------------------------ BurmaNet ------------------------ "Appropriate Information Technologies, Practical Strategies" ---------------------------------------------------------- The BurmaNet News: July 30, 1997 Issue #785 Noted in Passing: With or without her [Aung San Suu Kyi] there will be democracy. With or without dialogue there will be democracy. - SLORC Foreign Minister Ohn Gyaw (see: THAILAND TIMES: BURMESE FM SAYS) HEADLINES: ========== THAILAND TIMES: BURMESE FM SAYS DEMOCRACY WILL EXIST THE NATION: EU SETS CONDITIONS FOR RANGOON THAILAND TIMES: BURMA'S ASEAN INCLUSION IN THE HOT THE OTTAWA CITIZEN: AXWORTHY CALLS FOR SANCTIONS THE NATION: ASEAN: A FORUM FOR GOVERNMENTS, NOT PEOPLE AMNESTY INTL: HUMAN RIGHTS AND REGIONAL SECURITY FDL-AP: PRESS STATEMENT ON THE ADMISSION OF BURMA BKK POST: SHAN BLOOD FLOWS AS TROOPS KILL 400 BKK POST: THOUSANDS OF VILLAGERS MOVED BY JUNTA THE NATION: THE PLOT THICKENS IN RANGOON S.H.A.N. REPORT: THE PEOPLE OF SHAN STATES JOIN THE UNPO BKK POST: FAKE-WARY TRADERS SHUN BURMA NOTES BKK POST: BURMA SET TO HOLD MAJOR GEMS FAIR INDEPENDENT REPORT: THE ROHINGYAS ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------- THAILAND TIMES: BURMESE FM SAYS DEMOCRACY WILL EXIST WITHOUT SUU KYI July 29, 1997 (AP) KUALA LUMPUR: Burma does not need Nobel Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi to achieve democracy, the country's foreign minister said yesterday. "With or without her there will be democracy. With or without dialogue there will be democracy," Foreign Minister Ohn Gyaw said. "We arc trying to build a system not with a person but with the people of the country." Western nations have urged Burma's military government to begin a dialogue with Suu Kyi, whose political party won 1990 elections but was prevented from taking power. The government, however, has not responded and has tightened restrictions on her party. Burma's slow pace in democratic reforms has been severely criticized by the United States and other nations in meetings I over the past several days with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which admitted the country as a new member last Wednesday. Ohn Gyaw acknowledged that the pace may be seem slow, but said the government must take time to achieve 'real unity' among the country's many minorities. "This particular period ... is very important and delicate in our contemporary history," he said in an interview with CNN television . Western leaders who have opposed Burma's membership in ASEAN, however, were far from satisfied with Ohn Gyaw 's explanation. "We regard the performance (of Burma government) as completely unacceptable," Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer told reporters. Australia, Canada, the United States and others said ASEAN should now use its increased influence with Burma to encourage it to institute democratic changes. "We do not ask ASEAN to impose a solution on Burma from the outside: but rather to accept that a lasting solution cannot be imposed by force from within, either." US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said. ***************************************************************** THE NATION: EU SETS CONDITIONS FOR RANGOON July 29, 1997 Kulachada Chaipipat, The Nation KUALA LUMPUR - European Union (EU) foreign ministers told their Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) counterparts yesterday that the EU will not allow new member Burma to join Asean-EU meetings if such talks are held in Europe. The message was delivered during a meeting yesterday of Asean and EU foreign ministers in which the 15-country European bloc also made clear its conditions for Burma's inclusion in the talks. The EU delegation informed the nine Asean foreign ministers that it was difficult to admit Burma into the forum at this stage and Burma's future participation would be decided by the EU Council of Ministers and the EU parliament, an informed source said. Like other Asean members, Burma has to sign an Asean-EU Cooperation Agreement before it can attend talks between the two groups. Vietnam took two years after its membership into Asean in 1995 to conclude the agreement with the EU. The EU ministers informed Asean that newcomer Laos will face no problems in acceding to the agreement. European President Jacques Poos said the EU would not change its position on Burma unless five conditions were met: the release of all political prisoners, an end to the arrest of political dissidents, the restoration of political dialogue with pro-democracy leaders, a new democratic general election at the earliest outset and a guarantee of freedom of speech and movement. The EU Parliament has long imposed political sanctions against Burma, banning EU dialogues with the Burmese junta. the State Law and Order Restoration Council (Slorc) and