Subject: Fruit & Tree Nuts 10/3/96

From: [email-masked] (Andy Nachbaur)
Date: Fri, 4 Oct 1996 03:39:00 GMT

FRUIT AND TREE NUTS--SUMMARY                                  October 3, 1996
             Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788.  The complete text of FRUIT AND
TREE NUTS is available 2-3 working days following release of this summary.

Note: Tables in this report will not be properly formatted unless printed or
displayed with both a fixed-pitch font, such as Courier, and an 80-character
line width.
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Value of Fruit Production Up in 1995 with Record Noncitrus Value

The value of U.S. fruit production increased to $9.063 billion in 1995, up 6
percent from the previous year.  The value of the noncitrus crop, 74 percent
of the value of the total fruit crop, increased 7 percent to a record $6.701
billion.  Utilized noncitrus production in 1995 was the smallest since 1991,
but higher prices for many commodities outweighed the volume reduction to
yield the high value.  Output for several major noncitrus fruit crops
declined; some exceptions were grapes, tart cherries, avocados, and mangos.

The 1994/95 citrus crop was 15.8 million short tons, the largest since 1979/80
and 23 percent greater than the average of the previous 5 seasons.  Citrus
bearing acreage in 1995 was the largest since 1983 as the industry continued
to rebuild from damaging freezes in the 1980s.  Increased production of
oranges and grapefruit more than offset a smaller lemon crop.  With larger
production outweighing lower prices for oranges and grapefruit, the value of
the citrus crop increased 4 percent.  Strong citrus production pushed total
fruit output to a record 32 million tons.

Per Capita Fruit Consumption Unchanged in 1995

In 1995, per capita consumption of fruit, both fresh and processed, totaled
277 pounds, fresh- weight equivalent, essentially unchanged from 1994 1/.
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   1/ Consumption estimates are marketing year data which include citrus fruit
harvested in 1994/95 and noncitrus fruit harvested in 1995.
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Declines in apple, peach, pear, pineapple, strawberry, tangerine, and lemon
consumption were offset by increases in grape, orange, grapefruit, and lime
consumption.  Total per capita fruit consumption has increased slightly since
1975.  The average consumption for 1993 to 1995 was 277 pounds per capita, 7
percent higher than the average consumption of 1975 to 1977.  The share of
fruit consumed fresh increased from an average of 32 percent in 1975 to 1977
to an average of 36 percent in 1993 to 1995.

Per capita fresh fruit consumption fell 3 pounds in 1995 to 98 pounds.
Noncitrus consumption fell about 2 pounds and citrus fell 1 pound per person.
Per capita processed fruit consumption increased 2 percent to 179 pounds
(fresh-weight equivalent).  Noncitrus processed fruit consumption, at about 86
pounds per person, was virtually unchanged from 1994.  Processed citrus
consumption increased 4 percent to 90 pounds.

Total apple consumption fell from 50 pounds per person in 1994 to 46 pounds in
1995.  Utilized apple production declined 7 percent in 1995 from the year
before.  Even with a 34-percent increase in imports and a 20-percent decrease
in exports for the season, the total fresh supply available to domestic
consumers declined 2 percent.  Fresh apple consumption fell 1 pound to 19
pounds per person. Grower prices increased 28 percent for fresh-market apples.
With smaller supplies, less U.S. production went into processing; per capita
processed apple consumption declined 9 percent to 27 pounds.

Peach consumption declined 10 percent to 9 pounds per person in 1995.
Utilized peach production fell 7 percent.  Fresh consumption in 1995 decreased
less than 1 percent.  Processed consumption, not adjusted for stock changes,
declined 21 percent as the volume of the crop used in processing fell to the
lowest level since 1983.

Total strawberry consumption fell 4 percent in 1995, as an 8-percent decline
in fresh strawberry consumption outweighed a 10-percent rise in processed
consumption.  Strawberry production for the fresh market fell 9 percent but
was partially offset by a 35-percent rise in imports.  Since trade in fresh
strawberries is relatively small, the quantity available for fresh consumption
still decreased about 7 percent from the previous year.  Grower prices for
fresh strawberries increased to $60.80 per cwt in 1995, up about 1 percent
>from  1994.  Strawberry harvested acres continued to decline from the record of
51,330 acres set in 1993.

