------------------------ BurmaNet ------------------------ "Appropriate Information Technologies, Practical Strategies" ---------------------------------------------------------- The BurmaNet News: September 1, 1995 Issue #212 Noted in Passing: The struggle for democracy and human rights in Burma is a struggle for life and dignity. It is a struggle that encompasses our political, social and economic aspirations. The people of my country want the two freedoms that spell security: freedom from want and freedom from fear. - Aung San Suu Kyi (quoted in Keynote Address) HEADLINES: ========== NGO FORUM: OPENING KEYNOTE ADDRESS BY AUNG SAN SUU KYI THE NATION: BURMA'S RICE EXPORTS BOOM THE NATION: ICRC COMPLETES FORMALITIES OF WITHDRAWAL FROM BURMA THE NATION: ESTATE AND OIL SUPPLY THE NATION: FREE PARKING TO GO IN RANGOON STREETS BKK POST THAIS WATCH TROUBLESOME BURMESE BORDER BKK POST: MAN LEADS BURMESE DELEGATION TO WOMEN'S CONFERENCE ASIAWEEK: TARGETING KHUN SA FEER: HOW LONG CAN JUNTA IGNORE SUU KYI'S CALL FOR TALKS? FEER: LADY IN WAITING ---------------------------------------------------------- Produced with the support of the Burma Information Group (B.I.G). The BurmaNet News is an electronic newspaper covering Burma. Articles from newspapers, magazines, newsletters, the wire services and the Internet as well as original material are published. 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Look under the International Political Economy section, then select Geographic_Archive, then Asia, then Burma. ---------------------------------------------------------- BURMANET SUBJECT-MATTER RESOURCE LIST BurmaNet regularly receives enquiries on a number of different topics related to Burma. The scope of the subjects involved is simply too broad for any one person to cover. BurmaNet is therefore organizing a number of volunteer coordinators to field questions on various subjects. If you have questions on any of the following subjects, please direct email to the following coordinators, who will either answer your question or try to put you in contact with someone who can: Arakan/Rohingya/Burma- [volunteer needed] Bangladesh border Art/archaeology/: [volunteer needed] Campus activism: [on summer vacation] Boycott campaigns: [Pepsi] wcsbeau@superior.ccs.carleton.ca Buddhism: Buddhist Relief Mission, c/o NBH03114@niftyserve.or.jp Chin history/culture: plilian@asc.corp.mot.com Fonts: tom@cs.colgate.edu History of Burma: zar1963@violet.berkeley.edu Kachin history/culture: 74750.1267@compuserve.com Karen history/culture: 102113.2571@Compuserve.com Karen Historical Society Mon history/culture: [volunteer needed] Naga history/culture: [volunteer needed] [Burma-India border] Pali literature: "Palmleaf" c/o burmanet@igc.apc.org Shan history/culture: [volunteer needed] Shareholder activism: frdc@igc.apc.org "Attn. S. Billeness" Tourism campaigns: bagp@gn.apc.org "Attn. S. Sutcliffe" World Wide Web: FreeBurma@POBox.com Volunteering: christin@ksc.net.th [Feel free to suggest more areas of coverage] ---------------------------------------------------------- OPENING KEYNOTE ADDRESS BY AUNG SAN SUU KYI NGO Forum on Women, Beijing '95 31 August 1995 (editor's note: Aung San Suu Kyi did not attend the conference, because she was afraid the SLORC might not let her back into Burma. Supatra Masdit, the NGO Forum organizer, planned to videotape Aung San Suu Kyi's speech, but she was denied a visa. With the help of friends inside Burma, Aung San Suu Kyi was able to make and send out a video of herself giving the speech.) It is a wonderful but daunting task that has fallen on me to say few words by way of opening this Forum, the greatest concourse of women (joined by a few brave men!) that has ever gathered on our planet. I want to try and voice some of the common hopes which firmly unite us in all our splendid diversity. But first I would like to explain why I cannot be with you in person today. Last month I was released from almost six years of house arrest. The regaining of my freedom has in turn imposed a duty on me to work for the freedom of other women and men in my country who have suffered far more -- and who continue to suffer far more -- than I have. It is this duty which prevents me from joining you today. Even sending this message to you has not been without difficulties. But the help of those who believe in international cooperation and freedom of expression has enabled me to overcome the obstacles. They made it possible for me to make a small contribution to this great celebration of the struggle of women to mould their own destiny and to influence the fate of our global village. The opening plenary of this Forum will be presenting an overview of the global forces affecting the quality of life of the human community and the challenges they pose for the global community as a whole and for women in particular as we approach the twenty-first century. However, with true womanly understanding, the Convener of this Forum suggested that among these global forces and challenges, I might wish to concentrate on those matters which occupy all my waking thoughts these days: peace, security, human rights and democracy. I would like to discuss these issues particularly in the context of the participation of women in politics and governance. For millennia women have dedicated themselves almost exclusively to the task of nurturing, protecting and caring for the young and the old, striving for the conditions of peace that favour life as a whole. To this can be added the fact that, to the best of my knowledge, no war was ever started by women. But it is women and children who have always suffered most in situations of conflict. Now that we are gaining control of the primary historical role imposed on us of sustaining life in the context of the home and family, it is time to apply in the arena of the world the wisdom and experience thus gained in activities of peace