==+==+==+== C h i n e s e C o m m u n i t y F o r u m ==+==+==+=== Sunday, March 20, 1994 (Issue No. 9413, Weekend Edition) +=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+= Chinese Community Forum (CCF) is a journal published on China-Net. CCF is dedicated to the discussion on the issues related to the Chinese community. The opinions expressed here do not necessarily represent the views of the Editorial Board of CCF. Contributions to the discussions and suggestions of new topics are very much appreciated. +=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+= # of Table of Contents Author | Lines ============================================================================ 1. China And The U.S.: A Dangerous Misunderstanding.................. Joyce Barnathan, Dave Lindorff, Lynne Curry, and Douglas Harbrecht 96 2. Playing Chinese Chicken........................................... .......Steven Strasser, Karen Breslau, Matthew Forney and Bob Cohn 114 3. Colliding With China.................................The Economist 103 4. The China Syndrome................................................ .....Susan V. Lawrence, Louise Lief, Jim Impoco And Jennifer Seter 150 ===========***==========***==========**==========***==========***=========== From The Editor ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Recent arrests and detentions of dissidents by the Chinese Government and the almost empty-handed visit to Beijing by Warren Christopher have brought new tension to the Sino-US relationship. Prior to all of these, people were almost certain that the relationship would improve and China's MFN trading status could well be renewed. After all of these, everything seems uncertain. In the last issue of Chinese Community Forum, we carried two articles written by Chinese students in this country to discuss their view. Here we collected several articles from the Western news media on these issues. We hope that we can help you to gain a broad perspective on the issues of MFN and Sino-US relationship. We certainly would be more interested in your thoughts as the June 3 deadline approaches. ===========***==========***==========**==========***==========***=========== 1. China And The U.S.: A Dangerous Misunderstanding.................. Joyce Barnathan, Dave Lindorff, Lynne Curry, and Douglas Harbrecht 96 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- On the eve of a crucial visit by U. S. Secretary of State Warren M. Christopher, China has launched a crackdown on dissidents. China's most prominent activist, Wei Jingsheng, was detained on March 4 and then banished to the provinces after dining with visiting U. S. Assistant Secretary of State for Human Rights John Shattuck. A total of 13 other dissidents were detained or arrested. While it may be that the Chinese authorities were just trying to punish Shattuck for what they considered rude behavior by a guest, the round-up has produced major strains in U. S.-Chinese relations. Passing through Hong Kong on his way home from Beijing, Shattuck sounded the alarm. "Oh my God, not another one," he said when informed that another activist had been hauled off. There could be very serious consequences unless the Chinese make concessions to Christopher-- as some State Dept. officials believe they will. BASIC ERRORS? Regardless of the outcome, this series of events reveals dangerous misunderstandings between the two governments. Because the Clinton Administration is so eager to cultivate China as a major growth area for exports, it has failed to convince the Chinese that the U. S. is also serious about human rights. For their part, China's leaders have underestimated how badly their efforts to snuff out dissent would play in Washington. "It's a terrible thing to see the Chinese make basic errors in judgment," says Ian Perkins, chief economist at the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce. "The timing couldn't have been worse." That's because China's crackdown comes as the annual battle on renewing its most-favored-nation trade status heats up in Washington. In order for China to keep MFN status, President Clinton has said that Beijing must make "overall, significant progress" on human rights. But under the present circumstances, the President can hardly make the case that China has met that standard. Senior U. S. officials see themselves in a terrible dilemma. On the one hand, muses one, there is "no way" Clinton would put U. S. jobs at risk. But then he asks: "How can the U. S. not revoke MFN [if the Chinese don't ease up]? They are making the impossible inevitable." Without MFN, tariffs would soar, pricing many Chinese exports out of the U.S. market. That has Western executives with a stake in China on edge. "I think people in the American business community are very worried," says Thomas D. Gorman, a Hong Kong-based American publisher. "They're on a collision course." Why is China playing such a dangerous game? One problem is that Beijing has been getting confusing signals from Washington. Since the Administration began a series of