Pear consumption fell 12 percent with almost all of the change in processed
consumption (down 18 percent).   Utilized pear production declined 9 percent
in 1995 from 1994's record production of 1.046 million tons.  Imports and
exports both increased, leaving total 1995 U.S. supply of fresh pears just 1
percent below the previous year.  Grower prices for fresh pears increased 30
percent in 1995, while prices for processed pears fell 4 percent from the
previous year, continuing a downward trend since highs set in 1989 and 1992.

Per capita grape consumption increased 11 percent to 46 pounds.  Utilized
grape production increased 1 percent in 1995 over the previous year.  A
7-percent increase in fresh utilization outweighed larger exports, leaving the
total domestic table grape supply up 5 percent. Per capita consumption of
fresh grapes increased 4 percent.  The quantity of grapes used for juice
increased 18 percent in 1995.  Per capita consumption of processed grapes
increased 12 percent to 38 pounds.

Orange consumption (including Temples) increased 3 percent to 90 pounds per
person in 1995.  Orange production increased 11 percent in 1994/95 over the
previous season.  Fresh orange utilization declined 3 percent and processed
utilization increased 14 percent.  Fresh orange consumption declined 6 percent
to 12.3 pounds per person in 1994/95, while processed consumption increased 4
percent to 78 pounds. Grower prices for fresh market oranges in the 1994/95
season rose slightly to $7.79 per box, but processing market orange prices
fell 8 percent to $3.21 per box, on-tree basis.

Overall, grapefruit consumption increased 11 percent to 16.5 pounds per
person.  U.S. grapefruit production totaled 2.912 million tons in 1994/95, a
9-percent increase from the previous season and the largest volume since
1979/80.  Exports increased 6 percent, leaving domestic consumption during
1994/95 only slightly below that of the previous season.  Fresh consumption
decreased fractionally to 6 pounds in 1995.  Grower prices for fresh market
grapefruit in the 1994/95 season fell 15 percent to $4.78 per box, the lowest
since 1983/84.  With unusually low fresh-market prices in 1994/95, more
grapefruit was diverted to the processed market than at any time since
1980/81, further depressing processed prices.  Processed grapefruit
consumption in 1994/95 increased 19 percent to 10.5 pounds per person.

Canned fruit:  Total consumption of nine canned fruits, not adjusted for stock
changes, fell to 15.3 pounds per person (product-weight basis) in 1995, down
>from  18.3 pounds in 1994, and the lowest in the last 21 years.  Reduced
domestic supplies led to lower apparent consumption of canned apples,
apricots, tart cherries, olives, peaches, pineapples, plums and prunes, and
pears.  Of the nine major fruits, only consumption of canned sweet cherries
increased, from .03 pound per person to .04.  Changes in canned fruit
inventories have not been accounted for since 1988 when industry tabulation
and publication of carryover data ceased.  Without inventory data,
year-to-year changes in per capita consumption can be exaggerated.

Frozen fruit: Per capita consumption of nine types of frozen fruit increased
10 percent in 1995 to 3.8 pounds (frozen-weight basis), the highest in the
last 21 years.  Consumption increased for blackberries, raspberries,
strawberries, and other berries (including boysenberries and loganberries).
Of the berries, only blueberry consumption decreased.  Per capita frozen apple
consumption increased, even though total apple production fell.  Consumption
of frozen apricots, cherries, and peaches decreased.

Dried fruit:  Consumption of dried fruit totaled 2.7 pounds per person (dry
basis) in 1995/96, down 7 percent from 1994/95.  Raisins and dried prunes
accounted for 79 percent of dried fruit consumption.  Raisin consumption
declined in 1995/96.  Per capita consumption of dried prunes remained
unchanged at .5 pound.  Dried dates and peaches showed small increases in per
capita consumption.  Consumption of dried apples, apricots, and figs declined
following smaller production of these fruits.