over so many thousands of years. The education and empowerment of women throughout the world cannot fail to result in a more caring, tolerant, just and peaceful life for all. If to these universal benefits of the growing emancipation of women can be added to the "peace dividend" for human development offered by the end of the Cold War, spending less on the war toys of grown men and much more on the urgent needs of humanity as a whole, then truly the next millennia will be an age the like of which has never been seen in human history. But there still remain many obstacles to be overcome before we can achieve this goal. And not least among those obstacles are intolerance and insecurity. This year is the International Year for Tolerance. The United Nations has recognized that "tolerance, human rights, democracy and peace are closely related. Without tolerance, the foundations form democracy and respect for human rights cannot be strengthened, and the achievement of peace will remain elusive." My own experience during the years I have been engaged in the democracy movement of Burma has convinced me of the need to emphasize the positive aspect of tolerance. It is not enough simply to "live and let live": genuine tolerance requires an active effort to try to understand the point of view of others; it implies broad-mindedness and vision, as well as confidence in one's own ability to meet new challenges without resorting to intransigence or violence. In societies where men are truly confident of their own worth women are not merely "tolerated", they are valued. Their opinions are listened to with respect, they are given their rightful place in shaping the society in which they live. There is an outmoded Burmese proverb still recited by men who wish to deny that women too can play a part in bringing necessary change and progress to their society: "The dawn rises only when the rooster crows." But Burmese people today are well aware of the scientific reasons behind the rising of dawn and the falling of dusk. And the intelligent rooster surely realizes that it is because dawn comes that it crows and not the other way round. It crows to welcome the light that has come to relieve the darkness of night. It is not the prerogative of men alone to bring light to this world: women with their capacity for compassion and self-sacrifice, their courage and perseverance, have done much to dissipate the darkness of intolerance and hate, suffering and despair. Often the other side of the coin of intolerance is insecurity. Insecure people tend to be intolerant, and their intolerance unleashes forces that threaten the security of others. And where there is no security there can be no lasting peace. In its "Human Development Report" for last year the UNDP noted that human security "is not a concern with weapons -- it is a concern with human life and dignity." The struggle for democracy and human rights in Burma is a struggle for life and dignity. It is a struggle that encompasses our political, social and economic aspirations. The people of my country want the two freedoms that spell security: freedom from want and freedom from fear. It is want that has driven so many of our young girls across our borders to a life of sexual slavery where they are subject to constant humiliation and ill-treatment. It is fear of persecution for their political beliefs that has made so many of our people feel that even in their own homes they cannot live in dignity and security. Traditionally the home is the domain of the woman. But there has never been a guarantee that she can live out her life there safe and unmolested. There are countless women who are subjected to severe cruelty within the heart of the family which should be their haven. And in times of crisis when their menfolk are unable to give them protection, women have to face the harsh challenges of the world outside while continuing to discharge their duties within the home. Many of my male colleagues who have suffered imprisonment for their part in the democracy movement have spoken of the great debt of gratitude they owe their womenfolk, particularly to their wives who stood by them firmly, tender as mothers nursing their newly born, brave as lionesses defending their young. These magnificent human beings who have done so much to aid their men in the struggle for justice and peace -- how much more could they not achieve if given the opportunity to work in their own right for the good of their country and of the world. Our endeavours have also been sustained by the activities of strong and principled women all over the world who have campaigned not only for my own release but, more importantly, for our cause. I cannot let this opportunity pass without speaking of the gratitude we feel towards our sisters everywhere, from heads of government to busy housewives. Their efforts have been a triumphant demonstration of female solidarity and of the power of an ideal to cross all frontiers. In my country at present, women have no participation in the higher levels of government and none whatsoever in the judiciary. Even within the democratic movement only 14 out of the 485 MPs elected in 1990 were women -- all from my own party, the National League for Democracy. These 14 women represent less than 3 percent of the total number of successful candidates. They, like their male colleagues, have not been permitted to take office since the outcome of those elections has been totally ignored. Yet the very high performance of women in our educational system and in the management of commercial enterprises proves their enormous potential to contribute to the betterment of society in general. Meanwhile our women have yet to achieve those fundamental rights of free expression, association and security of life denied also to their menfolk. The adversities that we have had to face together have taught all of us involved in the struggle to