Subject: Fruit & Tree Nuts 9/23/96

From: [email-masked] (Andy Nachbaur)
Date: Tue, 24 Sep 1996 00:55:00 GMT

part 2
From: ERS Maintenance People <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 23 Sep 96 14:41:46 EDT
Subject: Fruit & Tree Nuts 9/23/96

percent from the 1990-94 average.  The sharp increase in production, however,
was enough to offset the price decline, and raised the total value of the crop
to $1.7 million, up 15 percent from a year ago.

Mango Imports Are Record High

U.S. fresh mango imports from January through May 1996 totaled 174.7 million
pounds, up 36 percent from a year ago.  Imports from Mexico were up 48 percent
and accounted for about 76 percent of the total.  Shipments from Mexico are
usually the highest during April through August.  Continued increased imports
in 1996 will likely put some downward pressure on wholesale prices and could
set a new record for domestic mango consumption.

Record large imports of fresh mangoes in 1995 helped to increase domestic
consumption from 0.98 pounds per person in 1994 to a 1.13 pounds--a record.
Fresh mango imports in 1995 made up 97 percent of U.S. supplies.  Imports rose
14 percent from 1994 and were valued at $122.5 million.  Mexico supplied 81
percent of U.S. mango imports last year (table 20), with the volume up 6
percent from a year earlier, and Mexico's largest exports to the United States
since the 1970's.  Haiti, Guatemala, Peru, Brazil, Venezuela, and Ecuador were
the other leading suppliers, each providing at least a million pounds.  Imports
rose from each of these six countries, except Venezuela, whose shipments were
down 38 percent from the year before.

Hawaii's Papaya Production Continues To Decline

Hawaii's papaya production in 1996 is expected to decline from a year ago, due
partly to the effects of tropical storms.  Also, the papaya ring spot virus
remains a problem in major production areas, causing lower yields and increased
tree losses.  Harvested acreage and fresh production have averaged 4 percent
and 14 percent below a year ago, respectively, during the first 7 months of
1996.  Grower prices for fresh papayas, however, have averaged 45.2 cents a
pound from January through May, compared with 59.7 during the same period last
year.

Hawaii's papaya production decreased 18 percent from a year earlier to 50.8
million pounds in 1995, the lowest since 1980's 48.9 million pounds.  Acres
harvested expanded 11 percent from 1994, but yields were 26 percent lower.
Variable weather throughout the year could be blamed for the State's production
performance, but heavy losses in major producing areas were mostly due to the
papaya ring spot virus.

During 1995, 82 percent of production entered the fresh market, and the
remainder was processed.  Fresh-market production decreased 25 percent from a
year earlier while processed use increased 53 percent.  The decline in fresh-ma
rket output drove fresh-market grower prices sharply higher last year,
bringing the season-average grower price for all papayas up 63 percent from
1994.  At the same time, grower prices paid by processors in 1995 remained
unchanged from the year before.  Even with the large decline in total output,
the sharp rise in grower prices helped raise the total value of last year's
crop to $18.5 million, 34 percent above the previous year.

Growth in Imports Compensates Dip in Hawaii's Papaya Output

U.S. fresh papaya imports are expected to continue to increase in 1996,
offsetting some of the declines in domestic production.  Imports have
consistently increased over the last 8 years and have accounted for a rising
share of total papaya supplies.  Cumulative U.S. imports of fresh papayas
during the first 5 months of 1996 totaled 52.8 million pounds, up 70 percent
>from  a year ago.  During 1995, imports were a record at 73.4 million pounds, up
78 percent from 1994, and accounted for 64 percent of U.S. fresh papaya
supplies.  Increased papaya imports, mainly from Mexico, and reduced exports
raised fresh papaya consumption to a record 0.37 pounds per person in 1995, 23
percent above 1994.  Mexico shipped 67.2 million pounds of papayas to the
United States in 1995, 92 percent of total U.S. papaya imports (table 21).
U.S. exports of fresh papayas amounted to 17.3 million pounds, down 5 percent
>from  1994.

Pineapple Production Continues Long-Term Decline

Hawaii's pineapple production declined for the eighth consecutive year in 1995,
totaling 690 million pounds, 5 percent smaller than in 1994.  The long-term
decline in the State's production  may be attributed to increased industry
pressure from foreign competition, rising production costs, a tight labor
situation, and nonagricultural land use.  Hawaiian pineapple production may
continue to decline if these factors continue to plague the industry.  Acreage
harvested, which declined each year from 1987 to 1993, was again below a year
earlier, dropping from 22,300 acres in 1994 to 20,800 acres.

