------------------------ BurmaNet ------------------------ "Appropriate Information Technologies, Practical Strategies" ---------------------------------------------------------- The BurmaNet News: April 30, 1997 Issue #708 HEADLINES: ========== THE NATION: EU TO EXTEND SANCTIONS ON BURMA THE NATION: ASEAN BIDS UNDER A CLOUD AFP: PHILIPPINES TORN OVER US CALL FOR BURMA AFP: ALATAS SAYS US SANCTIONS ON BURMA NOT A FACTOR BKK POST: CHAVALIT EXPECTED TO PUT OFF RANGOON TRIP BKK POST: SLORC SAYS IT WON'T RETALIATE AGAINST US REUTER: BURMESE MOSLEM DIES IN MINE BLAST ON BORDER REUTERS:UNOCAL HAS NO IMMEDIATE PLANS TO MOVE ALKMAARSCHE COURANT: US SANCTIONS ON BURMA THE NATION: STUDENTS CALL FOR HALT TO YADANA PIPELINE BKK POST: CAMBODIA POSES ASEAN QUANDARY BKK POST: NLD MP APPLAUDS US SANCTIONS REUTER: BURMA SAYS WEST PUSHING FOR SUU KYI AS LEADER ASIA TIMES: MYANMAR SANCTIONS: QUE SERA,SERA... BEIJING XINHUA:CHINA, BURMA TO KEEP CONSULATE ----------------------------------------------------------------- THE NATION: EU TO EXTEND SANCTIONS ON BURMA FOR SIX MONTHS April 29, 1997 AFP LUXEMBOURG - European Union (EU) sanctions on Burma aimed at forcing the country's military rulers to stop human rights abuses will be extended for a further six months, diplomats said. The move, to be approved by EU foreign ministers, reflects growing frustration among EU governments with the ruling State Law and Order Restoration Council's refusal to open negotiations with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. At Denmark's insistence, the ministers will discuss the situation in Burma in the wake of United States decision last week to ban new investment in the Southeast Asian nation. An early decision to follow the US lead is not, however, expected. Britain, the biggest foreign investor in Burma, has yet to reach a position on the issue. France and Germany have also expressed reluctance in the past to impose economic sanctions. The EU moved last October to ban members of Burma's ruling junta and senior members of the military or security forces from travelling to Europe. Contacts at ministerial of senior official level were also frozen. The measures strengthened an existing package of sanctions that includes an embargo on the sale of arms, munitions and military equipment to Burma, a ban on military cooperation and the suspension of non-humanitarian aid or development projects. The EU also agreed last month to exclude Burma from the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) - which accords preferential access to EU markets to goods from developing countries - to protest against the widespread use of forced labour to promote economic development in Burma. (TN) ******************************************************* THE NATION: ASEAN BIDS UNDER A CLOUD April 29, 1997 (slightly abridged) BY Don Pathan, Yindee Lertcharoenchok Infighting threatens admissions PHUKET ­ Violence and political instability could affect Cambodia's admission, along with those of Burma and Laos, into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), Philippine Foreign Minister Domingo Siazon said yesterday. Siazon expressed concern about the continuing political unrest in Cambodia, saying ''the internal political situation" there could affect the country's commitment to meet all the requirements of Asean before it could join the regional grouping. The three prospective Asean members will have to make internal structural and judicial adjustments to meet their commitments to the grouping's political, economic and social obligations and programmes such as the Asean Free Trade Area (Afta). Siazon's expression of Manila's concern coincides with the United States' attempts to lobby the seven Asean countries to reconsider their decision to admit Burma into the grouping, which is expected to be announced in July. Asean leaders agreed at an informal summit last December in Jakarta to admit Burma, Cambodia and Laos simultaneously, but refrained from announcing the actual timing of their entry. ''You have to remember the decision is to accept them together. Now it seems that one might have a problem because of the internal political situation among different parties," Siazon said. ''We will have to see how things develop in Cambodia," the foreign minister said, in reference to a recent grenade attack in Phnom Penh which killed 16 people. When asked whether similar incidents in Burma and Laos could kill off their chances of membership in Asean, Siazon said it would ''depend on the level of violence". ''There could be violence to an extent where the government is disrupted from functioning properly. Then it might be a situation where that government is not able to comply with Afta and other Asean commitments." According to Filipino Under Secretary Rodolfo Severino, Asean is concerned more about Cambodia and not Burma, as Cambodian domestic affairs could affect its commitment to meet Asean requirements. He pointed out that Phnom Penh is yet to pass legislation related to Afta schemes and that its National Assembly could not convene following the grenade attack. Cambodian Foreign Minister Ung Huot, last week, tried to assure