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From: "Gray Zhu, 800-289-2498, 212-279-6700" <grayzhu@panix.com>
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Subject: Chinese Stock Market up 30%
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==================    IC940802: Investment Club  ======================

1. Chinese Stock Markets Bounce Back, Rising 30% ............. NY times
_______________________________________________________________________
   (be sure to read the Disclaimer in the end if you have not read)

1. Chinese Stock Markets Bounce Back, Rising 30%

According to NY Times ...

Chinese stock price surged more than 30 percent yesterday after the
Government's announcement late last week that it had halted the
listing of new stock issures.  Shanghai up 36%, Shenzhen up 34%. Both
markets had fallen by more than 70% from their high last year.

The picture shows police presented to hold back crowds of potential
buyers.

==========================================================================
                           Disclaimers:

 a) Material on ICnet  is for general information only, and made available
    to  voluntary  subscribers  (subscription  is  free).    There  is  no
    guarantee of  accuracy in either text or numbers, so please read  with
    your own discretion.  Opinion expressed by any author is  his own, not
    necessarily  his  employer's.  Nobody on  the icnet-l or related (Hong
    Guang, Gray Zhu or their employers, or any other members, or ifcss.org
    which is the  ftp provider) except yourself assumes any responsibility
    for any consequences of using the material.

 b) You are free to forward and copy the material  for private use. If you
    do forward, it is mandatory to let it ALWAYS GO  WITH DISCLAIMER.  Use 
    of the material for commercial  purpose without written consent of the 
    author is prohibited.

 c) Any past performance examples should  not be considered a guarantee of
    future   results.    Any  company mentioned   does    not constitute a
    recommendation by anybody.

==========================================================================
For specific recommendations and info on IC-VIP, contact grayzhu@panix.com 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
                  ICnet - Investment Club on network
__________________________________________________________________________
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__________________________________________________________________________
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~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

From icnet-l@ifcss.org Wed Aug  3 22:54:10 1994
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From: "Gray Zhu, 800-289-2498, 212-279-6700" <grayzhu@panix.com>
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Subject: IC940803: Underwriting, Historical data, WCII
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==================    IC940803: Investment Club  ======================

1. What are "underwrite" and "over-allotment" .......... Gray Zhu
2. WinStar, historical data  ........................... Gray Zhu
_______________________________________________________________________
   (be sure to read the Disclaimer in the end if you have not read)

1. What are "underwrite" and "over-allotment" .......... Gray Zhu

> From: Steve_Jin.XKeys@xerox.com
> Can you explain to me what is "underwrite" and "over-allotment" to me?

If the company (issuer of the stock) is the author of a book, the
underwriter is the publisher and distributor of the book. underwrite
is the process of underwriting. Typically, underwriter(s) is a
investment banking firm (brokerage firm). The first time stock
offering is called Initial Public Offering (IPO).

Underwriter could be more than one firms. They assign each selling how
many shares of the stock, Over-allotment happens when one or more of
the underwriting group (Syndicate) members sold more than they are
assigned to. How come? before the IPO comes, the brokers receive
indication of purchases from customer without actually selling, There
could be more shares wanted by customers than they have.

Over allotment can be solved by issuing more shares, or adjusted
within the selling group.

==================================================================
2. WinStar, historical data  ............................ Gray Zhu

>From jsun@cs.uiuc.edu  Wed Aug  3 13:52:59 1994
>Subject: WinStar ...

>>1. WCII - A wireless communication company
>>
>>I have just got some information about WinStar Communications,
>>Inc. The Symbol is WCII, I have roughly looked through some. Probably
>>some of you are interested in following it.

>Is this WinStar focusing on wireless communication for telephone lines?
>I heard about a company is beginning to do this business.  And
>from technical point of view, that technoloy could save phone
>company millions of dollars over the current technology.  

>I have a question.  If I am interested in a stock, how would I be able
>to get the history data of that stock?

Exactly, winstar is focusing on wireless comm. it is a new low cost
long-distance carrier.

There are plenty of places to find historical data, such as PRODIGY,
telescan 2000, stock data corp. (relatively cheap if you want many
stocks), Free financial network (FFN), quote.com, etc..., mostly you
have to pay.

There is a free place to annonymous ftp:
ftp.ai.mit.edu:/pub/stocks/results/ 
there are hundreds of stocks there, but the one you want may not be
there.  you can also chart the stocks if you use WWW (Mosaic). And
there are a few other places also, but there is no free, complete
stock data. read usenet misc.invest... faq for details

I do have a friend who has about 3-year 8000 historical stocks and
futures data, which could be offered for sale in the future - if there
is enough interests, and it is going to be cheap. In addition, he has
a package of real-time stock screening C and FORTRAN code. My friend
does fulltime trading past a few years successfully, he runs his
programs everynight to find good technical buys.

==========================================================================
                           Disclaimers:

 a) Material on ICnet  is for general information only, and made available
    to  voluntary  subscribers  (subscription  is  free).    There  is  no
    guarantee of  accuracy in either text or numbers, so please read  with
    your own discretion.  Opinion expressed by any author is  his own, not
    necessarily  his  employer's.  Nobody on  the icnet-l or related (Hong
    Guang, Gray Zhu or their employers, or any other members, or ifcss.org
    which is the  ftp provider) except yourself assumes any responsibility
    for any consequences of using the material.

 b) You are free to forward and copy the material  for private use. If you
    do forward, it is mandatory to let it ALWAYS GO  WITH DISCLAIMER.  Use 
    of the material for commercial  purpose without written consent of the 
    author is prohibited.

 c) Any past performance examples should  not be considered a guarantee of
    future   results.    Any  company mentioned   does    not constitute a
    recommendation by anybody.