build a truly democratic political system in Burma that there are no gender barriers that cannot be overcome. The relationship between men and women should, and can be, characterized not by patronizing behavior or exploitation, but by METTA (that is to say loving kindness), partnership and trust. We need mutual respect and understanding between men and women, instead of patriarchal domination and degradation, which are expressions of violence and engender counter-violence. We can learn from each other and help one another to moderate the "gender weaknesses" imposed upon us by traditional or biological factors. There is an age old prejudice the world over to effect that women talk too much. But is this really a weakness? Could it not in fact be a strength? Recent scientific research on the human brain has revealed that women are better at verbal skills while men tend towards physical action. Psychological research has shown on the other hand that disinformation engendered by men has a far more damaging effect on its victims than feminine gossip. Surely these discoveries indicate that women have a most valuable contribution to make in situations of conflict, by leading the way to solutions based on dialogue rather than on viciousness or violence? The Buddhist PAVARANA ceremony at the end of the rainy season retreat was instituted by the Lord Buddha, who did not want human beings to live in silence "like dumb animals." This ceremony, during which monks ask mutual forgiveness for any offence given during the retreat, can be said to be a council of truth and reconciliation. It might also be considered a forerunner of that most democratic of institutions, the parliament, a meeting of peoples gathered together to talk over their shared problems. All the world's great religions are dedicated to the generation of happiness and harmony. This demonstrates the fact that together with the combative instincts of man there co-exists a spiritual aspiration for mutual understanding and peace. This forum of non-governmental organizations represents the belief in the ability of intelligent human beings to resolve conflicting interests through exchange and dialogue. It also represents the conviction that governments alone cannot resolve all the problems of their countries. The watchfulness and active cooperation of organizations outside the spheres of officialdom are necessary to ensure the four essential components of the human development paradigm as identified by the UNDP: productivity, equity, sustainability and empowerment. The last is particularly relevant: it requires that "development must be BY people, not only FOR them. People must participate fully in the decisions and processes that shape their lives." In other words people must be allowed to play a significant role in the governance of their country. And "people" include women who make up at least half of the world's population. The last six years afforded me much time and food for thought. I came to the conclusion that the human race is not divided into two opposing camps of good and evil. It is made up of those who are capable of learning and those who are incapable of doing so. Here I am not talking of learning in the narrow sense of acquiring an academic education, but of learning as the process of absorbing those lessons of life that enable us to increase peace and happiness in our world. Women in their role as mothers have traditionally assumed the responsibility of teaching children values that will guide them throughout their lives. It is time we were given the full opportunity to use our natural teaching skills to contribute towards building a modern world that can withstand the tremendous challenges of the technological revolution which has in turn brought revolutionary changes in social values. As we strive to teach others we must have the humility to acknowledge that we too still have much to learn. And we must have the flexibility to adapt to the changing needs of the world around us. Women who have been taught that modesty and pliancy are among the prized virtues of our gender are marvellously equipped for the learning process. But they must be given the opportunity to turn these often merely passive virtues into positive assets for the society in which they live. These, then, are our common hopes that unite us -- that as the shackles of prejudice and intolerance fall from our own limbs we can together strive to identify and remove the impediments to human development everywhere. The mechanisms by which this great task is to be achieved provide the proper focus of this great Forum. I feel sure that women throughout the world who, like me, cannot be with you join me now in sending you all our prayers and good wishes for a joyful and productive meeting. I thank you. ***************** THE NATION: BURMA'S RICE EXPORTS BOOM AUGUST 31, 1995 by Rajan Moses (Reuter) Burma's rice exports are ballooning as harvests become more bountiful and a growing global shortage of the staple sparks increased demand, official and industry sources said this week. Rice is a major revenue spinner for Burma, which is one of the poorest countries in the world and hopes to regain its lost status as a leading global exporter of rice. In 1934, Burma posted a record high rice export of 3.4 million tonnes, but a decline set in rapidly as the country went into a state of self-imposed isolation in the early 1960s. Official data shows that in the last 1994/95 (April-March) fiscal year, Burma's rice exports leapt to over one million tonnes from 261,000 tonnes exported in 1993/94. For the current fiscal year 1995/96, Burma's military rulers or the State Law and Order restoration Council (Slorc) have set a rice export target of 1.5 million tonnes. Private and independent cargo surveyor SGS (Myanmar) Ltd's general manager U Kyaw Tin confirmed that Burmese rice exports are likely to spiral in the months ahead. "Burma's