Asean countries of his country's readiness to join the grouping, saying that the Cambodian Parliament, which had to delay its session last week due to political tension, will convene and pass all items of legislation by the time Asean decides on the new memberships. Burma is ready to accede to Asean economic agreements, Severino said, adding that the country, which is a member of the World Trade Organisation, already has its trade laws in place. Siazon said he was briefed last Friday by Brazeal Aurelia, US deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asia and the Pacific, about Washington's economic sanctions against Burma. Aurelia also asked Asean countries to reconsider Burma's future membership. Asean, said the Filipino minister, ''will always have to take into consideration their [Washington's] request, because we have to think about it." He said Asean members will come to a decision on the membership of the three candidates when their foreign ministers hold an informal meeting on May 31 in Kuala Lumpur. ''As I said, on May 31 we will make our decision," Siazon said. Asked about the Philippines' position on the membership of the three candidates, Siazon said it is ''very flexible". He said Asean countries are awaiting a final report from senior officials that will evaluate the readiness and the progress made by the three countries towards Asean. The report will be submitted on May 31. Siazon arrived in Phuket yesterday to attend a joint Thai-Filipino commission to be held today. Apart from bilateral topics, along with Thai counterpart Prachuab Chaiyasarn, he will also discuss new memberships to Asean, United Nations reforms, preparations for the upcoming annual meeting in July of Asean foreign ministers and the back-to-back meetings of Asean and its dialogue partners. Prachuab and Siazon will be joined by Singapore's Foreign Minister Shunmugum Jayakumar, who is arriving tonight. (TN) ******************************************************* AFP: PHILIPPINES TORN OVER US CALL FOR BURMA SANCTIONS: ANALYST April 28, 1997 (slightly abridged) MANILA, April 28 (AFP) - The Philippines, which has remained silent over US sanctions against Burma, is torn between supporting Washington and maintaining links with Rangoon, an analyst here said. Manila, which itself emerged from dictatorial rule 11 years ago, has toed the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) line, which prefers "constructive engagement" with Burma's military rulers. Philippine officials have declined to comment on the sanctions called by Washington last week. John Avila, a political economist with the private think tank Center for Research and Communications, said that privately, Filipino officials may sympathize with the Burmese opposition because "we also came from an authoritarian background." "But officially they will toe the ASEAN line because that (ASEAN unity) is a higher goal and basically ASEAN works on non-interference in each other's internal affairs," he told AFP. Avila was referring to the Philippines' emergence in 1986 from the 20-year dictatorship of the late president Ferdinand Marcos. The country spent 14 of those years under martial law and saw thousands of Marcos' political opponents jailed, Congress padlocked, rule by decree and heavy media restrictions. Filipino opposition leaders at the time called on the international community, led by the United States, to isolate Marcos. He was toppled in a popular uprising in 1986 and died in exile in Hawaii in 1989. Avila said US sanctions were unlikely to "drastically" affect Burma's economic development, saying US investments in Rangoon are limited and investors from ASEAN and Europe are "already knocking at the door of Burma." Avila said ASEAN, which includes some of the world's fastest growing economies, has "become more assertive" in dealing with the United States and other industrialized nations. "They (ASEAN nations) are more confident about their own development and their own inter-regional cooperation that they feel more in command where they should go," Avila said. He said Washington's call to shut out Burma from ASEAN would be difficult because ASEAN's goal of including all 10 nations before the end of the decade "is a primordial goal, a goal that cannot be compromised." Washington, however, might resort to strong moves to force other countries to support the sanctions such as passing legislation similar to the Helms-Burton act against Cuba, Avila said. The act penalizes companies from within or outside the United States that deal with Cuba, with such actions as taking away visa privileges from these firms' executives and their dependents. While Avila said this could be a "far-fetched" move by Washington, it could still be implemented if the situation in Burma becomes worse. US domestic public opinion would favour such a move, he added. **************************************** AFP: ALATAS SAYS US SANCTIONS ON BURMA NOT A FACTOR FOR ASEAN April 28, 1997 (slightly abridged) by Matthew Pennington BANGKOK, April 28 (AFP) - Indonesian Foreign Minister Ali Alatas on Monday dismissed the impact of both US sanctions against Burma and the US call