------------------------ BurmaNet ------------------------ "Appropriate Information Technologies, Practical Strategies" ---------------------------------------------------------- The BurmaNet News: February 3, 1996 Issue #337 Noted in Passing: Now we are fully involved in economic development work. We don't have enough time for a dialogue with her. - Lt. General Kyaw Ba, Minister of Hotels and Tourism on Aung San Suu Kyi. (see BKK POST: JUNTA "NOT FREE" TO HOLD TALKS WITH SUU KYI) HEADLINES: ========== BKK POST: JUNTA "NOT FREE" TO HOLD TALKS WITH SUU KYI BKK POST: BURMESE TROOPS PREPARE TO LAUNCH MASSIVE ASSAULT ON KARENNI POSTS NATION: SUU KYI WARNS ASEAN TO SET CONDITIONS FOR BKK POST: BO MYA VOWS TO CARRY BATTLE TO THE STREETS BKK POST: JUNTA MAN: INFLATION NEEDS TO BE TAMED BKK POST: SLORC GIVES KHUN SA HOUSE IN INNER RANGOON BKK POST: SLORC URGED TO TAKE ACTION ON TAK RAIDERS NATION: KHUN SA'S SECRET NEGOTIATION W1TH THE SLORC NATION: LET A THOUSAND A POPPY POPPIES BLOOM BKK POST: SURRENDER OF KHUN SA ALLOWS SLORC TO FOCUS FREE BURMA WWW: HEAR ASSK SPEECH -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BKK POST: JUNTA "NOT FREE" TO HOLD TALKS WITH SUU KYI February 1, 1996 By Supapohn Kanwerayotin and Nussara Sawatsawang Rangoon The junta is too busy preparing for Burma's economic takeoff to hold talks with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, a senior military official said yesterday. Economic factors had to take priority over talks with the leader of the National League for Democracy, said Hotels and Tourism Minister Kyaw Ba. "This is not the time for dialogue but the time to work, he said. "We must first see to it that the people get rich." "Now we are fully involved in economic development work. We don't have enough time for a dialogue with her," said the official of the State Law and Order Restoration Council. "We must focus en boosting agricultural production and creating jobs for the people," he said. On Tuesday, a gathering of central and local official in a quarterly development review concluded with Gen. Than Shwe, SLORC chairman, saying political stability would facilitate the drafting of a constitution. The task is being carried out by the National Convention, whose delegates were hand-picked by the SLOC. Gen. Than Shwe urged "constant vigilance against possible destructive and disruptive acts from inside and outside to hinder the emergence of the constitution". According to Lt. Gen. Kyaw Ba, the NLD leader would also be denied a role in the economic development drive because she has "no experience in the country" and "lacks historical background" of the independence struggle. The junta had weathered hardship with scant foreign aid in recent years and therefore saw no need to win United States' endorsement for access to loans from financial institutions such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. "The Japanese, Germans, French and South Koreans are developing a positive attitude towards us," he said. "The United Nations Development Program has given us $.52 million in aid this year and in the very near future and in a big moment, more donors. "We are not worried. As long as we keep up our good work, they can come and see with their own eyes that they should give loans to Myanmar (Burma)," he said. On Tuesday, a gathering of central and local officials in a quarterly development review concluded with Gen Than Shwe, SLORC chairman, saying political stability would facilitate the drafting of a constitution. The task is being carried out by the National Convention, whose delegates were handpicked by the SLORC. Gen Than Shwe urged "constant vigilance against possible destructive and disruptive acts from inside and outside to hinder the emergence of the Constitution". According to Lt-Gen Kyaw Ba, the NLD leader would also be denied a role in the economic development drive because she has "no experience in the country" and "lacks historical background" of the independence struggle. The junta had weathered hardship with scant foreign aid in recent years and therefore saw no need to win United States' endorsement for access to loans from financial institutions such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. "The Japanese, Germans, French and South Korea: developing a positive at towards us," he said. United Nations Develop Programme has given u million in aid this year a the very near future in a big moment, more donor "We are not worried long as we keep up our work, they can come an with their own eyes that should give loans to Myanmar (Burma)," he said. ************************************************* BKK POST: BURMESE TROOPS PREPARE TO LAUNCH MASSIVE ASSAULT ON KARENNI POSTS February 2, 1996 BURMESE troops massed for an assault on the southern outposts of ethnic Karenni rebels along the Thai border awaited supplies after separate divisions took hill positions to the north, a Karenni source said yesterday. About 4,000 Burmese troops had massed near Kauk Kauk in the south of Burma's eastern Kayah state opposite Mae Hong Son, and a party of 70 porters was being escorted into the area with supplies, the source sald in a statement. The