high-level talks with China last September, U. S. officials have repeatedly said that to be assured of MFN status China must show progress on specific human-rights issues such as accounting for and releasing jailed dissidents and complying with a 1992 deal on prison labor. But U. S. officials also have made clear that China's fast-growing market presents mind-boggling opportunities for American business. Analysts say statements by senior Administration officials about delinking MFN and human rights have misled the Chinese. Beijing apparently believes the Administration won't jeopardize the $3 billion U. S. business has invested in China or the thousands of jobs created by orders for such items as Boeing jets or Motorola cellular phones. "If they buy 40 Boeing jets, the Chinese feel they have bought MFN," says a Western diplomat in Hong Kong. China also has its own reasons for being unwilling to tolerate dissent. With the 89-year-old Deng Xiaoping looking increasingly frail, the power struggle in Beijing is intensifying. As a National People's Congress convenes this week, no leadership contender wants to look as if he is caving in to the U.S. Also, Chinese leaders don't think they can afford dissent while they are trying to push through radical economic reforms that will lead to closing state factories, perhaps putting employees out of work. "1994 is likely to be a difficult year because of rising prices and the real-income loss for the man in the street," says a European diplomat in Beijing. "Strikes are a very real fear." But Wei has energized political activists in Beijing and Shanghai since his release last fall after nearly 15 years in prison. The dissidents may be using the Christopher and Shattuck visits as cover. They also seem to be allying themselves with discontented workers and peasants--something the government views as a grave threat. Three of those arrested were authors of the Peace Charter, an underground petition signed by about 350 dissidents. It calls for the National People's Congress to do everything from assuring workers the right to strike to requiring families of senior officials to publicly declare their assets as a way to fight corruption. Despite the soured atmosphere, there's still time to mend relations. In the past, the Chinese have made narrow concessions to allow MFN to squeak by. If that's going to happen, Christopher is going to have to make his message heard in Beijing. He's off to a rocky start. Before his arrival in China, he warned that it must improve its dismal human-rights record or risk losing MFN status. But he also announced that the Administration was lifting sanctions imposed last year on the sale of satellite technology to China. It's yet another confusing signal from Washington. [From Business Week, March 21, 1994] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2. Playing Chinese Chicken........................................... .......Steven Strasser, Karen Breslau, Matthew Forney and Bob Cohn 114 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- TENSIONS: Clinton doesn't want a trade war--but Beijing doesn't want to hear about human rights On his way to Beijing last week, Warren Christopher said he was "concerned that the Chinese are moving in the wrong direction" on human rights. That was tough talk by Christopher's standards but hardly enough to impress the Chinese. On the day the secretary of state arrived, Shanghai police swept up two dissidents; three Beijing human-rights leaders fled the city to escape arrest, and authorities briefly detained two American journalists outside the home of an independent labor activist who also had dropped from sight. Christopher had hoped to convince the Chinese that concessions on human rights would be rewarded with continued U.S. trade and technology. But after a tense half day with China's foreign minister, Christopher could only quip, "I wish the meeting had been as good as the lunch." Now the challenge is to keep three days of heartburn in Beijing from opening a rift in Sino-U.S. relations that nobody wants. Within three months, Bill Clinton must decide whether China has met his standards for "overall, significant progress" in human rights. If not, he insists, Washington will revoke China's trade privileges as a most-favored nation (MFN). Congressional leaders are leaning on the White House to follow through. China could lose a catastrophic $10 billion in annual exports to the United States, as well as a million jobs in export industries. U.S. losses would be just as devastating. American investors have flooded into China in the last two years; 200 U.S. companies have registered in Shanghai alone. If these pioneers and U.S. giants like Boeing and AT&T are frozen out of the China market, Japanese and European competitors are ready to move in. A Sino-U.S. trade war would have costs beyond dollars and cents: it would bolster China's forces of party control and state enterprise, while isolating the new class of private entrepreneurs. "By lifting MFN we would to a large extent be hurting the very people who