for ASEAN to keep Burma out of the southeast Asian grouping. Alatas also played down concerns over political stability in Cambodia, saying he believed the warring partners in the fragile coalition government would be able to resolve differences "without resorting to force." Burma and Cambodia, along with Laos, are expected to be admitted to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations this year. ASEAN groups Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. "We in ASEAN don't believe that sanctions are relevant or workable in the case of Myanmar," Alatas said, referring to Burma by its official name. Only Burma's "capacity and preparedness to accept and fulfill the economic obligations" of membership would determine the timing of Rangoon's admittance to the grouping, he added. Speaking to reporters ahead of a UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) ministerial meeting, Alatas said the Burma was better prepared than the other candidates to meet the obligations of membership, including participation in the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA). "The economies of Laos and Cambodia need readjustment ... but we are flexible on this," he said, citing the 10-year grace period they would get to reduce tariff barriers under AFTA. "The Myanmar economy is in many ways more developed," he added, underscoring Rangoon's membership of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and other such international organizations. Commenting on recent political tensions in Cambodia, Alatas said ASEAN was "following closely" any developments. "We have been reassured that things are being overcome. These things were bound to happen in any developing country, especially in Cambodia after a long period of instability, war and destruction," he said. "I'm convinced the leadership of Cambodia will overcome the trenchant difficulties without resorting to force," he added. He criticized the West's handling of Burma, saying that stepping up isolation and sanctions against Rangoon would only further isolate a country that for a long time had already isolated itself. "Getting Myanmar into ASEAN is the better way of insuring greater peace, greater development and stability in our part of the world," Alatas said. Last week, Washington announced investment sanctions against Burma and said it would be lobbying ASEAN states to turn down Rangoon's entry bid because of human rights abuses by the ruling junta. He hoped that US-ASEAN ties would not be hurt by the sanctions and by differences over Burma. "There are many common interests between ASEAN as a whole and the United States as well as with ASEAN (members) individually. Let's hope these common interests will be preserved," he said. The European Union (EU) is to extend sanctions on Burma by six months. EU sanctions ban members of the ruling junta and senior members of the military or security forces from travelling to Europe. Contacts at ministerial or senior official level were also frozen. Sanctions also include an embargo on arms sales and military cooperation as well as on non-humanitarian aid. Last month, the EU agreed to exclude Burma from the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) which would give Rangoon preferential access to EU markets. *************************************** BKK POST: CHAVALIT EXPECTED TO PUT OFF RANGOON TRIP April 29, 1997 Possible visit will be around May 12-17 Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh is expected to postpone his trip to Burma to mid-May, the Foreign Ministry said yesterday. A possible visit would be around May 12-17, when he had earlier been scheduled to visit France and Italy but postponed the trip because French President Jacques Chirac called national elections. Gen Chavalit will decide on the timing of his Burma trip soon, said Foreign Minister Prachuab Chaiyasan. The trip had been set for May 3-4 but Rangoon said that was not convenient and proposed a later date, ministry officials said. The request was not related to the United States ban on new American investment in Burma, they said. Following the US move, Japan has urged Thailand to ask Burma's military leaders to work towards improved human rights and democratic progress. Mr Prachuab said he made no commitment to the request by Japanese State Secretary for Foreign Affairs Masahiko Koumura during a meeting on the sidelines of a conference of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific. Mr Prachuab said Thailand's priority is to stop the influx of illegal Burmese immigrants by giving Burma "special assistance" to create jobs. "We cannot allow illegal immigrants, who now number 700,000, to increase to two million," he said. The hour-long talks between Mr Prachuab and Mr Koumura also touched on regional co-operation. Mr Prachuab quoted Mr Koumura as restating Japan's pledge to support a bridge between Mukdahan and Savannakhet, Laos. Japan earlier agreed to extend separate soft loans worth 1.5 billion baht to Thailand and Laos to build the bridge, and grant aid for construction of route 9 from the bridge to Danang, central Vietnam. Mr Prachuab said the government had yet to decide