porters, usually villagers abducted and forced into service, included more than 10 women, the statement said. An offensive was expected in the Kauk Kauk area when the additional food and ammunition arrived, it said. The Karennis have only about 1,000 armed fighters, a Karenni source said. On Monday, another 4,000 Burmese troops pushed Karenni National Progressive Party forces out of hilltop bases to the north in the Hta Na Khwe area with a two-pronged assault, the sources said. KNPP forces were pinned down with heavy guns while forces of the Karenni National People's Liberation Front were "forced to lead the assault," the statement said. The KPNLF was a "communist" group which split from the KNPP: more than six years ago and has been cooperating with the Burmese governmett for the paG -year, the sources said. The ruling junta has had a string of successes along the Thai border in the last year, but the Karennis and other larger ethnic groups still hold territory in the interior and on the borders with Laos and China. Ethnic Shan groups will continue the struggle for an independent state in eastern Burma abandoned by opium warlord Khun Sa, Shan sources said Wednesday. "The Shan State National Army has about 8,000 troops including runaways from Khun Sa, and the SSA has about 4,000 troops, so they have about 12,000 men altogether," a Shan source said. The MTA was believed to have about 20,000 troops under arms last year before a breakaway group led by Kan Yod accused Khun Sa of favouring ethnic Chinese over Shan leaders. Kan Yod had about 3,000 fighters when he formed the SSNA late last year. This climbed to about 6,000 by the time Khun Sa surrendered as former MTA troops crossed to his side in groups of a few hundred at a time, the source said. The SSNA's strength rose further as surrendering MTA soldiers, given money and promlsed a ride home, were taken as labourers to build a new road to their former headquarters at Ho Mong another Shan source said. The Burmese government has stationed about 5,000 troops at Ho Mong, near the border with Mae Hong Son, and another 6,000 further east at Bang Kawm Kaw, north of Chiang Mai, the sources said. The State Army, military arm of the Shan State Progressive Party, has existed since 1964._ AFP ***************************************************************** NATION: SUU KYI WARNS ASEAN TO SET CONDITIONS FOR BURMA'S ENTRY February 2, 1996 Reuter Singapore_ Burma's prodemocracy opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi said yesterday the Association of Southeast Nations should set conditions for Burma's military leadership before welcoming it into Regional grouping. Burma is seeking membership of Asean which groups Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippine, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.. In an interview with Television Corporation of Singapore(TSC) in Rangoon, Aung San Suu Kyi said Asean had long pursued a policy of constructive engagement towards Burma. But she said the policy should involve the country's democratic forces as well as the Burma's military government. Constructive engagement is meant to bring about change but now many people see constructive engagement as an endorsement of the status quo. "There should be constructive engagement with both sides, that is to say those are against democracy. Otherwise it cannot really be called a constructive engagement," she said. ************************************************************** BKK POST: BO MYA VOWS TO CARRY BATTLE TO THE STREETS OF RANGOON February 2, 1996 Teakaplaw, Burma, AP THE leader of the last major ethnic rebel group holding out against Burma's military government vowed on Wednesday to carry their battle to the streets of the country's cities. Gen Bo Mya said he planned soon to launch an urban guerrilla campaign to try to relieve pressure from government troops on his outnumbered Karen fighters in their strongholds along Burma's eastern border. This shift in tactics is the only way the Karens can expect to win autonomy from the military rulers, he said. "We have to use conventional warfare. We have to use guerrilla warfare. We're going to make more attacks in the cities," he said. Bo Mya refused to say what kind of targets would be chosen in Rangoon and other population centres. But he said his fighters would take care not to attack civilians. "We don't want to be terrorists," he said. Bo Mya, resplendent in a new camouflage uniform, munched on betel nuts as he spoke at his jungle base three kilometres from Tak. His heavy jowls and relaxed manner bore out his reputation as Burma's "gentleman guerrilla." But Bo Mya, 69, seemed to have few illusions about the growing threat his people were facing. Government troops, their confidence boosted by the recent surrender of Shan drug warlord Khun Sa, are slowly massing for what could be a decisive push against the Karens. One informed source in the Karen National Union said a government attack was expected as soon as next month, once Burmese troops complete their current offensive against the Karennis, a neighbouring ethnic group related to the Karens. With fresh supplies from China, the Burmese