In the absence of these subsidies many farmers would
stay out of debt and diversify. While there are problems I don't think
there will be a sudden crash. If soil is becoming depleted and water
ruunning out (both of which I don't deny) they will happen gradually and
cause a gradual reduction in yield over a number of years. As the supply
from depleted areas goes down, other areas will be planted. There are
large areas that can grow wheat that have been taken out of production,
and could be put into production due to the higher return on wheat.

Same goes for any other commodity. As the supply runs low the price goes 
up. When the price is high enough, sources that weren't profitable before 
become profitable and alternatives are found.
==============================================================================
 Mike Mayer                     (414) 751-3557           [email-masked]