Asean urged to discipline burma, keep Rangoon out of informal Dec meeting 2, February 1995 The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) should ex- clude Burma from its palnned first informal meeting of the leaders of 10 Southeast Asean nations in December as parts of disciplinarian measures to persuade Rangoon to follow the association's constructive engagement policy, said chairman of the House committee on foreign affairs Suthin Noppaket. Suthin said Burma's recent attack on the karenstronghold at manerplaw was not in line with Asean's "constructive engagement". "Asea should discipline Slorc in orderto let them known that their actions were way out of line," he told a seminar on human rights situation in Burma following the fall of Manerplaw, organized here on Tuesday by non-government mental Asian Forum. According to Suthin, Thailand should take the initiativebecause it was the chief architect and supporter of the costructive engagement policy. Foreign Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said Thailand would stay neutral with concern to Rangoon's military actions in their own country, and he also defended that constructive engagementwith Burma still had a work-able approach. Suthin suggested that a form of disciplinarian action could be the exclusion of burma from the meeting in December, or establishing certain conditions that the country should abide by - such as the release of all political prisoners - before Burma can become an Asean's guest. "Asean can't just allow burma to sit among its officials without it being set some conditions," he said. Burma was invited last year to attend as Asean annual meeting as guest of the host country, Thailand. Asean officials confirmed that burma's status for attending this year's Asean ministerial meeting in brunei remained in the balance depending on developments in the country. Asean also planned to invite the government heads of Burma, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam to attend ann informal meetings of the ten regional states which is to be held at the same time as the Fifth Asean Summit. "Asean has been using the carrot-and-stick approach with slorc - the carrot been the invitation to join the Asean table. Now, because Slorc have attacked Karen stronghold, the "stick" comes into use to discipline the Burmese regime," Maung Maung said, secretary for internal affairs of Burma's exiled government. According to Suthin, the concept of human rights must have a strong importance within the conditions. He insists that this is not a from of interference with Burma's internal affairs as human rights are universal and Burma's violationof these rights has createdproblems for Thailand, citing the overflow of refugees into the country. Suthin added that Thailand and Asean must have a clear definition as to what the "costructive engage3ment" policy is, as well as in which direction Thailand and Asean would like to see the policy follow. He insisted that the concept of democracy in which the general public can be a part of - as well human rigfhts issues - have a strong presence in this definition and direction. Assoc Prof Chaihoke Chulasiriwong of Chulalongkorn University's Faculty of Political Science said that Thailand must acknowledge that there are certain consequences to this policy and said that Thailand must decide whether the benefits the country would receive are worth the efforts put out. "If one was to closely examine ties (between Thailand and Burma), I'm sure that there are some personal interest involved that the general piblicdoes not know about. Moreover, I'm not so sure whether the benefits that Thailand ahs gained under the constructive engagement have been worth the efforts put in. Because in the end, it's the people herethat has to put up with the burdens involved - such as the influx of refugees," Chaichoke said. He said the Slorc is well aware that Thailandis not sincere in its efforts to legitimize Burma, and said the both countries engaged in this policy because there are national, as well as personal interest involved. (TN) Burma's troops attack last key rebel outposts 2, February 1995 Burmese forces yesterday fought to crush the three remaining rebel strongholds along the Burmese -Thai border as Australian politicans called for international trade sanctions against the military junta. The Burmese troops rained artillery and small arms fire on there rebel strongholds grouped kilometres apart along 384 km of the Thai-Burmese border. Minn Aung Myint, of the All Burma Students' Democratic Front, said there had been "intense fighting" but declined to give casualty figures. The students' group is one of several opposition groups who have refused to give in to the junta's attacks along the border. "We can defend our strongholds," Minn Aung Myint said. The fighting has forces about 15,000 refugees flee the areas, most of them across the border into Thailand, said Aung Naing, chairman of the students' northern division. Minn Aung Myint said some of refugees did not have enough shelter and were within the range of artillery. About 40 of them escaped from being forced to act as porters for Burmese troops in the war zone, he said. The junta on Friday took the rebel headquarters of Manerpplaw, 240 km from the Burmese caplital of Rangoon. The base was the junta, and its loss has intensifed the