Fresh use of Hawaii's 1995 pineapple crop decreased to 250 million pounds,
about 4 percent less than in 1994 while processed use dropped to 440 million
pounds, down 6 percent.   Decreased domestic output contributed to stronger
grower prices in 1995, raising the value of Hawaii's crop to $87.4 million,
>from  $78.9 million in 1994.   The 1995 season-average grower price for all
pineapples was 12.7 cents per pound, 17 percent higher than the previous year,
with fresh-market prices up 23 percent and processing prices up 3 percent.

Lower Fresh and Canned Pineapple Imports, Consumption Down

U.S. fresh pineapple imports declined 6 percent from a year earlier during the
first 5 months of 1996.  Despite reduced production last year, U.S. fresh
pineapple imports totaled 274.7 million pounds, down 5 percent from 1994 (table
22).  Imports came mainly from Costa Rica, Honduras, and Mexico.  During the
past several years, duty-free status, established in the Caribbean Basin
Initiative in 1983, encouraged more imports from Central American and Caribbean
countries.  However, imports from the Dominican Republic in 1995, previously
the third largest supplier of fresh pineapples to the United States and the
largest among the Caribbean countries, declined 67 percent from the prior year.

 Tight U.S. supplies and higher prices lowered domestic consumption, from 2.04
pounds of fresh pineapples per person in 1994 to 1.93 pounds in 1995.

The United States continues to be a net importer of canned pineapples and
pineapple juice.  During 1995, the United States imported 655.0 million pounds
of canned pineapples and exported about 8 million pounds.  During the same
year, imports of pineapple juice totaled about 1.3 billion pounds (fresh-weight
equivalent) while exports amounted to 39.6 million.  Although still a
significant proportion of U.S. supplies (about 88 percent), imports of canned
pineapples decreased 11 percent from 1994. Shipments from Thailand and the
Philippines, the two major suppliers, were down 35 percent and 3 percent,
respectively (table 23).

U.S. pineapple juice imports during the same year rose 16 percent to 85.0
million gallons, with larger shipments from the major sources--the Philippines,
Thailand, Indonesia, and Japan (table 24).  Although minor U.S. sources, Mexico
and Hong Kong increased exports to the United States about five- and eight-fold
their levels a year earlier, respectively.  Despite reduced U.S. exports,
tighter supplies of canned pineapples resulted in a drop in domestic
consumption, from 5.41 pounds per person in 1994 to 4.77 pounds in 1995.  In
contrast, consumption of pineapple juice rose from 5.28 pounds (fresh-weight
equivalent) per person (0.35 gallons per person, processed-weight) in 1994 to
5.80 pounds (0.39 gallons) in 1995.

Citrus Fruit Outlook

Record Large Florida Early and Midseason Orange Crop in 1995/96

USDA's final forecast of U.S. orange production for 1995/96 is 11.80 million
tons, up nearly 2 percent from last year and second only to the record 11.83
million tons produced in 1979/80.
Early, midseason, and navel orange production rose in 1995/96 but Valencia
production declined based on USDA's July forecast.  Grapefruit production fell
5 percent.  The total U.S. citrus crop was nearly 1 percent larger than last
season.

U.S. production of early, midseason, and navel oranges in 1995/96 increased
almost 4 percent from last season.  Florida production increased 1 percent;
early and midseason production reached record highs, and the navel crop was the
second largest in history.  California navel production increased 14 percent
but much of the crop was affected by puff and crease, which contributed to low
prices during the middle of the season.

While overall orange production was up, total Valencia production fell nearly 2
percent from last season.  Florida's Valencia production was down 4 percent
while California's production rose 8 percent, in part due to a good fruit set.
Both Arizona and Texas showed increases in Valencia production although the
total was still small.  Temple production fell almost 15 percent to 97,000
tons, the second smallest harvest since 1962/63.  Temple bearing acres declined
by two-thirds in the last 20 years.

