Moody's Commodity Spot Index

Historical Perspective

The index is assumed to have completed wave [2] of supercycle dimension in 1933 (see 3-month chart). Primary wave [i] completed in 1951. Primary wave [ii] has taken the form of a double-three running correction. The first phase was a triangle between 1951-71. The intervening X-wave peaked in 1980. We have been consolidating in a triangle since then. The triangle will complete sometime after it meets the lower trendline.

Since wave [iii] must be at least 161.8% of wave [i], using logarithmic measurements yields a target of approximately 22250. Also since wave [ii] was much longer timewise than wave [i], wave [iii] should be equal to wave [i] in time or should relate to it by 61.8%. This suggests that wave [iii] will take at least 12.75 years. Therefore, wave [iii] will not peak until 2008-2009.

For an interesting parallel, see the analysis of the S&P 500..