==========================================================================
For specific recommendations and info on IC-VIP, contact grayzhu@panix.com 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
                  ICnet - Investment Club on network
__________________________________________________________________________
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                  Gray Zhu, grayzhu@panix.com (800)-289-2498
__________________________________________________________________________
     ALL INVESTMENTS INVOLVE RISK, STUDY CAREFULLY BEFORE INVESTING.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

From icnet-l@ifcss.org Sun Aug  7 23:23:42 1994
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From: "Gray Zhu, 800-289-2498, 212-279-6700" <grayzhu@panix.com>
To: Multiple recipients of list <icnet-l@ifcss.org>
Subject: IC940808: Discussion - Jianping Zheng
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==================    IC940608: Investment Club  ======================

1. Discussion .......................................... Jianping Zheng
_______________________________________________________________________
   (be sure to read the Disclaimer in the end if you have not read)

1. Discussion .......................................... Jianping Zheng

>From: Jianping.Zheng@comlab.oxford.ac.uk
>Subject: Discussion


A few comments after reading recent ICnet.

"Underwriter"
~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I'd like to extend Gray's explanation a bit.

An underwriter is the person who purchases a whole lot of shares from the 
company who issues the shares, and then sale these shares to the public or
institutions. In this way, the company can get the necessary money quickly
and start business.

The underwriter is paid commision for doing that, usually. He will also 
undertake the risk that sometimes the public may not be interested enough
for the new issue and he ends up with loads of unsold paper stock or have 
to sale them at a lower price, therefore suffer a loss.

For safety  the underwriters usually try to persuade the companies to sale
them shares at a reasonable price, and guarantee a certain amount of 
over-application from the public. Even though, the competition between them
is great, the company would like to be sold at as high a price as possible,
and they may misjudge the circumstance, and eventually there will be some
winners and some losers all the time.

I wonder whether "over-allotment" is the so-called "over-subscription" in
UK. In this case, normally the application will be scaled down, unless
it has already being stated that the company can issue more shares. This 
is necessary to protect those who applied. If the share is heavily 
oversbuscibed many investors will have to buy them from the market and
the price jumps.

The hunting of winners is therefore a very interesting part in IPOs.

Trader and Investor
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

It is interesting to hear the discussion about trader and investor styles.

Ultimately, there is only one way to classify people playing in the Stock 
Exchanges, those of winners and those of losers.

If you know that shares of a good company is going down in the next few
days, will you still by it NOW because you are the so called (long-term)
INVESTOR? 

Those of "traders" have developed some ways to spot the period that markets 
is at greater risks. There is certainly no reason not to fully exploit them.

There were enough great companies went numb or bankrupt over centuries. 
Long term investors will may have a good chance to hit these lucks. How
about those new growing companies, I can assure you that the directors 
and employees get far better payment than you shareholders. The market
is a risk place, it would be silly to stay there in every storm because
you are an investor.

Being flexible might be the first criterion to success.