visits by Burmese officials to EU member states. Foreign Minister Prachuab Chaiyasan, who met on Sunday with European Commission Vice President Manual Marin, said the EU Council of Ministers will have to arrive at a majority vote on Burma's entry into the Asean-EU agreement and later defer it for the ratification of the EU Parliament. However, Prachuab said the EU has no objection to Burma's participation as an observer in the upcoming Asean-EU Joint Cooperation Committee in Bangkok, scheduled for November 17 to November 19. Thailand will be accorded the role of co-ordinator between Asean and the EU after Singapore in October. Prachuab said Thailand will have to work hard with Asean and Burma to overcome this hurdle. "There is still time to smooth out the differences between the EU and Asean on this issue. It took Vietnam two years to negotiate the agreement with the EU," he said. He said Thailand has urged that Burma receive the same treatment as that accorded to Vietnam. At the plenary session of the Post Ministerial Conference yesterday, the US led other Asean dialogue countries in addressing transnational issues including drugs and money laundering in Burma. Burma was named by US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright as the primary source of heroin and methamphetamines flooding Southeast Asia and the US and a safe haven for money laundering by Burma's drug traffickers with official encouragement. "The primary source of these drugs is Burma, which is itself experiencing an alarming rise in drug abuse and Aids infection. Narcotic production has grown in Burma year after year, defying every international to solve the problem," she said. She also warned that a lasting solution to the region's narcotics problem would not be achieved without a lasting solution to Burma's political crisis. "This is one reason why President Clinton has barred future US investment in the country," she said. Thailand yesterday led Asean's explanations about efforts to fight drugs within the grouping. According to Prachuab, Asean urged Western countries to curb the demand in their respective countries and control the production of chemical agents, as well as equipment, used in the manufacture of heroin. "Pure opium would not produce a harmful effect unless it was transformed into heroin through scientific methods exported by the West," Prachuab said. Meanwhile, one of Ireland's largest retail chains promised to end links with Burma if allegations that it is selling clothes produced in a state-run factory outside Rangoon turn out to be true. A spokesman for Dunnes said the company had no direct dealings with Burma, and no knowledge of the political situation there. He said one of Dunnes' suppliers, a UK-based company called Unimix, was known to have a share in a joint venture in Burma. If the allegations were proved to be correct, Dunnes would immediately case trading with the factory, the spokesman said. ****************************************************** THAILAND TIMES: BURMA'S ASEAN INCLUSION IN THE HOT SEAT AGAIN July 29, 1997 (AFP) KUALA LUMPUR: Burma faced new attacks yesterday over its human rights record and alleged links to drug trafficking as ASEAN held annual talks 4 with international powers. For the second straight day, US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright bluntly accused Burma's ruling junta of complicity in the drugs trade and laundering its profits. "Drug traffickers who once spent their days leading mule trains down jungle tracks are now leading lights in Burma's new market economy and leading figures in its new political order," Albright said. She was apparently referring to former opium warlord Khun Sa. among others. Khun Sa "retired" from his drug empire in Burma's northeast Shan State and is now reported to be involved in legitimate businesses operating from Rangoon. Both of Albright's attacks have been in the presence of Burma's foreign minister, Ohn Gyaw. Over the two days, Australia, Canada and the European Union also launched assaults on Rangoon with Canadian Foreign Minister Lloyd Axworthy yesterday assailing the junta's "policies of repression." Burma, which joined the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) last week had hoped to meet polite diplomatic acceptance here, but was instead "being forced to listen to some uncomfortable truths," a delegate said. An ASEAN official said Southeast Asian states felt it was useful for Burma to be confronted with such criticism. "In some ways we are exposing Myanmar to feel the whole brunt of international opprobrium," he remarked. Far from springing to Burma's defense, its ASEAN partners sat back quietly and "allowed us to do their dirty work, " a Western official commented. Japanese Foreign Minister Yukihiko Ikeda's statement yesterday was more