whether to finance half of the bridge itself or to use Japanese funds, saying loan conditions loans had to be considered. Both sides also exchanged views on the prospective membership of Burma, Cambodia and Laos in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and reform of the United Nations Security Council, Mr Prachuab added. (BP) ******************************************************* BKK POST: SLORC SAYS IT WON'T RETALIATE AGAINST US April 29, 1997 Reuter Rangoon - Burma had no plans to retaliate against the United States for economic sanctions imposed last week on Rangoon, Foreign Minister Ohn Gyaw said yesterday. "We don't intend to take any retaliatory measures against the US for their decision against us," Mr Ohn Gyaw said. "They started it on their own volition and we'll just let it go," he said. It will not affect our country very much." (BP) ******************************************** REUTER: BURMESE MOSLEM DIES IN MINE BLAST ON BORDER April 29, 1997 COX'S BAZAR, Bangladesh, April 29 (Reuter) - A Burmese Moslem was killed and his son wounded when they detonated an anti-personnel mine on Bangladesh's border with Burma on Monday, police said. Bangladesh security sources also said on Tuesday mines had been laid on Burmese territory either by Moslem guerrillas to restrict the movement of Burmese troops in the area, or by Burmese guards to stop cross-border insurgency. Police said at least seven people, including one Bangladesh border security guard, had been killed by mines during the past year. An agreement was reached between the border forces of Burma and Bangladesh in January to launch a joint operation to remove the mines along the border. But the mine sweeping drive has yet to start. ******************************************** REUTERS:UNOCAL HAS NO IMMEDIATE PLANS TO MOVE FROM U.S. April 28, 1997 By David Brinkerhoff LOS ANGELES, April 28 (Reuter) - Unocal Corp, facing increasing political pressure over its controversial investment in Burma, said Monday it has no plans to move its headquarters out of the U.S. The El Segundo, Calif.-based energy company has come under fire from human rights groups who claim Unocal should divest its $340 million stake in a Burmese gas field because the country's military government abuses human rights. Other large companies, including Pepsico Inc, have withdraw from Burma under pressure from the U.S. goverment and shareholders. Earlier this year Unocal sold its U.S. refining and marketing operations to Tosco Corp for $2 billion in order to focus its resources on international exploration and production. The sale has fueled speculation Unocal might leave the United States in order to bypass U.S. sanctions. According to a report in the May 5 edition of BusinessWeek, Unocal has restructured its operations to leave the U.S. if the company finds it necessary. However, Unocal spokesman Barry Lane said the company has no plans to move out of the United States. "We're not just a regional company anymore but international," Lane said. "That's not to be construed that we're no longer a legal entity here." Last week, President Clinton approved economic sanctions against Burma due to human rights abuses by the Burmese military government. The sanctions ban new U.S. investment in Burma. The United States and many other Western countries have criticized Burma for human rights abuses and for failing to recognize the democratically elected government of the opposition National League for Democracy, which was co-founded by Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. Unocal Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Roger Beach said he was "terribly disappointed" by the president's decision to approve economic sanctions againt Burma. Analysts say its typical for multinational companies like Unocal to separate their domestic and overseas operations, like Unocal did last year, for tax purposes. "They're not packing up their bags as far as we can tell, that's not necessary," said Natwest Secututies Corp analyst Jennifer Weinstein. Unocal has long claimed the best way to promote democracy in Burma is to allow foreign investors to help build infrastructure and not target them for sanctions. But Weinstein says Unocal may not even be considering leaving the U.S. since previous sanctions against rogue states have grandfathered, or let continue, established projects by U.S. companies. "(Unocal) hopes it will be grandfathered out," Weinstein said, adding Unocal also has valuable U.S. Gulf production that would be costly to give up. The Free Burma Coaliton, a group which has attacked Burma's government -- the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) -- has said Unocal's investments support a government uses murder and rape to coerce citizens into working on Unocal's project. "If your investing in Burma...it means your helping keep SLORC in power, which means keeping the country repressed," said Pamela Wellner, a spokeswoman for the coalition. **************************************** ALKMAARSCHE COURANT: US SANCTIONS ON BURMA April 26, 1997 (excerpts from unofficial translation from Dutch) From: ajsloot@worldonline.nl Yesterday in