Markets
~~~~~~~

The markets might have a very narrow window to trade something. You may
spot Hong Knong market and UK market, which were always under the mercy
of US investors, have turned quite smartly recently.

Which does mean that if you are doing you homework incessantly and properly, 
you might snap a few of chance and take some decent  profits. (Well, judge
youself, I knows UK better).

Still, mind the uncertainties ahead. The collapse of bond will continue 
to be a fuss.

Good luck.


Jianping from Oxford

==========================================================================
                           Disclaimers:

 a) Material on ICnet  is for general information only, and made available
    to  voluntary  subscribers  (subscription  is  free).    There  is  no
    guarantee of  accuracy in either text or numbers, so please read  with
    your own discretion.  Opinion expressed by any author is  his own, not
    necessarily  his  employer's.  Nobody on  the icnet-l or related (Hong
    Guang, Gray Zhu or their employers, or any other members, or ifcss.org
    which is the  ftp provider) except yourself assumes any responsibility
    for any consequences of using the material.

 b) You are free to forward and copy the material  for private use. If you
    do forward, it is mandatory to let it ALWAYS GO  WITH DISCLAIMER.  Use 
    of the material for commercial  purpose without written consent of the 
    author is prohibited.

 c) Any past performance examples should  not be considered a guarantee of
    future   results.    Any  company mentioned   does    not constitute a
    recommendation by anybody.

==========================================================================
For specific recommendations and info on IC-VIP, contact grayzhu@panix.com 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
                  ICnet - Investment Club on network
__________________________________________________________________________
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                  SUB ICNET-L Firstname Lastname or: SIGNOFF ICNET-L
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                  Gray Zhu, grayzhu@panix.com (800)-289-2498
__________________________________________________________________________
     ALL INVESTMENTS INVOLVE RISK, STUDY CAREFULLY BEFORE INVESTING.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

From icnet-l@ifcss.org Tue Aug  9 22:42:28 1994
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Subject: IC940809: Start Investing, etc
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==================    IC940809: Investment Club  ======================

1. Invest $20000 once or month by month? ............... Gray Zhu
2. Where to find company name with a ticker symbol? .... ????????
3. What are two magazines you recommend? ............... Gray Zhu
_______________________________________________________________________
   (be sure to read the Disclaimer in the end if you have not read)

===================================================================
1. Invest $20000 once, or month by month? ........... Gray Zhu

> From ***@hut4.pha.jhu.edu

>I am glad to see the ICNET in the ifcss.org. I put money in the bank and
>never think about the investment. I got very useful information from your
>message.  If I keep puting my money in the bank, it is losing money in some
>sense. So I want to start to invest the money in the market.  Can you tell
>me how to start the investment? For example, if I want to put $20000.00 at
>one time, or if I want to put some amount of money month by month, which way
>is better?

Glad to hear that you realized the benefit of investing. I suggest most
people start with mutual funds, because mutual funds are baskets of stocks,
one broken egg in a basket does hurt much. As a matter of fact, most of my
100 customers started with mutual funds. Once you get a sense about the
market and can accept the kind of volatility of stocks, you then can
consider buying some stocks. Stocks move faster than mutual funds, some move
upwards, some downwards, they cancel out some in a mutual fund, that is why
mutual funds move much slower. Nevertheless, the market - biggest "mutual
fund" of over 10000 stocks, moved average 12% a year over past 30 years, far
better than the savings. Normal mutual funds contain 20 to 100s of stocks,
which is a smaller sample of the market, you get more or less the market
average, depending on the investment objectives and the manager's skills.

Also, one should diversify his investments. Balance his mutual funds and
stocks among differen industries, difference countries, even different
qualities, and some in stocks, some in bonds as well.

As for the amount is concerned, I cannot give a definite answer. If you have
only $20000 and nothing else, I would not suggest you invest more than
$16000 in the market. If you have $1 million cash, I would say $100,000
investment in one stock is not much. Let's assume you have a networth of
$100,000 and the $20000 is liquid, and you have $3000/monthly disposable
income -extra money, I would suggest you put the $10000 into 1 or 2 mutual
funds initially, and add the $10000 in other times. Also invest your
disposable income monthly. This market currently is volatile (in my
opinion), the dollar-cost-averaging could be perfectly used.

====================================================================
2. Where to find company name with a ticker symbol? .... ????????

> From: ***@milly.usc.edu

>Gray, I'd like to subscibe IC-VIP. I decide to get my feet wet into
>stock. Could you also send me John Hancock information. By the way, my
>friend asks me whether there is book to look up for these company
>abbreviations like IBM stands for International Bussiness Matchine. I don't
>have the answer. I know it doesn't do any good to get to know company full
>name, but just for the sake of curiosity, could you kindly give the answer.

Gray: I know S&P stock guide, probably available in book stores. Anybody
knows a computer source? Please. One easy way is call me up, I check for you
from my computer - office computer receiving datafeed, not download-able.

It is important to know the name of the company though. If you make a
mistake, it could cost you money, for example, you might think General
Instrument's symbol is GI (actually GIC), and you wanted to buy General
Instrument, and you tell the broker "buy GI 500 shares for me", and you may
wind up buying GI, which is another company.

=================================================================
3. What are two magazines you recommend? ............... Gray Zhu

>From: ZHU HAI WEI <zhu@spot.Colorado.EDU>
>Subject: Magazine

>Which one or two magazine(s) you would recommend for ordinary investors, and
>why.

1. MONEY: comprehensive. Most investors read.

2. Business Week: gives outlook of everything, and a lot of investment
   issues. There are company ranking and mutual fund rankings, etc. 

==========================================================================
                           Disclaimers:

 a) Material on ICnet  is for general information only, and made available
    to  voluntary  subscribers  (subscription  is  free).    There  is  no
    guarantee of  accuracy in either text or numbers, so please read  with
    your own discretion.  Opinion expressed by any author is  his own, not
    necessarily  his  employer's.  Nobody on  the icnet-l or related (Hong
    Guang, Gray Zhu or their employers, or any other members, or ifcss.org
    which is the  ftp provider) except yourself assumes any responsibility
    for any consequences of using the material.