Fruit juice:   Total per capita fruit juice consumption in 1995/96 remained
about the same as in the previous season.  Noncitrus juice consumption
increased to 2.5 single-strength equivalent gallons per person in 1995/96, up
slightly from 1994/95.  Apple juice consumption declined 8 percent from the
high in 1994/95, as both production of apple juice and cider, and imports
declined.  Both grape and pineapple per capita juice consumption increased.
Grape juice production increased due to ample total grape production.
Although pineapple juice production declined slightly, imports more than
compensated to increase total available supply.  Citrus juice consumption
declined slightly to 6.2 single-strength equivalent gallons in 1995/96.
Orange juice consumption decreased to 5.4 single-strength equivalent gallons.
Per capita grapefruit juice consumption declined to 0.6 gallon.  Lime juice
consumption decreased, but lemon juice consumption increased.

USDA's juice consumption estimates are based on the quantities of fruit used
to make juice and are not likely to match estimates based on retail sales
data.  After initial processing, juices can be blended, used in other
products, and repackaged before reaching the market.  USDA methodology does
not distinguish final product forms.  In addition, year-to-year changes in
noncitrus juice consumption are likely overstated because carryover stock data
are not available.

Tree Nut Production and Per Capita Consumption Decline in 1995

The value of production for all tree nuts rose to $1.66 billion in 1995, the
second highest on record.  Crop value for each tree nut was higher except for
almonds, which was slightly lower in spite of record grower prices. U.S. tree
nut production fell sharply in 1995 to 781 million pounds (shelled basis), the
lowest since 1986.  Almond production in 1995 was down 50 percent,
contributing most of the decrease in total tree nut output.  The smaller crop
of almonds was partially due to a drop in bearing acreage, bad weather
conditions, and poor pollination.  The macadamia and walnut crops were
slightly lower in 1995, but production of hazelnuts, pecans, and pistachios
was higher.

Due to the smaller supply of tree nuts and higher prices, total domestic use
fell to 528 million pounds (shelled basis) or 2.00 pounds per capita, one of
the lowest consumption levels since 1981/82.  Per capita consumption of
hazelnuts and pecans increased.  Consumption of almonds, walnuts, macadamias,
and pistachios all declined.  The largest change in per capita consumption was
in the other nuts category which includes Brazil nuts, pignolias, chestnuts,
cashews, and mixed nuts.  Consumption of other nuts fell from .50 to .34 pound
per person.

A small crop of almonds, at 370 million pounds in 1995, caused supplies to
fall sharply and the season average grower price to jump to a record high of
$2.39 per pound.  The much smaller almond supply caused the volume of exports
and domestic use to decrease substantially and left ending stocks at a very
low level.  Per capita consumption fell from .56 pound to .50 pound.  Utilized
walnut production in 1995 decreased 3 percent.  The average grower price rose
substantially due to excellent quality.  Domestic use fell during the 1995/96
marketing season.  Per capita walnut consumption declined from .44 pound to
.36 pound.  Pecan production in 1995 increased to 268 million pounds in-shell,
35 percent above the small 1994 crop.  Per capita consumption increased from
.49 to .51 pound per person. The average grower price remained almost
unchanged at $1.01 per pound, allowing grower cash receipts to climb to nearly
$272 million.

Printed copies of the Fruit and Tree Nuts Situation and Outlook report will be
available in about a week. For more information contact Linda Calvin (202)
501-8449. The text of the report will also be available electronically. For
details, call (202) 219-0515.

END_OF_FILE

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From: Oliver Patterson <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 05 Oct 1996 12:41:38 -0400

"Output for several major noncitrus fruit crops
declined; some exceptions were grapes, tart cherries, avocados, and 
mangos."

In reference to this statement, I wonder which state is responsible for 
the increase in avocado and mango production.

Also, it's sad to see that non-citrus fruit output has declined.

Oliver Patterson
Gardening in Mount Dora, FL (zone 9)