Subject: Outlook for US Agricultural Exports, 9.06.96

From: [email-masked] (Andy Nachbaur)
Date: Sat, 7 Sep 1996 00:51:00 GMT

*FYI* Information you would never ask for but may find of value.
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OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS                       September 6, 1996
             Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is published four times a year by the
Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC
20005-4788.  AES-11.  Please note that this release contains only the text of
OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS--tables and graphics are not included.

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The Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports is published in February, May,
August, and November/December.  The next quarterly summary is scheduled for
release on December 4, 1996.

This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the August 12, 1996, World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

 Coordinator (ERS):

Joel Greene (202) 219-0816

Commercial Agriculture Division
Economic Research Service (ERS)

      Coordinators (FAS):

Michael Dwyer (202) 720-3124
Ernest Carter (202) 720-2922

Trade and Economic Analysis Division
Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)
U.S. Department of Agriculture
Washington, D.C. 20250

The forecasts in the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports are based on
information provided by the following analysts in the Commercial Agriculture
Division of the Economic Research Service and in the Commodity Divisions of the
Foreign Agricultural Service.  Editorial support is furnished by Martha R.
Evans, Information Services Division, ERS.  All telephone numbers are area code
202.

ERS:  Karen Ackerman (Export Programs, 501-8511); Ronald Gustafson (Beef, 219-0
848); Mildred Haley (Pork, 219-0833); David Harvey (Poultry, 219-0839); John
Love (Horticultural Products, 219-1268); Stephen MacDonald (Cotton, 219-1179);
Stacey Rosen (Food Aid, 501-8445); Mark Simone (Wheat, 219-0487); Carolyn
Whitton (Coarse Grains and Rice, 219-0825).

FAS:  Peter Burr (Tobacco and Seeds, 720-9497); Alan Holz (Oilseeds, 720-0143);
Linda Kotschwar (Grains and Feeds, 690-4134); Dee Linse (Export Programs, 720-9
847); Nancy Morrison (Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry, 720-8252); Debra Pumphrey
(Horticultural and Tropical Products, 720-8899); Anita Regmi (Cotton, 720-9510)
.

Regional information can be provided by the following analysts in the
Commercial Agriculture Division, ERS:  Chris Bolling (Brazil, 219-0668); Nancy
Cochrane (Central and Eastern Europe, 219-0650); Hunter Colby (China, 219-0669)
; Frederick Crook (Hong Kong, 219-0002); John Dyck (Japan and South Korea,
219-0698); Anwarul Hoque (South Asia, 219-0665); Sophia Wu Huang (Taiwan, 219-0
679); Elizabeth Jones (European Union, 219-0619); Daniel Plunkett (Mexico,
219-0670); Sharon Sheffield (Former Soviet Union, 219-0019); Jim Stout (Canada,
219-0678); Tina Valdecanas (Southeast Asia, 501-6133).

Contents

Summary
Commodity Highlights
Economic Outlook
Regional Highlights
U.S. Agricultural Export Programs
Import Highlights

Tables

Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years 1992-97
Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports:  Value by commodity, 1994-97
Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports:  Volume by commodity, 1994-97
Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports:  Value by region, 1994-96
Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports:  Value by commodity, 1994-97
Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports:  Volume by commodity, 1994-97
Table 7--U.S. agricultural imports:  Value by region, 1994-96

Summary

FISCAL 1997 AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS FORECAST AT $58 BILLION,
FISCAL 1996 UNCHANGED AT $60 BILLION

The fiscal 1997 projection for U.S. agricultural exports is $58 billion, $2
billion lower than the forecast for fiscal 1996, which is unchanged at $60
billion.  Although prices will remain strong, lower expected shipments of
wheat, coarse grains, and cotton will reduce export value for these commodities
by nearly $4 billion in 1997.  Oilseed exports are projected to increase nearly
$800 million because of higher expected soybean and meal prices and increased
soybean oil shipments.  Livestock, poultry, and horticultural product exports
are expected to gain more than $1 billion.

Tight bulk supplies and increased exports by competitors will reduce major bulk
export volume from 120.2 million tons to 109.1 million in 1997.  Total volume
will decline to 150.5 million tons.

U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal 1997 are projected at a record $32 billion,
$500 million higher than expected in fiscal 1996.  Imports are revised upward
$1 billion to $31.5 billion in 1996 because of increased horticultural and
animal product imports.