army has been growing stronger, while Bo Mya's fighters have been forced to depend on captured weapons and home-made ammunition, Karen leaders said. At the same time, they hoped to see an end to foreign business deals with Burma. Trade and investment would only prop up the Burmese economy and strengthen the ruling generals, they said. "If we don't get help from other countries or the international community, we can't defeat them for sure," Bo Mya said. The KNU source said the Karens were planning urban attacks in part to scare off' potential foreign investors. *************************************************************** BKK POST: JUNTA MAN: INFLATION NEEDS TO BE TAMED February 2, 1996 Rangoon, AP, AFP A LEADING member of the military government acknowledged the need to tame soaring consumer prices in remarks carried Wednesday in state-run media. Inflation in Burma is estimated at 35 per cent a year by foreign economists. Despite increasing foreign investment, which is bringing a new-found prosperity to a small segment of the population, many Burmese are quickly losing ground to spiralling prices. Gen Maung Aye, deputy leader of the State Law and Order Restoration Council said the way to curb inflation is to control production costs. Rampant inflation has been a theme touched upon by prodemocracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi. In her weekly talks in Rangoon, and in her column in a Japanese newspaper, she has detailed the difficulties average people face because of rising prices. Her comments about the economy are a means of indirectly criticising the government. Maung Aye attributed the inflation to market-style economic reforms instituted by the government which have produced some growth and therefore higher prices. The current crop of leaders came to power in 1988. Since that time they have increasingly blamed the previous regime of Gen Ne Win for wrecking the economy. Visiting Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar said Wednesday a mutual cooperation agreement to be signed by Sri Lanka and Burma will herald a new chapter in bilateral relations. Kadirgamar, in talks with Burmese Foreign Minister Ohn Gyaw, also signalled Sri Lanka's interest in a proposal to form a sub-regional economic grouping of five countries bordering the Bay of Bengal. The agreement with Burma would provide a framework for cooperation in trade and economic, social and cultural matters, he said. "It is quite significant, and is what I consider to be the commencement of a new chapter in our old relations," he said. Kadirgamar, who arrived Monday at the head of a 22-member delegation, also said he had held wide-ranging talks with Ohn Gyaw on "ongoing developments in the Asian region." All of Asia is alive and "on the move," and will become "the growth centre of the world" by the next century, he said, adding that "it is only natural for Asian countries to begin getting closer together." Kadirgamar said he and Ohn Gyaw also discussed the Thai proposal in early January that India, Sri Lanka Bangladesh Burma and Thailand form a "Bay of Bengal Rim Countries" group that would focus entirely on economic cooperation. "I gave Sri Lanka's consent to belong to that regional grouping ... and I understand that Myanmar is considering the matter," he told reporters. Kadirgamar said he also had discussed with Burmese leaders the possibility of opening direct sea and air links between Rangoon and Colombo. ************************************************************* BKK POST: SLORC GIVES KHUN SA HOUSE IN INNER RANGOON February 2, 1996 (abridged) KHUN SA has been given a house in central Rangoon as a reward for his defection to the State Law and Order Restoration Council, a Mong Tai Army source said yesterday. The heroin magnate was taken by helicopter from his former base in Ho Mong, Shan State, on Friday to Rangoon where the house was handed over. SLORC officials invited Khun Sa to move in but he asked for time to make a decision and returned to Ho Mong the same day, said the source. Khun Sa, he said, was benefiting from his close connection with SLORC leaders, particularly Gen Ne Win, who had virtually adopted him as a son. ************************************************************** BKK POST: SLORC URGED TO TAKE ACTION ON TAK RAIDERS February 2, 1996 Tha Song Yang THAILAND yesterday demanded that Burma find those responsible for Tuesday night's attacks on Tak villages in which a number of people were killed and many others injured. The demand was made in an aide memoir submitted to officials of the State Law and Order Restoration Council in Myawaddy by administrators of this border district. The letter said the attacks believed to have been carried out by members of the renegade Democratic Karen Buddhist Army, would damage relations with and Burma. The letter was signed by Col Sajja Yodphet, deputy commander of the Fourth Regiment's Special Task Force who is also acting chairman of the Local Thai-Burmese Border Committee. "Thailand will deal with any similar attacks in the future by employing drastic measures including the use of military force as such incidents are considered to be