Subject: Fruit & Tree Nuts Summary 8/21/96

From: [email-masked] (Andy Nachbaur)
Date: Thu, 22 Aug 1996 00:52:00 GMT

FRUIT AND TREE NUTS--SUMMARY                                  August 21, 1996
             Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Smaller U.S. Fruit Crops Support Higher Prices in 1996

Grower prices for fruits were higher than a year ago during the
first 7 months of 1996, due largely to smaller crops of apples
and pears during the fall of 1995, and strong domestic and export
demand.  Reduced production of grapefruit, Florida Valencia
oranges, Florida temples, and tangelos in 1995/96 also helped
bolster prices for the season.  Almond prices were also up
sharply, reflecting reduced 1995 production.  Expected smaller
crops of peaches, cherries, and blueberries this summer and
another small harvest of pears this fall will continue to support
grower prices during the second half of 1996.  Grape prices this
fall and through early 1997 are expected to remain strong,
reflecting nearly the same production as last year, a generally
good quality crop in California, and continued strong demand.
All-apple grower prices during 1996/97 will likely average the
same as last year's strong level, reflecting a relatively
unchanged 1996 U.S. apple crop and continued tight supplies of
processing apples. Strawberry prices this summer and almond
prices in 1996/97 may slip given the forecast of a larger new
crop.

Higher retail prices for apples, grapefruit, peaches, pears,
bananas, and grapes raised the consumer price index for fresh
fruits during January-June 1996 to 229, up 7 percent from a year
earlier.  Light supplies of summer noncitrus fruits will likely
keep the index strong this summer while increased production of
western crop apples and a large California table grape crop could
weaken the index this fall.  A potentially smaller pear crop,
however, may offset some of the downward pressure on fresh fruit
prices this fall.

U.S. apple production in 1996 is forecast at 10.7 billion pounds,
about the same as last year.  Cold weather and excessive moisture
delayed blooms and reduced crop potential in many apple-growing
States.  Smaller crops in many central and eastern States will be
offset by expected larger crops in Washington and California.
Apple production is expected to be up 15 percent in the western
States, but down 29 percent in the central States, and down 15
percent in the eastern States.  The larger western crop and the
expected smaller fruit size of the Washington crop are likely to
put downward pressure on fresh-market apple prices.  However,
continued tight supplies of processing apples and apple juice
stocks will likely help to maintain a relatively strong average
all-apple price.

USDA's August forecast puts the 1996 U.S. pear crop 17 percent
smaller than a year ago, with production of Bartlett pears on the
Pacific Coast down 18 percent and total U.S. production of other
varieties down 17 percent.  Sharply smaller crops in Washington
and Oregon will likely offset the expected 9-percent gain in
California's Bartlett output.

California peach production in 1996 is forecast up 19 percent
>from  a year ago, but sharply reduced crops in many States,
especially Georgia and South Carolina, will lower the U.S. output
an estimated 13 percent.  Total freestone peach production,
mainly for fresh use, is forecast down 31 percent, while
California clingstones, mostly for canning, are expected up 16
percent.

The 1996 U.S. sweet cherry crop was down 19 percent from a year
earlier, reflecting reduced production in Washington, Oregon,
Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New York.  Low chilling hours during
the winter limited California's production potential. California's
production was up 26 percent from 1995's weather-reduced output,
but 52 percent below 1994's bumper crop. California and Washington
grow mostly Bing cherries and other sweet  varieties for the fresh
market.  Fresh sweet cherry prices averaged higher than a year ago,
due partly to a 33-percent drop in Washington, the largest
domestic source.  This year's U.S. tart cherry production dropped
35 percent from 1995, with smaller crops in all producing States
except Utah. Production declined 42 percent in Michigan where
nearly three-fourths of U.S. tart cherries are grown.  Low stocks
of frozen tart cherries and a small crop helped to boost prices.

Large gains in California and New Jersey strawberry production
are compensating for smaller outputs in Florida, Washington,
Oregon, and Michigan.  USDA forecasts 1996 commercial strawberry
production in the six major producing States to be up 16 percent
>from  a year ago. Increased supplies, including imports, are
forcing fresh prices down.  More fresh supplies and lower prices
will likely encourage fresh strawberry consumption to increase
>from  3.76 pounds per person in 1995.

Industry sources expect blueberry supplies to be lighter this
summer, pushing grower prices up.  Cultivated blueberry
production will likely decrease in Michigan and other producing
States except New Jersey, Washington, and Oregon.  Fresh use and
processing use of the new blueberry crop will be down this
summer.

Preliminary indications from the California Kiwifruit Commission
suggest a slightly larger kiwifruit crop in 1996 that could
weaken prices in 1997.  California's kiwifruit production
decreased for the third straight year in 1995.  Increased imports
made up for the decline, maintaining U.S. supplies and holding
prices down.  Consumption rose from 0.503 pounds per person in
1994 to 0.514 pounds in 1995.

Hawaii's banana crop in 1996 decreased for the second straight
year due to adverse weather.  New acreage is being planted in
stages and production is anticipated to increase next year.  U.S.
fresh banana imports in 1995 were down 1 percent from year-earlier levels,
lowering domestic supplies and consumption.
Imports during January-May 1996 were virtually unchanged from
last year, and if they remain unchanged for the rest of 1996,
higher prices could be expected.   Limited supplies of stone
fruit and pears will also help support banana prices during the
remainder of 1996.

Imports will likely boost U.S. mango and papaya supplies in 1996.
Mango and papaya imports, mainly from Mexico, increased in 1995,
pushing U.S. supplies above a year earlier and raising
consumption to a new record.  Imports and consumption were lower
for fresh and canned pineapple, but higher for pineapple juice.

The 1995/96 U.S. orange crop was up about 2 percent from 1994/95,
and the second largest on record.  A large California  crop led
to an abundant supply of fresh-market oranges. Although the
California Valencia crop was up 8 percent, good fruit quality and
strong demand raised f.o.b prices.  Meanwhile, higher juice
yields boosted orange juice supplies despite a slightly smaller
Florida crop. Orange juice prices were also above last year's
because of reduced carryin stocks and strong domestic demand.

The 1995/96 U.S. grapefruit crop was down 5 percent from a year
earlier.  Florida's crop was 6 percent smaller, accounting for 80
percent of U.S. grapefruit production.  California's crop was up
2 percent. Florida grapefruit destined for the processing market
declined about 12 percent.  Total Florida fresh shipments
increased 3 percent in 1995/96, but the growth was in the export
market.   Florida domestic f.o.b. prices increased for both fresh
white and red grapefruit.

Total U.S. tree nut production will likely be up in 1996,
reflecting expected larger almond and walnut crops in California.
Almond production is forecast up 43 percent from 1995's sharply
reduced output, likely forcing prices down in 1996/97 and
boosting domestic and export demand.  Despite increased
production, walnut supplies are expected to remain unchanged due
to slightly lower beginning stocks.  Therefore, walnut prices in
1996/97 are expected to remain good.  Pistachio and pecan crops
are expected to be about average size, although smaller than in
1995.  Hazelnut production is expected to be much lower this year
due to alternate-bearing characteristics of this nut.  Hawaii's
macadamia production will likely continue to trend upward due to
the increasing number of bearing trees.

For more information, contact Agnes Perez (202) 501-6779.

Printed copies of FRUIT AND TREE NUTS Situation and Outlook
will be available in about a week.   Text of the full report will
also be available electronically.  For details on electronic
access, call (202) 219-0515.

ENDOFFILE
---
 þ QMPro 1.53 þ "Where there are fruits I nuts, there are beekeepers"