rice production will rise and I think the government can achieve 1.3 million tonnes of the 1.5 million tonne export target this fiscal year," he told Reuters. SGS data, which are computed on a calendar year basis, showed that Burma's rice exports in all of 1994 totalled 618,787 tonnes and are likely to hit one million tonnes this year. In the first eight months of this year, the export figure had already surpassed the 1994 total and stood at over 620,000 tonnes, the surveyor's figures show. The biggest importer of Burma's 25 per cent broken rice this year is drought-affected Indonesia, which has bought about 75 per cent of all exports, traders said. Burmese rice export prices have surged to about US$250 a tonne from around $225 a tonne late last year, they added. Official statements and traders said the secret behind Burma's sharp growth in rice has been the introduction of fast-growing, high-yielding strains of paddy. Improved irrigation in the Irrawaddy Delta rice bowl has also made a big difference, the Agriculture Ministry said. About 16 million acres (6.4 million hectares) of paddy fields are expected to be planted in fiscal 1995/96, up from nearly 14.25 million acres (5.7 million hectares) in 1994/95, according to government statistics. Production is targeted to hit 1.0 billion 46-pound (20.9 kg) baskets of unmilled rice (paddy) during the 1995/96 fiscal year, up from 881 million baskets in 1993/94 and 813 million baskets in 1992/93, according to official data. Burma, with its 45 million people, is now said to be self- sufficient in rice. The government estimates about 700 million baskets of paddy are needed to feed Burmese annually. But industry sources said wastage is rising in farmlands, due to a lack of infrastructure, modern machinery and storage facili ties. (TN) THE NATION: ICRC COMPLETES FORMALITIES OF WITHDRAWAL FROM BURMA August 31, 1995 The office of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Rangoon was officially closed on Aug 15 and its chief representative Friedrun Medert left the country last Saturday for her new appointment in Cambodia. The departure took place after the Burmese junta's about-face on its promise to allow the Geneva-based organization free access to political prisoners. Francois Zen Ruffinen, head of Asia and the Pacific Media Liaison Office, said yesterday that the ICRC bureau in Rangoon was officially closed on Aug 15, but its representatives remained to sell off office equipment and complete necessary paper work. Medert left Rangoon last Saturday and is currently on holiday before taking up her new appointment in mid-October as chief of the ICRC office in Phnom Penh, he said. Two other Red Cross workers also left Rangoon after the office closed. The ICRC decided to leave Burma after there was no improvement towards ICRC requests for access to political detainees in Burmese jails. Although its office in Rangoon is now closed, ICRC still has left avenues open for serious negotiations with the Burmese junta, known as the State Law and Order Restoration Council (Slorc), on issues concerning humanitarian interests in the country, Zen Ruffinen said. The ICRC had been involved with humanitarian activities in Burma since 1986. Despite the closure of the office, ICRC assistance to the Burmese Red Cross programme in indentifying war amputees in border areas and transporting them to Mandalay and Rangoon for the fitting of artificial limbs would continue. In June, an ICRC regional representative travelled to Rangoon and officially informed Slorc of its decision to withdraw from Burma because of the failure in negotiations with the government to allow its workers access to political prisoners. Slorc informed ICRC on March 21 that 'it took no account of the customary procedures for the right to visit places of detention as allowed in all other countries". Negotiations began in 1993 when Slorc became more willing to listen and consider ICRC requests. Progress was made when Slorc leaders informed US Congressman Bill Richardson, during his visit to Burma in February last year, that Rangoon would comply with ICRC requests. (TN) THE NATION: ESTATE AND OIL SUPPLY August 31, 1995 Mitsui and Co of Japan will build an industrial zone in Rangoon and supply Burma with five million barrels of crude oil every year, business sources said yesterday. A Mitsui delegation led by Akira Utsumi, adviser to the company's president, is currently in Rangoon negotiating the details with Burmese officials. On Tuesday, the delegation called on Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt, secretary of the State Law and Order Restoration Council, the country's ruling military junta. It also held talks with the chairman of Burma's investment commission, the minister for national planning and economic development, and various officials of the Construction Ministry. Details of the talks were immediately known, but according agreements reached so far Mitsui would supply five million barrels of crude oil annually from 1996 and build an industrial zone in Rangoon, the sources said. Burma at present produces 15,000 barrels of crude oil a day, a decline from 32,000 barrels a day in 1980. Burma has been importing crude oil since then. The country has a refining capacity of about 60,000 barrels of crude oil a day at three major refineries, including one built by Mitsui at Mann, central Burma. (TN) THE NATION: FREE PARKING TO GO IN RANGOON STREETS August 31, 1995 Free parking in downtown Rangoon will soon become a thing of the past as authorities attempt to regulate the number of cars in the capital's increasingly congested streets, official press report said. >From Sept 1, private cars would be charged 10 kyats_ US$ 1.67 at the official rate_an hour for parking in the city centre between 8am and 6pm, city authorities said in state newspapers. The directive said official, military and diplomatic cars would exempt from the tax, as