Subject: Re: Growth of permaculture

From: [email-masked] (David de Vries)
Date: Mon, 19 Jan 1998 20:08:14 +1100

Russ

Thanks for your contribution. I agree with most of your points - some
exceptions:  Mood of the populace and Market saturation.

>On a broader scale, associated with this is the increasing sense of
>insecurity, uncertainty
>and even fear now afflicting previously affluent sections of middle
>class Australia. The climate, bound up with sustained economic, social,
>technological and ecological change, encourages withdrawl into the
>personal domain and holding on to what money you have to cope with an
>uncertain furture. In such a restrained social environment, there is
>less participation in social issues, less voluntarism and reduced
>expenditure on nonessentials such as permaculture courses.

I can see lots of evidence for a 'sense of insecurity, uncertainty
and even fear" but not for it increasing.  If I did, I would welcome it as
a hopeful shift in consciousness that would have the net opposite effect to
what you are witnessing i.e. decreased participation in social issues.  I
am willing to be convinced that you are correct, but these increases and
decreases are not my observation.

Anyone else in affluent countries like to comment?

The demography of the anxious and the motivated is always changing as
different groups feel the pinch or get motivated.
w.r.t. pc marketing/image, the change in these demographics provides
potential influxes of disaffected/motivated Pc recruits e.g. 18 y.o.,
retirees, mortgagees, farmers, ship builders etc.

>Too Many Teachers, Too Few Students...
>
>As for David's question about the viability of teachers working in close
>proximity, that viability depends upon demand for permaculture training.
>
>The situation in northern NSW could serve as an indicator of what
>happens when too many teachers offer similar courses in a region.

>There, with at times up to four permaculture design course providers
>operating within a couple hours drive of each other, (and another two
>course
>providers at Crystal Waters village within four hours drive),
>competition has increased over recent years to such an extent that at
>least one competent provider no longer offers design courses on grounds
>of their unviability.

Getting closer to home and the basis for my enquiries - I have two PDC's
planned for this area (spec. at the Pc Institute) this year.  The number of
PDC's planned this year within 1 hrs drive of each other is 12.  Also a
host of other  adv/intro courses.  Do I look worried?

>In situations of such competition in a limited area, where courses are
>of similar quality and, I would suggest, the market is limited even when
>it draws most of its clientelle from the eastern seaboard capital cities
>and large towns, prices are forced down. Courses attract too few
>participants and only break even, if that. For providers, scheduling
>courses becomes a financially questionable action.

>It's called market saturation and it leads to a shakeout among
>providers...

Do students cause teachers/courses?

Does demand cause the product?

In a sustainable world, Yes.  People buy what they cannot grow or generate
themselves.  Buying product has a real cost (sweat) and is reserved for a
select few items.

In our $rich world, No. Buying materials in has no tangible down-side.
Products generate demand.  Water on tap generates demand for more.  The
commercial world is acutely aware of this.  No-one _needs_ to drink black
carbonated syrupy drinks, yet, these products have generated their own huge
demand throughout the world.  There is no real call to have medicos and
lawyers at more than 1:5000, yet they are present at 1:100 in our society.
They generate their own business.

Practically, how could Pc teachers cause more Pc students?
In priority.
1) Local Marketing
2) Promote more teachers starting up nearby.
Take the example of 'deep fried battery chicken smothered in salt'
marketing.  Without zero demand in a new territory, the company opens 15
stores in one state and advertises.  When demand has been generated, they
open another 15 stores in the same state and 15 in the next one.  And so on
until they have 50 stores in every state. We have all seen it a hundred
times. Pretty good designers those chook executives - of course they had
the benefit of seeing what doesn't work.  What really struggles is opening
isolated stores dotted across the country and confining advertising to one
magazine called Chicken International.
3) Working cooperatively in delivering courses.
4) Promoting national/international profile of Pc.

Saturation at 500 new permaculturists per year! EEEk

"..I have wondered why, after years of permaculture teaching in
Australia and overseas, permaculture practitioner numbers in this
country can still only be counted in the low thousands."RG AAAgh

I am forced to quote the famous permaphilosopher.

 "...it's just that our perspective is subsumed by our immersion in the
subject - we can't see beyond our self-imposed horizon."RG

The Pc growth model at the moment looks like the old fashioned orchard with
4m spacing, a bit of mulch around the base and rank grass in between.
Individual trees (teachers) are isolated and forever worried about
encroachment. I'm suggesting  potential for growth is there and dense
interplanting will provide symbiosis/resilience.

David

---

From: Fiona Campbell + Russ Grayson <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 20 Jan 1998 21:56:12 +1200

Thanks for your discussion David. I've made a few short replies to these
below...

David de Vries wrote:

> and even fear" but not for it increasing.  If I did, I would welcome it as a hopeful shift in consciousness that would have the net opposite effect to what you are witnessing i.e. decreased participation in social issues.  I am willing to be convinced that you are correct, but these increases and decreases are not my observation.<

>From my time there, I find these feelings of insecurity and uncertainty
to be far less obvious on the NSW north coast than here in Sydney. My
guess is that the north coast has that critical mass of people who share
a vaguely similar critique of conventional society and a vaguely general
idea of what needs to be done to change it. Many residents of the north
coast are 'refugees' from the cities who have gone to the north coast in
search of a better life and therefore have the motivation to work to
circumvent feelings of powerlessness. They may even do this by
increasing, rather than decreasing, their involvement in social issues.
This might create a sense of difference and a different outlook. Do you
find any evidence for this David?