Amsterdam David Taw, representative of the Karen National Union, called for a hold on trade with Burma. Trade outside involvement with the junta is not possible. European companies are currently the largest investors in Burma. The minority group Karen are being pushed into Thailand because of the oil and gas exploitment in their area. The largest foreign exploiting company in this sector is the French oilcompany Total. The Burma Centre Netherlands (BCN) shares the view of the Karen. The organization had a 'Burma-index' placed yesterday on the front of the option market building in Amsterdam. ************************************* THE NATION: STUDENTS CALL FOR HALT TO YADANA PIPELINE WORK April 29, 1997 Student groups yesterday urged the Petroleum Authority of Thailand (PTT) to stop construction of the Yadana pipeline project. "It is an illegal project which destroys the forest and community life. The project is helping the Burmese government to eradicate minority groups," Sawittri Pulsukkho, coordinator of the 16 Institutes Conservation Group said. The future of the project must be decided by people nationwide, she added, saying that if it goes ahead, students will continue to oppose the project. Songkiert Tansamrit, director of the PTT's Public Relations Affairs Department, said the students' demands are impossible to meet. "Construction has started and will continue as quickly as possible," he said. Songkiert said that he approved of the student movement but advised that they contact his agency. "It is good that the students are concerned about social issues, but they must obtain information from both sides. They have never talked to us," he said. (TN) ******************************************************* BKK POST: CAMBODIA POSES ASEAN QUANDARY April 29, 1997 Editorial Burma is the problem nation most frequently cited in discussions about how to enlarge the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. But there are serious problems surrounding the other two applicants. Laos is a small nation already stretching its assets to strive for Asean membership. But an even greater problem in Cambodia. Within the next 100 days, the seven Asean foreign ministers will decide whether to enlarge the group to 10. The current belief is that they will vote in late July to admit Burma, Cambodia and Laos. At its 30th anniversary, the Association will be complete, with all 10 nations of Southeast Asia holding full membership. This has a neat sound to it. Unfortunately, Asean is not really ready to accept the three new applicants. And the three Thai neighbours are far from ready to join. The major controversy concerns Burma. This is understandable, because the Rangoon regime rules by force and violence, and without the support of its people. It is the only one of the 10 present and future Asean members without a claim to popular support. While democracy is not a major feature of many Asean members, it is only in Burma where the population has voted out its government by a wide majority. The excessive violence used by Burmese generals to cling to power and profits has put Slorc in the bull's eye of publicity. Come July, Asean should keep Burma in the purgatory of its observer status. Admitting the country will cause a lowering of respect for Asean. It has taken 30 years of effort for Asean to become a highly esteemed group in world economic and political circles. Embracing the dictators of Rangoon will lower that admiration. But Asean ministers should also have severe second thoughts about rushing Cambodia and Laos into the group. Such action carries great risked, of the kind Asean has always prudently avoided. None of the three new applicants has displayed the economic professionalism or respect for Asean rules which membership is supposed to demand. In recent months, Cambodia's actions have raised serious questions about its readiness, mostly by Cambodians themselves. King Norodom Sihanouk is the most prominent Khmer to oppose full membership just yet, but he is far from alone. Keat Chhon, the economy and finance minister, pointed out last month the entire Cambodian tax structure is out of tune with that of Asean and it would take at least four to five years before a new tax structure is stable. Like Cambodia, Laos has had major problems filling both the diplomatic and bureaucratic positions necessary. Qualified civil servants are already hard to find in Laos, especially at the salaries offered. Residents of Vientiane trying to obtain information about Asean have often found designated offices empty. The few enforceable tax laws in Laos are far out of line with Asean requirements. It is all very well for Asean ministers to claim they cannot get involved in the internal political affairs of members. The fact is they have little choice. Asean delegations with Burmese representatives will be shunned in Europe, barred from America, and draw demonstrators and protests elsewhere. The group was nearly dragged into last month's China-Vietnam dispute, and there is little doubt it will have to face up to China over the Spartly Islands fracas. These are samples of real problems Asean simply must face in