Tangerine production in 1995/96 was a record 346,000 tons with production up 27
percent in Florida, 52 percent in Arizona, and 15 percent in California.
Bearing acreage rose 30 percent from the 1992/93 to 1994/95 season.  In Florida
the early varieties (Robinson, Sunburst, and Fallglo) continue to show
production increases, up 38 percent in the last three seasons, relative to
later maturing varieties.  Early varieties are desirable because they mature by
the beginning of December; the harvest is in the marketplace for the holiday
season, and the crop is less liable to experience cold damage.  Tangelo
production declined 23 percent.  Tangelos are particularly susceptible to cold
damage and mature at the same time as tangerines.

U.S. grapefruit production totaled 2.77 million tons in 1995/96, down 5 percent
>from  last year.  Florida, the major producer, saw a decline of 6 percent from
the 1994/95 record.  Fruit size was very large.  Production of white seedless
fell 10 percent and colored seedless declined 2 percent.  Florida seedy
production declined 18 percent to match the 1993/94 record low. Texas
production declined 2 percent.  California grapefruit production increased 2
percent with good quality.

The 1995/96 lemon production estimate is 992,000 tons, up 8 percent from a year
earlier. California production, generally 80-85 percent of the total U.S. crop,

increased a modest 2 percent.  Arizona production increased 42 percent from the
relatively low level of the previous season.  Producers, however, continued to
experience problems with heart rot dieback disease.

Lime production increased to 13,200  tons in 1995/96, 32 percent above the
previous year as the industry rebuilds from the damage of Hurricane Andrew in
1992.   Bearing acreage increased 26 percent from last season to 2,400 acres,
still below the 6,300 acres in 1992.

Strong Prices for Florida Oranges and California Valencias

California Valencia production increased and crop quality was good.  Strong
domestic demand is keeping prices high.  Navel prices fell following a poor
quality crop.  Florida fresh-market production was the lowest since 1989/90,
pushing up prices.

Total U.S. orange production is estimated to increase nearly 2 percent in
1995/96 from the previous season.  Production is up in California and Arizona
but down in Florida and Texas.  Fresh consumption is estimated to increase 11
percent from last season.

California's Navel Crop Suffers But Valencia Crop Prices Remain Strong

California 1995/96 navel production increased 14 percent from last season.
Quality problems such as puff and crease contributed to marketing difficulties.

More fruit went into the lower quality choice grade with prices falling
accordingly.  Lower quality fruit adversely affected exports through most of
the season.  The season started late and California navel f.o.b. prices were
higher than last year at the beginning of the season.  But from January through
March, f.o.b. prices ranged from 5 to 17 percent below a year earlier.   Export
demand was strong in March and April, which helped raise prices above a year
earlier at the end of the season.

California Valencia production rose 8 percent due mostly to a heavier fruit
set. Quality is good and domestic demand has been particularly is strong.
F.o.b. prices through June ranged from 7 to 10 percent higher than a year ago.
Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore are particularly important  markets for
Valencias.

Strong Florida Fresh Market Season

The Florida Citrus Administrative Committee estimates that in 1995/96, 8.4
million 90-pound boxes of Florida oranges went to the fresh market, only 4
percent of the harvest and the least since 1989/90.  Florida exports (excluding
Canada) declined 16 percent this season over last.  Season-average Florida
f.o.b. prices were up 17-18 percent, depending on the type of orange.

Exports Down Slightly

U.S. orange exports are down 8 percent this season through June, primarily due
to lower than expected exports to Japan.  In 1994/95, 32 percent of the fresh
orange and tangerine exports went to Canada, 29 percent to Japan, and 22
percent to Hong Kong.  From November to June this season, exports to Canada
were about the same as a year ago.  Exports to Japan and Hong Kong were down 23
and 16 percent, respectively.  Several potential explanations for lower exports
include quality problems for navels, strong domestic demand for Valencias, and
a relatively cold winter and spring in Japan which dampened consumer demand for
citrus.

Strong Demand Buoys Orange Juice Prices

Despite record high U.S. orange juice production, strong demand kept prices
high.  Imports are predicted at 17 percent above last year's relatively low
level.  Ending stocks are expected to be  the lowest since 1991/92.