would ambulances, fire engines and commuter buses. Traffic is fast becoming a problem in the city of about four million people, with large numbers of people commuting to work in Rangoon from satellite towns. Recent official figures said some 200,000 of the country's 275,000 registered vehicles were plying the streets of the capital. The figure does not include military vehicles. The new measures would add to the financial burden of private car owners, who already pay hefty premiums for insurance, annual registration fees and wheel tax_totaling nearly 5,000 kyats. The new regulation is also seen as another way of raising funds for the city development committee, which is responsible for developing Rangoon as part of the "Visit Myanmar (Burma) Year 1996" campaign to attract tourists. (TN) BKK POST: THAIS WATCH TROUBLESOME BURMESE BORDER August 31, 1995 Thai forces are watching the border with Burma following a clash between the United Wa State Army and the Mong Tai Army. The clash resulted in military personnel from both sides intruding into Doy Pa Da in Mae Ai District of Chiang Mai. The Naresuan Task Force chased them back across the border on Tuesday. Soldiers in the Third Army and Border Patrol Police in Chiang Mai, Chaing Rai and Mae Hong Son have since stepped up their watch on the area. Task force Chief-of-staff Col Tomorn Kittisophon said about 100 Rangoon troops supporting the UWSA had set up two strongholds close to the border opposite Mae Ai District. The task force warned the troops to move back at least two kilometres deeper into their territory. The MTA received the same warning after attempting to set up camps too close to the border. Col Tomorn said the Army would not interfere with the fighting and the MTA troops showed willingness to heed the warning. Rangoon troops and the UWSA have continued to shell MTA bases for three consecutive days. Both sides have allegedly tried to cross into Thailand to gather food. Burapha Task Force Deputy Director Maj-Gen Pairoj Wannatrong said he told soldiers to prevent this. The task force yesterday seized horses laden with more than a ton of rice in Wiang Haeng Sub- district, Chiang Mai. The rice, bought from a Thai trader, was about to be taken across the border. It was unclear who had sent for the rice. A Burmese who accompa nied the horses was charged with illegal entry. Maj-Gen Pairoj said he believed that during the past year at least 100 tons of food had been smuggled out of the country to assist the minority armies. The MTA was yesterday resisting the Burmese Government's warning to abandon its stronghold at Yon. Rangoon has threatened to crush the MTA if it does not withdraw from the stronghold before the end of next month. (BP) BKK POST: MAN LEADS BURMESE DELEGATION TO WOMEN'S CONFERENCE August 31, 1995 (abridged) Burma's male-led delegation to the Beijing women's conference has been asked to explain to the meeting how Burmese women are already equal to men and so have no need to demand more equality, official media reported yesterday. Lt Gen Khin Nyunt of the ruling State Law and Order Restoration Council (Slorc) made the comments to the delegation, led by Maj Gen Soe Myint, minister of social welfare, relief and resettle ment, before it left to attend the United nations Fourth Conference on Women. Burma's most famous woman politician, Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, has sent a videotape speech to be played at the non- governmental organisation (NGO) forum on women. The speech made by the recently-freed opposition leader was due to be played on August 31 at the NGO forum which runs parallel to the UN conference. Khin Nyunt told the Burmese delegation it does not need to demand the rights and equality called for by other women at the conference. The Burmese representation at the Beijing conference is not to make demands for Burmese women, but to present objective conditions of the rights they enjoy, he said. If there were any accusations laid against Burma at the confer- ence, the delegates need to explain the rights Burmese women enjoy and refute any accusations most firmly, the official media reported. (BP) ASIAWEEK: TARGETING KHUN SA - A SHAN WARLORD AND DRUG BARON FACES TOUGH TIMES September 1, 1995 EVER the self-publicist, Shan leader Khun Sa has frequently compared himself to a tree: a political Christmas tree for others to decorate, or a tree with golden leaves that others shake for their own enrichment. But now the 62-year-old warlord and drug baron, who used profits from the opium trade to build up a formidable rebel army and create a self-styled independent Shan state in eastern Myanmar, is being shaken to the roots. He was indicted in 1990 by the US for narcotics trafficking. Fearful that they might be implicated in the heroin trade, his allies and benefactors- among them some powerful Thais-have been distancing themselves from him. The primary motive for talking out Khun Sa has nothing to do with the heroin trade, says a Bangkok based analyst. It's basically to curry favor with the US and to help destroy the resistance in Shan state. Thai security officials now say that Khun Sa has three options: jail in Myanmar, China or US. Even Khun Sa's once tightly disciplined Mong Tai Army is showing cracks. Reports suggest that it lost over 25% of its troops in just a few months. Those who have bolted, either to create their own insurgent groups or to defect to the ruling State Law and Order Restoration Council (Slorc), claim that under Khun Sa's regime drug trafficking has taken precedence over more legiti mate Shan nationalist aspirations. The biggest blow to the army was the recent desertion by a trusted officer, Maj Karnyord, and 500 men. They broke away to form the Shan State National Army, which has reportedly swelled fourfold since then. Other ethnic minority rebel groups have not fared well either. Last year the Karen National Liberation