rebels' resolve to hang onto their smaller bases. Rebels sources said six tanks, 55 trucks filled with artillery and bullets, and 100soldiers had been sent to reinforce the 1,500 Burmese troops attacking the strnghold of Kawmoora, 200 km south of Manerplaw. The base, surrounded by a minefield and thick wall, is being defended by 800 rebel forces. Relief workers and rebels say the Burmese leadership, known at the Slorc, appears to be preparing to fight until it seizezs Kawmoora, as wellas the other strogholds of Dawn Gwin, 32 km from Manerplaw, and the unnamed territory about 240 m to the south. "When it comes to sheer viciousness and murderous brutalityit's hard to beat the Slorc," said Australian Sen Vicki Bourne, spokeswoman for foreign affairs and human rightsfor the Democracy Party. "Slorcshould be isolated by the international community." Bourne called for international economic and trade sanactions against the junta in a statement issued on Tuesday in Australia and received yesterday in Bangkok. The call came just one day before Thailand is to sign a 30 years agreement to buy annually 10 billion baht ($400 million) in natural gas from the Burmese junta. The Australian Democrats criticised the recent visit toBurma by Australia's former promer minister, Bob Hawke, as head of a business delegation. He was jeered by about 20protesters upon his return yesterday. Australian Foreign Minister Gareth Evanssaid on tuesday Hawke should have used "his undoubet stature and reputationinternationally to make some very important points about the need for change in Burma." The United States called on Saturday for Burma to end the bloodyattacks. "Weurge the regimeto avoid the path of confrontation and international isolation, to end the violence," the White House said inn a statement. Burme has beenisolated politicallyby major world players such as the United States, but trade with the juntahas been growing in recent years. The junta announced in 1992 a unilateral ceasefire against the dozen or so insurgences and convinced most of them to negotiate an end to their fighting. But the junta broke that ceasefire in December to crush the handful of insurgences that have resuld to give in. The main rebels targeted, the Karen, have beenfighting since1948 forgreater autonomy from the central govcernment. They are closely aligned with students and politicans who fledRangoonafter the junta crushed a pro-democracy revolt in 1988, killing hundreds, and then ignored the results of the1990 poll it lost to the opposition. Sources close to the rebelssaid the collapse of the rebels' remainingthree strongholds could result in tens of thousands of refugeedsfrom rebel areas where more than one million people reside. Col Palagkul Klahan, Thailand's military spokesman, said Bangkok did not want the refugeesto stay isdefinitely on Thai soil and would push them back as soon as the situation permitted. A government attack on kawmoora would have to come along a several-hundered-metre passage studded with mines and within range of a network of bunkers. Previous governement attempts have cost the lives of hundreds of government troops. Tens of thousands of Karens, military and civilian, have taken refugee and Thailand since last week. The Thai military keeps tight rein on them. The Karen leader, General Bo Mya, remains in Burma, according to a KNU source. Meanwhile, the strongman of the Burmese governemnt, Gen Khin Nyunt, said on Tuesday that the fall of Manerplaw would be the satrt of an "era of peace" in the region, according to Burmese national radio. Karen refugees at Ban Mae Tawla have appealed to Thai officials to give them shelter and other humanitarian assistance to supplement the basicaid they getfrom non- governmental organisations. A Karen leader, Po Dah, said that so far no Thai government agency has extended assistance to karen refugees who have taken temporary refugee in Thailand. Threenon-government organizations - Aide Medicale International, International ResuceCommunity and the UK-based Camridge CCP - have helped provide medicaltreatment, food, toolsand shelter for thousands of karen who crossed the border to stay at temporary camps along the Moei and Salwee. (BP) The good life? 2, February 1995 I would like to commend Singapore on its treatment both in education and healthcare of its children. But my question to Liew Choon Bon from Singapore'sPublic Relations Department is, why it stops at Singapore's borders. I read recently that Singapore is Burma's number one tradepartner. Does this mean Singapore condones Burma's treatment of its children and adults? Can Singapore guarantee the consumer of Singapore goods that Burma's children did not suffer so others can profit? Until I have that proof, I personally will boycott all goods manufactured in Singapore. Because of their close ties with Burma they are in the best position to help. If Singapore cotinues its trade, the answer can only be that money is more important than the lives of children in Burma. I encourage everyone to boycott productsfrom Singapore until they stop this trade with the Slorc. Singapore is probably the Slorc's best friend, but the Burmese people'sworstenemy. (TN) Burma keen on energy related projects 2, February 1995 Burmese Energy Minister Khin maung Thein idicated his country's willingness to take part in energy-related projects with Thailandwhen