 b) You are free to forward and copy the material  for private use. If you
    do forward, it is mandatory to let it ALWAYS GO  WITH DISCLAIMER.  Use 
    of the material for commercial  purpose without written consent of the 
    author is prohibited.

 c) Any past performance examples should  not be considered a guarantee of
    future   results.    Any  company mentioned   does    not constitute a
    recommendation by anybody.

==========================================================================
For specific recommendations and info on IC-VIP, contact grayzhu@panix.com 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
                  ICnet - Investment Club on network
__________________________________________________________________________
  SUB/SIGNOFF to: LISTSERV@IFCSS.ORG, with mailbody as:
                  SUB ICNET-L Firstname Lastname or: SIGNOFF ICNET-L
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  Managers:       Guang Hong, HONG@opus.mco.edu
                  Gray Zhu, grayzhu@panix.com (800)-289-2498
__________________________________________________________________________
     ALL INVESTMENTS INVOLVE RISK, STUDY CAREFULLY BEFORE INVESTING.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

From icnet-l@ifcss.org Sun Aug 14 14:34:56 1994
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Subject: IC940815: Surprise: Mutual Fund investors are still Upbeat
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==================    IC940815: Investment Club  ======================

News on Business Week
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
1. Briefs
2. Surprise! Mutual Fund Investors are still upbeat
_______________________________________________________________________
   (be sure to read the Disclaimer in the end if you have not read)

1. Briefs

* Engines that run on water? An inventor has patented a fuel that's
half gasoline, half H2O. the mixture gets better mileage from the
gasoline it contains and emits significantly less pullution. In
Reno(NV), city bus began use the fuel on Oct. 5, 1993, found a 29%
miles increase in mileage. - Could be big to oil and auto industry.

* Bulls on the runway start to bellow. - Airline industry starts to
turnaround.

* Airwave auctions work, not all auctions do. After decades of handing
out virtually free licenses for the nation's airwaves, the federal
government has wised up and started charging. The recent auctions of
licenses for paging and interactive television raised an unexpected
$833 million, and an auction for personal communications services
could net over $10 billion.

2. Surprise! Mutual Fund Investors are still upbeat

Mutual-fund investors seem to be shrugging off the market's ominous
atmospherics. Fully 94% say they are somewhat or very confident that
their investments are safe, and only 24% say they plan to shrink their
holdings. They are a pretty savvy lot, too. For the most part, they
know that investing comes with risks, and they don't expect the
government or anyone else to make up losses. But investors may feel
less sangune after a peek at their next quarterly statements: 65%
think they've makd money in mutual funds so far this year - and the
way things have been going, most of them are probably wrong.

the following is part of the Business Week/Harris Poll

FAITH IN MUTUALS: how confident are you that your investments in
mutual funds are reasonably safe?

very confident		35%
somewhat confident	59%
not very confident 	 5%
not at all confident	 1%
not sure 		 0%

PAST ACTIONS: Have you switched from one fund to another to taken
money out of a fund at any time over the last six months because of
you were concerned about the safety of your money?

yes		10%
no		90%
not sure	 0%

CHANCES OF A CRASH: Over the next 12 months, how would you rate the
chance of another big crash in the stock market:

very likely		 6%
somewhat likely 	34%
not very likely		48%
not likely at all	 9%
not sure		 3%


SKETCHY KNOWLEDGE: How good an idea do you think you have of what kind
of securities your mutual fund can invest in?

A good idea 		25%
a fair idea 		49%
no idea at all		25%
not sure		 1%

==========================================================================
                           Disclaimers:

 a) Material on ICnet  is for general information only, and made available
    to  voluntary  subscribers  (subscription  is  free).    There  is  no
    guarantee of  accuracy in either text or numbers, so please read  with
    your own discretion.  Opinion expressed by any author is  his own, not
    necessarily  his  employer's.  Nobody on  the icnet-l or related (Hong
    Guang, Gray Zhu or their employers, or any other members, or ifcss.org
    which is the  ftp provider) except yourself assumes any responsibility
    for any consequences of using the material.

 b) You are free to forward and copy the material  for private use. If you
    do forward, it is mandatory to let it ALWAYS GO  WITH DISCLAIMER.  Use 
    of the material for commercial  purpose without written consent of the 
    author is prohibited.

 c) Any past performance examples should  not be considered a guarantee of
    future   results.    Any  company mentioned   does    not constitute a
    recommendation by anybody.

==========================================================================
For specific recommendations and info on IC-VIP, contact grayzhu@panix.com 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
                  ICnet - Investment Club on network
__________________________________________________________________________
  SUB/SIGNOFF to: LISTSERV@IFCSS.ORG, with mailbody as:
                  SUB ICNET-L Firstname Lastname or: SIGNOFF ICNET-L
  Post mail to:   ICNET-L@IFCSS.ORG
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  Gopher:         /org/icnet on ifcss.org, /ifcss/org/icnet on cnd.org
  Managers:       Guang Hong, HONG@opus.mco.edu
                  Gray Zhu, grayzhu@panix.com (800)-289-2498
__________________________________________________________________________
     ALL INVESTMENTS INVOLVE RISK, STUDY CAREFULLY BEFORE INVESTING.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

From icnet-l@ifcss.org Sun Aug 21 01:20:35 1994
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Subject: IC940821: The Market is Making a Quiet Comeback
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==================    IC940821: Investment Club  ======================

1. The market is making a quiet comeback ..................... Gray Zhu
2. Two cents about mutual fund investment .................... Gray Zhu
_______________________________________________________________________
   (be sure to read the Disclaimer in the end if you have not read)

1. The market is making a quiet comeback

In the past two or three weeks, the market has made a quiet come back.
The S&P 500 index, Dow Jones and NYSE composite index have just
emerged above or touched the 200-day moving average, giving technical
bullish sign.

The NASDAQ market has gained about 3%, half of the loss in Feb. and
March is back. Some mutual funds gained more than 1% a day. Leading
the way are technology stocks. Big money has been shifting from
CYCLICAL to GROWTH stocks.

Now the Fed has raised the rate by another 0.5%, so what? The market
gained 22 points. You expected a big market drop?

For those of you who are waiting for market to turnaround, did the
market tell you it was ready to gained 3%? How much is a "turnaround"
according to your standard?

When the market is at high, it is possible it is going higher.
When the market is at low,  it is possible it is going higher.