are liberalizing China," says a U.S. official. The dissidents who have re-emerged to campaign for human rights and free unions almost unanimously support MFN as an important aid in moving their country toward freedom. U.S. officials were furious that China staged a highly public crackdown on the eve of Christopher's arrival. Some blamed Communist "troglodytes" focused only on their internal power struggles. "We are involved in a really dangerous game of chicken." said one administration official, but the Chinese "just don't get it." Winston Lord, the assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, detonated when a Chinese spokesman accused America of "casting shadows." For Beijing to accuse Washington of bad faith while rounding up dissidents "is really an extraordinary act of chutzpah," he said. Christopher tried to make the U.S. dismay perfectly clear. He didn't give an arrival statement because aides couldn't find words that would neither unduly offend nor encourage their hosts. Christopher also decided against an official banquet so that he wouldn't have to give a toast--and even canned a scheduled sightseeing tour of the Forbidden City to avoid any suggestion that he might be having fun. BAD TIME: Yet the ugly diplomacy was partly an accident of timing. Due to commitments in Australia and Japan, Christopher arrived in Beijing just as the National People's Congress, China's parliament, was convening. "It's not a good time to visit," says a Chinese official. Translation: it's Christopher's problem if he shows up while Beijing is clearing out the usual troublemakers before a big government meeting. Christopher wanted his trip to be the culmination of the Clinton administration's policy of comprehensive engagement.'' For six months cabinet members and legislators have streamed into Beijing to underline U.S. seriousness about human rights and evoke the bounteous trade and technology transfers that are possible if Beijing makes enough concessions. Christopher himself has met with Foreign Minister Qian Qichen five times in the last six months. Last week he brought along the under secretary of defense for policy to pass the message to the People's Liberation Army. But as Chinese leaders continue to recite their own mantra--that U.S. interests lie in staying out of China's internal affairs and renewing MFN--administration officials have begun to conclude that the U.S. message isn't getting through. The Beijing Leadership actually has reason to focus on internal politics just now. After encouraging Hong Kong-style entrepreneurship for 15 years, China's economic reformers have just begun the task of cutting loose the huge state enterprises that block the further expansion of Chinese capitalism. The reorganization threatens to throw millions of people out of work at a time when job-seeking peasants already are crowding coastal cities. In the circumstances. the seasoned, anti-Communist labor unionists who have begun reorganizing could mount the kind of challenge to the government that was beyond the reach of the students in Tiananmen Square five years ago. The new dissident movement has been taking shape for years. In 1991, 16 activists tried to form a secret organization, the Democratic Freedom Party. They were rounded up a year later, were charged with counter-revolutionary activity and are still awaiting trial and inevitable conviction. Their successors absorbed the lesson. Last November nine dissidents from Beijing and other major cities signed a "peace charter" that appealed for democratic reforms but also explicitly supported the Communist Party. This time authorities arrested the signatories in outlying cities but spared those in Beijing. Encouraged. dissidents began circulating public petitions earlier this month demanding the right to strike and to form independent unions. They claim that 38 separate dissident cells are gathering signatures across China--the largest collective act of opposition since the Tiananmen uprising. The dissidents were determined to keep their cool, and so were U.S. policymakers. Back in Washington. a senior White House official emphasized that renewing MFN was still an "open question" and that the Chinese still had time to show progress on human rights. "The tea leaves should not be read to imply that American policy has changed," said the senior official. "It has not." For all the turmoil in Beijing last week, the Clinton administration still gives China credit for steps in the right direction. Beijing has hosted a Red Cross delegation to discuss prison inspections, curtailed the export of certain products made by prison labor and released a few political inmates, including Tibetans--all items on Clinton's checklist. Christopher himself will doubtless continue to prod Beijing. >From a distance. [From Newsweek, March 21, 1994] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3. Colliding With China.................................The Economist 103 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEN Bill Clinton signed an executive order last year requiring "overall, significant progress" on human rights if China's most-favoured-nation (MFN) trading status was to be renewed this June, no one in the administration thought such progress would come easily. But nor did anyone expect significant backsliding--especially in the days leading up to the visit to China of the American Secretary of State, Warren Christopher, on March 11th. After months of trying to "engage" China politically and economically in order to avert the looming crisis over MFN, that crisis now looks virtually unavoidable. "I fear", says a State Department official, "that we are heading for a major-league train wreck." More than a dozen dissidents are known to have been detained, warned or sent off to the provinces by police in the past week. The country's most famous dissident, Wei Jingsheng, was detained by police for 30 hours, only to leave the capital for a secret destination on his release. It is unclear whether his departure was voluntary. Wang Dan, who led the Tiananmen student protests in 1989, was detained twice. The second time, having refused to leave town, he was warned that his criticisms of the government were against the law and that if they had an unfavourable impact on China he would "pay the price". He replied that he was quite prepared to go to prison in the cause of democracy. If this is leading up to a diplomatic disaster, the collision will be as much between elements of Mr. Clinton's foreign policy as between America and China. Since arriving in office, the president has consistently struck two--some would say only two--clear themes: that human rights would matter more to his foreign policy than they did to that of George Bush; and that trade would matter more than it had done to any of Mr. Clinton's predecessors. No issue reveals the tension between these two themes more clearly than MFN. Having criticised Mr. Bush for being too forgiving of China's human-rights abuses, Mr. Clinton now faces the unpalatable choice of either appearing similarly soft (and cynical to boot) or taking a step that Max Baucus, a Democratic senator, describes as "the trade equivalent of dropping a nuclear bomb". The fall-out would be severe. Revoking MFN would mean raising the average tariff on Chinese goods by five to ten times, a step that a World Bank study suggests would slash Chinese exports to America (which make up 11% of total Chinese exports) by somewhere between 42% and 96%. That China would retaliate, taking a similarly nasty bite out of the $9 billion-worth of goods that America exports to China (accounting for at least 200,000 American jobs), is all but certain. Whether or not China were then to regain MFN status in 1996, trade relations between the two countries would take a long time to stabilise. There would also be political consequences: damage to the co-operative efforts to contain nuclear proliferation in North Korea; embarrassment to pro-American factions in China. Which is why all sides in Washington are hoping desperately that the threat need not be carried out. Indeed, the administration argues privately that it has gone out of its way to avoid the crash. Both Lloyd Bentsen, the treasury secretary, and Robert Kubin, one of Mr. Clinton's economic advisers, have hinted that, if China meets the president's conditions this time, the administration might give up using MFN as a stick on human rights. And before Mr. Christopher arrived in Beijing, the State Department's top human-rights officer, John Shattuck, spent four days advising Chinese officials on ways to meet the American criteria for "significant, overall progress" and urging them at least to declare intentions that might be plausibly interpreted as progress. Instead, even as Mr. Shattuck spoke, Mr. Wei was being arrested. Observers offer various theories to explain China's baffling actions. Some detect signs of a struggle between hard-liners and moderates within the Communist Party. Cock-up theorists think there was a failure of communication between the Chinese government and the security forces. Others suggest that China's emotional reaction to American pressure is dictated by its ancient loathing of being pushed around by foreigners. There was a whiff of that in a speech by China's prime minister, Li Peng, to parliament on March l0th. Mr. Li said that China would "never allow anyone to interfere in its internal affairs under any pretext." It would, however, discuss human rights with other countries "on the basis of mutual equality." Domestic developments may be determining China's actions. Recent speeches by some of its leaders point to a growing concern about the potential for instability. In Geneva last week, Wang Guangya, one of China's delegates to the United Nations, argued that if Beijing eased up on dissent everyone would be sorry. "A tumultuous China would not only mean disaster to the Chinese people," he said, "but would also have grave repercussions for Asia's stability, as well as the whole world." The preferred interpretation in Washington, however, seems to be that, hearing two messages from the administration--that it wants trade with China and that it also wants human rights--the commercially-minded Chinese are simply taking the trade message seriously, while disregarding the one on human rights. If so, say people in Washington, they are making a mistake. Mr. Clinton would like nothing better than to have a reason to renew MFN. But reason there will have to be. Masters of the last-minute compromise, the Chinese leadership may release a few dissidents during or after Mr. Christopher's visit. But the gods of American democracy are angry, and may not be so easily placated. [From: The Economist, March 12, 1994] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4. The China Syndrome................................................ .....Susan V. Lawrence, Louise Lief, Jim Impoco And Jennifer Seter 150 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- A tussle over trade and human rights could start a Sino-American meltdown no one wants. When U.S. Secretary of State Warren Christopher landed in Beijing last week to discuss human rights and trade, the atmosphere could hardly have been worse. During the preceding week the Chinese detained, released and sometimes redetained more than a dozen Chinese dissidents, despite loud condemnations from President Clinton and Christopher and warnings that the crackdown might prompt Christopher to cancel his visit. As theca week progressed and the roundup persisted, Christopher's anger grew. He warned that Beijing was in danger of losing its most-favored-nation trading status--which could cost China 1 million jobs and 38 percent of its export market. "If theca Chines were trying to make US look stupid, they did a great job,'' says a senior U.S. trade official. The tension is likely to grow. By June. the Clinton administration must decide whether to renew China's MFN trading status, a decision that puts at risk billions of dollars in trade, millions of jobs in both countries and Washington's attempt to mend fences with China. Since 1989, when Chines troops brutally suppressed the Tiananmen Square democracy movement, two successive American administrations have linked China's trade status to its human-rights performance. And, according to theca terms of an executive order Clinton signed last May, theca United States can renew China's MFN status only if it determines Beijing has made "significant, overall progress" toward improving its human-rights record. The Clinton administration would dearly love to renew MFN for China. The administration was hoping the Chines would cooperate enough to unhitch human rights and trade issues and disentangle the lucrative $40 billion U.S.- Chinese trade relationship from China's treatment of its dissidents, prisoners and Tibetan monks and nuns. Instead, theca administration last week found itself in a game of diplomatic chicken with Beijing, with China's Communist leadership all but daring the American to cancel MFN and the United States insisting it was prepared to do just that. "It's possible they still don't believe we're willing to jump over the cliff," says a senior U.S. official traveling with Christopher. "Well, we are." BIG BUCKS. The stakes are enormous. If the United States cancels China's trade privileges, Beijing has threatened to retaliate against American businesses in China. More than 550 U.S. companies now have offices in the country, and U.S. firms invested some $3 billion last year alone. The U.S.-China Business Council estimates that the market in China for telecommunications equipment in the next five years will be worth $30 billion, while the market for auto parts in the next three years will be $29 billion. Canceling MFN also could undermine the administration's policy of "comprehensive engagement" with China, which was designed to halt the downward spiral of relations between the two countries and broaden their agenda beyond human rights to issues such as regional security, defense cooperation and arms proliferation. Treasury Secretary Lloyd Bentsen traveled to China to talk about finance, Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy sought access for American farmers to China's 1.2 billion consumers and theca Pentagon began drawing up proposals for joint peacekeeping, disaster relief and defense conversion programs. But as more and more dissidents were rounded up last week, Christopher warned that "the way things are moving now, it may not be possible to broaden these relationships." The Americans have been baffled by China's behavior. Christopher arrived during the annual meeting of China's rubber-stamp parliament, the National People's Congress, a time when security forces traditionally gather up dissidents and ship them out of the capital. But the current crackdown is more than the annual roundup of nonconformists. U.S. officials think China is sending a clear signal that it cannot be forced into human-rights concessions. TURNING SOUR. The country's stunning double-digit economic growth has created sources of potentially serious instability and the Chinese leadership is feeling