U.S. orange juice production for 1995/96 is forecast to be a record 1.3 billion
single-strength equivalent (SSE) gallons, up 1 percent from last year.   During
the five seasons prior to 1995/96 Florida averaged 94 percent of the total U.S.
orange juice production.  Florida harvested 203.2 million 90-pound boxes of
oranges, down 1 percent from last year.  Sixty-four percent of the harvest was
used for frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ), down from 69 percent a year
ago.  The FCOJ yield for all Florida oranges was 1.52 gallons (42 degrees Brix)
per box, 1 percent over last year's yield.  The juice yield for early and
midseason oranges was 1.45 gallons, also up 1 percent from the previous year.
For Valencia oranges the yield was 1.67 gallons per box, up 6 percent.

This season 31 percent of the orange harvest went immediately to not-from-conce
ntrate (NFC) chilled juice, up from 26 percent last year.  FCOJ can be
reprocessed at a later date to make reconstituted chilled juice.  The Florida
Citrus Processing Association (FCPA) reports that as of August 3, 1996,
Florida chilled juice production (both NFC and reconstituted juice) was up 12
percent from the same time last season.

Consumption Up

The FCPA reports that as of August 3, 1996, cumulative movement of  FCOJ from
Florida was 3 percent above the previous year despite higher prices.  Higher
prices for apple juice boosted demand for orange juice.  However, movement is
slowing in the summer months.  Analysts are divided over expected movement for
the rest of the season. Total Florida movement in 1994/95 was the largest to
date.  Movement includes both Florida production and imports by FCPA members.
Through April of the 1995/96 season, 55 percent of orange juice imports entered
through Florida ports compared to 38 percent at the same time last year.

Total U.S. carryin FCOJ stocks on December 1, 1995, were 24 percent below the
previous  year.  As of August 3, 1996, FCOJ stocks in Florida were 12 percent
below levels last year.  Total U.S. ending stocks this season are forecast at
195 million SSE gallons, down 5 percent from last year, and  the lowest since
1991/92.

Orange Juice Prices Strong

The Florida Citrus Mutual reports that Florida bulk concentrate f.o.b. prices
averaged $1.46 per pound solids for the 1995/96 season through July 27, up 20
percent from the same time last season.  So far during the 1995/96 processing
season, the average monthly equivalent on-tree prices received by Florida
growers for processing oranges has ranged from $3.00 to $7.05, up 38 percent
>from  a year earlier.

Imports Up

Imports in 1995/96 are predicted to be 232 million SSE gallons, 17 percent
above last year's relatively low level.  From December 1995 through May 1996,
imports totaled 118.6 million SSE gallons, about 6 percent ahead of  imports at
the same time a year ago.  This year 62 percent of imports have come from
Brazil, up from 50 percent at this time last year.  Imports of Mexican orange
juice  total 24 percent so far, down from 37 percent last year.  Mexican orange
juice production in 1995/96 is estimated to be 27 percent lower than last
season due to a smaller orange crop.  Most of the Mexican orange production
goes to the fresh domestic market so the processing industry faces limited
supplies of competitively priced oranges.

Exports of all orange juice through May of the 1995/96 season  are down almost
2 percent from a year ago.  Exports to Canada, Western Europe, and Asia
accounted for 93 percent of trade through April of this season.  The share of
exports to Canada and Asia increased 24 and 57 percent, respectively, from last
season.  The share of exports to Western Europe declined 28 percent because of
higher domestic prices this season.

Brazilian Orange Juice Production Forecast To Decline 3 Percent in 1996

Brazilian 1996 FCOJ production is projected at 1,483 million SSE gallons, down
3 percent from 1995.  Despite the expected decline, exports are forecast to
increase 2 percent to 1,511 million SSE gallons, with most going to European
markets.  Exports to the U.S. will depend on Florida's production.

The harvest for Brazil's 1996 orange season began in June.  In 1995, the State
of Sao Paulo accounted for 98 percent of total Brazilian FCOJ production.
Orange production in Sao Paulo is forecast at 352 million boxes in 1996 with
247 million boxes destined for processing.  Brazilian domestic consumption of
fresh oranges has been increasing over the last 10 years.  Large production and
less aggressive buying by processors have led to lower fresh prices and
strengthened consumer demand.  Changes in the economy that have increased
income for lower- and lower-middle income consumers also have bolstered demand
for fresh oranges.

Record Exports Raise Fresh Grapefruit Prices

Fresh grapefruit continued to face low demand in the domestic market while
exports increased.  Grapefruit juice prices remain low with large stocks
overhanging the market.

