Subject: CND Survey Report on China's MFN Trade Status with U.S.

From: [email-masked]
Date: Fri, 28 May 1993 22:29:55 -0500

*  *  *   C h i n a   N e w s   D i g e s t   *  *  *

                            Friday, May 28, 1993

                CND Survey Report on Readers' Attitude Towards
     Renewal of China's Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) Trade Status with U.S.

Table of Contents                                                 # of Lines
============================================================================
1. Introduction ......................................................... 30
2. The Survey ........................................................... 30
3. The Result .......................................................... 120
4. The Conclusion ....................................................... 30
Attachment: Full Text of the Survey Questionnaire ...................... 100
============================================================================

1. Introduction
---------------

Time flies and Chinese communities turn again their attention to another
controversial issue, which emerges every year around June 4th since that
day of 1989.  i.e., whether or not the U.S. government should or would
renew China's Most Favored Nation (MFN) trade status, and if China's MFN
is to be renewed, should any conditions be attached to the renewal?

Since the normalization of Sino-U.S. diplomatic relation in 1979, many
privileges were exchanged between the two countries in a spirit of
cooperation.  Therefore, China joined the long list of the MFN countries.
However, just as for all other "friendly" Communist countries, this trade
privilege needs to be reviewed and renewed by the U.S. government every year
per the U.S. law.  It was barely a public-attention-catching issue before
June 4th, 1989.  Probably most ordinary people did not pay any attention to
it since China's MFN trade status seemed always being renewed mechanically
every year.

But, after the June 4th Massacre, this issue has become so disputed that it
has been brought up to the public attention again and again, especially when
the time for the annual renewal comes by (early June of each year).  It might
be simply a politician's game, but overseas Chinese communities just can't
ignore it easily and forever.  Gradually, ordinary people start observing,
thinking about, talking about and debating the issue.

For the past four years, CND has brought related reports to readers with a
great effort. This time, while continuing to report news from other sources,
we also turned to readers for a report of our own. i.e., how CND readers
think about China's MFN status.  Being a news medium run by volunteers, CND
as a whole takes no stand on such controversial issues. Regarding this MFN
issue, we respect readers' thoughts and activities as well.

2. The Survey
-------------

The CND survey of readers' attitude towards the MFN issue was conducted from
May 18th to May 25th, 1993, as a sampled survey. It took 8 days as scheduled.
We randomly chose 702 readers from our subscription list to enter this survey.
The intended population is more than 26,000 CND direct subscribers, a virtual
community spreading all over the world on the computer network.

A survey questionnaire was delivered to those randomly selected readers on
May 18th.  The questionnaire contains 9 questions, and a comment section (A
complete copy of the questionnaire is attached to this report).  On May 22nd,
a reminding message was sent to those who didn't reply to the survey by then.

By the time this survey was closed, we received 152 valid answers, and one
address was identified as unable to receive the survey message.  Thus, the
return rate for this survey is close to 22%, not counting a couple of
"comment only" messages.  This return rate is lower than the one for the
recently finished reader survey on Beijing's bid for the 2000 Olympics.

We speculate that at least several factors have impacts on this low return
rate.  Firstly, we had a very tight schedule when we started to plan this
survey. Secondly, being short of man-power, we only sent out one follow-up
message.  Thirdly, many readers might have left computer network for Summer
Break.  Fourthly, Mr. Clinton's decision on this issue was revealed on May
24th, which forced us to abandon a plan to extend the deadline for the
survey.

While we feel a bit disappointed for this relatively low return rate, we
appreciate very much the efforts of those who replied to the survey.  We
will strive to improve the return rate in future reader surveys.  We also
wish our readers, who are chosen to participate our future surveys, will
be more supportive.

3. The Result
-------------

Due to the tight time frame, we designed all questionnaire questions in the
binary fashion.  This would enable us to choose a small sample size and to
speed up the process.  In compensation, we provided a comment section for
people who would feel limited otherwise  (A summary of the responder
comments will be reported in a separate issue of CND-Global).  Several
responders questioned the flexibility of the question design, the point is
taken.

The following charts display the overall result of this survey. Please note
that the wording of questions is altered to fit into the space.  The lower
return rate influences the size of error margins in turn.  For this survey,
the error margins ranges between plus and minus 6-8%.  The statistics for
missing answer or (no opinion) are not included in the chart.  The
percentages may not be added up to 100% due to number rounding.

The first three statements tend to favor the unconditional renewal of
China's MFN trade status.  More readers agree than those who disagree.