typical of the Asian approach to Burma and its new ASEAN membership. "I hope that welcoming new members into the fold will not stifle the beneficial contributions that ASEAN has made to the development and stability of the Asia-Pacific region, but will further bolster them," he said. "I am confident that ASEAN membership will have a constructive impact on the two countries which have just joined the organization," Ikeda added, referring to Burma and Laos. Albright yesterday called for joint action to prevent the spillover of criminal activities from Burma. "With economies whose growth often outpaces government efforts at regulation, ASEAN nations are vulnerable to criminals looking for a place to operate, or a place to hide. "Because international criminals respect no law or border, it is in every nation's interest to fight them together," she warned. "We are increasingly concerned that Burma's drug traffickers, with official encouragement, are laundering their profits through Burmese banks and companies, some of which are joint ventures with foreign businesses. "Drug money has become so pervasive in Burma that it taints legitimate investment and threatens the region as a whole," Albright said. This was "another reminder that it will be hard to do normal business in Burma until a climate of law is restored to that country," she said. President Bill Clinton has banned future US investment in Burma in a bid to pressure the ruling junta to undertake reforms. ***************************************************************** THE OTTAWA CITIZEN: AXWORTHY CALLS FOR SANCTIONS AGAINST BURMA-MEETING PRODUCES NO AGREEMENT ON HUMAN RIGHTS COMPLAINTS July 29, 1997 (abridged) by Jonathan Manthorpe Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia - Foreign Minister Lloyd Axworthy will recommend to cabinet that economic sanctions be imposed on Burma because of the military regime's stance on political and human rights. After a meeting with Burmese Foreign Minister U Ohn Gyaw today, Mr. Axworthy said: "I'm going to report that they have not responded in any way" to pressure to ease restrictions. Mr. Axworthy produced a list of eight actions Canada wanted the military regime to take to improve human rights in the Southeast Asian country. The list includes dialogue with the National League for Democracy, led by Nobel Peace Prize winner, Aung San Suu Kyi, the release of political prisoners and a timetable for constitutional change. Canada has relatively little trade with Burma, about $15 million annually, but Mr. Axworthy said Burma's State Law and Order Restoration Council is trying to encourage new investment from Canadian mining and petroleum industry-companies. "There is a point when the international community has to put its markers down. If the Burmese government is to give better economic conditions for their people, then there is reciprocity in that. Most countries recognize that, clearly the Burmese don't." He has refused to detail the sanctions but said they would affect investment, trade and financing with Burma. Mr. Axworthy said the only glimmer he saw during his one-hour meeting with his Burmese counterpart was in the area of illegal drugs control. Burma is one of the world's largest producers of heroin, much of which is trafficked through Canada. Mr. U Ohn (sic) indicated that a United Nations Drug Control Program may be allowed to operate effectively in Burma and Mr. Axworthy said Canada may contribute to that program. Mr. Axworthy went to the meeting with few expectations that the Burmese junta would be prepared to drop its refusal to negotiate with the NLD which won 1990 elections, but which has been barred from taking power. "I raised the question with him whether they were prepared to get involved in the international community through contact groups - such things as UN commission on human rights. The answer was clearly no. They clearly would not welcome any international representatives." Burma's regime has been condemned by a number of countries and international human rights organizations for detaining political opponents without trial, torture and using slave labour. ******************************************************** THE NATION: ASEAN: A FORUM FOR GOVERNMENTS, NOT PEOPLE July 29, 1997 (Editorial) (abridged) In exerting its influence and playing a mediating role in the renewed Cambodian conflict, Asean doesn't prove it really cares. On the contrary, what appears to be a display of the regional group's concern, sympathy and willingness to help, underlies one of its flawed characteristics - that Asean is an elite convergence of heads of governments and that people don't matter much, if at all. The damning proof of this is Burma. The decades-long suffering of citizens of that cursed country hasn't moved Asean beyond the point of "constructive engagement" which has never changed a thing. And last week, the grouping flushed its strongest bargaining tool down the drain by embracing the notorious Slorc into its fold. In Burma's case, Slorc's brutality and suppression have become a status quo. No businesses will be much affected if a few hundred more are rounded up for anti-government activities or a dozen more die in prisons. No serious border problems have emerged from Slorc's iron-fist rule. There is room for improvement as far as the so-called spirit of Asean is concerned. The grouping has strictly limited itself to a government-to-government organisation, with very little participation, feedback, or input from the people. It is an association of governments, by governments and for governments. In Asean's point of view, the term "neighbouring country" seems to mean neighbouring government, not neighbouring people. ****************************************************** AMNESTY INTL: HUMAN RIGHTS AND REGIONAL SECURITY - A CHALLENGE FOR THE ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM July 26, 1997 (excerpts) Statement by Rory Mungoven, Asia-Pacific Program Director, Amnesty International in Kuala Lumpur, 26 July 1997 Human rights and regional security issues are inextricably linked. The security of nation states begins with the security of the civil society of which they are composed. The security problems that beset the region - notably in Cambodia, North Korea, East Timor, Bougainville and Myanmar - are the projected shadow of human rights violations. Far from being an "internal affair", human rights issues directly engage the international responsibilities and national interests of other states. They belong squarely on the agenda of regional security discussions such as those in Kuala Lumpur this week. Conflicts cannot be resolved, confidence cannot be built and multilateral cooperation cannot be strengthened unless regional security issues are addressed at their root cause - the violation of human rights. Poor security in any one country in the region has direct consequences for the Asia-Pacific region as a whole; the long history of refugee flows in Southeast Asia, currently continuing from Myanmar, East Timor and now again Cambodia, is a sad illustration of this point. Human rights considerations must be at the heart of confidence building and preventive diplomacy if regional security cooperation is to meet the objective of the ARF and become more comprehensive and effective. Ensuring respect for humanitarian law and principles should be a basic first step in managing any conflict. Countries in the region which are called upon to provide safe haven to refugees should abide by international standards for their protection. Encouraging greater respect for human rights in neighbouring countries is the best way of stemming refugee flows. Adherence to international human rights standards should be an integral part of promoting stable government and the rule of law. Now that ASEAN has admitted Myanmar as a member state, it is to be hoped that a renewed effort will be made to push the Myanmar authorities to initiate dialogue with opposition and ethnic groups, and bring an immediate halt to the ongoing human rights violations committed by the armed forces, before that country too descends further into conflict and chaos. **************************************************************** FDL-AP: PRESS STATEMENT ON THE ADMISSION OF BURMA TO THE ASEAN AND RECENT CAMBODIAN CRISIS July 24, 1997 (abridged) 1. The Forum of Democratic Leaders in the Asia-Pacific (FDL-AP) expresses our deepest concern that on the 23rd of July, ASEAN has allowed Burma to join as a full member in spite of strong international opposition. 2. It is widely known that SLORC, the Burmese military junta, lacks legitimacy as a constitutional government as it forcefully seized power and has continuously and ruthlessly violated the human rights of the Burmese people. SLORC continues to brutally oppress the Burmese democratic forces, forcing children to labor, and enforcing its relocation policy against the will of ethnic nationals. The ASEAN led Constructive Engagement has also been a target for harsh world criticism from the view point that the Burmese membership will only strengthen the military dictatorship of SLORC and their small number of followers while producing no positive effect on the lagging Burmese economy. 