U.S. grapefruit production in 1995/96 is expected to decline to 2.77 million
tons, 5 percent below last year and 9 percent below the 1976/77 record.
Florida production, 80 percent of the total U.S. crop, declined 6 percent.
Production of all three types of grapefruit declined:  white seedless fell 10
percent, colored seedless fell 2 percent from last year's record, and seedy
declined 18 percent.  The seedy crop, estimated at 45,000 tons, continues to
decline.  Fruit size in Florida was very large this year.  Texas production,
which is still recovering from the 1990/91 freeze, was 2 percent lower than
last year.  Arizona production declined 15 percent and California production is
likely to increase 2 percent.

Domestic Fresh Sales Weak but Exports Increase to Record Levels

Data from the Florida Citrus Administrative Committee show that while total
Florida fresh grapefruit shipments increased 3 percent during 1995/96, the
growth was in the export market.  Fresh Florida domestic shipments in 1995/96
to the U.S. and Canada were 7 percent below last season.  Florida fresh
shipments declined 7.5 percent for white seedless and 6.7 percent for red
seedless.   Texas fresh shipments to the U.S. and Canada were also down 6.2
percent from last year.

U.S. fresh grapefruit exports from September through June this season were up 5
percent from a year ago. Exports to the European Union increased 20 percent
above levels at the same time last year. Quality of red grapefruit on arrival
in export markets was much better than in recent years.  Industry analysts
credit strong growth in Europe to the relatively weak U.S. dollar and a decline
in noncitrus fruit supplies.  Texas grapefruit had problems with irregular
shape (sheepnose) and short shelf-life so exports were down and more fruit went
into the processed market.

Florida domestic f.o.b. prices increased for both white and red grapefruit.
Fresh-market Florida white grapefruit prices increased 5-10 percent from last
year and red increased 10-11 percent.  The average of monthly on-tree-equivalen
t prices for fresh-market grapefruit was $3.96 for Florida this year,
15 percent lower than last year.  The monthly on-tree-equivalent prices reflect
f.o.b. prices minus the packing charges and the costs of picking the fruit,
loading, and delivery.  This price also includes returns from fruit sold on the
export market.  If a higher percent of fruit fails to meet the stringent export
market standards, it is possible for export returns to fall below domestic
returns.  November 1995 f.o.b. prices for all Florida fresh grapefruit exceeded
those of November 1994.  April and May prices were also much stronger than the
previous year.  Consumers in Japan and Hong Kong prefer the sweeter grapefruit
available at the end of the season.  Also, a tighter supply situation for
noncitrus fruit may have bolstered the demand for grapefruit.

Large Grapefruit Juice Stocks Still Depressing Juice Prices

The Florida Citrus Administrative Committee reports that for the 1995/96 season
1,253 thousand tons of the Florida grapefruit crop went to the processing
sector, down about 12 percent from the previous season.  Only 57 percent of the
Florida grapefruit supply went into processing in 1995/96 compared to 60
percent in 1994/95.  Processing took 76.1 percent of the Florida white seedless
crop and 40.5 percent of the red seedless crop.  The Florida grapefruit juice
yield is 1.17 gallons (40 degrees Brix) per box, 3 percent below the average of
the previous five seasons.  Florida beginning stocks of frozen concentrate for
the 1995/96 season were 13.1 million gallons, up 37 percent from the previous
year.

The Florida Citrus Processors Association reports that Florida frozen
concentrated grapefruit juice production through August 3 of the 1995/96 season
declined 13 percent from the same time last year.  Movement to date is down 2
percent from a year ago.  Stocks on August 3, 1996, were about 2 percent above
the same time last year.  White juice accounts for 72 percent of bulk stocks, a
slightly higher percentage than in previous years.  Estimated monthly on-tree-e
quivalent prices for processing grapefruit averaged a negative $0.79 for
1995/96, a slight improvement over last year's minus $1.19.

The prices for processing grapefruit vary by variety.  In the early and mid-198
0s red juice commanded a premium over white.  Between 1984 and 1994 red
grapefruit tree numbers increased 87 percent while white grapefruit trees
declined 2 percent.  The large increase in red grapefruit supplies will
continue to depress prices.  Estimated monthly on-tree-equivalent prices for
processing grapefruit averaged a minus $0.03 for white seedless and a minus
$1.71 for red seedless.  Seedy grapefruit prices averaged $1.01 for the season.