The fiscal 1997 agricultural trade surplus is projected at $26 billion, down
$2.5 billion from the revised fiscal 1996 forecast.

_____________________________________________________________________

Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1992-1997
_____________________________________________________________________

                    -- Year ending September 30 --

        :Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Forecast    :  Fiscal
 Item   : 1992  :  1993  :  1994  :  1995  :Fiscal  1996 :   1997
        :                                   May :   Aug. : Projected
_____________________________________________________________________

         :                      -- Billion dollars --
         :
Exports  : 42.3   42.5     43.5     54.1      60.0   60.0    58.0
         :
Imports  : 24.3   24.5     26.4     29.5      30.5   31.5    32.0
         :
______________________________________________________________________
Trade    :
 balance : 18.0   18.0     17.1     24.6      29.5   28.5    26.0
______________________________________________________________________

         :                     -- Million metric tons --
Export   :
 volume  :143.6  146.4    126.8    169.2     160.4  160.0   150.5
______________________________________________________________________

Commodity Highlights

The August forecast for fiscal 1996 exports of U.S. wheat and flour remains
unchanged from the May forecast of 32.5 million tons valued at $6.9 billion.
In fiscal 1997, wheat and flour exports are projected to decline 7 million tons
and $2.1 billion to 26 million tons valued at $4.8 billion.  This projected
decline is due to reduced volume and lower export prices.  Tight domestic
supplies, much larger exportable supplies from major competitors, and reduced
global import demand will lower U.S. exports.  Wheat flour exports are
projected at 1 million tons as lower wheat prices are expected to boost sales.

The forecast for fiscal 1996 coarse grain shipments is reduced 300,000 tons
>from  May's forecast to 61.1 million tons.  However, export value remains
unchanged at $9.5 billion.  U.S. corn exports are forecast at 55 million tons
valued at $8.6 billion, down 500,000 tons but value is unchanged.  These
revisions are due to the slower pace of shipments than previously expected as
some late season purchases were switched to lower-priced new crop.  However,
tight old crop supplies have kept prices strong and the overall export value
>from  falling.  Higher sorghum exports are expected to partially offset lower
corn exports.

Fiscal 1997 coarse grain exports are projected to drop 3.1 million tons and
$900 million to 58 million tons valued at $8.6 billion.  The prospect of a
smaller than earlier anticipated 1996/97 U.S. corn harvest will limit export
supplies, cutting corn exports 3.5 million tons to 51.5 million tons.  Reduced
export volume and somewhat weaker prices are projected to lower U.S. corn
export value $900 million to $7.6 billion.  Global corn production and ending
stocks are projected to rise slightly during the 1996/97 marketing year.  U.S.
sorghum exports are projected to increase in response to a larger domestic crop
and increased foreign demand.

The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. rice exports remains unchanged from May's
forecast at 3 million tons valued at $1.1 billion.  Fiscal 1997 U.S. rice
exports are projected to fall 700,000 tons to 2.3 million tons, mainly in
response to lower domestic production (especially long-grain rice) as less
acreage is planted.  Export value is projected to slip $200 million to $900
million as higher prices partially offset lower export volume.  Prices are
expected to strengthen in fiscal 1997 as domestic long-grain rice supplies
tighten.  Competition from Asian rice should intensify as U.S. prices rise, but
demand in Latin American markets is expected to remain strong for U.S. long-gra
in rice.  Japan is expected to import more medium-grain rice to fulfill its
GATT minimum access obligations.

The forecast for fiscal 1996 exports of oilseeds and products is raised 700,000
tons and $200 million from the May estimate to 30.8 million tons valued at $9.6
billion.  This is due to the unanticipated strength of soybean and soybean meal
exports, each raised 400,000 tons from the previous forecast.  Prices have
remained high because of the high price of grains.  China's continued absence
>from  the market as a buyer forced a downward revision in U.S. soybean oil
exports to 500,000 tons valued at $300 million.