encroachments into Thai territory and a threat to our sovereignty as well as that of Burma," the letter read. Shortly before midnight on Tuesday DKBA troops attacked a border checkpoint and a temple in Mae Usu village with rocket-propelled grenades and machine gun fire killing a police officer. The DKBA troops then robbed two nearby villagers before retreating to Burma. Almost at the same time, another group of DKBA troops attacked a temple in another village in the district, killing a monk and a Karen layman. The group then raided two villages in Tambon Mae Usu seriously injuring one person. A source said defences have been reinforced along the border in this province after a report that DKBA forces under the leadership of Maj Maung Soe plan to cross the border and attack the Mae La Camp housing Karen refugees. Meanwhile, over 100 families in three border villages in Tha Song Yang yesterday began packing up their belongings fearing possible attacks. They reportedly plan to stay with cousins or friends in Tha Song Yang District, which is further away from the border. Assistant police chief Lt Gen Prasan Wongyai said yesterday that a special task force comprising 30 officers from the Tak provincial police station has been deployed at the Mae Usu village school in Tha Song Yang as a precaution against any further DKBA raids. The Thai and Burmese governments must urgently settle the territorial dispute at Doi Lang mountain to avoid a confrontation between troops of the two countries, according to a senior police officer. Police Assistant Director-General Kovid Bhakdibhumi said in Chiang Mai that the presence of Thai and Burmese troops at Doi Lang had unnecessarily strained relations between the two countries. Thai troops are camped about 500 metres away from their Burmese counterparts. "I am worried that the soldiers of the two sides may run out of patience or become trigger-happy facing each other," said Pol Lt-Gen Kovid, suggesting something be done urgently to prevent the confrontation from escalating into armed conflict. Both Thailand and Burma claim sovereignty over a 32 square-kilometre area of Doi Lang. The problem has never been settled because Rangoon did not have access to the disputed territory until early this year when drug warlord Khun Sa and his Mong Tai Army surrendered to the Burmese regime. Only then were Burmese government troops allowed to move into the area. The territorial dispute exists because the two sides hold different maps. Lt-Gen Kovid also predicted an increase in the flow of narcotics into Thailand from the Golden Triangle after Khun Sa's surrender because the traffickers who had previously allied themselves with the Mong Tai Army have broken up and are now working independently. During the last two months, he said police in Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai provinces have seized over five tons of chemicals used to produce heroin and amphetamines. Amphetamines, he noted, have become more popular among traffickers because they are easier to produce and earn as much profit as heroin. **************************************************************** NATION: KHUN SA'S SECRET NEGOTIATION W1TH THE SLORC February 2, 1996 Golden Triangle warlord Khun Sa has betrayed his comrades in arms and Shan nationalists fighting for the independence of Burma's Shan state, argues Seng Suk. In October last year, the world renown opium warlord Khun Sa sent two of his trusted aides namely Lao Tai and Kyaw Myint to Rangoon to negotiate for his conditional surrender to the Burmese junta. The terms of the secret mission were unknown to the newly formed Central Executive Committee of the Shan State Restoration Council (SSRC), a political arm of Khun Sa's Mong Tai Army (MTA). The 11-member Central Executive Committee with Zao Gunjade as its chairman was appointed on Aug 12 last year to oversee political and military affairs. Although Khun Sa declared his retirement and handed over power to this political body, the committee members were kept in the dark about his secret negotiation terms with the ruling Burmese junta, State Law and Order Restoration Council (Slorc). After Lao Tai and Kyaw Myint returned to the MTA headquarters, Mongmai-Homong (Muongmai-Homuong in Thai), a meeting of the Central Executive Committee (CEC) was called in November. Invitations were even extended to Shan expatriates and monks living in Thailand. One senior Shan citizen and a few monks living in Thailand attended the forum. The meeting was largely a ceremony declaring Khun Sa's handing over of power to his newly reformed committee and the monks. Although the monks could not accept such power, it nevertheless made them happy including other CEC members and Shan nationalists who trusted Khun Sa even more for his sincerity. As soon as the meeting ended, Khun Sa sent his uncle Khun Seng to Rangoon, presumably to arrange the details for his planned final surrender to the Slorc. The CEC members were told that Lao Tai, Kyaw Myint and Khun Seng had gone to Rangoon to negotiate for a final dialogue between Slorc and the CEC. Later the CEC members presented a 10-point demand to a Slorc delegation led by Col San Pwint. It came from a resolution adopted at a previous CEC meeting. The demand was signed by Zao Sam Mai SSRC vice chairman and CEC chairman, on behalf of SSRC chairman Zao Gunjade who was unable to sign the document having been hospitalized for brain surgery. The Jan 1 document made the following points. 