3. For these reasons, the FDL-AP has made its all-out effort to elucidate the sensitive pertinence of the Burmese entry into ASEAN upon world human rights and democracy and to increase awareness of this matter. The FDL-AP has sent letters, several times, under the signature of Dr. Kim Dae-jung, Resident Co-President of the FDL-AP, to the President of the United States, the Prime Minister of Japan, and the heads of the ASEAN States including the ASEAN foreign ministers to ask for international support to protest against SLORC's admission to ASEAN. The FDL-AP conducted letter campaigns in which we urged our members to support our efforts against SLORC's admission to ASEAN, hence tarnishing its reputable name. 4. The recent Cambodian internal turmoil is an example which clearly shows the negative impacts on human rights and stability in the region when power is seized undemocratically through violence. 5. The FDL-AP believes that ASEAN should have given reconsideration to the admission of Burma along with Cambodia. Because democracy and human rights in Burma is also severely threatened under the military dictatorship. In this regard, it is indeed unfortunate that ASEAN forced its decision to accept Burma as a new member. Therefore, ASEAN should be clearly aware of its responsibility for the future undemocratic practices and human right violations by SLORC and should upkeep its duty to improve such conditions. ASEAN also should not forget that it will be its vital and utmost important mission to persuade SLORC to actively cooperate for the democratization of Burma. Forum of Democratic Leaders in the Asia-Pacific (FDL-AP) *********************************************************** BKK POST: SHAN BLOOD FLOWS AS TROOPS KILL 400 July 28, 1997 (from SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST) 'NO STOPPING' SOLDIERS ON NEW MURDER SPREE Burmese soldiers have murdered about 400 villagers since the middle of June as the junta steps up its war in the Shan state, aid workers and rebels said on Saturday. The army appears to have escalated-its killing in the northeast corner of the country following the massacre of about 25 ethnic Burmese on June 13. Troops who habitually killed anyone they found in the open countryside have indulged in an orgy of violence that has left many scores of bodies -some beheaded -in lonely country lanes, according to reports gathered by the Shan Human Rights Foundation. "They are not stopping now - just killing, killing, killing," said a member of the foundation. "We conservatively reckon that at least 400 people have been killed since the middle of last month." Villagers who have fled across the border into northern Thailand have been telling refugee workers for 18 months how a low-key rebellion by a group called the Shan United Revolutionary Army has provoked a brutal response. To try to break the rebellion, the army has smashed many villages in the central Shan state, forcing the inhabitants to move to designated areas at short notice. Anyone found outside the new townships can be shot on sight. This frequently proves a disaster for the many families that, for fear of starvation, must forage for food in the forest or try to harvest rice on their old land. Refugees routinely tell stories of soldiers who appear to kill so that they can steal cattle or bicycles, of confiscated land sold to Chinese or Burmese settlers and of gang rapes. But the ruling State Law and Order Restoration Council's own terror may be feeding their hatred and anger. When an unidentified group of rebels forced about 25 ethnic Burmese from the central plains off buses and later executed them, the junta's soldiers started killing with even less compunction. Earlier this month drivers travelling along roads in the area of Kho Lam and Kunhing towns reported seeing the bodies of 26 and 17 Shan villagers -all beheaded. The already-severe restrictions on movement have became much stricter, forcing more and more villagers to run the risk of being killed in a desperate search for food. In June, 26 villagers in the Kunhing area got permission to gather rice from their old village, but were caught on their return by soldiers who tied them up and shot them without explanation. . Around the same time, two more groups of food gatherers, totalling 32 people, were promptly killed when discovered by soldiers. In the Kho Lam area, dried beef jerky made by soldiers from the hundreds of stolen cattle has become so common that it sells for only a fraction of what it fetches elsewhere. Fishermen, honey gatherers, bamboo cutters have been killed. A Shan youth who threw water at a soldier's girlfriend during the annual water festival was clubbed to death. And a family of eight sheltering from a junta mortar attack in the basement of a house died when soldiers dropped grenades through the window. "They don't trust any of our people so their solution is to clear the area and they don't seem to care how they do it." said' one Shan social worker. ****************************************************** BKK POST: THOUSANDS OF VILLAGERS MOVED BY JUNTA July 28, 1997 by Cheewin Sattha in Mae Hong Son So far over 25,000 Shan and Karen villagers from 160 villages have been