Subject: Outlook for U.S. agricultural exports summary, 12.4.96

From: [email-masked] (Andy Nachbaur)
Date: Thu, 5 Dec 1996 00:24:00 GMT

Date: Wed, 4 Dec 96 16:42:34 EST
Subject: Outlook for U.S. agricultural exports summary, 12.4.96

OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS--SUMMARY
 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board           December 4, 1996
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788.  The complete text of OUTLOOK FOR
U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS (AES-12) will be available 2-3 working days
following release of this summary.
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FISCAL 1997 AGRICULTURAL EXPORT FORECAST
REDUCED TO $55.5 BILLION

The fiscal 1997 forecast for U.S. agricultural exports is reduced to $55.5
billion, $2.5 billion lower than projected in August, and $4.3 billion less
than 1996.  Sharp declines in expected prices for wheat, coarse grains, and
soybeans account for most of the reduction.  Increased foreign production and
higher competitor exports of wheat and coarse grains has resulted in reduced
prospects for U.S. shipments since August.  Although soybean export volume is
expected to rise, much lower prices due to the large domestic crop and improved
foreign production prospects have reduced expected soybean and product exports.

Total export volume is expected to decline to 146.7 million tons, and major
bulk exports are forecast at 104.9 million tons, 14 million less than in 1996.

High-value product (HVP) exports are expected to rise by almost $2 billion to a
record $33 billion in 1997. This will account for nearly 60 percent of U.S.
agricultural exports.  Although prospects for livestock products have declined
since August, exports of these commodities are still forecast at a record $8.7
billion.  Record poultry meat and horticultural exports are also expected.

U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal 1997 are forecast at a record $34 billion,
$2 billion higher than projected in August.  Animal and horticultural products
are expected to provide the boost to imports in 1997.  The fiscal 1997
agricultural trade surplus is projected at $21.5 billion, down $4.5 billion
>from  the August projection, and $5.9 billion less than the record $27.4-billion
surplus in 1996.

          Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1992-1997
______________________________________________________________________________
                         -- Year ending September 30 --
         : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal :     Forecast
Item     :  1992  :  1993  :  1994  :  1995  :  1996  :    Fiscal 1997
         :        :        :        :        :        :   Aug.  :   Dec.
___________________________________________________________________________
         :                      -- Billion dollars --
         :
Exports  :         42.5   42.7    43.9    54.6   59.8    58.0    55.5
         :
Imports  :         24.3   24.5    26.4    29.6   32.4    32.0    34.0

_______________________________________________________________________________
Trade    :
 balance :         18.2   18.2    17.5    25.0   27.4    26.0    21.5
         :
______________________________________________________________________________

         :                     -- Million metric tons --
Export   :
 volume  :        143.6  146.4   127.5   169.7  158.4   150.5   146.7
         :
______________________________________________________________________________
This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the November 12, 1996, World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

            Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports:  Value by commodity, 1994-97

______________________________________________________________________________
                             :  Fiscal  :  Fiscal  :  Fiscal  :     Fiscal 1997
      Commodity              :   1994   :   1995   :   1996   :      Forecast
                             :          :          :          :     Aug. : Dec.

______________________________________________________________________________
                             :              --Billion dollars--
Grains and feeds 1/          :    13.285   17.637   21.553    18.7     16.4
  Wheat & flour              :     4.228    5.201    7.032     4.8      3.9
  Rice                       :      .891    1.050    1.004      .9       .9
  Coarse grains 2/           :     4.569    7.411    9.338     8.6      7.3
    Corn                     :     3.817    6.619    8.369     7.6      6.5
  Feeds and fodders          :     2.150    2.511    2.627     2.9      2.7
                             :
Oilseeds and products        :     6.976    9.119    9.670    10.4      9.8
  Soybeans                   :     4.161    5.274    6.312     6.7      6.4
  Soybean meal               :     1.013    1.079    1.305     1.3      1.3
  Soybean oil                :      .433     .809     .272      .5       .4
                             :
Livestock products           :     6.343    7.808    8.067     9.3      8.7
  Beef, pork & variety meats :     3.206    4.044    4.343     5.1      4.9
  Hides & skins, incl. furs  :     1.380    1.719    1.677     1.7      1.7
Poultry & products           :     1.718    2.210    2.730     2.9      3.0
Dairy products               :      .810     .812     .719      .5       .7
Tobacco, unmanufactured      :     1.260    1.329    1.393     1.4      1.4
Cotton & linters             :     2.306    3.496    3.028     2.4      2.1
Seeds                        :      .618     .680     .727      .7       .8
Horticultural products 5/    :     8.542    9.657   10.029     9.8     10.5
  Fruits & preparations      :     3.047    3.263    3.319     3.5      3.5
  Vegetables & preparations  :     2.169    2.538    2.423     2.6      2.6
  Tree nuts & preparations   :     1.124    1.108    1.374     1.3      1.3
Sugar, tropical, and other   :     1.998    1.912    1.888     2.0      2.0
                             :
   Total 3/                  :    43.856   54.637   59.804    58.0     55.5
______________________________________________________________________________

          Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports:  Volume by commodity, 1994-97

______________________________________________________________________________

                             :   Fiscal  :  Fiscal  :  Fiscal  :      Fiscal
                                                                       1997
      Commodity              :    1994   :   1995   :   1996   :      Forecast
                             :           :          :          :     Aug.: Dec.

______________________________________________________________________________

                             :            --Million metric tons--
Wheat                        :    31.132   32.094   33.716    25.0     21.5
Wheat flour                  :     1.037    1.184     .470     1.0       .5
Rice                         :     2.438    3.767    2.831     2.3      2.3
Coarse grains 2/             :    39.845   65.670   58.656    58.0     56.0
   Corn                      :    33.057   58.645   52.681    51.5     49.5
Feeds & fodders              :    11.797   13.483   12.065    13.0     12.8
Oilseeds and products        :    24.154   34.050   30.759    30.8     32.7
  Soybeans                   :    16.364   23.584   22.372    22.3     23.7
  Soybean meal               :     4.859    6.094    5.445     5.2      5.7
  Soybean oil                :      .694    1.216     .450      .8       .8
Beef, pork & variety meats   :     1.025    1.262    1.410     1.6      1.5
Poultry meat                 :     1.364    1.901    2.330     2.5      2.6
Animal fats                  :     1.324    1.725    1.376     1.8      1.6
Cotton & linters             :     1.639    2.068    1.703     1.5      1.4
Horticultural products       :     6.595    7.041    7.139     7.5      7.5
Other                        :     5.191    5.438    5.917     5.5      6.3
   Total agriculture         :   127.541  169.683  158.372   150.5    146.7
   Major bulk products 4/    :    91.418  127.183  119.278   109.1    104.9
_______________________________________________________________________________
 1/ Includes pulses and corn products.  2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum,
oats, and rye.  3/ Totals might not add due to rounding.  4/ Includes wheat,
rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton.  5/ Revised, contains essential oil
items not included in the August forecast.

The full text of OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS will be available in
about a week. For further information contact Joel Greene at (202) 219-0816.

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