1. Military- Ceasefire with nine subpoints. 2. Drug controls- the right to have a say in control, suppression and eradication of drugs. 3. Amnesty- three subpoints dealing with granting amnesty to the MTA by the Slorc plus personal security. 4. Freedom of movement and rehabilitation- containing two subpoints. 5. Supply - two subpoints dealing with food and medical supplies. 6. Business - granting licences for conducting business and commerce. 7. People- allowing villagers, who were uprooted from their homes by the Slorc under its policy against arms insurgency, to return to their original homes. To release all villagers, who were arrested and jailed in alleged connection with the MTA movement. Burmese troops stop using local people as porters and cease the collection of "porter money". 8. Area development - two subpoints including the right to develop its controlled areas. 9. Communications - two subpoints demanding hotline access to Slorc and the military high command. 10. General - four subpoints dealing with the right to appeal to the high command and cooperation between the MTA, and Slorc. Whatever the CEC demands were, the 3 evaluation of recent events and information privately obtained indicates Khun Sa and Slorc had secretly decided their late long before recent meetings. Except for Khun Sa and his close inner circle, the rest of the MTA face an uncertain future. All of them will undoubtedly be subject to human rights abuses under the Slorc as Khun Sa's mouthpiece, the Shan Newsletter, had always predicted. Khun Sa could be laughing his heart out at his safe haven somewhere in Burma. But as the saying goes, every dog has its day. The pressure will be on Khun Sa with the United States wanting to extradite him to stand trial for heroin trafficking. Seng Suk is a nom-de-guerre of a former leader of the Shan State Army. Since the 1970s, he has been living in exile but remains an avid watcher of events in his homeland. ************************************************************* NATION: LET A THOUSAND A POPPY POPPIES BLOOM February 2, 1996 Seng Suk traces the convoluted history of the opium trade in northeastern Burma and reflects on the implications for Shan State following the surrender of Khun Sa. In 1950, opium production in Burma's 1950, opium production in northeastern Shan State totalled 60 tonnes, concentrated mainly in the Kokang, Wa and Kengtung areas east of the Salween River. These areas essentially matched the path of retreat taken by the Komintang's 93rd Division as it fled China following the nationalists' defeat in 1949. The 93rd Division under Gen Li Me finally settled along the Thai-Burmese border in Shan state. By 1953, the KMT had established its headquarters at Doi Mae Salong and Tham Ngop of Doi Mon Ang Kang on the Thai side of the Thai-Shan state border. With the help of the CIA they built an air field at Mong Hsat, about 50-60 km opposite Thailand's Mae Ai district of Chiang Mai province. To finance their anti-communist struggle, the 3rd Brigade commanded by Gen Li Wan Hwong and the 5th Brigade commanded by Gen Tuan of the 93rd Division began trading in opium, an arrangement that was allowed, if not encouraged, by the governments of Taiwan, certain western countries and Thailand. As a result, production of opium in Shan State surged and by 1958 production had reached 200-250 tonnes. Though the Thai government tacitly shared its western allies' and Taiwan's policy concerning opium, the ruling prime minister, Marshall Sarit Thanarat, closed all legally-licensed opium dens in 1958 in anticipation of the adverse affects of the ever- increasing opium production in Shan state. The birth of the Shan independence armed movement in 1958 also provided relatively fertile conditions to encourage the production of opium in Shan state. Annual opium production reached 400 tonnes in 1970, 600 tons in 1975, 800 tonnes in 1976, 1,200 tons in 1977, and 2,000 tonnes in 1980. Now it is estimated to be more than 2,400 tonnes. These figures are based largely on the estimates of the US narcotic authorities as reported by the international media. A major factor in this exponential acceleration in opium production was the military takeover in 1962 and the social, political and economic chaos caused by dictator Ne Win's Burmese Way to Socialism. Among the most significant impacts was the creation of local militias, which were encouraged to arm themselves, pay their own salaries from their own opium profits and opium taxies. The central government also facilitated transportation of opium to Thailand and Laos to the east, India to the west and to Rangoon by Burma Army military trucks and gave permission for the establishment of storage houses at various border points and in Rangoon for export of the opium. But this was only the tip of the iceberg concerning the internal conditions of the Union