The stuff I mentioned about a social sense of insecurity and uncertainty
due to prolonged and sustained social, economic and technological change
is not my idea. Sure, I see evidence to support it, but these are really
current ideas in social analysis. 

The person who put them together into a coherent explanation for me was
the well known Australian social analyst, Hugh Mackay of Mackay
Research, author of the books 'Generations' and 'Reinventing Australia'
as well as the respected Mackay Reports. 

I saw Mackay at a 1997 seminar in Sydney organised by AusAID for people
in the overseas development assistance industry which brought together
over 100 people from development assistance NGOs and other
organisations. His analysis of society appeared to ring true for most of
the people there. I wrote a report on the seminar for the development
assistance agency I work for and, if you send me your mailing address, I
would be happy to send you a photocopy of the document.

It's good that you see a 'hopeful shift in consciousness ' in these
concerns that people have about present trends. Perhaps that could lead
to the development of an effective permaculture response to them. I
think that this is real need in the permaculture movement. For the
people experiencing them, however, indications are that they are not
such a welcoming experience, but a cause of family tension and stress
that gives rise to dysfunctional families and creates tensions. The
trends also, according to Hugh Mackay's research, lead to reduced
financial contributions to NGOs, whether they are overseas development
NGOs or NGOs focusing on local issues - and that could include
permaculture associations.
 
> Anyone else in affluent countries like to comment?<

Comments are most welcome - please contribute. What's the situation in
your country?

> The demography of the anxious and the motivated is always changing as different groups feel the pinch or get motivated w.r.t. pc marketing/image, the change in these demographics provides potential influxes of disaffected/motivated Pc recruits e.g. 18 y.o., retirees, mortgagees, farmers, ship builders etc.<

Any ideas on how permaculture can attract these people?

> Practically, how could Pc teachers cause more Pc students?
 In priority.
 1) Local Marketing<

Yes... catering to local markets is a sound strategy in a bioregional
sense and one that proponents of local economic development have long
proposed. Could it be, though, that even local markets have an upper
limit? 

To speculate, perhaps it is the case that the reliance on capital city
and major urban centre markets to fill north coast permaculture courses
indicates that local markets are near saturation. This is not a
statement of fact, but a question as to whether this could be the case.

 >2) Promote more teachers starting up nearby.<
 
> 3) Working cooperatively in delivering courses.<

Good idea. It assumes that teachers have confidence in each other and,
for the most part, I believe that this is the case.

Despite this, over the years I have seen evidence that teachers can be
quite competitive in filling their courses. In Sydney, our use of a team
teaching approach provides opportunities to teach without teachers
having to run their own courses.  

> 4) Promoting national/international profile of Pc.

Perhaps the new organisation at the Permaculture Institute can bring
improvements here. I think the Permaculture International Journal does a
good job, however more is needed.

> Saturation at 500 new permaculturists per year!<

David - is this an actual annual figure for PDC graduates in Australia?

> The Pc growth model at the moment looks like the old fashioned orchard with 4m spacing, a bit of mulch around the base and rank grass in between. Individual trees (teachers) are isolated and forever worried about encroachment.< 

Your comment about encroachment reminds me of the discussion at a
permaculture convergence several years ago about permaculture teachers
'territories'. It was decided then that there were no territories in
permaculture. Bill Mollison more recently addressed the issue by saying
that permaculture was spread by 'itinerant teachers'.

Perhaps this could be extrapolated to the recent kerfuffle in the USA
where Mollison's course created controversy and some North Americans
responded by saying that the North American permaculture teaching market
should be left to Americans. As we know, permaculture teaching has
always been an international affair and I have this sneaking suspicion
that many Australian permaculturists would see Bill's courses there as a
reversal of the usual North America to Australia imparting of
information about many other things. Don't want to get into that
arguement though.

>I'm suggesting  potential for growth is there and dense interplanting will provide symbiosis/resilience.<

Maybe it could be the case, as you suggest, that many teachers create
their own market for permaculture courses. In Sydney though, we've had
calls from course organisers asking if we knew of any potential students
they could contact so they could fill their course to make it pay for
itself. Courses need a minimum number to cover costs and if this minimum
is not there than the course is economically unviable. 

Hope to hear from you and others.

-- 
PACIFIC EDGE PERMACULTURE
Russ Grayson and Fiona Campbell
PO Box 446, Kogarah NSW 2217 AUSTRALIA

Phone   02-9588 6931    (IDD-61+2+9588 6931)
Fax     9514 2611 (Mark fax: ATTN: RUSS GRAYSON - APACE) 
          (IDD-61+2+9514 2611)
Email: [email-masked]

Permaculture education, publishing, design. 
NSW co-ordinator, Australian City Farms and Gardens Network.

---

From: Fiona Campbell + Russ Grayson <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 20 Jan 1998 21:56:12 +1200

In priority.
 1) Local Marketing<