The fiscal 1997 forecast for U.S. exports of oilseeds and products is 30.8
million tons, unchanged from fiscal 1996.  However, export value is raised $800
million to $10.4 billion largely due to higher export prices for soybeans and
soybean meal and higher soybean oil exports.  Higher prices reflect lower
projected global oilseed supplies and lower ending stocks.  U.S. oilseed
production for 1996/97 is forecast to rise 6 percent from last year's level,
however exportable supplies are projected to remain tight due to low carryin
stocks.  China is expected to enter the world market as a major buyer of
vegetable oils, and U.S. soybean oil exports are projected to increase to
800,000 tons valued at $500 million.
______________________________________________________________________________

Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports:  Value by commodity, 1994-97
______________________________________________________________________________

                            : October-June : Fiscal : Fiscal 1996 : Fiscal
Commodity                   :1994/95 :95/96: 1995   :  Forecast   :   1997

                            :        :     :        : May : Aug.  : Projected
______________________________________________________________________________

                                            --Billion dollars--

Grains and feeds 1/          : 12.555 16.314   17.637  22.0  21.8   18.7
  Wheat & flour              :  3.596  4.923    5.201   6.9   6.9    4.8
Rice                         :   .820   .773    1.050   1.1   1.1     .9
Coarse grains 2/             :  5.137  7.430    7.411   9.5   9.5    8.6
    Corn                     :  4.559  6.709    6.619   8.6   8.5    7.6
Feeds and fodders            :  1.893  2.032    2.511   2.9   2.8    2.9
                             :
Oilseeds and products        :  7.309  7.757    9.119   9.4   9.6   10.4
  Soybeans                   :  4.253  5.159    5.274   6.1   6.2    6.7
  Soybean meal               :   .844   .935    1.079   1.1   1.2    1.3
  Soybean oil                :   .721   .241     .809    .4    .3     .5
                             :
Livestock products           :  5.787  6.291    7.808   8.6   8.7    9.3
  Beef, pork & variety meats :  2.904  3.434    4.044   4.7   4.7    5.1
  Hides & skins, incl. furs  :  1.297  1.260    1.719   1.6   1.7    1.7
Poultry & products           :  1.618  1.996    2.210   2.7   2.7    2.9
Dairy products               :   .588   .563     .812    .8    .7     .5
Tobacco, unmanufactured      :  1.116  1.173    1.329   1.5   1.4    1.4
Cotton & linters             :  3.126  2.788    3.496   3.0   3.1    2.4
Seeds                        :   .560   .586     .680    .7    .7     .7
Horticultural products       :  6.956  7.080    9.110   9.4   9.3    9.8
  Fruits & preparations      :  2.425  2.454    3.263   3.4   3.3    3.5
  Vegetables & preparations  :  2.014  1.865    2.538   2.5   2.4    2.6
  Tree nuts & preparations   :   .830  1.008    1.108   1.2   1.3    1.3
Sugar, tropical, and other   :  1.451  1.496    1.940   1.9   2.0    2.0
                             :
   Total 3/                  :  41.066 46.044  54.141  60.0  60.0   58.0
__________________________________________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________________

         Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1994-97
___________________________________________________________________________

                             : October-June :Fiscal: Fiscal 1996: Fiscal
      Commodity              : 1994/95:95/96: 1995 :  Forecast  :  1997
                             :        :     :    : May : Aug.   :Projected
___________________________________________________________________________

                             :             --Million metric tons--
                             :
Wheat                        : 22.907  23.405 32.094 32.0  32.0    25.0
Wheat flour                  :   .894    .340  1.184   .5    .5     1.0
Rice                         :  3.017   2.227  3.767  3.0   3.0     2.3
Coarse grains 2/             : 47.418  48.125 65.670 61.4  61.1    58.0
   Corn                      : 42.085  43.591 58.645 55.5  55.0    51.5
Feeds & fodders              : 10.147   9.574 13.483 13.5  12.9    13.0
Oilseeds and products        : 27.629  25.066 34.050 30.1  30.8    30.8
  Soybeans                   : 19.267  18.557 23.584 22.0  22.4    22.3
  Soybean meal               :  4.800   4.043  6.094  4.9   5.3     5.2
  Soybean oil                :  1.089    .399  1.216   .7    .5      .8
Beef, pork & variety meats   :   .912   1.097  1.262  1.5   1.5     1.6
Poultry meat                 :  1.373   1.720  1.901  2.3   2.3     2.5
Animal fats                  :  1.344   1.148  1.725  1.7   1.6     1.8
Cotton & linters             :  1.863   1.562  2.068  1.7   1.7     1.5
Horticultural products 4/    :  5.470   5.416  7.001  7.2   7.1     7.5
Other                        :  4.071   4.552  4.999  5.5   5.5     5.5
   Total agriculture         :127.045 124.232 169.204 160.4 160.0 150.5
   Major bulk products 5/    : 94.472  93.876 127.183 120.1 120.2 109.1
______________________________________________________________________________

 1/ Includes pulses and corn products.  2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum,
oats, and rye.  3/ Totals might not add due to rounding.  4/ Products measured
in liters not included.  5/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and
cotton.