of Burma in respect to the drugs problem. Up until 1975, the technical know-how to produce heroin was unavailable in Shan state. According to the opium warlord Lo Hsing-han, who was arrested in Thailand in 1973 and later turned over to the Burmese authorities in Rangoon, he and other local militia groups could at that time produce only Pho se, the Chinese term for morphin base, in Shan state and that only Hong Kong People had the technical know-how to refine opium into heroin. It seems that the Hon. Kong underworld had good connections with the drug barons. The remnants of KMT's 5th Brigade, the 3rd Brigade, Kokang Ka Kaw Ye (local militia) led by Lo Hsing-han, and Loi Maw Kwe Ye led by Khun Sa were all heavily involved in opium trade. They were all rivals. But ironically sometimes they cooperated for drug profit, while at other times they fought fierce battles such as in 1968 at the Burmese-Thai-Lao Gold en Triangle border. Most of the time the competition was vicious. A short time after Lo Hsing-han was released from prison and opium competition heightened among the militia groups, the heroin technical know-how started to arrive in Shan State, initially to the Kokang and Loi Maw areas where the indigenous Shans of Chinese origin were concentrated. Throughout the 60s and 70s the western powers allowed the KMT to use their affiliated facilities for covert transportation of drugs with the main objective of using the KMT to contain the spread of communism in Southeast Asia and Indochina. At the same time the superpowers also gained from huge unseen profits directly derived from opium and heroin trade. These external conditions also enormously favoured great increases in the production of opium in Shan State. ln dealing With the increase in opium production in the Shan state, no one can Ignore the most important factor that came into play in this game. That is the insatiable demand for the product. There was never even the faintest hint of opium oversupply in the Shan state, therefore, the implication clearly is that demand was always outstripping supply. US official statistics state that the United States is the end market for 98 per cent of Shan opium and its derivatives. The problem of this ever-increasing demand did not get the attention it deserved because it was intentionally or unintentionally buried along with the opium war between Khun Sa's Mong Tai Army and his main rival, the Was, for control of opium routes to Thailand and Khun Sa's activities. These were actually intended to destroy the Shan independence cause after the collapse of the Burma Communist Party in the Wa area of Shan state. Perhaps it is time the international community and responsible mass media emphasizes this demand problem and give it the attention it deserves. Khun Sa has been such a handy scapegoat, however, that replacing him with another target of international loathing may prove to be the better option. This is the concluding article of a two-part series on the history of the Shan independence movement and drugs in Burma's Golden Triangle. The first was published on Jan 19. Seng Suk is the nom-de-guerre of a former leader of the Shan State Army. Since the 1970s, he has been living in exile but he remains an avid watcher of events in his homeland. *************************************************************** BKK POST: SURRENDER OF KHUN SA ALLOWS SLORC TO FOCUS ON SUU KYI February 2, 1996 by-Supapohn Kanwerayotin & Nussara Sawatsawang Rangoon Khun Sa's surrender was a hastily organised affair, for even the generals in Rangoon were not quite sure whether the half- Chinese, half-Shan opium warlord, who has always proclaimed himself to be a Shan freedom fighter, had something up his sleeve when he contacted a local light brigade stating his wish to give up his Army. FOR over two weeks now, Burma's state-controlled media have churned out a steady flow of reports concerning Mong Tai Army troops "returning to the legal fold" following the unceremonious surrender of their leader, Khun Sa, to the Rangoon military government in early January. Finishing off Khun Sa's insurgency the junta whose official name is the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) can now turn to yet another battle_ with popular opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi whose National League for Democracy won a sweeping majority in the May 1990 general elections. But the Suu Kyi question is a more difficult one for SLORC as her popularity remains uncontested despite the junta's efforts to win popular support through religious promotion and development works. With the MTA, still leaving various spots around Shan State to surrender their arms and pledge allegiance to good Burmese citizenship, Khun Sa will most likely remain in the area until "the return to the legal fold" exercise winds up, according to a well-informed source. "Khun Sa is a very practical man with business acumen backed up by an excellent information/communication network. Perhaps he has already calculated that surrendering to SLORC is the least evil scenario," said the source. Khun Sa's surrender was a hastily organised affair, for even the generals