 The Florida Citrus Mutual reports season average prices (weighted by bulk
movement) through July 27 for Florida bulk frozen concentrated grapefruit juice
are down 2 percent for red and 12 percent for white.  The market for grapefruit
byproducts, such as peel products and animal feed pellets, has lifted the
returns for farmers while the price of juice remains low.

For the 1995/96 season, 77 percent of the Florida processed grapefruit went to
frozen concentrated grapefruit juice.  The importance of chilled grapefruit
juice has continued to grow and 23 percent of the processed grapefruit went
immediately into NFC chilled production (frozen concentrate can be reprocessed
later into chilled).  Data from large retail stores, collected by A.C. Nielson,
show that season-to-date sales of all grapefruit juice products through July
13, 1996, are down 2.3 percent from the same time last season.  Frozen
concentrate consumption was down 6 percent from a year ago.  Between 1983/84
and 1993/94, chilled  juice grew from 35 percent to 63 percent of the
grapefruit juice market.

Tree Nut Outlook

Almond, Walnut Harvests Increase, Other Nut Crops Average

Generally normal weather in California portends good crops in the West.
Southwest pecan orchards have experienced drought conditions.  Southeast
conditions are good.

Almond Supply Rebounds

California expects 530 million pounds (shelled basis) of almonds to be
harvested this year.  The forecast is 43 percent higher than the small crop
harvested in 1995.  Even though bloom conditions were reported good to
excellent by most growers, cold weather and intermittent rain storms during
February and March hampered pollination.  The estimated 410,000 bearing acres
for 1996 are up approximately 10,000 acres from last year.  Production of
Nonpareil, the major almond variety, is forecast at 250 million pounds, up 52
percent from last season.  The average nut set is 5,482 almonds per tree, up 45
percent from 1995.  The Nonpareil nut set is 4,963, 29 percent above last year.

The average kernel weight, at 1.85 grams, is down slightly from last year, but
the percent of sound nuts is 97, indicating excellent quality and only minor
insect and other off-grade problems.

Stocks at the end of the 1995/96 marketing year (June 30) totaled 89.1 million
pounds, according to the Almond Board of California, the lowest in recent
years.  Domestic almond demand declined last year to 133 million pounds or .50
pounds per capita, the third lowest since 1982/83.  The season-average grower
price hit a record high of $2.39 per pound, compared with 1994's $1.34 and the
previous record of $1.94 set in 1993.

The high price and low supply situation during the 1995/96 season caused
exports to fall to 335 million pounds, well below those of the past five
seasons.  With the much improved supply situation for the 1996/97 marketing
season, exports are expected to increase dramatically and domestic consumption
should also rise.  Even though prices are likely to decline due to the larger
supply, grower cash receipts should total about $1 billion.

Walnut Production Up Slightly

California walnut production is forecast at 235,000 tons (in-shell basis),
slightly higher than the 1995 crop.  Bearing acreage is estimated at 169,000
acres, the same as in 1995.  Expectations are for above average yields from
early-season varieties, while mid- and late-season varieties are expected to
have average yields.  Heavy drop resulted from this winter's low chilling hours
and rains received in May.  An updated production forecast by USDA, based upon
an objective measurement survey, will be available on August 30, 1996.

Total supply for the 1996/97 marketing year should be virtually the same as
last season because beginning stocks are slightly lower than a year ago.
According to the Walnut Marketing Board, in-shell shipments August 1, 1995-June
30, 1996 totaled 137 million pounds, down 13 percent from a year earlier.
Shelled shipments totaled 141 million pounds through June 30, compared with 121
million pounds the previous year.  Total domestic shipments through June 30
exceeded 148,000 tons (in-shell equivalent), up 18 percent from last season,
while export shipments totaled nearly 90,000 tons, down 10 percent.  Shipments
to most European markets as well as to Canada and other major world markets
were lower during the 1995/96 season.  The primary reason is ever-increasing
competition from China.  However, domestic demand for U.S. walnuts continues to
hold steady.

The grower price averaged $1,340 per ton during the 1995/96 season, compared
with $1,000 the previous year due to quality problems, and $1,390 per ton in
1993/94.  Prices for the 1996/97  marketing year are expected to remain good.