The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. cotton exports remains unchanged at 1.7
million tons, but export value is adjusted slightly upward $100 million to $3.1
billion.  In fiscal 1997, U.S. cotton exports are projected to fall 200,000
tons and $700 million to 1.5 million tons valued at $2.4 billion.  U.S. cotton
production is expected higher in 1996/97.  However, U.S. cotton exports will
face increased competition as production in other supplier countries, such as
Argentina and Australia, increase.  World cotton trade is expected to decline
due to significant reductions in imports of cotton by China.

The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. exports of livestock, poultry, and dairy
products is unchanged at a record $12.1 billion.  Minor adjustments in the
forecasts for hides and skins and dairy products reflect changes in the pace of
sales to date.  In fiscal 1997, U.S. livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are
projected to rise $600 million to a record $12.7 billion.  A projected gain in
poultry and product exports is offset by a projected loss in dairy products,
while livestock products are projected to increase $600 million to a record
$9.3 billion.  Japan, South Korea, and Russia remain the major markets for U.S.
beef and pork exports, which are projected to rise 70,000 tons and $400 million
to 1.6 million tons valued at a record $5.1 billion.  This relatively modest
increase reflects lower beef prices and import policy uncertainties in Russia.
An improved outlook for animal fats and live cattle accounts for most of the
remaining projected increase in livestock product exports.  Supported by an
estimated 200,000-ton increase in poultry meat exports, poultry and product
exports are projected to increase $200 million to a record $2.9 billion.
Russia and China/Hong Kong are expected to remain the top markets for U.S.
broiler meat and account for most new sales.

Minor adjustments to the fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. horticultural exports
brings the total to $9.3 billion, $100 million lower than the May forecast.
The forecasts for fruit and vegetables were each lowered $100 million to $3.3
billion and $2.4 billion, respectively.  The tree nut forecast was raised $100
million to $1.3 billion.  The slower pace of sales to Japan, Canada, and Mexico
slowed the overall gain for the entire category to 2 percent this year.
However, Mexico has shown strong signs of recovery since January.  During the
first half of calendar 1996, U.S. horticultural exports to Mexico were up 16
percent in value led by fresh apples and pears, fresh potatoes and frozen
french fries, and pecans.

The fiscal 1997 forecast for U.S. horticultural exports is a record $9.8
billion, a $500-million increase over fiscal 1996.  With increases of $200
million each, fruit and vegetable exports are projected to reach records of
$3.5 billion and $2.6 billion, respectively.  Tree nut exports are expected to
remain unchanged at $1.3 billion.  This 5 percent increase in total
horticultural exports assumes that sales to Mexico continue their current pace
of recovery, exports to Canada benefit from the progressive lowering of duties,
steady growth to key Asian Pacific Rim markets continues, and no significant
appreciation in the dollar against the yen which would slow sales to Japan.

                                 Economic Outlook
The outlook for 1997 world real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected
to improve to 3 percent, up from an estimated 2.5 percent in 1996.  Much of the
increase is due to economic gains in the EU-15 and Japan, which are projected
to grow at 2.5 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively.  Canada's GDP is likely
to rise 2.5 percent, while the United States gains 2.1 percent.  Economic
growth in East and Southeast Asia is expected to slow from an estimated 7.7
percent in 1996 to 7.2 percent in 1997.  China is expected to lead the region
with growth of 8.5 percent.  Economies in Latin America are expected to grow 4
percent, led by Mexico.  Mexico's GDP is expected to rise 3.7 percent, compared
with less than 2 percent in 1996.  During the first half of 1996, the real
trade-weighted value of the U.S. dollar has gained compared with its trading
partners, and is at the 1990 level.
______________________________________________________________________________

        Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1994-96 1/
______________________________________________________________________________

                             :   October-June     :  Fiscal  :  Fiscal 1996
        Region               : 1994/95 :  1995/96 :   1995   :    Forecast
                                       :          :          :  May  :  Aug.