vulnerable. In recent months there has been panic buying in many provinces, a situation that for many Chinese officials is uncomfortably reminiscent of the hoarding that preceded the Tiananmen demonstrations of 1989. International economists worry that an explosion of potentially unsound state-sector investments in office and housing blocks and development zones could turn sour in the next couple of years, sending a huge shock through the Chinese economy. Five years after the Tiananmen Square eruption, China's aging leaders may be growing nervous again. Although it is still small, scattered and fractious, China's dissident movement is growing more potent. Wei Jingsheng, a former electrician who was imprisoned for 15 years for leading the 1978 Democracy Wall movement, emerged unrepentant from prison six months ago and began to organize his fellow dissidents into an effective political force. Other dissidents, who call him "Older Brother Wei," credit him with building bridges among them. Last week, Wei was detained, then sent out of town. Wei is one of a new breed of dissidents who have gained respect because they have survived long prison sentences and remain defiant, despite the state's best efforts to break their spirit. Another is Wang Dan, a Tiananmen student leader who was released on parole a year ago as part of China's campaign to win MFN renewal last year. Last week, he was detained, released and then hauled in again for questioning. Still, he issued a public statement calling on the Chinese government to respect human rights. Both Wei and Wang now derive a measure of protection from their fame abroad, a situation that some Chinese leaders find deeply frustrating. Even jailed Tiananmen Square student leader Liu Gang, an inmate in northeast China's Lingyuan prison labor camp for the past five years, may be using his notoriety abroad to defy his jailers. A prison official complains that he could not force Liu to "acknowledge his guilt," usually the first thing a labor camp internee is required to do, because Liu said his foreign supporters would think less of him if he did. U.S. officials think high-level maneuvering among factions of the Chinese leadership also may be affecting Beijing's behavior. While Chinese leaders may support mollifying the Americans somewhat, U.S. officials think at least some hard-liners feel that guarding against loss of political control is more important than keeping MFN status. Christopher has emerged as one of the administration's most vocal critics of China's human-rights policy. But his tough message has been undermined by other U.S. officials. Nine days before Christopher's arrival, Under Secretary of Commerce Jeffrey Garten was in Beijing to help U.S. businesses lobby for $6 billion worth of Chinese government business, including power generation, telecommunications and transportation projects. Saying U.S. business has "huge stakes" in China, he outlined a new export strategy that targets China as the largest emerging market for U.S. goods. CARROTS AND STICKS. "The whole notion of the MFN cycle is Russian roulette," argues Jerry Jasinowski, president of the National Association of Manufacturers. "We'll wind up isolating the United States, not China." Thomas Denomme, a Chrysler Corp. executive vice president says that while the Clinton administration is hammering China for human rights abuses, German Chancellor Helmut Kohl is lobbying for Mercedes-Benz to build a $1 billion minivan plant in China. Chrysler is the other candidate for the facility, which Denomme says could lead to $500 million in U.S. exports annually. Washington's threat to cancel China's MFN status also worries other Asian and Pacific countries. "Denial of MFN would have an adverse impact on the region as a whole," Australian Foreign Minister Gareth Evans warned Christopher in Canberra, "particularly Hong Kong." He said revoking China's MFN status would reduce Hong Kong's exports by 30 percent, lead to widespread unemployment and hurt economic growth. Li Lu, a prominent Chinese dissident spokesman who now lives in New York fears Beijing is betting that the United States will not revoke MFN. "From Beijing's perspective," he says, "they think they will put the U.S. administration in an awkward position and embarrass them, because they think the U.S. will have to renew MFN. It's like a game . . . a Chinese version of chess." But the stakes are high, and both sides are fast running out of maneuvering room. [From US News and World Report, March 21, 1994] +=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=++ + Executive Editor: Changqing Yang Executive Moderator: Huang Tang + +--------------------------------------------------------------------------+ + For subscription: mail "SUB CHINA-NT Your-First-Name Your-Last-Name" + + to LISTSERV@UGA (bitnet) or listserv@uga.cc.uga.edu (internet) + + For back issues of CCF: + + anonymous ftp to cnd.org[132.249.229.100]:pub/community/CCF + + For contribution and inquiry: mail to ccf-editor@ifcss.org + +=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=++