Moody's Commodity Spot Index
Historical Perspective
The index is assumed to have completed wave [2] of supercycle
dimension in 1933 (see 3-month
chart). Primary wave [i] completed in 1951. Primary wave [ii] has
taken the form of a double-three running correction. The first phase
was a triangle between 1951-71. The intervening X-wave peaked in 1980.
We have been consolidating in a triangle since then. The triangle
will complete sometime after it meets the lower trendline.
Since wave [iii] must be at least 161.8% of wave [i], using
logarithmic measurements yields a target of approximately 22250. Also
since wave [ii] was much longer timewise than wave [i], wave [iii] should be
equal to wave [i] in time or should relate to it by 61.8%. This
suggests that wave [iii] will take at least 12.75 years. Therefore,
wave [iii] will not peak until 2008-2009.
For an interesting parallel, see the analysis of the S&P 500..