Smaller Hazelnut Output

The Oregon hazelnut crop this year is expected to be much lower than in 1995 du
e
to the alternate-bearing nature of this tree nut even though bearing acres
continue to increase.  Flooding and other weather-related problems have reporte
dly
caused only minor losses. The official USDA forecast based upon an objective
measurement survey will be available on August 27, 1996.  The 1995 U.S. hazelnu
t
production was 39,000 tons (in-shell basis) and nearly all of this production w
as
located in Oregon.   In spite of  a large supply during the 1995/96 season, the
grower price averaged $913 per ton, the highest since 1987 due to strong domest
ic
demand.  Carryover stocks for the 1996/97 marketing year that began July 1 were
seasonally low and will have little impact on the available supply.  Therefore,
prices are expected to continue very strong.

Pecan Crop Prospects Mixed

Some pecan producing States expect production to rise this year while others
anticipate a decrease from 1995.  Overall, prospects are for an average size pe
can
crop.  Some industry estimates place the 1996 U.S. crop at about 250 million
pounds.  The first official forecast will be issued by USDA on September 11, 19
96.
Last year production totaled 268 million pounds (in-shell basis), compared with
a small crop of 199 million in 1994 and the second-largest crop on record of 36
5
million in 1993.  The pecan crops this year are down substantially in Texas and
Oklahoma due to drought conditions.  New Mexico output is also much lower than
the
record crop harvested last year, but yields this year should be near average.
Georgia, the largest producing State, expects a substantial increase from the
below normal crop produced in 1995.

The U.S. grower price for all pecans was strong last year averaging $1.01 per
pound for the entire season, compared with $1.04 per pound for the 1994 crop an
d
58.6 cents in 1993.  Beginning stocks for the 1996/97 season (July 1) at 49
million pounds were 11 percent lower than a year ago.   Pecan exports and impor
ts
are growing, but in the 1990's imports have accelerated more, leaving  the Unit
ed
States a net importer of pecans.  Nearly all pecan imports are from Mexico and
the
quantity imported varies from year to year depending on the U.S. supply situati
on.
Typically, imports account for 10-20 percent of total pecan supply.  The indust
ry
reports that Mexico could add substantially to the supply this year and in year
s
to come.  Some estimate that Mexico could have as many as 130,000 acres of
irrigated pecans in various stages of maturity.  Mexico may eventually produce
as
many pecans as Georgia and Texas combined or approximately two-thirds of total
U.S. production.

Pistachio Production Expectations Good

There will be no production forecast for California pistachios this season.
Results of an objective measurement survey will be released on August 30 showin
g
nut set and other yield factors.  The first USDA production estimate will be
available in January 1997.  Indications are that a good crop is expected.
Pistachios, like walnuts, bloom later than many other fruit and nut crops and
appear to have been generally unaffected by spring rains.  Pistachios, however,
are more alternate-bearing than walnuts, and more similar biologically to almon
ds,
bearing heavy one year and then bearing lighter the next.  In 1995, pistachio
production was 148 million pounds in California, compared with 129 million in 1
994
and 152 million in 1993.  Bearing acreage was 60,300 in 1995 and should be high
er
in 1996 as acreage continues to trend upward.

The grower price last season averaged 95.7 cents per pound (in-shell basis).  T
his
compares to 92.1 cents per pound in 1994 and $1.07 in 1993.  According to the
California Pistachio Commission, the in-shell pistachio inventory was 22.6 mill
ion
pounds on June 30, 1996, exactly the same as on June 30, 1995.  Shelling stock
this June stood at 6.2 million pounds, compared with 3.9 million a year ago.
Domestic in-shell shipments totaled 59.9 million pounds (September 1-June 30) t
his
year, compared with 72.4 million a year earlier.  However, export in-shell
shipments for the same period during the 1995/96 season, at 34.6 million pounds
,
were slightly higher than in 1994/95.  Major export markets include Eastern
Europe, Australia, Hong Kong, Korea, Japan, Switzerland, and Canada.