Organization, one of the largest insurgent groups, suffered a severe blow when Slorc supported faction, the Democratic Karen Buddhist Organization, split from its ranks. With help from the breakaway elements, government troops were able to capture the rebel bases at Manerplaw and Kawmura earlier this year. Unable to come up with a new leadership formula that would provide fresh impetus to the rebellion, the Karens have reluctantly entered into preliminary cease-fire negotiations with Slorc. The government has been less successful in dealing with the Shans. A two month offensive that ended in May is believed to have resulted in heavy casualties for Slorc troops. Travelers in central Myanmar at the time reported seeing wounded government soldiers being ferried to Yangon on scheduled civil fights. Khun Sa's Mong Tai Army is thought to number more than 6,000, which means it is still the largest single force challenging the junta. Its arsenal is also well-stocked, containing even surface-to-air missiles. Still, just a year ago, Khun Sa claimed to command 25,000 troops. Time is running out for Khun Sa. He is feeling the pressure from efforts by Thai authorities to tighten the flow of arms: resupplies are becoming harder to obtain and more expensive. The poor weather has not helped, reducing the yield of the poppy harvest this year. Heroin production in areas controlled by Khun Sa is down by a third. And observers are now waiting for Slorc to launch the final strike against him. Government offensives in the last two months have resulted in Skirmishes with the Shan and substantial damage to Karenni rebel positions. Thai forces in the Third Army Region are bracing for an overdue mid-monsoon offensive. In the last few years, the rainy season has become less of a problem, and some believe that a monsoon offensive is not as impossible as it once was, says a Western observer. Stung by the recent setbacks, Khun Sa has been keeping an unusually low profile all year, rarely hosting visitors at his Homong headquarters near the Thai border. This has led to speculation that he is either seriously ill or planning to step down. A reshuffle in the past two weeks has resulted in a more collective leadership in the of an 11 member Shan Sate Adminis trative Council. And Zao Gangade, chairman of the Shan State National Congress, has been mentioned as a possible successor to Khun Sa. But all this is generally viewed as little more than a cosmetic ploy. Khun Sa's predicament comes amid increased tension along the Thai-Myanmar border. The number of refugees- mainly Karen and Mon in Thailand is now approaching 100,000, the highest ever. Myanmar authorities have closed of all border crossing points, including major ones at Tachilek and Myawaddy. The loss to Thailand in border trade has been estimated at $28 million a month. A final key gateway in the south at Victoria Point was closed after an incident where four Myanmar fishermen were murdered by their Thai crewmates aboard a trawler belonging to Myanmar Narong Canning, a Thai fishing concessionaire. While the historically antagonistic countries have seldom been on worse terms, the situation may soon change. Thai Defense Minister Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyudh is planning an informal but high profile September visit to Yangon to smooth relations. "It's been a long time since I've seen my old colleagues," he told reporters recently. It the Thais and their colleagues in Yangon decide to drop their differences long enough to cooperate, then Khun Sa may be in for a lot more trouble. (AW,SEPT1,1995) FEER: WINDS OF CHANGE - HOW LONG CAN JUNTA IGNORE SUU KYI'S CALL FOR TALKS? August 31, 1995 THE people come quietly in twos and threes. Soon they number in the hundreds, gathered before the grey, metal gate. They come every week to listen to Burma's most famous dissident, Aung San Suu Kyi. Since her release in July after six years of house arrest, Suu Kyi has turned the gate, once the boundary of her prison, into a pulpit. Standing on a ladder behind it, she preaches patience and determination in the quest for democracy. Progress, she tells her supporters, will come through negotiation and compro mise. Suu Kyi is not just speaking to the crowd. She is also sending a message to the generals who have ruled Burma for more than 30 years: She wants to talk. The question is : Do they? The junta's grip on power has never looked stronger, thanks to a powerful security apparatus, ceasefire deals with ethnic rebels and the seeds of economic recovery. Yet the economy desperately needs foreign aid and investment to bloom, and how quickly that flows in depends in large part on how the generals treat Suu Kyi. These days when economics and politics are so closely linked, those who are involved economically can hardly avoid being more positive in bringing about the necessary changes, Suu Kyi told the REVIEW, urging foreign investors and aid donors to support the evolution towards democracy in Burma. More than a month after her release, both sides are still cautiously feeling their way ahead. We do have a line of communication with the authorities. I am not prepared to say more than that, Suu Kyi says. To speak too soon could hurt the process towards dialogue. The leaders of the military junta, the State Law and Order Restoration Council, or Slorc, have made no public response to Suu Kyi's call. But a leader of Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy says some military officers have reacted positively. They say they appreciate the tenor of Aung San Suu Kyi's statements. Avaro De Soto, assistant secretary general of the United Nations, met with military leaders and Suu Kyi in mid August, trying to jump start a dialogue. When he left, there was still no sign that talks were imminent. Yet Suu Kyi says talks are inevitable. Even wars end at the negotiating table, she says. I'm sure one day we'll end up at the