forcibly relocated to sites in the central Shan State as part of the Burmese government's strategy to prevent villagers from providing support to resistance armies, a border source said yesterday. Since last April, Burma's ruling State Law and Order . Restoration Council (Slorc) has launched one of its largest relocation programmes ever within the central Shan State. Villagers in Shan and Kayah states opposite Thailand's Mae Hong Son were given five days to move to Lai Kha district in the Doi Leam province of Shan State. Burmese soldiers threatened to shoot anyone who did not comply with the order. In the recent relocation, 1,750 villagers from 11 border villages were moved to Lai Kha during July 8-12, making the number of relocated villagers rise to 25,000, said the source. The relocation sites were merely empty areas along roads. The villagers had to build makeshift huts for shelters. They were left without any help from the Slorc. Many had reportedly suffered from malnourishment and illnesses. The relocation was part of the so called :Four Cuts Operation" - the goal being to cut off food, funds, intelligence and recruits- provided by local villagers to resistance groups, particularly the Shan United Revolutionary Army (SURA), which was fighting Burma's ruling junta. According to the source, the SURA and other minority groups have strongly condemned the Burmese government for violating human rights. They also disagreed with Asean's decision to admit Burma into its group. ******************************************************** THE NATION: THE PLOT THICKENS IN RANGOON July 29, 1997 Military intelligence chief Khin Nyunt has profited from the attempted assassination of his rival, Tin Oo, in the ongoing battle within the faction-ridden Slorc, reports Chao-Tzang Yawnghwe. The jockeying for the political high ground in the "war of succession" is going Gen Khin Nyunt's way. It seems the military intelligence chief and first secretary of the State Law and Order Restoration Council (Slorc) is the smartest of the lot, and it is likely that he will - if he plays his cards right - leave his rivals way behind. The recent round of applause from a significant number of non Burman "ceasefire" armies, lauding Khin Nyunt's press briefing in connection with the explosion at Second Secretary Tin Oo's house which killed his daughter, must be seen as a brilliant stroke of a master strategist. Khin Nyunt has been able to make use of the bomb explosion aimed at his rival Tin Oo (and an ally of Deputy Chairman Maung Aye), to his advantage - killing several birds with one stone, so to speak. First, he has been able to deflect blame away from himself for the explosion; second, blame the bombing on the opposition National League for Democracy, or its external supporters - the Americans m particular; third, compel Tin Oo and Maung Aye to accept his explanation (no matter how unconvincing); and lastly, show his rivals that he has the backing of "ceasefire armies, that is, the armed non-Burman forces which together represents a quite formidable fighting force. The beauty of Khin Nyunt's move is that it has put his rivals in a tight spot, forcing them to choose between two untenable alternatives: either to accept his explanation (hence absolving him or his supporters from blame), or to strike back hastily, an action which has little chance of success given their lack of preparation. Intra-military politics, like party politics, involves jockeying for power between factions - but it is more dangerous in the military since the factions involved are all armed. The endorsement of non-Burman "ceasefire" armies of Khin Nyunt's press briefing is particularly significant. It represents Khin Nyunt's skill as a politician - a: skill which most Slorc generals, particularly Maung Aye - are hugely deficient in. His stamping upon the Kawthoolei (Karen) flag a few months ago has shown him up as a political novice. According to sources in Shan state, Khin Nyunt has made himself very accessible to leaders of the 'ceasefire' armies. It is reported former Shan State Army leaders and Kanyod, who defected from Khun Sa, are able to personally meet Khin Nyunt whenever they request a meeting. He has also showered them with business licences, concessions, even funds. As a result, almost all leaders of "ceasefire" armies have become Khin Nyunt's clients. Their endorsement of Khin Nyunt's move to deflect blame for the bombing from his faction or allies can be seen in part as a repayment on their part for Khin Nyunt's lucrative patronage and protection. Also, sources close to "ceasefire" leaders have explained to their contacts in Thailand - to mollify Karen guerrilla leader Gen Bo Mya and other pro-democratic forces that their endorsement of Khin Nyunt is a tactical move, and that they are not in the