he paid a courtesy call on Interrior Minister Sanan Kachornprasart yesterday. Maj-Gen Sanan said the Burmese minister is scheduled to sign a contract with the Petroleum Authority of Thailand tooday at Government House on the long-term import of natural gas to be developed from Burma's Yadana offshore gas field. The agreement follows the signing last September of a memorandum of understanding for Thailand to import natural gas from the field. He said the singing of the contract will improve relations and understanding between the two countries. The Interrior Minister said he had the Burmese minister also talked about the Salween hydro-electric dam project between Thailand and Burma. Burma has shown willingness to take part in energy-related projects both at the Salween River and other sources of energy, he said. Asked if the problem of minority groups in Burma would affect the project, he said it was Burma's duty to tackle its internal problems. "Burma should take responsibility for the laying of gas pipelines in its territory." (BP) New advice: Learn to love Slorc now, collect handsome profits later 2, February 1995 GARY BIESTY AND JAMES CHAPMAN, PARTNERS WITH JOHNSON STOKERS & MASTER, OFF THIS UNUSUALLY UPBEAT ASSESSMENT OF BURMA'S ECONOMIC PROSPECTS As the investment climatein new markets become morecompetitive, foreign investors, in their continuing serch for new opportunities, are now turning to Burma. Despite political and foreign exchange difficulties, Burma would appear to hold cosiderable investment potential. Foreign businessmen are filling the twice-weekly fights from Hong Kong and the daily hop from Bangkok. The authorities in Burma have labelled 1996 "Visit Myanmar Year". Hotel booking for the end of February are already difficult during the week of the Myanmar Trade Fair which concides with the UK embassy-sponsored British Week. Burma has past connections with Scotland. Many of the most successful companies in Burma's heyday were established and /or run by Scots, for example, the Burma Oil Company, the Irrawaddy Flotilla Company and Stell brothers.Burmathen were very different from Burma today. At that time Burmawas the richest country in Asia and the world's biggest exporter of rice. With a land mass approximately twice the size of France and the UK combined, with along coastline, with vast natural resources including oil and gas, and with a population of around 45 million people, ingredients are there for yet another Asia tiger. Due to the political climate, Burma has been denied multilateral aid and development has been slow. But many foreign governments now appear to be adopting a new approach in dealing with Slorc and are actively encouraging investment. The international business community, particularly in Thailand (a mere 50 minutes away by air) and Singapore, has been quick to respond. The hotel industry, always the first wave of investors in any new market, is there in force, with new hotels sprouting up in Rangoon and Mandalay. Some of these projects, like the 450-room hotel development of Singapore's Straits Steamship Co or the US$150 million Shangri-La project, are significant investments by any standard, and particularly in a developing country which has been shut off from the world for more than 30 years. Burma has all the ingredients which have lured foreign investors to other emerging markets. It has a large, well educated workforce, a high literacy rate and 45 million potential consumers of western products. However, unlike many of its Asian neighbours, Burma has a .egal systembased on English law. The Myanmar Companies Act, for example, is very similar to an old version of the British Companies Act. legislation in Burma isproduced in both burmese and English. The accountancy system has british origins. Although alot of dust has gathered during the period of isolation, the basis for a clear legal environment for investors is there. This is quite different from Vietnam, a communist country with a French colonial history and varied legal influences including those of the former Eastern Bloc, and where new legislation is produced in large quantities, adopted from various jurisdictions and not readily accessible to investors and their professional adviser. There is reason to suggest that Burma could develop much faster than Vietnam if the momentum could be kept up and foreign exchange problems and political uncertainties resolved. The Union of Myanmar Foreign Investment Law (FIL) was enacted in November 1988. The Foreign Investment Commission is the government body responsible for approval of all foreign investment under the FIL. To date 112projects with direct foreign investment have been approved by the Foreign Investment Commission with a total investment value, according to the commission, of US &3,5 billion. The Foreign Investment Commission meets frontightly, and assuming that all the paperwork is in order, the commission says that approval can be obtaied in 2.3 weeks from the date of submission. Under the FIL, foreign ivestors are permitted to from either 100%-owned companies or joint-venture companies. A joint- venture company must have a minimum of 35% of its share capital in foreign ownership. Wholly foreign-owned companies appear to have been the preferred vehicle for foreign ivestors. In a government-invested joint venture with foreign investos, the