negotiating table, and the sooner the better for the country. If talks materialize, the first item on Suu Kyi's agenda is to stake out some common ground with the generals. Both sides, she says, want to work for prosperity and stability. Her main short-term goal, she says, is the release of all political prisoners. Hundreds still languish in jail, including about a dozen MPs elected in 1990 polls that were won by the NLD but then annulled by the military. We can guarantee that there won't be any trouble if our people are released, promises a leader of the party. Our position is not to encourage radicalism. Next, the NLD would like to see a gradua easing of martial-law restrictions. Political activity has been stifled. Gatherings of more than five people remain illegal. If they wanted to, the authorities could arrest Suu Kyi and the people who come to hear her speak on the weekends. Both sides will have to make some tough choices before the end of October, when a convention drafting guidelines for a new national constitution is set to reconvene. The generals are seeking to formalize their leading role in politics. Among other provisions, the new constitution contains an article reserving a quarter of the seats in parliament for military men. The Slorc must decide whether it will invite Suu Kyi to take part in this process. And the NLD must decide how far it is willing to go with the Slorc's plan. The timing of any move, however, is up to Burma's military leaders, who are stronger than ever and firmly in control of politics. The army has cut deals with most ethnic-minority insurgent groups, halting decades of fighting in border areas. And it has effectively suppressed dissent across the country. No one has forgotten the 1988 uprising, when troops killed and injured thousands of anti-government protesters. And people are still angry that the military refused to accept the NLD's 1990 election victory. But for the moment, fear has the upper hand. There is no free press, and Burmese who talk to foreign diplo mats and journalists are questioned by military intelligence. Those who defy the regime are thrown in jail. Three students arrested earlier this year for shouting slogans at the funeral of Burma's first president, U Nu, were sentenced recently to seven years in prison. We always have to watch out. We have no rights, says one businessman in Mandalay. Nobody dares to say anything. Nobody dares resist. It would be like beating your head against a wall. In an effort to ease the dissatisfaction with its repressive rule, the government in 1988 began dismantling the stultifying socialist system it imposed on the country in 1962. The generals promulgated a liberal foreign-investment law, offering tax breaks to businessmen who set up shop in Burma. Private banks are allowed to operate again and state-owned enterprises are being privatized. The result: Signs of economic life are returning to Rangoon. Workers with their Longyis hiked up above their knees clamber around hundreds of construction sites. Scores of new hotels and restaurants have opened. There are even traffic jams down-town in the afternoon. The government has approved foreign-investment projects worth $3 billion since it decided to open up the country, and the influx of capital has helped get the economy moving again. But so far, the benefits have come only a handful of Burma's 45 million people. The country remains one of the poorest and least-development in the world. The United Nations figures that per-capita GDP was just $220 in 1993. Just one in four children completes primary school, malaria remains the leading cause of death, and most villages are without electricity. Indeed, most people are suffering as the country makes the difficult transition from central planning to a market economy. Inflation has been running above 30% annually since 1993. The prices of rice and other staples are soaring. The government also has raised the price of electricity and fuel, which is strictly rationed. In the socialist days, our salaries were small. But prices were low enough that we could buy what we needed, says one civil servant. Now, we have to struggle to survive. More worrying, to some, is that the recent investment boom could run out of steam. Most of the money that has poured into the country has been to fund hotel projects and the extraction of timber, oil and natural gas. To widen the scope of investment and attract a substantial number of manufacturing industries in the electricity, transportation and telecommunications infra structure. That, of course, takes a lot of money. The government has signed an agreement with Marubeni of Japan to serve as an adviser on infrastructure projects. But so far, private companies have shown little interest in stepping into the breach. Long-term investments in infrastructure are still seen as too risky, given Burma's uncertain economic and political future. That has left the governent to fend for itself. It has been funding new roads and other public works out of its own coffers, and running large budget deficits to do so. It has made up for the shortfall by printing money, adding to inflaction. Despite the government's efforts, it simply does not have the resources to do everything that needs to be done. We've reached a plateau, says one Burmese businessman. I can't see things getting much better until we get foreign aid. Foreign aid and loans from the World Bank and others would help spread the wealth and lay the groundwork for future economic growth. But donor countries, with the exception of China, stopped giving aid after the army's bloody crackdown on anti-government demonstrations in 1988. Loan programmes, too, were suspended. Many analysts suspect that economic motivations are the main reason the government decided to free Suu Kyi. The generals no doubt hope her release will pave the way for a resumption of foreign aid and loans from