slightest taken in by Khin Nyunt's explanation or version of the explosion. Ceasefire leaders are apparently aware of the battle of succession being waged, overtly for now, in Rangoon. Khin Nyunt is viewed by the non-Burman military leader's as being the most "liberal," comparatively speaking, and the most politically sophisticated. Most of them - except Khun Sa, the former Shan heroin kingpin - distrust Maung Aye, a rising star and believed to be Khin Nyunt's main rival and potential nemesis. It is widely believed that Khun Sa is Maung Aye's man, since it was Maung Aye, who brought Khun Sa "into the legal fold". It is widely known among the Shans that Maung Aye, while stationed in Kengtung, established close contact with businessmen closely linked to Khun Sa. (Khun Sa has, so far, not endorsed Khin Nyunt's press briefing.) Many Burmese observers abroad, as well some American diplomats believe that although Ne Win has allegedly endorsed Maung Aye as No 1, slated to replace Gen Than Shwe as the military strongman, it is unlikely that the latter will step down any time soon. Than Shwe is unambitious and would personally not mind stepping down. However, some military factions - especially intelligence factions - are reportedly nervous about Maung Aye becoming the head of Slorc. It is believed in those circles that Maung Aye is too ambitious and inflexible. As such, the consensus among observers of Rangoon politics is that Than Shwe will not step down as yet - he will be prevented from doing so by his supporters. Than Shwe's supporters and Khin Nyunt's, especially those in the intelligence service, are now believed to be drawing closer in preparation for a showdown soon, or when Ne Win dies. It is believed Than Shwe will step down only after the alliance between Khin Nyunt and his supporters is well-established and/or it is strong enough to meet challenges from within. Although many observers are of the opinion that there will be a bloody showdown shortly after Ne Win dies - if not sooner - there is a case to be made that such a bloody scenario might be averted. Burmese culture is such that those who are "inferior" always submit to those they regard as "superior". Moreover, as a veteran analyst of the Burmese military maintains, Burman military officers are generally aggressive only toward those who are unarmed. They will more likely submit to an armed rival if they judge him to be strong or "superior". It seems that Khin Nyunt is apparently well aware of this Burman trait, and has made the move - successfully, it seems - to occupy the political high ground by establishing his "superiority". Much hinges on whether or not Tin Oo and Maung Aye buy Khin Nyunt's explanation for the bomb explosion. If they accept Khin Nyunt's explanations or are compelled to do so (regardless of its accuracy or validity), it is likely that military factions which had hitherto supported Maung Aye and Tin Oo will interpret this as a sign of Khin Nyunt "superiority" over Maung Aye. It is likely, therefore, that they will rush to join Khin Nyunt's bandwagon. Thus, a bloody showdown will probably by averted. As the situation stands, it would seem that Khin Nyunt's rivals have been outflanked. Their inability to "avenge" the death of Tin Oo's daughter and their acceptance of Khin Nyunt's rather unconvincing explanation for the bombing at Tin Oo's house, indicate that their position is not as strong as most people thought it was. At any rate, their acceptance of Khin Nyunt's explanation shows how skilled Khin Nyunt is at confronting his opponents and rivals. Chao-Tzang Yawnghwe is son of the late Sao Shwe Thaike, Burma's first independent President. ****************************************************** S.H.A.N. REPORT: THE PEOPLE OF SHAN STATES JOIN THE UNPO July 28, 1997 (Shan Herald Agency for News) From: shan Representatives of the Shan States led by Sai Myo Win attended the General Assembly of the Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization -- known as the Parallel United Nations -- held in Estonia 14 - 23 July. Two other members of the delegation were Sao Surnganfah Zarmka and Sao Orngserk. The Mon People and the Shan States together with four other Peoples were formally accepted at the Assembly. The Karenni State, already a member nation, also attended. On 15 July, Sai Myo Win delivered a speech which touched the subject of the Right of Self-Determination regarding the international community. "States that the main problem of the unrepresented nations is the reluctance of the international community to recognize the rights to self-determination, especially within the context of non-state nations. The Burmese military coup and subsequent abolition of the Constitution of the Union of Burma (1997) ... frees the Shan people from contractual obligating to that