THE WHITE HOUSE Office of the Press Secretary ________________________________________________________________________ For Immediate Release February 18, 1994 BACKGROUND BRIEFING BY SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL February 18, 1994 The Briefing Room 3:14 P.M. EST SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Let me begin just with some general comments on where we are, and then I'll try to answer your questions. The principals met this morning on Bosnia and on other issues for about an hour and a half, I would say, on Bosnia. And then the President went over their recommendations this afternoon. We have been consulting on Bosnia with the Congress, as you know, for several weeks now, and today we're carrying out staff consultations on the Hill. And as I was about to announce to a breathless world, the President will probably -- is likely to have a statement on all of this tomorrow, probably in the morning. Q May we assume that this statement is going to be more likely an expression of satisfaction than not? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: I think it'll be an expression of where we are. I suspect that by tomorrow morning, we will not be in a position either to express satisfaction or that we have reached conclusions one way or the other on what will be happening. So -- Q Well, is he likely to be an encouraged President, or -- Q Nonetheless, is it safe to assume that sabre- rattling is unlikely? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: I think he will discuss tomorrow, as I am about to, where we are, what our policy is, where we hope we come out. First of all, our position is very clear. As you know, NATO decided on February 9 that any heavy weapons within a 20- kilometer circle from the center of Sarajevo that is not under the control of the United Nations is subject to air attack. And, already, the NATO decision was that any artillery piece or heavy weapon firing on Sarajevo would similarly be subject to air attack. Let me emphasize that control means control, and that NATO and the U.N. have agreed in general terms that U.N. control means that the Serbs or others would have to fight to regain control of the weapons that have been placed under the U.N. So that is very clear. The decision was a decision, and a deadline is a deadline, and the deadline here is at 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on Sunday. We've, as I've said to a number of you, have tried very carefully to set goals that we can reach with available means. Air power alone cannot end the siege of Sarajevo, although it can contribute to that. It cannot compel the withdrawal of all heavy weapons, and it cannot ensure no more shelling. But we can make any who ignore NATO's decision pay a very high price. Our reports on the situation on the ground today are, I'm afraid, both incomplete and inconclusive. Many heavy weapons have been placed now under U.N. control; we know that. The Bosnian Serb leaders have said that they will comply with the NATO warning, and there has been no shelling of Sarajevo now for several days. In fact, it strikes me that we can actually say progress and Bosnia in the same sentence, which has seldom been the case in the past. But the actions taken, the actual actions taken on the ground in the next two days will tell the story. We believe that preparations for implementing the decision have gone very well. Admiral Boorda, the NATO CINC South and General Rose, the Commander of UNPROFOR forces have worked very closely and very well in working through their planning. NATO agreed with the United Nations last August that the U.N. Secretary General or his representative in Bosnia would authorize the first use of air power, and that subsequent air strikes would then be coordinated between the NATO and U.N. commanders. This is because we have to be sensitive to the safety of the UNPROFOR troops on the ground and of U.N. workers there. But we have worked out very carefully the procedures for that coordination that would take place in subsequent air strikes if we go down that road. Secretary of Defense Perry and General Shalikashvili will be going to Aviano this weekend to meet with the other ministers of defense from those countries that would be participating in air strikes. The purpose of that meeting is not to redefine the NATO decision or indeed to make new decisions, but to review the planning and the readiness of the NATO forces. And let me again emphasize that from all reports, NATO is prepared to act. As on other issues, we want to put power at the service of diplomacy. And as you know, Ambassador Redman, our representative to the talks, is in the area, has been meeting with our European allies, representatives, with the Russians and with the parties to work towards progress towards a settlement. Just a word on the role of our allies and friends in all of this. We have worked with the French and the Russians and others to make the progress that has thus far been gained, and we welcome their contribution. But let me emphasize that no progress would have been possible had it not been for the leadership of the President at the NATO Summit in getting the NATO warning over Sarajevo reaffirmed, and making it very clear to our allies that they should not sign up to that warning if they weren't serious about it, and I think that helped contribute to their going along now as they have in recent days, and the President's leadership since. And I can tell you that he has been very engaged on a daily basis. We have been discussing this with him probably twice a day or more every day for the past couple of weeks, certainly since -- yes, for the past couple of weeks, and he has been making a number of phone calls to foreign leaders, et cetera. As he said last Wednesday in this room, the reason for this engagement is that we have important American interests at stake here in avoiding a larger war in the region, in the strength and credibility of NATO, in preventing new refugee flows throughout Europe, in our relations in the Muslim world, and, put simply, a humanitarian interest that each of us felt again when we saw the carnage in the marketplace in Sarajevo just two weeks ago. In short, the NATO decision stands. A decision is a decision, a deadline is a deadline. We all hope -- all of us -- hope that there will be no need to use force, but we are determined to follow through on the NATO decision, if necessary. Q To what extent were you surprised by the Russian initiatives? Not by them becoming engaged, but by the specificity of it and the troops? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: The President, when he spoke to President Yeltsin a week ago, encouraged the Russians to be involved in gaining Serbian cooperation. And in a number of subsequent conversations, we had made the same point with the Russians. So in general terms, it was -- we knew that they were engaged. The specifics of that agreement we had not known in advance, but I suspect that the Russians and the Serbs had not known the specifics of the agreement until they reached it, and then went right out to announce it. We have since talked to the Russians, of course, about it. Let me say a word about the -- Q Today? Talked to the Russians -- did the President talk today? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: The President has not talked to Yeltsin today. They have been in touch in writing, exchanging letters. On the Russian decision itself to send troops into Sarajevo, we think that this will be a useful contribution so long as it is in the context of the United Nations, so long as the Russian troops are under the operational control of General Rose. And that is being worked out between General Rose and the Russians. Q The Russians still agree to that? Q In other words, if there not -- you have some concerns that if they're not under the U.N. flag that -- SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: We think they will be. Q Do you have any sense of the percentage of the armament that was to be moved that has now been moved, and how much more needs to be done in the next 48 hours? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: We can't be sure yet. Q Rough calculus? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Clearly -- I'd say so far, between 50 and 100 heavy pieces -- heavy weapons have been placed under U.N. control. Q About how many? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Some hundreds. But we just -- Q So there's a lot to be done? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: There is more to be done. We don't know how much has been done in recent hours. And as I said, our reports are inconclusive on that point. We have been told that they intend to get it done by the deadline; we'll have to see. Q Given the terrain and given the weather conditions that they say are supposedly slowing some of the withdrawals, are you confident that you'll even know for certain how much progress has been made by the deadline? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Obviously, we think we'll know a lot more by then. The U.N. is now working on ways in which to verify as best they can that they have been removed. And it's really kind of simple. Again, any pieces that are found after the deadline are subject to air attack. So just to emphasize that point so you understand what's going on here, this is not a case in which we certify on deadline plus one minute that they are either all out or not all out. Because, again, it's very hard in a situation in which pieces can -- mortars can be hidden, moved around or whatever to make that certification; that's why we've been very careful in stating our objectives here. What we can say is what I just did say, which is that if we find them after then, they are at risk and will pay a price. Q Why do you think the Russians actually decided to come in, and do you think now this capitulation on the part of the Serbs is going to be permanent and that they really will really will lead to peace? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: I think the Russians -- first of all, they didn't just come in, they've been involved at various stages on the diplomatic side in working with us and in trying to encourage the peace process all along last spring. And subsequently as to why they are, I think that the Russians believe, as the important nation that they are, that they have a responsibility to be involved. There's also an historic, longstanding tie between the Russians and the Serbs, in interests which they are pursuing. So I think they had many of the same interests that we do in being involved. On whether this will bring peace, that is going to depend on the other avenue that we're pursuing of making progress in achieving a peaceful settlement. And we think that the Russians are going to play a constructive role in that. We're going to be working with them in various ways over the coming weeks in consulting. The President has said that he wishes to work directly with President Yeltsin on this. Ambassador Redman will be doing so. Secretary Christopher is talking to the Foreign Minister. Q But they are Johnny Come Lately on this story, aren't they? They have not really been active -- the Russians. SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: I think they have been active, as I said, over the last year. You'll recall Foreign Minister Kozyrev came here, I believe late last spring, working on this. And I think again, we welcome whatever participation -- Q What do you make of Mr. Churkin's statement that the choice now is really between negotiation and all-out war and that all-out war will ensue if there are NATO air strikes? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: I think it's not exactly the way I would have put it, but clearly the stakes -- (laughter) -- my Russian isn't very good. But, clearly, the stakes are very high here, and I think we are at a moment, because of the military realities on the ground, because of the NATO position in which diplomatic progress now can be made, we hope that the parties recognize this, and this may be a moment for progress that might not come again for some time. Q And do you believe that that statement is true? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Which -- that the choice is either all-out war or peace? Q That's right. Well, no, that if there are air strikes, there is war? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: No, I don't think it is necessarily true. Q Because? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Well, because we don't know if there are air strikes, what the Serbian reaction would be. We would hope that they would recognize, for example, that -- Q He's talking about the Russian reaction, isn't he? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Oh, I don't think so. No, I think he's talking about all-out war within Bosnia. Correct me if I'm wrong. Q Good thing, huh? Q What about the notion of an international conference? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: I'm glad you clarified that. Q The Russians apparently are also asking for some sort of international conference next week on Bosnia? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: We haven't received such a proposal. Q Would you be in favor of such a conference? Would you support such a conference next week? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: I think we want to make sure that whatever happens next doesn't interfere with the processes now underway, and we would have to look at it in that context. Q When Kozyrev made this announcement, he said that he wanted to promote a more active American role. Is it a coded message to let you know that he wants you to put more pressure on the Muslims? How do you interpret what appears to be a criticism? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: I think the American role has been extraordinarily active for the last few weeks, and that's the reason for the progress that we have seen going back again to the NATO summit and the preparations for it. Q In repeating General Rose's statement that the Serbs will have to fight to get back any weapons left behind in the zone, are you saying that none of those weapons will ever be returned to the Serbs, that if they leave them inside 20 miles of Sarajevo, they're abandoning them forever? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: So long as they -- it's an interesting question that thus far has not come up in a practical sense. I would suppose that, certainly, so long as they are within the 20-kilometer area, or they have an intention to keep them there, that they remain under that U.N. control. And the meaning of the phrase is, again, that when they come under control, it means that the crews are separated from the pieces, and that the U.N. is interposed so that the crews would have to use force to get back at them. Q Given the Russians' opposition -- SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: The reason I hesitate is there's all kinds of future possibilities of, is there a settlement, or if not, who owns them, whatever, and I just don't think we need to decide those quite yet. Q Given Russia's opposition to the bombing strikes in the first place, do you see no chance that the troops would be used to shield any of the weapons the Serbs either cannot or will not move? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: I'm sorry, there are too many negatives in that. Sorry, could you try it again? Q What if the Russian troops stand next to a piece of Serb artillery? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: If, as we assume they will be, the Russian forces are under U.N. operational command, we expect that they will be. Q What if they're not, sir? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: We expect that they will be. (Laughter.) Q Can you operate on that? Q I mean, that's my point. They're opposed to the bombing strikes to begin with. If they believe that the Serbs have made enough of an effort that the U.N. and NATO, if there's a difference over the amount of effort the Serbs have made -- SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: I'm giving you a -- no, I understand. I'm giving you a serious answer. We do not expect that the Russians will be sending their troops in to defend Serbian artillery pieces. We expect that they will be under U.N. operational control. And if they are, then the Russian troops, by definition, will be controlling those weapons for the U.N. and the issue doesn't arise. Do you see what I mean? Q Where are the Russian troops now? I mean, are you waiting until you work this out before they come in or are they kind of roaming around and putting themselves where they want to at this moment waiting for -- SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: I'm not sure exactly where they are now, but I do know that the Russians are talking to General Rose about this. Q In terms of a two-year war that's claimed almost 200,000 lives, how big of a milestone is it if the Serbs withdraw their weapons from Sarajevo? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: I think it's a tremendous milestone. I think it -- first of all, Sarajevo, as the capital, as the largest city, as the focus of so much of the carnage and suffering is, in itself, if, as the shelling ceases, is a tremendous step forward in political and humanitarian terms. But, perhaps even more importantly, I think that these events around Sarajevo and the assertion of NATO decisiveness and strength will give a tremendous boost to the possibilities of a peaceful settlement then. Because, again, you cannot separate power and diplomacy. Q I'm trying to get to the same question differently. As French troops now, and perhaps tomorrow Russian troops will be positioned in the middle, more and more of the United Nations forces will be moving from humanitarian to a peacekeeping job. Now, when we understand that the Russians do not have the same understanding of peacekeeping as we are, as reflected in Tajikistan or elsewhere, don't you foresee a problem, long-term, trying to do business with the Russians in terms of peacekeeping? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Well, the Russian troops already have been working with the U.N. simply outside Bosnia and again -- Q Yes, but not as peacekeepers? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: And, again -- Q Not as anti-position forces? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: -- this is one reason why we believe it is so important they be under the operational control of the U.N. Q Do you have assurances from the Russians about their motivations and intentions here, and if so, from what level? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Oh, I think at every level. In the President's conversations -- do you mean in general terms or on this -- Q Specifically about their sending 800 troops and to Wendell's question about whether they might position themselves to get in the way of Serb -- of us shelling Serb artillery. SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: This is, again, primarily an issue between the U.N. and the Russians. But we will be discussing it with them over the next day or so. Q That means you do not have any assurances, sir? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: No, again, as I said, we were not informed in advance of their plan for this, but we are discussing it with them. Q Can you elaborate a little bit on what the President hopes to achieve by coming to the podium tomorrow, 24 or 36 hours before this deadline? Q Sunday papers. (Laughter.) Q How cynical of you. Q Other than that. Q What's the message going to be to the Serbs, to the Russians, to the rest of the world? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: I think he will likely come here to speak about -- first of all -- let me back up. Because there is a clear possibility that American aircraft will be taking part in a NATO operation over Bosnia within, by the way, as has General Shalikashvili and others have been saying, within, we believe, the acceptable levels of risk. But nonetheless, they could well be taking part in such an operation, that it is important that the President, as he did last Wednesday, be telling the American people why this is important, what American interests are at stake and what our clear but limited objectives are in doing so. I do not think he will be in a position tomorrow morning to tell you exactly what will happen Sunday evening any more than I can, although we hope that the situation on the ground will be somewhat clearer than it is now. Q Can you tell us anything about the letters -- the exchange of letters or whatever the written communication was between Yeltsin and the President that you referred to? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: I think, in general, it was expressions on both sides of the importance of our working together on it. Q And when was this done? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Yesterday. Q After the Russian announcement that they were sending troops? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Before, I think Q Has there been any communication since that announcement? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Not between Yeltsin and Clinton. I believe that Christopher is talking to Kozyrev, but you'll have to check at the State Department on that. Q So it was one letter from Yeltsin or can you clarify that? It was one letter from Yeltsin to the President -- SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: There was a letter from Yeltsin and a response from the President. Q And there was no mention of this conference, international peace conference that Kozyrev announced today? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: No, because again, if I can recall the timing, I would not read too much into that -- and as I said, I suspect that the Russians didn't know what the Serbs would agree to by the time that Yeltsin had written. The Yeltsin letter may have been, in fact, from the previous evening. Q And what are the consultations on the Hill about? What are you breaking the Hill about? Is there a war powers regulation that you're trying to comply with? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: The President did send a report to the Hill -- to the Congress consistent with the War Powers Act describing the situation and what we have been doing on Bosnia actually over the preceding months. The consultations are at a staff level -- as you know, our Congress is in recess simply to bring members of Congress' staffs up to date on where we are rather along the lines that I just have with you. Q Can you just clarify for us what the basis is of the U.S. optimism that Russians troops are under -- would be under U.N. command? Is that based on conversations you or -- SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: No, as I said, we are having those conversations now, but we expect that we will. Q So the current basis for that optimism is what? What is the current reason for your optimism? SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Well, because the Russian troops have been already working within a U.N. context and clearly, the current context in Sarajevo is a U.N. one. So, as I said, I would be very surprised if there was a problem here. Thank you. END3:43 P.M. EST