Macadamia Nut Output Trending Upward

Although the 1995 production of Hawaii macadamia nuts fell slightly to 50 milli
on
pounds (in-shell basis), output of macadamias continues to trend upward due to
increasing numbers of bearing trees.  In 1995, bearing acreage stood at 19,300,
compared with 18,500 acres in 1994.  Acreage and production are expected to
continue gradually upward.  Grower prices have also been improving with  with 1
995
prices averaging 74.0 cents per pound, up from 69.0 cents in 1994.
List of Tables

Tables
 1.     Index of prices received by growers for fruit and nuts, 1992-96
 2.     U.S. consumer price indexes for fruit, 1994-95 . . . . . . . .
 3.     Apples: Total production and season-average price received by growers,
          1993-95, and indicated 1996 production . . . . . . . . . . .
 4.     Grapes: Total production and season-average price received by growers
          in principal States, 1993-95, and indicated 1996 production. . .
 5.     U.S. imports of fresh pears, by country (May-April), 1991/92-95/96 . .
.
 6.     Pears: Total production and season-average price received by growers,
          1993-95, and indicated 1996 production . . . . . . . . . . .
 7.     Peaches: Total production and season-average price received by growers,
          1993-95, and indicated 1996 production . . . . . . . . . . .
 8.     Apricots and nectarines: Total production and season-average price rece
ived
          by growers, 1992-95, and indicated 1996 production . . . . .
 9.     Plums and prunes: Production and season-average price received by growe
rs
          in principal States, 1993-95, and indicated 1996 production. . .
10.     Sweet cherries: Total production and season-average price received by g
rowers,
          1993-95, and indicated 1996 production . . . . . . . . . . .
11.     Tart cherries: Total production and season-average price received by gr
owers,
          1993-95, and indicated 1996 production . . . . . . . . . . .
12.     U.S. strawberry production, major States, 1992-96. . . . . . .
13.     Fresh strawberry shipments in the United States, monthly, by source, 19
91-96
14.     Blueberry prices received by growers, 1993-95. . . . . . . . .
15.     North American blueberry production, 1993-96 . . . . . . . . .
16.     U.S. blueberry shipments, monthly, 1991-96 . . . . . . . . . .
17.     California kiwifruit: Acreage, production, and value, 1991-95. . .
18.     U.S. imports of fresh kiwifruit, by country, 1991-95 . . . . .
19.     U.S. imports of bananas, excluding plantains, by country, 1988-95. . .
.
20.     U.S. imports of fresh mangoes, by country, 1991-95 . . . . . .
21.     U.S. imports of fresh papayas, by country, 1991-95 . . . . . .
22.     U.S. imports of fresh and frozen pineapple, 1993-95. . . . . .
23.     U.S. imports of canned pineapple, 1993-95. . . . . . . . . . .
24.     U.S. imports of pineapple juice, 1993-95 . . . . . . . . . . .
25.     U.S. citrus fruit: Utilized production by crop and State, 1992/93-1995/
96
26.     U.S. oranges: Supply and utilization, 1985/86-1995/96. . . . .
27.     United States: Orange juice supply and utilization, 1985/86-1995/96. .
.
28.     Brazilian FCOJ production and utilization, 1990/91-1995/96 . .
29.     Monthly prices of processed oranges and frozen concentrated orange juic
e,
          1993/94-1995/96. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
30.     U.S. grapefruit: Supply and utilization, 1985/86-1995/96 . . .
31.     Grapefruit: Average monthly equivalent on-tree prices received by growe
rs,
          Florida, 1992/93-1995/96 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
32.     Tree nuts: Supply, utilization, and grower prices, by commodity and mar
keting      year, 1991/92-1995/96

List of Figures

 1.     Prices Received by Growers for Fruit and Nuts. . . . . . . . .
 2.     Fresh Fruit: Consumer Price Index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
 3.      U.S. Apple Utilization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
 4.      U.S. Grower Prices for Fresh Apples . . . . . . . . . . . . .
 5.      U.S. Grape Utilization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
 6.      Thompson Seedless Grapes: Consumer Price. . . . . . . . . . .
 7.      U.S. Grower Prices for Fresh Pears. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
 8.      U.S. Pear Utilization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
 9.      U.S. Peach Utilization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10.      U.S. Cherry Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
11.      U.S. Grower Prices for Fresh Strawberries . . . . . . . . . .
12.      U.S. Strawberry Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
13.      U.S. Fresh Kiwifruit Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14.      Bananas: Consumer Price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
15.      U.S. Fresh Mango Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
16.      U.S. Fresh Papaya Supply. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
17.      U.S. Pineapple Consumption. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
18.      U.S. Citrus Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
19.      Fresh-Market Orange Prices in California. . . . . . . . . . .
20.      Florida Oranges: Trees and Output . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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