today's world. There is no reason to look for more, in the form of revulsion with the Rangoon regime or government factions in Cambodia. Nor is there any good reason for the Asean seven to stop their forward progress while they wait for the other three to get their laws, procedures and civil servants into order. Burma, Laos and Cambodia are not prepared for the trials of full Asean membership, either politically or economically. Their applications should be held until they are ready. (BP) ******************************************************* BKK POST: NLD MP APPLAUDS US SANCTIONS April 29, 1997 Letter to the Editor We warmly applaud the action taken by the government of the United States in the form of economic sanctions against the Slorc military regime which is continuing to violate human rights. We welcome President Clinton's government on the clear cut action taken on the Burma democratic struggle. This kind of penalty should have been imposed earlier on a regime that is only interested in keeping power. There is no way the grassroots people will be affected by this economic sanction. Nearly all the joint ventures and investments are monopolised by either Slorc directly or their associates, and it is only these businesses and these people who will be affected. This economic sanction by the US is a big development for the Burma democratic movement. It is a clear warning against the human rights violations being violated in Burma, one of which is the disregard shown for the 1990 elections. We remind Asean governments that the people of Burma clearly stated in the 1990 elections their strong desire for democracy and non-acceptance of a dictatorship. We would like all countries to join the US in this strong and clear action against the military regime. We especially hope the Asean governments respect the will of the people of Burma. The constructive engagement policy implemented by Asean has not been helpful in establishing democracy in Burma. We ask all countries to help establish democracy in Burma by educating SLORC to enter into a peaceful dialogue with the democratic forces led by Daw Aung Suu Kyi and the ethnic nationalities. Maung Maung Aye Elected member of parliament National League for Democracy Tak ******************************************************* REUTER: BURMA SAYS WEST PUSHING FOR SUU KYI AS LEADER April 28, 1997 (abridged) RANGOON, Burma (Reuter) - Burma on Monday said Western nations were likely to maintain pressure on the country following the imposition of U.S. sanctions until opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi won power. "(The West) will continue to exert pressure on Myanmar (Burma) until the woman they prefer ascends the throne," a commentary in state-run newspapers said. "They will continue to harass Myanmar with a heap of fabricated news until Myanmar people are impoverished and starved and kneel before her and ask 'Save us! Help us!"' The commentary did not mention Suu Kyi by name, but referred to the "daughter of the national leader." Suu Kyi is daughter of Burma's independence hero Aung San. "I have already reckoned this (sanctions) would happen one day. I have also estimated what further steps they will take," the commentary by columnist Sithu Nyein Aye said. The Rangoon newspaper commentary said Washington wanted Suu Kyi to be leader because she would be "pro-West" and would give Western nations a foothold on the most strategic region of Southeast Asia. Burma's media, considered a mouthpiece of the military government, and government officials often accuse Suu Kyi of being a "minion" or "lackey" of the West, in part because of her marriage to British academic Michael Aris. "Myanmars took interest in the daughter of the national leader they respected and admired and flocked to her for curiosity," the commentary said. "She relished it and she later cannot see the truth." Since being released from six years of house arrest in July, 1995, Nobel Peace laureate Suu Kyi has made repeated, unanswered pleas to the government to talk about ways to restore democracy to Burma. She has also urged foreign investors not to come to Burma until the situation improved and was a vocal proponent of the U.S. economic sanctions. The commentary said Suu Kyi was trying to ruin the country. Suu Kyi has been under virtual house arrest since December when students took to the streets in rare anti-government protests. *************************************** ASIA TIMES: MYANMAR SANCTIONS: QUE SERA,SERA... April 28, 1997 Stephen Brookes It was about half an hour after sunset, and the hills of Shan State were deepening into rich shades of blue as the sky darkened and the lights of the town blinked on below. There were five of us on the balcony of the Kyainge Tong Hotel - four journalists and an articulate young colonel from Myanmar's Office of Strategic Studies - and we were engaged in an unusually open discussion about politics in this troubled country. Suddenly a reporter from Japan's NHK burst in. "CNN just announced that the United States is imposing sanctions on Burma," he said. The conversation stopped. We all looked over at the colonel, who a few minutes