union. Comments that the nature of the conflict within the Shan States has changed from an internal to an international crisis. Asks for support and guidance in gaining international attention to the situation within the Shan States," reported the UNPO. On 19 July, Resolution on the Military Occupation and Colonization of the Shan States by the Burmese Military Regime was read and adopted by the Assembly. "We agreed upon our Right to Self-Determination as evidenced by the historic Panglong Agreement signed in 1947, withdrawal of the occupation Burmese troops, to immediately cease the exploitation of our natural resources and our ownership of the land we inhabited since time immemorial," reports Sai Myo Win from Estonia. Good relation with all the Asian and Pacific region members were also reported to have been established there. ************************************************************* BKK POST: FAKE-WARY TRADERS SHUN BURMA NOTES July 29, 1997 MAE HONG SON Many businesses in Mae Hong Son are refusing to accept Burmese kyat notes because there are so many fake kyats In circulation. Somchart Sitthisantikul, former chairman of the Mae Hong Son Chamber of Commerce, said the traders were refusing to accept notes after learning that the Burmese authorities were going to demonetise 500 kyat notes marked with the serial letters AL and AM. *********************************************************** BKK POST: BURMA SET TO HOLD MAJOR GEMS FAIR July 29, 1997 TTF (Rangoon) Co, a subsidiary of Bangkok-based TTF International Go, has won approval from the Burmese government to hold Yangon Gems '97, an international fair to promote the country's gems and jewellery industry. Managing director Anan Prasertsiddhi said the fair, to be held at Traders Hotel in Rangoon on September 10-14, would give local producers and traders a chance to meet directly with foreign buyers, champion free trade and promote tourism. The fair is expected to attract some 60 Burmese companies and 5,000 industry people from around the world. ************************************************************ INDEPENDENT REPORT: THE ROHINGYAS July 29, 1997 From: Arakan Burma The term Rohingya is derived from the word "Rohai or Roshangee", a terminology perverted to Rohingya. Rohai and Roshangee are terms denoting the Muslim people inhabiting in the old Arakan ( Rohang/Roshang/Roang). Among the Muslim Population of Chittagong ( Bangladesh) two distinct ethnic characters are found; one is known as Chatganiya and the other Rohai. Although professing the same religion they have different cultural habits. In fact the Rohais of Chittagong today are those Muslim people who fled Arakan (Rohang) as a result of Burman atrocities after the country was occupied in 1784 C.E. As many as 50% of the total population of Chittagong district are Rohais who trace their ancestral origin to Arakan. The Rohingyas trace their origin to Arabs, Moors, Turks, Persians, Moghuls, Patthans and Banglees. A British army officer who served in the Arakan front during Second Great War remarked about the ethnic character of the Arakan Muslims as follow: "and to look at, they are quite unlike any other products of India or Burma that I have seen. They resemble the Arab in name, in dress and in habit. The women and more particularly the young girls, have a distinctive Arab touch about them (Burmese Outpost by Anthony Irwin, p.22)". The development of the Rohingya language is most curious. It is an admixture of different language developed during a course of more than one thousand years. It is worthwhile to mention herein that the official language of Arakan had been Persian since the days of early Mrauk-U kings till 1845, 22 years further beyond the conquest of Arakan by the Britishers. During Mrauk-U period contact with Bengal was so cordial and deep that Bengali literature had flourished in the court of Arakan. Many famous Muslim court poets who served the Kings of Arakan like Shah Alawal, Dualat Qazi, Magan Siddiqui etc. wrote in Persian and Arabic or in the mix language, Rohingya, which they developed among themselves and which was a mixture of Bengali, Persian, Arabic, and Arakanese (Rakhine). Although the Rohingya language was widespread during the era of Arakan Kings, today its existence as a written language has diminished as it was mainly destroyed by the invaders in 1784 and not preserved well by the subsequent colonialist. More information contact; P.O BOX 795 CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH Rohingyas refugees' demands: Rangoon government has to issue them with formal documents of nationality, restored democracy, handed power to the National League for Democracy leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, and guaranteed human rights. **********************************************************