______________________________________________________________________________

                                          --Billion dollars--

  Western Europe             :  6.927    7.739      8.781      9.4      9.5
    European Union 2/        :  6.665    7.469      8.416      9.0      9.1
    Other Western Europe     :   .262     .270       .365       .4       .4
  Central and Eastern Europe :   .248     .312       .306       .3       .4
  Former Soviet Union        :   .843    1.250      1.158      1.6      1.6
    Russia                   :   .679     .926       .911      1.3      1.3
  Asia                       : 18.106   20.300     23.980     27.6     26.9
    Japan                    :  7.792    9.199     10.450     12.0     12.2
    China                    :  1.895    1.515      2.412      2.5      2.0
    Other East Asia          :  5.671    6.243      7.560      8.3      8.3
      Taiwan                 :  1.943    2.169      2.552      2.8      2.9
      South Korea            :  2.647    2.924      3.575      4.0      3.9
      Hong Kong              :  1.072    1.148      1.425      1.5      1.5
    Southeast Asia           :  1.956    2.782      2.582      3.8      3.7
      Philippines            :   .494     .679       .675       .9       .9
    South Asia               :   .793     .561       .976      1.0       .7
      Pakistan               :   .341     .298       .341       .4       .3
  Middle East                :  1.821    2.003      2.426      2.7      2.6
      Israel                 :   .337     .486       .462       .6       .7
      Saudi Arabia           :   .367     .424       .486       .6       .6
  Africa                     :  2.239    2.328      2.988      3.2      3.0
    North Africa             :  1.606    1.628      2.111      2.3      2.1
      Egypt                  :   .991     .074      1.378      1.4      1.5
      Algeria                :   .396     .269       .461       .4       .3
    Sub-Saharan Africa       :   .633     .700       .877      1.0       .9
  Latin America              :  6.005    7.354      8.103      8.9      9.8
    Mexico                   :  2.735    3.741      3.699      4.4      5.0
    Other Latin America      :  3.270    3.613      4.404      4.5      4.8
      Brazil                 :   .547     .374       .638       .4       .4
      Venezuela              :   .367     .345       .496       .4       .4
  Canada                     :  4.441    4.418      5.836      5.9      5.8
  Oceania                    :   .435     .339       .562       .4       .4
                             :
       Total                 : 41.066   46.044     54.141     60.0     60.0
                             :
  Developed countries        : 19.933   22.181     26.092     28.3     28.6
  Developing countries       : 18.148   20.786     24.173     27.3     27.4
  Other countries            :  2.986    3.077      3.876      4.4      4.0
______________________________________________________________________________
 1/  Country totals are adjusted for transshipments through Canada.
 2/  Austria, Finland, and Sweden are included in the European Union.

Regional Highlights

The outlook for Mexico and China are significantly revised compared with the
May forecast, but most other regions are little changed.  The forecast for
Latin America is revised upward $900 million because of increased exports to
Mexico and strong exports to other countries.  The forecast for U.S. exports to
Asia is lowered $700 million to $26.9 billion because of reduced exports to
China and South Asia.  Japan is expected to import a record $12.2 billion.
Exports to Taiwan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia will also reach records.

Exports to Mexico are revised upwards to a record $5 billion because of very
strong sales since January 1996.  Exports through June 1996 reached nearly $3.8
billion, surpassing the fiscal 1995 total.  The United States has already
shipped a record $2 billion worth of bulk commodities in the first 9 months of
fiscal 1996 because drought has boosted import demand in Mexico.  Wheat exports
were nearly 1 million tons, corn over 5 million tons, and soybeans 1.7 million
tons.  Exports of high-value products (HVP) are beginning to gain after
dropping sharply at the end of 1995.  HVP exports should surpass fiscal 1995 as
shipments of meats, fruit, and vegetables advance, and exports of soybean meal,
vegetable oils, and planting seeds are much stronger than in 1995.

U.S. exports to China in fiscal 1996 are revised down $500 million to $2
billion.  Increased domestic production of wheat, coarse grains, oilseeds, and
cotton during the 1995/96 marketing year has reduced China's demand for
imports, and prospects for greater production of grains in 1996/97 has further
slowed China's fiscal 1996 purchases.  Through the first 9 months of fiscal
1996, U.S. exports totaled $1.5 billion, nearly 20 percent lower than a year
earlier.  Although bulk commodities dominate U.S. exports to China, shipments
of red meat, poultry meat, hides and skins, vegetables, and sugar-related
products continue to expand in 1996.