Burmese Government's interest is not likely to be lees than 50% and frequenly will be 51%. Export-oriented projects, projects for the exploitation of natural resources requiring large investment, high-technology projects, projects which create new employment projects are given priority. The governemnt is encouranging investment in agriculture, aquaculture fisheries, tourism, energy, mining and transport. The interest of foreign investors in the tourism industry is evidenced by the many hotel projects visible in the major cities. The government has set a target of 500,000 vistors for Visit Myanmar Year in 1996.With a dearth quality hotel rooms, there is a degree of urgency to a accommodate the expected influx of foreign tourists. In addition, foreign companies may establish a place of business or branch in Burma, Some 15 foreign banks have set up representative offices. They are not, as yet, allowed to establish ful branch operations, because the government wants to protect the local blanking industry. A permit to Trade issued by the Ministry of trade is a prerequisite for all companies with foreign shareholders, whether the investment is under the FIL or under the Myanmar Companies Act. Tax incentives to foreign investors include: * A three year tax holiday, extendable for a further reasonable perod in some cases. The standrd tax rateis 30%. * Exemption from tax for reinvested profits. * Up to 50% tax relief on profits derived from exports. * Allowable deduction from taxable profits for income tax of foreign workers paid for by the employer. * Allowable deduction from taxable profits for research and development costs. * The right to accelerate depreciation. * Exemption from customs duties for imported raw materials for the first three years of commercial production./ * Exemption from customs duties for machnery and equipment used during the construction period. Foreign currency convertibility ia a significent deterrent to investment in BUrma. Unless an investor is able to sell his products or bill for his services in hard currency, he is required to convert local kyatat the official rate. The official rate of the Kyat to the US $ is 6-1, against the black marketrate of 110-1. Although these are problems that must be overcome, it is not difficult to see BUrma becoming another economic tiger. Burma has great potential in the field of aquaculture. According to Burmese fisherman, Burma is the only country where fish die of old age. Despite the problems associate with the political situation and and foreign exchange difficulties, there is a growing momentum for foreign investment in Burma, and the time to start looking at the potential of this countyr is now. (BP) KNU guerrillas take BUddhist defectors' temple camp 2 February 1995 Yindee Lertcharoenchok The Nation ETHNIC Karen guerrillas have overrun a Buddhist mutinners had established a stronghold, seizing a large quantity of arms and ammunition and causing an undisclosed number of casualities, sources said. Last Thursday evening, KNU managed to capture was the culmination of several days of heavy mortors shelling and attacks by KNU ground forces on soldiers from a breakaway Karen Buddhist faction launched after the expiry of a DFec 31 deadline set by the KNU for their surrender. |nformed border sources said 41 mutinners gave themselves up after the fall of their stronghold although an unspecified number of them managed to escape befpre the advance of KNU forces. However, the capture of the temple does not single any end to the conflict between the KNU and soldiers from the breakway Democratic Kayin (Karen) |Buddhist Association, the sources said. The KNU, in a press release, said it did not yet have accurate figures for the number of soldiers killed and wounded in the attack. One informed source said the KNU managed to acore a direct hit on the mutinners' arms depot, causing a massaive explosion which is beleive to have caused many casualties. In another press statement released last Sunday, the KNU announced it would take "effective action" against the mutinners _ who defected and formed the rival Democratic Kayin (Karen) Buddhist Association on Dec21-unless they surrendered by Dec31. "THe KNU is determined to take effective action against those who foster factionalism and collaboration with the enemy (Slorc) by using flase excuses related to religion,|" the statement said. Earlier, about 250-300 rank and file KNU members of the Buddhists faith accused Karen leader of religious discrimination and of not promopting Buddhist but the organization's leadership is dominated by Christians. Simmering resentment on the relegious issue recently erupted into open conflict. At least two armed clashes were reported between KNU and dissident forces aftre the KNU expelled a Buddhists abbot, U Thuzana, from the Sob Moei temple accusing him of spying for the Burmese Junta-Slorc. One KNU officer claimed that the KNU had a document written by U Thuzuna which proved that the abbot decided to leave the temple of his own accord. Imformed border sources said the Democratic Alliance of Burma, an umbrella organization of a dozen ethnic and pro-democracy groupsa, was trying to intervene in order to bring a quick end tyo the in-fighting which they fear could damage the whole BUrmese opposition movement if armed clashes continue for much longer. It is unclesr whether