                                                               (N=152)
+---------------------------------------+----------+----------+-------+
|                                       |  Agree   | Disagree | Error |
|  Questions 1, 2 and 3                 +----------+----------|Margins|
|                                       |  n  |  % |  n  |  % |  +/-  |
+---------------------------------------+-----+----+-----+----+-------+
|The MFN status is a mutual arrangement |  98 | 65%|  53 | 34%|   8%  |
|for Sino-U.S trade. The U.S. government|     |    |     |    |       |
|shouldn't use MFN issue as a diplomatic|     |    |     |    |       |
|or political approach for conflicting  |     |    |     |    |       |
|issues between two countries.          |     |    |     |    |       |
+---------------------------------------+-----+----+-----+----+-------+
|The MFN status is in the best interest | 128 | 84%|  24 | 16%|   6%  |
|of both nations, and suspending China's|     |    |     |    |       |
|MFN status will backfire on U.S. eco-  |     |    |     |    |       |
|nomy one way or the other.             |     |    |     |    |       |
+---------------------------------------+-----+----+-----+----+-------+
|China's economy benefits from the MFN  | 124 | 82%|  26 | 17%|   6%  |
|trade status greatly, while losing the |     |    |     |    |       |
|status may drag back the economic deve-|     |    |     |    |       |
|lopment in China one way or another.   |     |    |     |    |       |
+---------------------------------------+-----+----+-----+----+-------+

The next three statements tend to favor the conditional renewal of China's
MFN trade status.  More readers hold a disapproval attitude instead of
approval, except on Question #6.  Taking into the account of the error
margins for Question #6, however, the data reported here could barely break
even between "approval" and "disapproval".  We have several comments stating
against mixing political issues with trade issues.  Such comments to this
question may imply that readers recognize that trade deficit is an important
issue and accept the idea of using trade status to resolve trade issues.

                                                                (N=152)
+---------------------------------------+----------+----------+-------+
|                                       | Approval |Disapprvl.| Error |
|  Questions 4, 5 and 6                 +----------+----------|Margins|
|                                       |  n  |  % |  n  |  % |  +/-  |
+---------------------------------------+-----+----+-----+----+-------+
|Improving China's human rights situa-  |  56 | 37%|  94 | 62 |   8%  |
|tion should be a condition for renewal |     |    |     |    |       |
|of China's MFN trade status.           |     |    |     |    |       |
+---------------------------------------+-----+----+-----+----+-------+
|Stopping China's weapons exporting to  |  35 | 23%| 113 | 74%|   7%  |
|controversial areas in the world should|     |    |     |    |       |
|be a condition for renewing China's MFN|     |    |     |    |       |
|status.                                |     |    |     |    |       |
+---------------------------------------+-----+----+-----+----+-------+
|Forcing China to open up more marketing|  88 | 58%|  62 | 40%|   8%  |
|opportunities to U.S. business in order|     |    |     |    |       |
|to reduce the trade deficit should be a|     |    |     |    |       |
|condition to renew China's MFN status. |     |    |     |    |       |
+---------------------------------------+-----+----+-----+----+-------+

The last two questions asked for reader's speculation on the possible
outcome of U.S. government's decision on the MFN issue and readers' own
stand as well.  It is obvious that readers tended to believe Mr. Clinton
would attach some conditions for China's renewal of the MFN status, while
they supported the solution of unconditional renewal, if possible.  Please
note that our original questions also included an option of "Revoking
China's MFN status" for each question, but no responder took that option.

We received eight replies after Mr. Clinton's decision was reported in
May 25's CND-Global.  Among them, one still believed the result would be
unconditional renewal while seven believe the result would be otherwise.
We are not certain if CND or other media's reports of Clinton's decision
would have impacts on those 8 replies.  But since they wouldn't change
the general tendency of our data, we didn't omit their answers in our
statistics.

                                                                (N=152)
+---------------------------------------+----------+----------+-------+
|                                       |  U--MFN  |  C--MFN  | Error |
|  Questions 7 and 8                    +----------+----------|Margins|
|                                       |  n  |  % |  n  |  % |  +/-  |
+---------------------------------------+-----+----+-----+----+-------+
|Your best guess for U.S. government's  |  54 | 36%|  96 | 63%|   8%  |
|decision towards MFN issue will be     |     |    |     |    |       |
+---------------------------------------+-----+----+-----+----+-------+
|You think currently you could be best  | 107 | 70%|  44 | 29%|   7%  |
|described as a supporter of            |     |    |     |    |       |
+---------------------------------------+-----+----+-----+----+-------+

Due to the relatively low return rate, we are cautious not to jump into any
firm conclusions.  However, we believed that the data we collected were close
to the tendency of the intended population.  We made an informal checking by
comparing the 74 replies we received at the first day and all others, and
found that the pattern of these two sets of data are basically matched. This
encourages us to draw a single conclusion that this year about 2/3 of CND
readers tended to support the solution of unconditional renewal of China's
MFN trade status and 1/3 of readers support the conditional renewal of
China's MFN trade status.  Meanwhile, it is noticed that more than half of
the people might accept the idea of using the trade status as the leverage
for U.S. to solve trade deficit issue.

Question 9 asked responders for their geographical locations, please see
the end of section 4 (The Conclusion) for the result.