U.S. Agricultural Export Programs
The Export Enhancement Program and the Dairy Export Incentive Program

On July 18, 1996, USDA announced Export Enhancement Program (EEP) and Dairy
Export Incentive Program (DEIP) allocations for July 1996 through June 1997.
EEP allocations were announced for sales to 75 countries totaling 18.4 million
tons of wheat; 49 countries totaling 500,000 tons of wheat flour; 23 countries
totaling 1.6 million tons of barley and malting barley; 33 countries totaling
150,000 tons of barley malt; 27 countries totaling 225,000 tons of rice; 32
countries totaling 498,290 tons of vegetable oils; 27 countries totaling 32,955
tons of frozen poultry; and 7 countries totaling 25.6 million dozen eggs.  In
fiscal 1996 to date, 11,125 tons of frozen poultry have been sold under EEP.
Bonuses totaled $5.15 million.  Activity has been limited due to market
conditions and there are no active programs under the EEP at this time.

DEIP allocations are available for sale to 112 countries totaling 100,222 tons
of nonfat dry milk; 97 countries totaling 9,971 tons of whole milk powder; 111
countries totaling 38,611 tons of butterfat; and 109 countries totaling 3,669
tons of cheddar, Feta, Gouda, cream, mozzarella, and processed American
cheeses.  DEIP sales in fiscal 1996 to date totaled 47,447 tons of dairy
products with a total DEIP bonus of $20.1 million.

CCC Export Credit Guarantee Programs

Export credit guarantee program sales continue strong in fiscal 1996.  As of
August 16, export credit guarantee program (GSM-102 and GSM-103) sales--based
on exporter applications received by the CCC--were $3 billion, up 26 percent
>from  fiscal 1995 sales for the same period.  Importers in Mexico continue to
account for almost one-half (46 percent) of program sales.  High grain prices
have boosted the value of bulk commodities guaranteed under GSM-102 and 103.
Eighty-five percent of credit guarantee sales are to importers of bulk
commodities--wheat, feed grains, oilseeds, and cotton.  Finally, in past years,
typical credit terms guaranteed under GSM-102 were for 36 months.  In fiscal
1996, as of August 16, 50 percent of GSM-102 sales reflect credit terms of 18-2
4 months, and 10 percent involve credit terms of 12 months or less.

U.S. Food Aid Programs

The U.S. Food for Peace program, or Public Law 480 (P.L. 480), uses
appropriated funds to provide U.S. agricultural assistance to countries at
different levels of economic development.  The P.L. 480 program is comprised of
three titles.  Title I is administered by USDA, while Titles II and III are
administered by the U.S. Agency for International Development (AID).

P.L. 480 appropriations for fiscal 1996 are estimated at $316.3 million for
Title I; $821.1 million for Title II; and $50 million for Title III.  While
this marks only a 5-percent decline in value from fiscal 1995, total commodity
shipments for 1996 are expected to fall even more steeply as 1996 wheat prices
climb to record levels.

As of August 26, P.L. 480 Title I and Food for Progress agreements have been
signed with 21 countries, with allocations totaling $288.4 million.  These
funds provided about 889,000 tons of commodity assistance, nearly 60 percent of
which is wheat.  The Food for Progress programs signed with Albania, Georgia,
Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, accounted for $61 million of this total.
Allocations totaling $48 million have been announced, but not signed, with
Angola, Congo, El Salvador, Jordan, Moldova, Sri Lanka, and the Philippines.
When all agreements are signed, Title I and Food for Programs are expected to
provide about 1 million tons of commodity assistance to 23 countries.

Approximately 40 percent of the Title II appropriations are for Sub-Saharan
Africa, with Liberia and Rwanda expected to receive large emergency shipments.
Of the Title III funds, $25 million have been allocated to Ethiopia and $10
million to Haiti.

Import Highlights

U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal 1997 are projected at a record $32 billion,
$500 million higher than in fiscal 1996.  Small gains are expected for most
import categories, but imports of tropical products are likely to remain near
1996 levels due to lower expected prices.  Imports in fiscal 1996 are revised
upward $1 billion to $31.5 billion largely due to increased imports of
livestock and dairy, horticultural products, and cotton.  Imports during the
first 9 months of fiscal 1996 rose more than 8 percent to $24.3 billion.