When the market is at high, it is possible it is going lower.
When the market is at low,  it is possible it is going lower.

=> In the two bit memory, you can put 00, 01, 10, or 11.

One perfect illustration: assume you invested $5000/year from 1980 to
1989. the worst you could do is invested the $5000 at each year's
market high, the best you could do is invested at each year's market
low. The componded total amount are $11000 and $14000
respectively. However, you can never get all the highs and lows every
year, you will be getting between $110000 and $140000 for your total
of $50000 investment.  THE BEST TIME TO INVEST IS WHEN THE MARKET IS
OPEN.

If you are sure the market is bearish, you should sell short or tell
us sell short.

2. Two cents about mutual fund investments

a) I think this fund is at high, I will waiting for it to go down.

When the fund is at high, it is possible it is going higher.
When the fund is at low,  it is possible it is going higher.
When the fund is at high, it is possible it is going lower.
When the fund is at low,  it is possible it is going lower.

When do you invest, high or low?

b) My fund is down a lot, should I move to another

Most important is identify the problem: the market or the fund. If you
fund was performing well in the past, and outperforming the similar
funds, it is down probably due to the market - hold. If it had never
been better than the funds in the same catagory, then it is the fund
manager's problem - switch to another or liquidate.

c) It looks I can make about $50 a month switch among mutual funds
with $1000, which do you think is the better one?

In my opinion, devote a lot of energy, switching among mutual fund is
foolish. It doesn't work the way you think, if you can consistently
you make 5% a month, I will let you invest for me, or you can set up a
mutual fund of mutual funds.  With the energy you spent there, you can
make $50 anywhere. If you like to trade frequently and do well, you
can probably make more money trading futures.

==========================================================================
                           Disclaimers:

 a) Material on ICnet  is for general information only, and made available
    to  voluntary  subscribers  (subscription  is  free).    There  is  no
    guarantee of  accuracy in either text or numbers, so please read  with
    your own discretion.  Opinion expressed by any author is  his own, not
    necessarily  his  employer's.  Nobody on  the icnet-l or related (Hong
    Guang, Gray Zhu or their employers, or any other members, or ifcss.org
    which is the  ftp provider) except yourself assumes any responsibility
    for any consequences of using the material.

 b) You are free to forward and copy the material  for private use. If you
    do forward, it is mandatory to let it ALWAYS GO  WITH DISCLAIMER.  Use 
    of the material for commercial  purpose without written consent of the 
    author is prohibited.

 c) Any past performance examples should  not be considered a guarantee of
    future   results.    Any  company mentioned   does    not constitute a
    recommendation by anybody.

==========================================================================
For specific recommendations and info on IC-VIP, contact grayzhu@panix.com 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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__________________________________________________________________________
     ALL INVESTMENTS INVOLVE RISK, STUDY CAREFULLY BEFORE INVESTING.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

From icnet-l@ifcss.org Tue Aug 23 22:38:18 1994
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Subject: IC940823: SPY, BEAR, LOW, tax, ... etc.
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==================    IC940823: Investment Club  ======================

0. News: Market Rally .................................. Gray Zhu
1. About switch among mutual funds ..................... Fuhua Ling
2. Jokes: BEAR, LOW .................................... Gray Zhu
3. Who is SPY? ......................................... Gray Zhu
4. Tax for investments ................................. Gray Zhu
_______________________________________________________________________
   (be sure to read the Disclaimer in the end if you have not read)
=====================================================================
0. News: Market Rally 

The market made a rally today due to the Japanese Government's
intervene of the Dollar-Yen exchange. The Japanese bought 7 billion
dollars which is about one month's trade deficit of the U.S. to boost
the week dollar, and so, to boost the Japanese export. When the dollar
is weak, cars made in Japan (paid cost in Yen) is going to sell higher
price in the U.S. Thus less competitive.

=====================================================================
1. About switch among mutual funds

>From: FLING@VAXC.STEVENS-TECH.EDU
>Subject: Re: IC940821: The Market is Making a Quiet Comeback

Dear Gray: 

Some brokers do fund switching as a way to get a higher return. They
use, e.g., the time lag between U.S. and Japan. If you hear that there
is a big drop of the Japanese stock market in the morning, buy it the
very same day.  And sell it in the opposite situation. Some of them
really do well. The point is, this is also a way to make money. Like
other ways, this way is also not guaranteed, but it is not nonnsense.

                                                        Fuhua Ling

Question: How does the time lag between U.S. and Japan help you make
quick money (you seem mean it) in mutual funds?  -Gray

=====================================================================
2. Jokes: BEAR, LOW

Why the Stock is called "BEAR"?  - Business Week.

Vermont Teddy Bear couldnt have picked a less auspicious stock symbol
than BEAR. After going public at $10 last Nov., the mail-order
marketer of pricey ursine cuddlies saw its stock zoom to $16 3/4. But
it has been, er, a bear market ever since. Shares hit $5 1/4 last week
after the company posted a $78,000 second-quarter loss. What has gone
wrong? Not a thing, says the company, which claims the loss was caused
by higher expenses as it moves into new markets and expands product
lines. But with profit just 2 cents a share in the first half, even
Barington Capital Group, the investment firm that brought Vermont
Teddy Bear public, says it may pull back from its projection of 25
cents a share for the year.

LOW is not low: 

There is another stock symbol LOW, but it is not really low,, has been
doing well -Gray.

====================================================================
3. Who is SPY?

SPY is a spy of the market, it is a stock-index "stock".

We know S&P 500 is a market index, which is a weighted average of
stock prices of 500 biggest companies, SPY is a special "stock", its
price does not change according to the law of "supply and demand", but
changes according to S&P 500. To be exact, it is price is the S&P 500
devided by 10, and around up to a 1/32 points.

SPY has unlimited liquidity - there is never a problem you cannot buy
or sell the stock, no matter how many shares. The spread between the
ask and bid price is very small, unlike the some small stock issues.

Many people buy SPY as a investment, and it is not a bad investment.
You are getting the market average return all the time, which is
average 12% over the past 30 year. And there is no tax (I heard of).

It behaves like a close-end mutual funds, i.e. transaction as a stock,
but perform like a mutual fund - slow moving. SPY has the volatility