earlier, had been telling jokes and describing his experiences as a soldier fighting the Burma Communist Party insurgents in this same part of the country. His face went taut and he stared off into the dark hills. "This is just politics," he said grimly, after a few moments. "We aren't politicians - we're only trying to develop the country. We survived without anyone's help for 26 years and we can do it again if we have to." It was a strange and significant moment. Just about every observer in Myanmar had assumed that a US ban on new investment was inevitable, but the news had come in the middle of a trip led by Lieutenant-General Khin Nyunt, one of Myanmar's top leaders, to show journalists and diplomats the government's efforts to wipe out opium and develop the region's economy. A lot of the trip was pure public relations, but it was also a lesson in the realities of power politics in a country that faces potentially explosive divisions. The ruling State Law and Order Restoration Council was able to take us into the Shan region, for example, because it had struck a cease-fire arrangement with the drug-trafficking insurgents who formerly held control. A stable modus vivendi had been achieved. "We allow them to keep their arms, and we work together with them to develop the economy," the young colonel had explained earlier that day in Mong La, a rapidly-expanding town on the Chinese border. "Everybody's tired of fighting, so now we're cooperating for economic development," he said, pointing to a group of soldiers lining the air strip where our helicopter had landed. "The guys with the G-2s are ours," he said, indicating the semi-automatic weapons they carried, "and the guys with the AK-47s are the former insurgents". They looked to us like part of the same army. That cease-fire with the insurgents was the result of a realistic strategy on the part of the SLORC, explained one diplomat on the trip. "The West has a strategy of arresting drug traffickers and seizing their assets," he said. "But here, that doesn't work. It takes a long time to eradicate the opium and you need to have an economy. So the government goes to the traffickers and says: 'Cut back some of your activities and we'll turn a blind eye to the rest, as long as you put money into building the economy'. It's a transitional process and it takes a long time." So when the US sanctions were announced - with Secretary of State Madeleine Albright saying the SLORC had "chosen not to listen" to US demands for political change, and had "failed to cooperate in the war against drugs" - the professional diplomats in Myanmar agreed that the ban reflected America's failure to come to grips with realities in the region, both in terms of drug control and political evolution. "It's hard to see how the US ban will realistically improve anything in Myanmar," said one diplomat a subdued reception in the hotel, shortly after the news had spread throughout the group. "It only creates more intransigence on both the government's part and on the part of Aung San Suu Kyi." Another Western diplomat agreed, predicting that unilateral sanctions would completely end Washington's already-weak influence in Yangon. "This must be America's new policy of 'splendid isolation'," he said sarcastically. There was no discernible support among the ambassadors, military attaches and drug enforcement experts in the room for the decision, and almost a sense of disregard for them. "US sanctions have already been factored into ASEAN's decision to admit Myanmar," said one ASEAN diplomat. "They don't matter to us at all." The Japanese ambassador also shrugged the move off, saying Tokyo was concerned that a sanctions policy would isolate Myanmar. Beijing had a policy of non-interference in other countries' affairs, added the Chinese ambassador. And in the middle of the room, surrounded by a small crowd, was General Khin Nyunt. He seemed tired and disappointed at the news, but not angry. The US move "will have no effect", he told us. "In politics you have to expect these things." Asked whether the sanctions would cause the SLORC to reconsider any of his policies, he said: "We don't have anything to reconsider because we are walking in a straight line. And we have many friends in the region." It was a subdued crowd that left Kyainge Tong the next morning. The journalists were bundled onto a plane and sent off to Tachilek, where we wandered around listlessly in the dust for a while before being fed and taken back to Yangon. It had been a long trip, and we had all retreated into our own little worlds of fatigue and heat exhaustion. As we were packed onto the bus for the final trip out to the airport, I found myself sitting behind Dr Khin Maung Nyunt, an all-purpose academic who had been brought along for our benefit. As the bus started, he suddenly burst into song. "Que sera, sera," he sang, "whatever will be, will be." He looked around cheerfully, to see if anyone wanted to join him in a Doris Day sing-along. No one did. "The future's not ours to see," he urged. We were oblivious. "Que sera, sera," he said quietly. Then he fell silent too. (AT) *************************************