High U.S. hog prices in fiscal 1996 have led to record hog imports from Canada,
reaching $164 million through June 1996, and raising live animal imports to
$1.5 billion.  Higher prices for cheese and casein has boosted dairy imports.

Fiscal 1996 U.S. horticultural imports are revised upward $400 million to $10.9
billion because of strong gains in vegetable and beer and wine imports.  Strong
potato and tomato shipments and higher prices for tomatoes during the third
quarter of fiscal 1996 account for the increase.  Wine and beer imports from
the EU-15 continue strong, and wine imports from Chile have also risen.

Cotton imports will reach the highest level in over 75 years because the
competitiveness provisions of the U.S. marketing loan program for cotton have
resulted in opening import quotas every week since November 1995.  However,
significant quantities of cotton have only been imported since March 1996.
Imports are not expected to fill the available quotas of over 500,000 tons, and
during October-June, imports totaled 44,000 tons.  Imports for the cotton
marketing year August 1995-July 1996 are expected to reach nearly 82,000 tons,
1996/97 imports are projected higher.  New quotas will continue to open as long
as the U.S. price in Northern Europe remains at least 1.25 cents per pound
above the average price for cotton in Northern Europe.

_______________________________________________________________________________

          Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports:  Value by commodity, 1994-97

_______________________________________________________________________________

                          :  October-June    : Fiscal : Fiscal 1996 :  Fiscal
Commodity                 :1994/95: 1995/96  :  1995  :   Forecast  :   1997
                          :       :          :        :  May : Aug. : Projected
_______________________________________________________________________________

                          :                 --Billion dollars--

Animals and products      : 4.493   4.355     5.926      5.4    5.7     5.9
  Live animals            : 1.292   1.167     1.655      1.4    1.4     1.4
 Red meats                : 1.777   1.651     2.332      2.1    2.1     2.2
  Dairy products          :  .743    .848     1.046      1.0    1.1     1.2
                          :
Horticultural products    : 7.688   8.734     9.906     10.5   10.9    11.1
  Fruits, incl. juices    : 2.668   2.993     3.366      3.7    3.7     3.9
    Bananas and plantains :  .845    .876     1.130      1.2    1.2     1.2
  Vegetables and preps.   : 2.428   2.723     3.030      3.0    3.2     3.0
  Nuts and preps.         :  .368    .373      .496       .5     .5      .5
  Wine and malt beverages : 1.616   1.918     2.207      2.4    2.6     2.8
  Nursery and cut flowers :  .609    .726      .807       .9     .9      .9
                          :
Grains and feeds          : 1.704   1.891     2.291      2.4    2.5     2.6
  Grains                  :  .505    .511      .654       .7     .7      .8
  Feeds and grain products: 1.199   1.380     1.637      1.7    1.8     1.9
                          :
Sugar and related products:  .818   1.137     1.221      1.6    1.8     1.9
Oilseeds and products     : 1.309   1.622     1.760      2.0    2.0     1.9
Tobacco, unmanufactured   :  .314    .539      .572       .7     .8      .9
Coffee, incl. products    : 2.670   2.228     3.363      2.9    2.9     2.9
Cocoa, incl. products     :  .817   1.037     1.089      1.4    1.4     1.4
Rubber and allied gums    : 1.179   1.106     1.589      1.6    1.5     1.5
Other products            :1.388    1.630     1.813      2.0    2.1     2.0
                          :
   Total                  :22.380  24.278    29.530     30.5   31.5    32.0

_______________________________________________________________________________

         Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports:  Volume by commodity, 1994-97
_______________________________________________________________________________

                          :  October-June   : Fiscal : Fiscal 1996 :   Fiscal
      Commodity           :1994/95 : 1995/96:  1995  :   Forecast  :    1997
                          :        :        :        :  May  : Aug.: Projected
_______________________________________________________________________________