multilateral lenders. In the wake of Suu Kyi's release, Japan announced that it would consider resuming its aid programmes. A high-level mission was to visit Rangoon before the end of August to discuss this with the government. The United States and other Western countries have taken a harder line, saying that the Slorc must talk to Suu Kyi and make substantial progress towards re-establishing democracy before aid can be restored. Washington sand its allies also have effectively blocked Burma's access to loans from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. But do Burma's leaders think the economic situation is critical enough to make political changes? The answer seems to be no. We are going at our own pace, says Set Maung, one of the chief economic advisers to the government. Things are improving, but it's a slower improvement than we would be having if we had foreign aid. Even so, he says, I don't think we would bend over backwards to do things that aren't appropriate foe us. We are talking measures in every field at our own pace. Set Maung and other government officials emphasize Burma's ability to be selfsufficient. He notes that only about half of Burma's arable land is cultivated, a phenomenon he attributes to socialism. Now that the government is allowing farmers to sell more of their crops on the free market, he expects production to increase. The government is hoping to use exports of rice and other agricultural commodities to boost its meagre foreign exchange reserves. Government planners expect Burma's other rich natural resources will provide handsome foreign-exchange earnings as well. The jewel in the resource crown is natural gas. When a pipeline to carry natural gas from the Gulf of Martaban across Burma to Thailand is completed in 1998, hard-currency earnings will soar. The Slorc's message is clear: We can take care of ourselves. But the Slorc has to decide how long people will be content to just get by, with no say in how they are governed. Farmers recent the government's relentless push for more output and its mandatory purchases of crops. Even those who have benefited most from the recent spate of economic growth have few nice things to say about the government. "I really hate the Slorc," says a Burmese executive at a foreign firm in Rangoon. "Aung San Suu Kyi is the real representative of the Burmese people. If the generals don't respect her, they don't respect us." Despite such comments, the mood in Burma now is certainly for compromise and not confrontation. People seem to have no stomach for the kind of violence that the military meted out in 1988. The government rules this country with guns, says a former student activist. Most of my friends went to jail after the uprising. Now they're out. A lot of them jobs. They don't want to risk it all now. The National League for Democracy says it is in control of its forces and wants to talk. The ball, it would seem, is now in the generals' court. (FEER,Aug31,1995) FEER:LADY IN WAITING August 31, 1995 (Far Eastern Economic Review) Since her release from six years of house arrest, Aung San Suu Kyi has been calling for perseverance in the pursuit of democ racy in Burma. In an interview with correspondent Gordon Fairclough, the Nobel Prize winner suggests that foreign aid donors and investors shouldn't rush in too hastily. Fairclough: What can other countries do to help Burma? Suu Kyi: There has been a debate over how far pressure and constructive engagement have worked. There is no argument about the fact that change is necessary. There is only argument over how change can be brought about. These days when economics and politics are so closely linked, those who are involved economically can hardly avoid being more positive in bringing about the necessary changes. Fairclough: What do you think about Japan's decision to resume aid? Suu Kyi: I think they should watch and see a bit and not rush into it. Aid should get to people who need it most and it should be given in the right way at the right time. If it is a reward for my release, I'm just one political prisoner released, and there are others as well. The change in condition of just one person is not enough. Fairclough: What about the businessmen here? Suu Kyi: I really think they take a broader view of the returns they can expect from the country. A country that is stable---offers more economic opportunities. In a country where people feel their will is flouted, where they are frustrated by stability. Even it they're just interested in making a lot of money, in the long-term, that's more likely in a country with a stable society. Fairclough: Do you think that the government's effort to liberalize the economy has made much of an impression on people? Suu Kyi: I think it has made an impression on some people. The vast majority of people in Burma live in rural areas. For them, I don't think we can say the economic changes of the past six years have had that much impact. Fairclough: How do you see your role in politics in the months and years ahead? Suu Kyi: Well, I'm not thinking years ahead. In the months ahead, obviously my role is to try to get dialogue started as soon as possible. I hope the military will understand that in the end, the only way to solve the country's problem is through dialogue. Fairclough: What if Slorc doesn't talk to you? Suu Kyi: Well, we'll have to persevere. In the end, all problems end at the negotiating table. Even wars end at the negotiating table. I'm sure one day we'll all end up at the negotiating table, and the sooner the better for the country. Fairclough: Can the National League for Democracy live with a constitution that sets aside parliamentary seats for military officers? Suu Kyi: The National League for Democracy promised people that we would give them a genuine democratic system. That was the promise on which the NLD won the elections, and we will have to honour that promise.