of 1.0, the volitility of other mutual funds and stocks is normalized
according to this. 

Some mutual funds use S&P 500 options or SPY as a hedge. I mean
holding long position in the funds, and short (buy puts) SPY. You can
use S&P 500 hedge your own portforlio as well.

========================================================================
4. Tax?

>From: BCZHOU@ECUVM.CIS.ECU.EDU

>I have a question about tax.  As a student with F-1 visa, I do not pay
>tax on the interset from my saving account.  Is the money made from
>mutual fund also tax-free?  In addition, someone in my lab to me that
>people need to pay property tax on stock (that is investment on stock
>is treated as property), is that true?
>Qian Zhou,

Gray: 

a) Investment is not savings. Investment gain is added to gross income
   for tax purpose (normally, there are situations dont concern most of us), 
   including mutual funds and stocks, etc.

b) You pay tax when you sell and there is a gain. But for mutual funds, 
   you have to pay the tax the same year you received the dividend (income),
   no matter you reinvest or not.

   You can also deduct $3000 year for capital loss, if you lose more, can
   deduct the rest in latter years, but $3000 each year maximum. The
   deduction is from the gross income, not tax.

c) I dont know stock paying property tax. There may be a law in your state.

d) I am not a tax expert. Read the tax return form may be of help,
   consult a lawyer when necessary.


==========================================================================
                           Disclaimers:

 a) Material on ICnet  is for general information only, and made available
    to  voluntary  subscribers  (subscription  is  free).    There  is  no
    guarantee of  accuracy in either text or numbers, so please read  with
    your own discretion.  Opinion expressed by any author is  his own, not
    necessarily  his  employer's.  Nobody on  the icnet-l or related (Hong
    Guang, Gray Zhu or their employers, or any other members, or ifcss.org
    which is the  ftp provider) except yourself assumes any responsibility
    for any consequences of using the material.

 b) You are free to forward and copy the material  for private use. If you
    do forward, it is mandatory to let it ALWAYS GO  WITH DISCLAIMER.  Use 
    of the material for commercial  purpose without written consent of the 
    author is prohibited.

 c) Any past performance examples should  not be considered a guarantee of
    future   results.    Any  company mentioned   does    not constitute a
    recommendation by anybody.

==========================================================================
For specific recommendations and info on IC-VIP, contact grayzhu@panix.com 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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__________________________________________________________________________
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  Managers:       Guang Hong, HONG@opus.mco.edu
                  Gray Zhu, grayzhu@panix.com (800)-289-2498
__________________________________________________________________________
     ALL INVESTMENTS INVOLVE RISK, STUDY CAREFULLY BEFORE INVESTING.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

From icnet-l@ifcss.org Wed Aug 24 21:12:43 1994
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Subject: IC940824: Dow up 71 points - don't miss another time
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==================    IC940824: Investment Club  ======================

1. Dow up 71 points - Do not miss another best market day! ... Gray Zhu
_______________________________________________________________________
   (be sure to read the Disclaimer in the end if you have not read)


1. Dow up 71 points - Do not miss another best market day! ... Gray Zhu

Holly Shit! the Dow is up 70.9 points! that's 1.8%!

Remember I just said three days ago in "The market is making a quiet
   comeback":

   "In the past two or three weeks, the market has made a quiet come back.
   The S&P 500 index, Dow Jones and NYSE composite index have just
   emerged above or touched the 200-day moving average, giving technical
   bullish sign."

Remember I posted this before: from 1980 to 1989, there were about
   2500 trading days, if you count all 2500 days, the average return per
   year is 17.9%, if you miss 40 best days in the market, the annual
   return is only 3.9%.

YOU HAVE JUST MISSED ONE OF THE BEST DAYS IN THE MARKET! If you have
   been waiting for a so-called "turnaround". Nobody know when is a 
   turnaround.

If you do not want to miss another best day, and want some ideas, I
can certainly help, I have a bunch of stocks and funds to offer - join
IC-VIP by sending your phone number and address to grayzhu@panix.com,
no obligations. Or, give me a call at 800-289-2498 (always leave msg
if I am online). I have just got an emergence offer.

Everybody is encouraged to review the past issues in
ifcss.org:/org/icnet directory, especially new comers. There is some
good stuff there. such as the baby boomer.

-Gray.

==========================================================================
                           Disclaimers:

 a) Material on ICnet  is for general information only, and made available
    to  voluntary  subscribers  (subscription  is  free).    There  is  no
    guarantee of  accuracy in either text or numbers, so please read  with
    your own discretion.  Opinion expressed by any author is  his own, not
    necessarily  his  employer's.  Nobody on  the icnet-l or related (Hong
    Guang, Gray Zhu or their employers, or any other members, or ifcss.org
    which is the  ftp provider) except yourself assumes any responsibility
    for any consequences of using the material.

 b) You are free to forward and copy the material  for private use. If you
    do forward, it is mandatory to let it ALWAYS GO  WITH DISCLAIMER.  Use 
    of the material for commercial  purpose without written consent of the 
    author is prohibited.

 c) Any past performance examples should  not be considered a guarantee of
    future   results.    Any  company mentioned   does    not constitute a
    recommendation by anybody.

==========================================================================
For specific recommendations and info on IC-VIP, contact grayzhu@panix.com 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
                  ICnet - Investment Club on network
__________________________________________________________________________
  SUB/SIGNOFF to: LISTSERV@IFCSS.ORG, with mailbody as:
                  SUB ICNET-L Firstname Lastname or: SIGNOFF ICNET-L
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  Gopher:         /org/icnet on ifcss.org, /ifcss/org/icnet on cnd.org
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                  Gray Zhu, grayzhu@panix.com (800)-289-2498
__________________________________________________________________________
     ALL INVESTMENTS INVOLVE RISK, STUDY CAREFULLY BEFORE INVESTING.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

From icnet-l@ifcss.org Sun Aug 28 12:18:02 1994
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To: Multiple recipients of list <icnet-l@ifcss.org>
Subject: IC940828: Debate, Where the market is going? - Ken Gu
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==================    IC940828: Investment Club  ======================

1. Re: IC940827: Thoughts about Market ......................... Ken Gu
2. Another book ................................................ Ken Gu
_______________________________________________________________________
   (be sure to read the Disclaimer in the end if you have not read)

