Subject: FW: Creating a New Civilzation

From: "Robert Chisick (Volt Computer)" <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 3 Apr 1995 17:06:27 GMT

Found on the internet.

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I just finished reading "Creating a New Civilization - The Politics of the
Third Wave" by Alvin and Heidi Toffler.

I just found it in the bookstore last week and I think it just came out.

It has a foreword by Newt Gingrich and he has been waving it in front of
the U.S, Congress, insisting that everybody read it, from what I
understand, which in itself should be about enough to make it a best
seller.

I am not exactly a republican and didn't have any favourable impression of
Newt Gingrich, but this forces me to reevaluate my opinion a bit.

This is a quite subversive and revolutionary book, actually, predicting a
total change of society as we have known it, and the breakdown of most
traditional power structures, to be replaced by something new.

Toffler has written about what he calls the "Third Wave" before, and this
is for that matter merely a further elaboration. But it is putting it in a
context that makes it hit home very well.

The First Wave was the agricultural society. The Second Wave was the
industrial revolution. The Third Wave is the information society.

The Second Wave is symbolized by the factory model. Everything is
mass-produced by centralized, hierarchical, bureaucratic institutions.

Most of our known ways of manufacturing things, of education, of finance,
and of government, are based on Second Wave principles. We have centralized
governments that try to make rules for everything and run things from one
place. We send our kids to learning factories where they are all treated
the same and spit out as standardized products.

The Third Wave is unavoidably upon us. It is driven in part by the
increased speed of everything, the increased inter-connectedness, and vast
amounts of information. Information is increasingly becoming more important
than physical goods.

Second Wave institutions are failing to keep up with Third Wave society.
Governments and centralized mega-corporations and educational institutions
and mass-media are largely unable to keep up with the speed things are
developing at. And to that degree they are failing.

Third wave is represented by smaller teams, flexibility and ability to
change, reduction of overhead, just-in-time principles.

2nd Wave institutions will not voluntarily give up control, even when they
are failing to deliver what is needed. There is therefore a struggle
between 2nd and 3rd Wave institutions, which 3rd Wave will unescapably win
in the end.

In 2nd Wave politics there was the idea of the "majority". If we let the
most people choose some representatives and we let them make rules that
apply to most people, then things will stay pretty well organized and
acceptable.

In the 3rd Wave there is no longer any meaningful "majority". Society is
increasingly divided into special interest groups. There is a large number
of minorities, rather than one majority. And hardly anybody really like
what the governments are doing.

2nd Wave politicians try to undo the change and turn the clock back. If we
can just all have good, decent family values and we can protect the
production facilities of the country, and we spend more money on education,
then everything will be alright.

Mass media are increasingly unable to show what is really going on. They
will mostly give the 2nd wave story, showing us what the centralized power
figures are doing and saying. But that is no longer what matters the most.

It is no longer possible to uphold the illusion of political parties having
clear agendas you can count on. The divisions between political parties,
what is left and right and so forth no longer make much sense.

In the former Soviet Union the Communists are now called "conservatives".
We can no longer classify things in the usual simplistic ways.

2nd Wave economy was based on finite exhaustible outputs. We were talking
about physical goods that took raw materials to make and that had a
tangible permanence to them.

Information, which is the life blood of the 3rd wave, doesn't work by the
same rules. You can use one piece of information any number of times
without depreciating its value. You can not treat it the same as a tangible
product from a factory.

The 3rd Wave and the 2nd Wave are colliding right now. That creates a
considerable amount of chaos and uncertainty and trauma. But there is no
doubt that the 3rd wave will win.

Many people still operate by 2nd wave principles in their own lives. If you
expect that you can just get a good secure job, a nice middle-class house
and car, send your kids to college, and just settle back and wait for
retirement, that ain't gonna work very well anymore.

In the 3rd wave you need to be flexible, ready for change, always learning,
developing your abilities, continuously creating your own opportunities.
You can not expect that some centralized institution is going to do it for
you. You will need to keep up to date with what is going on.

It is of great value to be able to recognize the difference between 2nd and
3rd wave, to know what horse to bet on. Simply put, if it looks like a
factory it is 2nd Wave and it is on its way out. If the solutions proposed
are about the "masses", if they put all eggs in one basket, if they are
vertically, hiearchically controlled, then they are 2nd Wave and they are
going to lose out.

3rd Wave solutions are de-centralized, de-massified, diversified, virtual
organizations with distributed decision making.

Also, 3rd Wave organization re-empowers the home. The idea of us all
driving off to centralized locations to work, be educated, etc, is 2nd
wave. The 3rd Wave is more about working and learning where it makes most
sense, or where you are most comfortable or productive. There will often be
more reason to stay home than to drive off to work.

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FW: Creating a New Civilzation

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From: [email-masked] (Mark Johnston)
Date: 5 Apr 1995 11:28:53 GMT

I read 'The third wave' too as part of my undergraduate course and I
can't remember all the points it made so you may have to remind me/ 
correct me.

I, too am prejudiced aboutNewt Gingrich (even from this side of 
the atlantic!) so this may all be bigotry! I guess that anything 
he is involved with will support his broad personal and 
political aims. He is a product of the present political system 
and has benefitted from centralised, simplified, (LEFT/RIGHT) 
politics. I would be cautious about jumping to conclusions that 
he is throwing it all out the window. The idea of a 
decentralised, vitual society is attractive if the basis of 
interaction of that society is anything other than pure 
currency. I would doubt Mr Gingrich would go so far as to say that!

The role of centralised government as far as I see it is to 
represent the environmental and social needs/ concerns of the 
people of the country. It has to be a majority so as to avoid 
the exesses of regional cannibalism, paedophilia, pollution of 
the environment, rampant destruction of finite resources, racism 
and other little moral fundamentals. That's way you have the 
AMerican constitution I beleive: to lay down fundamental 
principles of right and wrong and how to sustain a democracy.

Within this information has an exciting role to play in 
educating people allowing regional diversity and identity and 
decentralising decision making but power should not be devolved 
absolutely to every member of the electorate without some 
restrictions and _responsibility_ attached, I beleive.

There will always be distinctions between left and right inthe 
broadest terms which is why it is a travesty that this little 
thing called: clause 4 of the Labour party constitution 
(supporting collective ownership and distribution of wealth 
based on means and needs) is so important. LEFT will always 
stand for ensuring basic rights of shelter, income, employment 
healthcare, education (a 'WELFARE STATE'; a dirty word in some 
places, I know!) and social and environmental responsibility and 
security. RIGHT will always stand for the un-fettered rights of 
the individual to look after her/his own accrue vast power, 
influence and money and the principle that anything is available 
if you have the money to pay for it.

Finally: all information is subjective and biased so don't have 
too much confidence in any anarchic devolved information-sharing 
utopia because there are always pirates out there to spread 
discord.

Mark.