                          :                --Million metric tons--

Red meats                 :  .795    .752      1.054    1.0   1.0     1.0
Cheese and casein         :  .177    .175       .244     .2    .2      .2
Horticultural products    : 7.691   8.662      9.689   10.7  10.8    10.5
  Fruits and preps.       : 5.049   5.268      6.350    6.5   6.6     6.7
    Bananas and plantains : 2.933   2.990      3.878    4.0   4.0     4.1
  Vegetables and preps.   : 2.499   3.252      3.150    4.0   4.0     3.6
  Nuts and preps.            .143    .142       .189     .2    .2      .2
  Wine and malt bev. 1/   :11.196  12.756     15.523   17.0  18.0    20.0
  Fruit juices 1/         :19.762  18.483     24.192   21.0  22.0    23.0
Grains and feeds          : 5.750   4.835      7.415    6.6   6.7     7.3
  Grains                  : 3.840   2.450      5.750    4.0   4.0     4.6
  Feed and grain products : 1.910   2.055      2.524    2.6   2.7     2.7
Sugar, cane or beet 2/    :  .950   1.507      1.541    2.4   2.5     2.7
Oilseeds and products     : 2.368   2.618      3.107    3.2   3.4     3.5
Tobacco, unmanufactured   :  .129    .182       .216     .2    .3      .3
Coffee, incl. products    :  .721    .854       .935    1.1   1.1     1.2
Cocoa, incl. products     :  .462    .643       .614     .9    .9      .9
Rubber and allied gums    :  .797    .752      1.043    1.0   1.0     1.0
                          :
_______________________________________________________________________________

 1/ Million hectoliters.  Not included in horticultural totals.  2/ Imports for
consumption, product weight.  Includes imports of quota-exempt sugar.
_______________________________________________________________________________

Table 7--U.S. agricultural imports:  Value by region, 1994-96
_______________________________________________________________________________

                             :    October-June      :  Fiscal  :  Fiscal 1996
        Region               : 1994/95  : 1995/96   :   1995   :    Forecast
                             :          :           :          : May  :   Aug.
_______________________________________________________________________________

                             :                 --Billion dollars--

Western Europe               :   4.329      4.743      5.885      6.2    6.3
  European Union 1/          :   4.201      4.610      5.713      6.0    6.1
  Other Western Europe       :    .128       .133       .172       .2     .2
Central and Eastern Europe   :    .116       .182       .202       .2     .3
Former Soviet Union          :    .021       .074       .053        2/    .1
Asia                         :   3.772      3.920      5.068      5.2    5.4
  Japan                      :    .233       .217       .305       .3     .3
  China                      :    .366       .398       .482       .5     .5
  Other East Asia            :    .227       .243       .305       .3     .3
  Southeast Asia             :   2.579      2.635      3.491      3.6    3.6
  South Asia                 :    .239       .428       .485       .5     .7
Middle East                  :    .239       .344       .318       .4     .5
Africa                       :    .480       .632       .698       .9     .9
  North Africa               :    .046       .058       .069       .1     .1
  Sub-Saharan Africa         :    .434       .574       .629       .8     .8
Latin America                :   8.122      8.473     10.197     10.0   10.3
  Mexico                     :   3.133      3.141      3.716      3.6    3.7
  Other Latin America        :   4.989      5.332      6.481      6.4    6.6
    Brazil                   :   1.008       .874      1.323      1.2    1.1
    Chile                    :    .472       .584       .537       .6     .7
Canada                       :   3.990      4.757      5.359      6.1    6.2
Oceania                      :   1.263      1.153      1.750      1.5    1.5
                             :
    Total                    :  22.378     24.278     29.530     30.5   31.5
                             :
  Developed countries        :   9.889     10.953     13.340     14.1   14.3
  Developing countries       :  12.005     12.709     15.542     15.7   16.3
  Other countries            :    .486       .617       .647       .7     .9
______________________________________________________________________________
 1/ Austria, Finland, and Sweden are included in the European Union.
 2/ Less than $50 million.

Imports are expected to increase $500 million in fiscal 1997 because of gains
across many commodity categories.  Red meat imports are expected to be $2.2
billion as volume and unit value rise slightly, but will not rebound to the
level of 1995 as U.S. supplies remain abundant.  Juice shipments will likely
raise fruit imports, but vegetables are likely to decline after the strong
gains in 1996, but volume and price will depend on U.S. winter supplies.
Increased production for coffee in 1996 will lower prices in 1997 from the
highs of the last 2 years.  Volume is likely to expand as stocks are rebuilt
but value is likely to remain near 1996 levels.

ENDOFFILE