4. The Conclusion
-----------------

On May 24th, U.S. President Clinton reportedly made his decision on the
issue focused in this survey.  Here is the News Brief item carried in May
25's CND-Global.

     [AP, 05/25/93] WASHINGTON -- President Clinton has decided to renew
     favorable trade privileges to China for one year on condition the
     Communist regime improves its record on human rights, trade and
     weapon sales to radical governments, administration officials said
     Monday.  The president is consulting with congressional leaders on
     the precise wording of conditions that would extend most-favored
     nation status to China, said the officials, speaking on condition
     of anonymity.  China in recent weeks has freed some prominent
     dissidents to try to boost its image and improve relations with the
     United States.  (Forwarded By: Deming)

It is clear that U.S. government has less faith at Chinese government than
they did before June 4th, 1989.  This seems not a gospel for our readers
since 2/3 of them would expect a different outcome than that. For those
who support the conditional renewal, this turn may be a positive sign if
the conditions they supported are attached.

As we are finalizing this report, we received the following news dated
May 28, 1993:

     WASHINGTON (AP-DJ) -- President Clinton Friday extended for another
     year China's trade privileges with the United States, but attached
     provisions requiring China to meet new terms, including improvement
     of human rights standards.

     Clinton called the new terms "a new chapter in United States policy
     to China."

     Clinton announced an one-year extension of China's most favored nation
     -- or MFN -- trade status. The treatment allows countries to sell to
     the United States at reduced tariffs.

     "If the Chinese don't a make serious effort and meet these conditions,
     the president will certainly ... be prepared to revoke MFN. That's
     very clear," said Winston Lord, onetime ambassador to Beijing and now
     assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs.

     ... (For details, please see May 29's CND-Global)

Meanwhile, no matter how it develops, the MFN issue would still be an
important topic of next year as well.  In finishing this report, we hope
that next time we could do a better job in conducting similar reader
survey.

Finally, we would like to thank again the 108 responders from the United
States, 15 from United Kingdom, 11 from Canada, 4 from Australia, 2 each
from Austria, Finland, and Switzerland, 1 each from Belgium, France,
Germany, Hungary, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, and Spain.  By putting them
together, we hope the voice of our readers are heard here.

China News Digest
May 28, 1993

Attachment:
----------

              CND Survey Questionnaire on China's MFN Trade Status
              ----------------------------------------------------

NOTE:     For question (1)-(3), if you agree with all the expressions in
          the question statement, your answer is "a".  If you disagree
          with any part of the expressions, your answer is "b".

[ ]  (1) It is said that since the MFN status is a mutual arrangement
     for trading between China and U.S., the U.S. Administration should
     not use MFN status as a diplomatic or political approach for
     conflicting issues between two countries.
     Your opinion towards this statement is,

          a) Agree
          b) Disagree

[ ]  (2) It is said that MFN status is in the best interest of both
     countries, while suspending the status will backfire on U.S.
     economy one way or the other.
     Your opinion towards this statement is,

          a) Agree
          b) Disagree

[ ]  (3) It is said that China's economic development is benefits from
     the MFN status at a great degree, while losing the status may drag
     back the economic development in China one way or the other.
     Your opinion towards this statement is,

          a) Agree
          b) Disagree

NOTE:     For question (4)-(6), if you agree that the condition is
          necessary or relevant, your answer is "a".  If you think the
          condition is unnecessary or irrelevant, your answer is "b".

[ ]  (4) Since June 4th, 1989, U.S. government becomes more concerned about
     China's human rights violation. Improving China's human rights situation
     is considered as an important condition to renew China's MFN status.
     Your attitude towards this motion is,

          a) Approve
          b) Disprove

[ ]  (5) According to various resources, U.S. government repeatedly
     complains about China's weapon exports to the third world countries.
     Stopping China's weapons exports to areas of conflict is widely
     considered as an important condition to renew China's MFN status.
     Your attitude towards this motion is,

          a) Approve
          b) Disprove

[ ]  (6) In the recent years, China quickly became the country with the
     second largest trade surplus with the U.S..  Thus, forcing China to
     open more marketing opportunity for American business is considered
     as an important condition to renew China's MFN status.
     Your attitude towards this motion is,

          a) Approve
          b) Disprove

[ ]  (7) Your best guess for U.S. administration's decision towards
     China MFN issue finally will be,

          a) Unconditional renew China's MFN status
          b) Conditional renew China's MFN status
          c) Revoking China's MFN status

[ ]  (8) After all considered, you think currently you could be best
     described as a supporter to the mainstream of,

          a) Unconditional renewal of China's MFN status
          b) Conditional renewal of China's MFN status
          c) Revoking China's MFN status

[ ]  (9) Please write in the square brackets the name of the country or
     area you are at when replying to this questionnaire.

[Comment Section Begins]

(Note:  Only comments, no more than ten lines, to be placed here.
        If you are not to include original message in your reply,
        please use the above and below delimiters to separate your
        answers from comments for our computer program to extract.)

[Comment Section Ends]

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