in Rangoon were not quite sure whether the half-Chinese, half-Shan opium warlord, who has always proclaimed himself to be a Shan freedom fighter, had something up his sleeve when he contacted a local light brigade stating his wish to give up his army. SLORC's powerful first secretary, Lt Gen Khin Nyunt, made a secret trip to Mong Hsat, an area along the same latitude as Tachilek opposite Mae Sai district in Chiang Rai province, in mid-December during which he communicated Rangoon's instructions to local commanders on how to handle the MTA surrender which took place two weeks after his visit Internal rifts within the Shan nationalists movement and among those disenchanted with Khun Sa also precipitated the surrender. The 12,000 MTA troops handed over a large assortment of arms which analysts here said would be enough to replenish a few divisions of the Burmese army. The most obvious material gains for SLORC are the armament factory at the MTA's headquarters in Ho Mong, along with two well-stocked caches which include 15 surface-to-air missiles, items SLORC does not even possess. Sources close to him said Khun Sa has resumed the drinking and smoking habits he previously managed to kick in order to beat chronic anxiety and depression brought on by the US federal indictment in 1989 against him on 10 charges of narcotics trafficking. Seeking shelter with SLORC seems to be the best solution. SLORC, citing the absence of a bilateral extradition treaty, has said it will not hand over Khun Sa to the US government. After seeing to the shifting of alliance among his men, Khun Sa is most likely to stand trial on drug-related offences in Rangoon where SLORC can assure him of protection against the mighty American tentacles. Khun Sa looks set to sail along a course charted by SLORC which will resemble the fate of his predecessor Loh Hsin Han, a former key drug dealer who is living in peaceful retirement in the northern Shan town of Lashio. That course prescribes a trial in Rangoon, a death sentence commuted to life imprisonment which will then be negated by pardons allowing Khun Sa to go free after serving a reasonably brief jail term, according to sources familiar with SLORC thinking and Burma's justice system. "An immediate amnesty for Khun Sa to get away with it all will cause SLORC to lose face, making a mockery of its efforts to create a drug buster image," said a Burmese analyst. Drug related offences carry a penalty of 10 years imprisonment to capital punishment in Burma. With the Khun Sa episode running to a routine end, SLORC is up against the Suu Kyi question it has so far refused to solve. SLORC freed Mrs Suu Kyi from six years of house arrest last July, but has so far shunned her calls for a dialogue on the grounds that it is busy preparing Burma's economic take-off. "Yet unless there's political change Burma's economy won't take off," said E senior Burmese analyst pointing to the dilemma facing the junta. Eager foreign governments and inter national financial institutions are refraining from unleashing massive loans to fund Burma's infrastructure developments until a legitimate government is in place. Or so it seems. SLORC is acutely aware of its limits and the need for access to those credits even though its public statements stress that Burma can get by without foreign aid, confided foreign businessmen in Rangoon. Mrs Suu Kyi remains as popular as anti military sentiment remains strong among ordinary Burmese. In urban centres in the southern Shan state, people resent having to vacate their homes to make way for city beautification or having to "volunteer" one labourer each per household for public works. Inflation and the rising cost of commodities, especially rice, have emerged lately as campaign themes for both sides. At the same time, SLORC has vowed to rein in inflation and introduce price-stabilising measures. Although the Burmese people still hate the military, which is trying to win them over through religious and development works, stability and economic reforms have had a positive effect on Burma to a certain degree during the six years Mrs Suu Kyi was locked up in her home, say analysts. The stances taken by SLORC and Mrs Suu Kyi are so rigid and so wide apart fundamentally that a dialogue might not help, said one analyst. As Burma opens up and foreign businessmen can no longer resist the opportunities here, Mrs Suu Kyi will not be able to count too heavily on external support in pressuring SLORC into political change. After all, the strength "lies within_ her party and the country", and SLORC will not bow to any form of foreign pressure, the analyst said. ****************************************************** FREE BURMA WWW: HEAR ASSK SPEECH February 1, 1996 From: glen You can listen to (and read along with) Aung San Suu Kyi's address to the UN women's conference in Beijing 8/95. The address has been digitized and encoded as a realAudio file. it is easy to download and listen to. The file and instructions can be found at http://sunsite.unc.edu/freeburma/assk/beijing.html -glen -- Say "no!" to Pepsi and the gas that goes with it. 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