--------------------------------------

1. Re: IC940827: Thoughts about Market ......................... Ken Gu

From: qzgu@ux2.cso.uiuc.edu
Subject: Re: IC940827: Thoughts about Market - Jianping Zheng

> 
> At the time, things were still uncertain. The most obvious: people were 
> still haggling whether the Fed should or should NOT raise the rate again. 
> And perhaps more important, whether the market will react to such a move 
> or non-move. 
> 

Well, I don't think things are "certain" at any stage of the market.  One
thing is certain though: last week's rally is good for the market trend.
Also, if you knew that the analysts were mostly wrong in their views of
where the market was heading, you would have made a lot of money last week.
When interest rates go up, the market goes down.  But, it is also true, when
the Fed is done with interest hikes, the market goes up about 15% on average
in the next six months (I may be wrong in the time window).
If you decided to stay out because you were uncertain where the market was
heading, you would have missed a lot in the past two months.  Again, if
you are still uncertain where the market is heading, you will continue to
miss a lot of opportunities.

> However, the unexpected rate-hikes in Italy and Sweden did betray the market
> psyche. Rather than seeing a great turbulance, many markets stabilised 
> after the initial shock. What it told us? Well, the market is waiting 
> for something: some GOOD news (or excuses) to muscle a rally. Seeing that,
> the decision of riding over the storm would not be too difficult to make.
> 

Europe's economic recovery is ahead of expectations.  Unlike the US, the
unemployment rates are higher, thus keeping the inflation down.  Many expect
many European countries will follow the US by raising interest rates.  If
you agree, then stay out.  If you don't agree, buy on sell-off (like a week
ago).

> It is a bit funny to see how the coverage tried to relate the 50 points
> rate-hike with the market rally, and particularly, how badly the non-rate
> -hike (which would never happen afterwards) would damage. If we remember
> the days market used every excuses to drop, we should not be difficult 
> to see that the market will rise even without such a rate-hike. Poor
> economists, they should really resort to psychology books rather than 
> stick to their thick economic books.
> 

Again, if the economists could predict where the market is heading, they would
have quit their posts.  They would have made billions of dollars already.

> Don't Forger: The Bull has been Wounded
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I would said the bull has been recharged or refueled.

> 
> It will be unwise to think that the market will rocket regardless of the 
> recent deep scar. The Bull is already severely wounded. 

A particular stock may go up like rockets.  Some stock indices may as well
(like the Hengseng Indix or the Shanghai Stock Exchange).  But not the three
major indices in the US!

> 
> If the 70 points rise of Dow tells that the market is still a place to stay,
> the afterwards 50 points rise should be an alarm. A too rapid rally would 
> only bring, at the best, a subsequent prolonged period of consolidation.
> I would rather see a few months digestion at the current level rather than
> a sharp up-and-down, which will give us an ominous short-term double-top 
> pattern and an extremely difficult time.

Why a few months of digestion?  Are you saying we buy in a few months?
Why not next year or now?  You seemed to be "certain" in when the market
will go up higher.

> 
> When over-pessimism turns to over-optimism, it is probably the time to make
> an orderly retreat.

I agree when you are overly invested at this stage, you probably want to
lighten up.  I would not stay out completely.  I would lighten up on
cyclicals for example, but stay with some of the technology sectors.
Always keep some cash available when opportunities arise.  Read the
WS Journal daily and keep an eye on the healcare debate.  Some drug
and hospital supply stocks have made quite a come-back recently, but
it is not over-yet.  Also, look for stocks that have been slashed
badly, but are still fundamentally sound.  Furthermore, computer prices
are being cut drastically.  What does it mean for this sector, and
what will happen to the computer peripheral stocks (chips, keyboard,
computer screens, memory, HD, CD ROM drives, etc.)?  Lastly, but not the
least, the dollar is at all time low.  What does it mean for companies
doing bussiness with Japan, the European countries, and booming markets
in Asia?  

My advice is: spend less time worrying about interest rate hikes, but
instead, focus on fundamentals.  The US economy is robust.  The weakness
in dollar is helping its competitiveness in world economy.  Stay invested
and use any sell-off as buying opportunity.  Stock market is the place to
be in the 1990s!

> 2. Book, Interest rate and stock market
> 
> The first book I read was "Understanding Wall Street". I do not know
> much about other books, but this one is enough to start with.

This is a good one.  Another one I would like to recommend: "One up
on Wall Street", by Peter Lynch.

==========================================================================
                           Disclaimers:

 a) Material on ICnet  is for general information only, and made available
    to  voluntary  subscribers  (subscription  is  free).    There  is  no
    guarantee of  accuracy in either text or numbers, so please read  with
    your own discretion.  Opinion expressed by any author is  his own, not
    necessarily  his  employer's.  Nobody on  the icnet-l or related (Hong
    Guang, Gray Zhu or their employers, or any other members, or ifcss.org
    which is the  ftp provider) except yourself assumes any responsibility
    for any consequences of using the material.

 b) You are free to forward and copy the material  for private use. If you
    do forward, it is mandatory to let it ALWAYS GO  WITH DISCLAIMER.  Use 
    of the material for commercial  purpose without written consent of the 
    author is prohibited.

 c) Any past performance examples should  not be considered a guarantee of
    future   results.    Any  company mentioned   does    not constitute a
    recommendation by anybody.

==========================================================================
For specific recommendations and info on IC-VIP, contact grayzhu@panix.com 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
                  ICnet - Investment Club on network
__________________________________________________________________________
  SUB/SIGNOFF to: LISTSERV@IFCSS.ORG, with mailbody as:
                  SUB ICNET-L Firstname Lastname or: SIGNOFF ICNET-L
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  Gopher:         /org/icnet on ifcss.org, /ifcss/org/icnet on cnd.org
  Managers:       Guang Hong, HONG@opus.mco.edu
                  Gray Zhu, grayzhu@panix.com (800)-289-2498
__________________________________________________________________________
     ALL INVESTMENTS INVOLVE RISK, STUDY CAREFULLY BEFORE INVESTING.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

From icnet-l@ifcss.org Mon Aug 29 21:20:47 1994
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Subject: IC940830: Where the market is going - more debate
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==================    IC940830: Investment Club  ======================

1. Where the market is going - Debate continues ........ Jianping Zheng