those who managed to escape from the temple were able to join up with the remaining mutinners, who have set up their headquarter near a BUrmese army base. (TN) Rangoon troops 'helped Karens take KNU base' 2 february 1995 Aung Hla Tun Reuter A SENIOR Burmese general has said that government troops helped breakaway Karen rebels capture the KAren NAtional Union's MAnerplaw headquarter, newspapers reported. The satatement by Lt Gen Khin Nyunt, Secretary One of the ruling Slorc, was the first detailed official account of Rangoon's role in the fighting which culminated in the sacking of MAnerplaw on Friday. Speaking to officials and civilians at a meeting on Tuesday in Pa-an, capital of KAren state in Southeast Burma, Khin Nyunt said ther breakaway Democratic Kayin (Karen) Buddhist Army (DBKA) beleived the KNU was not sincerely seeking peace and had asked for help from the Tatmadaw, the country's armed forces. "So, for the sake of peace and tranquillity in Kayin [Karen] State and security of the life of the people, the Tatmadaw provides necessary assistance to the DKBA group," the official New Light of Myanmar newspaper quoted him as saying. Khin Nyunt said 13 underground armed groups had now accepted government offers of a ceasefire. Referring to the KNU's leader Bo Mya and his headquarters at Manerplaw near the Thai border, Khin Nyunt said that "whenever he got into a tight spot due to offensives he fled into the other country and came back when it clamed." The Slorc general accused Bo Mya and other Knu leaders of living in luxury and said they were continually inventing excuses not to discuss peace terms, in order not to lose power. "Base-level youths and middling members of the KNU underground armed group realized this and they wanted peace," said Khin Nyunt, adding that in 1994 armed clashes broke out between the DKBA and KNU. "Finally, the KNU headquarters at Manerplaw was attacked and captured by the DKBA group which broke away from the KNU group," he was quoted as saying. The SLORC had helped the Buddhist Karen group because its "attitude and concept" were in accordance with its own. Pochana wants daily update border police on Burma-Thai frontier situation National Police Chief Pochana Boonyachinda has instructed police forces alonf the Thai- Burmese border to be on alert and to file a daily report of the border situation following last week's Burmese offensive on Karen guerrillas. In his instructions on security measures along the border dated Jan 31, Pol Gen Pochana mentioned that fighting between Burmese army troops and Karen forces "has a tendency to escalate" and will drive many Karen villagers living along the common border into Thailand _ influx which can affect border order and security. In his report, Pochana asked border police froces to prepare themselves by strengthening border security measures and giving protection to local agencies. The police should coordinate closely with administrative authorities and local forces in overseeing refugees based on government policy with emphasis on humanitarian and human rights principles, his report stated, adding that they should also help Thai villgers affected by the fighting and provide appropriate assistance to officials from both government and private sectors. Lastly, Pochana ordered the police to closely follow any movements along the border with Burma and file daily reports with the Police Department. The police chief made his instructions after several thousands of Karen refugees fled the fighting across the Moei and Salween rivers into Thailand. While the government has estimated that 6,000 arrivals are taking refuge in Thailand, mainly in Mae Hong Son and Tak provinces, private relief agencies assisting the group asid about 10,000 have arrived in Thailand. Interior Minister Sanan Kachornprasart, who made a stunning statement on Tuesday that the refugees "will be pushed back [to Burma] without having to wait for fighting to cease", appeared to have softened his stance yesterday. He said that the situation of the 6,000 refugees seeking temporary asylum here does not affect Thailand, and added that any members of the armed factions who flee into the country will be disarmed. Sanan told Thai border villagers not to be concerned with "military spillovers" , assuring them that authorities will provide protection to Thai citizens first. Defence Minister Vijit Sookmark yesterday quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Surin Pitsuwan as telling Tuesday's Cabinet meeting that the United States "has praised Thailand for its humanitarian treatment of the refugees". Vijit said the Third Army Region Command is taking care of the refugees and will also disarm any forces crossing the border intoThailand. burma, he said, understood the Thai position "very well" as "we are assisting the Karen on a humanitarian basis". When asked if Karen leader Gen Bo Mya is taking refuge in the Kingdom, the defence minister said he did not know. A Reuters report from Mae Sot's Tak district quoted an officer of the Karen National Union (KNU) as saying that Gen Htaw Hla, the Karen commander of Kawmoora, another Karen stronghold opposite this northern province, has vowed to defend his camp with his life. The officer said about 300 fighters of the breakaway Democratic Kayin Buddhist Army (DKBA) have joined the 1,500 Burmese government troop reinforcements sent to Kawmoora. "Gen Htaw Hla tols us that he will hold this camp with his life and he will never order the camp to be abandoned," the officer added. Burmese gunners maintained their mortar and artillery bombardment of Kawmoora on the west bank of the Moei river in southeastern Burma, but Thai army officers at the scene said the pressure appeared to have eased. "Late last night there were about 20 artillery shells fired into Kawmoora, but that was unusually light compared with the hundreds they fired in the past week," said a Thai army officer standing near the river which marks the border between Thailand and Burma. DKBA is the military wing of the Democratic Kayin Buddhist Organization (DKBO) which was formed last month by a breakaway group of Karen Buddhist guerillas after they mutinied against the Christian-dominated KNU leadership. (TN) Burma's War 2 February,1995 On Friday, under heavy shelling from the Burmese army, members of the Karen ethnic group evacuated from Manerplaw, near the Thai border, their capital of 20 years. We suspect this is only the opening round of a new offensive against Burma ethnic minorities. The burmese army has been trying to impose a military solution on that country's amolderomg ethnic qusetion since taking power in 1962. The only result has been the impoverishment of a potentially rich nation. Now the latest batch of generals-calling themselves the State Law and Order Restoration Council, or Slorc-seem intent on reenacting this tragedy. Last week, they reneged on their own unilaterally declared ceasefire and attacked the headquarters of the Karen National Union, one of the oldest and most-respected of the autonomy-seeking ethnic groups. Government propoganda maintains that the troops were only backing up Buddhist dissidents who were rebelling against the KNU's predominantly Christian leadership. More reliable reporting suggests this was a Burmese military operation all the way. There's good reason to worry that this is preliminary to a broader assult. Unlike some of the ethnic groups, the Karens weren't involved in drug-trafficking, and they hadn't broken the ceasefire. They were in the military sights for sheltering hundreds of pro-democracy dissidents from Rangoon and other cities. These refugees had taken up arms after Slorc turned it's machine guns on thousands of peaceful demonstrators and later annulled democratic elections. The regime's biggest fear at the time was that these urban dissidents woul;d unite with the well-armed rebels in the hinterlands. So Slorc moved in recent years to patch up ceasefire deals with most of the ethnic rebels yet it was clear that these were only for the sake of expediency - the regime consistently avoided entering yalks toward a permanent settlement. Rather, it's pretty clear that Burma's generals were using the lull merely to prepare another throw of the military dice. The army has nearly doubled in size - it now numbers almost 300,000 men. The regime has taken delivery of $2 billion worth of new tanks, combat aircraft and other weapons. This hardware comes courtesy of Beijing, which abruptly switched sides after decades of filtering arms to the various rebel groups through the now-defunct Communist Party of Burma. Some of Slorc's neighbours may still put stock in the reformist imagery Slorc has been hanging out - its televised meetings with Aung San Suu Kyi, its talk of a new constitution, its embrace of foreign investment. (As its troops were rolling over Manerplaw, Rangoon announced a $400 million-a -year naturalgas deal with Thailand.) But the same old thugs still hold power. And while economic progress may have grease the skids, real change won't come about until they're gone. Slorc has no legitimacy in the eyes of the Burmese people to tackle the country's problems. It has the blood of thousands on its hands - murder, torture, and slave labour are its everyday ways of doing business. The regime's ceasefire deals have been mostly with groups affiliated with the now-defunct Burmese Communists. These ex-Chinese allies have used the peace to launch the most dramatic explosion in opium and herrrroin production the world has ever seen. (Indeed, before launching the assult on Manerplaw, Slorc was telegraphing that its real target was opium warlord Khun Sa.) Neither the opium problem nor anything else about Burma's future will be settled without the establishment of a government with a legitimate mandate from the people. THe Burmese army has spent 30 years demonstrating its incompetence to solve the country's woes, let alone quell the ethnic insurgencies. Some of Burma's neighbours may have sorrowfully concluded that only strong-arm tactics can put Burma on the road to Asean miraclehood. It would be one thing if the regime were content to quietly evolve. It's quite another if the army is going to make another attempt to cementing itself into power by waging renewed warfare against the ethnic minorities that make up nearly 30 per cent of Burma's population. After last week, the advocates of "constructive engagement" may have to think again. If their economic and diplomatic support only props up the Burmese military through another circle of war, repression and chaos, these countries themselves will pay a big part of the price - in the form of refugees, guns, and drugs spilling across their borders. (TAWSJ)