2. Another starter book ................................ Charlie Li
_______________________________________________________________________
   (be sure to read the Disclaimer in the end if you have not read)

---------------------------------------------------------
1. Where the market is going - Debate continues ........ Jianping Zheng

>From Jianping.Zheng@comlab.oxford.ac.uk  Mon Aug 29 08:11:30 1994
> Re: Re: IC940827: Thoughts about Market (Ken Gu)

>> At the time, things were still uncertain. The most obvious: people were 
>> still haggling whether the Fed should or should NOT raise the rate again. 
>> And perhaps more important, whether the market will react to such a move 
>> or non-move. 
>> 

>Well, I don't think things are "certain" at any stage of the market.  One
>thing is certain though: last week's rally is good for the market trend.
>Also, if you knew that the analysts were mostly wrong in their views of
>where the market was heading, you would have made a lot of money last week.
>When interest rates go up, the market goes down.  But, it is also true, when
>the Fed is done with interest hikes, the market goes up about 15% on average
>in the next six months (I may be wrong in the time window).
>If you decided to stay out because you were uncertain where the market was
>heading, you would have missed a lot in the past two months.  Again, if
>you are still uncertain where the market is heading, you will continue to
>miss a lot of opportunities.

Well, mine is plain English: things were UNCERTAIN when I made my judgement,
and they were CERTAIN when I wrote the above.

I do agree that market has  uncertainty all the time. But it would be very
unwise to believe that the chances of UP and DOWN are 50-50 any time,which 
is why you need to assess risk/reward ratio when making every decision.

Last week's rally means the bull is not dead. But could you tell me the
bases of you assumption that it will roar back 15% immediately after the 
bad days? In particular, how greater is the risk to grab that 15% gain?!

You may miss oppoturnities because of the loss of positions, but don't forget,
you may loss your investment capital because of over-positioned.

>> However, the unexpected rate-hikes in Italy and Sweden did betray the market
>> psyche. Rather than seeing a great turbulance, many markets stabilised 
>> after the initial shock. What it told us? Well, the market is waiting 
>> for something: some GOOD news (or excuses) to muscle a rally. Seeing that,
>> the decision of riding over the storm would not be too difficult to make.
>> 

>Europe's economic recovery is ahead of expectations.  Unlike the US, the
>unemployment rates are higher, thus keeping the inflation down.  Many expect
>many European countries will follow the US by raising interest rates.  If
>you agree, then stay out.  If you don't agree, buy on sell-off (like a week
>ago).

What is your opinion? Will you buy Europe or NOT? I can't see too much 
differences between US and Europe, other than that they are in different 
stages of recovery. If your decision is US is a buy, so should be the Europe.


>> Don't Forget: The Bull has been Wounded
>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

>I would said the bull has been recharged or refueled.

You mean it was away and charging its battery when the BEAR had its upperhand? 
Don't forget, the market is played by the same people!

>> It will be unwise to think that the market will rocket regardless of the 
>> recent deep scar. The Bull is already severely wounded. 

>A particular stock may go up like rockets.  Some stock indices may as well
>(like the Hengseng Indix or the Shanghai Stock Exchange).  But not the three
>major indices in the US!

Good point. Agreed. That does mean the market should have a few months 
digestion.

>> If the 70 points rise of Dow tells that the market is still a place to stay,
>> the afterwards 50 points rise should be an alarm. A too rapid rally would 
>> only bring, at the best, a subsequent prolonged period of consolidation.
>> I would rather see a few months digestion at the current level rather than
>> a sharp up-and-down, which will give us an ominous short-term double-top 
>> pattern and an extremely difficult time.

>Why a few months of digestion?  Are you saying we buy in a few months?
>Why not next year or now?  You seemed to be "certain" in when the market
>will go up higher.

What I am saying is: we still have a few months to re-adjust our portfolio,
and prepare for the next stage's rally. The precondition is that the market
does not go hype RIGHT NOW. If it does, the next stage will be a very danger
downward slope.

I am talking about the possibilities: the possibilty that market should
be consolidating recently is greater than it is going up sharply. Or, if
it does go up sharply, the possibilty that it goes down SHARPLY will be 
greater.

Unfortunately, we need to make a few assertions like the above to reach
useful decisions of investment. A rough judgement of how 10 years (or even 
a half year) trend will go simply does not help too much, as the chance 
of one-off bust also becomes greater. 

>> When over-pessimism turns to over-optimism, it is probably the time to make
>> an orderly retreat.

>I agree when you are overly invested at this stage, you probably want to
>lighten up.  I would not stay out completely.  I would lighten up on
>cyclicals for example, but stay with some of the technology sectors.
>Always keep some cash available when opportunities arise.  Read the
>WS Journal daily and keep an eye on the healcare debate.  Some drug
>and hospital supply stocks have made quite a come-back recently, but
>it is not over-yet.  Also, look for stocks that have been slashed
>badly, but are still fundamentally sound.  Furthermore, computer prices
>are being cut drastically.  What does it mean for this sector, and
>what will happen to the computer peripheral stocks (chips, keyboard,
>computer screens, memory, HD, CD ROM drives, etc.)?  Lastly, but not the
>least, the dollar is at all time low.  What does it mean for companies
>doing bussiness with Japan, the European countries, and booming markets
>in Asia?  
>
>My advice is: spend less time worrying about interest rate hikes, but
>instead, focus on fundamentals.  The US economy is robust.  The weakness
>in dollar is helping its competitiveness in world economy.  Stay invested
>and use any sell-off as buying opportunity.  Stock market is the place to
>be in the 1990s!

Interest to see your way of making investment decisions, which is more close 
to a big fund manager. I would just pick up a few companies, dig deeply 
into their reports, make sure that they are fairly priced and have got enough 
space to grow. Just a few correct decisions are enough to beef a small 
investor's portfolio up.

A few distinct facts also help. One thing I noticed is that (US)Dollar/
(Japanese)Yen exchange rate has double bottomed these days. That does tell 
Japanese market is more likely to be a place to invest in short-term. It is, 
however, still early to say what the whole 1990s' trend will be, as far as 
I can perceive from reality.

Thanks for a very fruitful review.

------------------------------------------------------
2. Another starter book 

>From: "NUHEP::YUEKUAN"@FNALF.FNAL.GOV

        In addition to the books about wall street recommended, I would also
    recommend 'A random walk down wall street"-By Burton G. Malkiel, 
    which is a pretty good personal investment book. Some schools use 
    it as a undergraduate finance sourse textbook. 
        
        Cheers.

                                   Charlie Li

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