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Re: Kenny fails YOUR stats!




In article <1995Aug9.145912.5944@cmkrnl> Jamie Hanrahan, Kernel Mode Systems wrote:
>In article <404o89$81s@news-e1a.megaweb.com>, kennystar@megaweb.com 
>(KENNY MORSE) writes:
>> In article <404cou$l46@clark.net> Kevin Atkinson wrote:
>> 
>>>They DO show what really happing.  Ok if a LA freeway speed limit went up
>>>to 85 mph (well above the 85th percentile speed on almost any road) do you 
>>>honesly think most people will do 95-100? (Challenge ONE)
>> 
>> Nope. I don't. Because Americans are NOT trained to be able to
>> handle these speeds safely. A small % WOULD go 95-100.  That's
>> not the point.  There will be NO 85 speed limit in yours or my lifetime.
>> The issue is if raised to 65 or 75, will they exceed.  I say ABSOLUTELY.
>
>Sure, a few will exceed any posted limit.  But how many?  

The answer.....MOST!
>
>>>(Challenge TWO) Ask you students if the limit was raised 10 to 15 mph if 
>>>they would exceed it automatically.
>> 
>> Kev...I DID ask. In TWO classes now (since Jaime asked me to) and
>> the answer was "probably".  And there it is.  
>
>That wasn't the question I asked you to ask.  I asked you to ask them,
>approximately, "what if the posted limit was above the max speed at
>which you feel comfortable on that same road today?  Would you STILL 
>drive 10 or 15 mph over the limit?"  That's a different question 
>entirely. 
>
>

Jaime...

I don't know what happened to the post where I DID answer your
questions about what I posed to clas.

I asked the question as Kevin asked.  I think YOUR question as
asked is moot.  To ask people that if the speed limit was 75,
would they only go 65 if THAT is where they felt comfortable is
obvious.  We already have that in place. People CAN go a minimum
of 45mph (if that is where THEY feel comfortable on the freeway) if
they do it in the exit lane, but they better have a good excuse when the
cop sees them doing it!  People pretty much fall into TWO categories:
1) People who speed because they simply WANT TO for their
own reasons:
                Late
                Fun
                Making money
                Feel comfortable at THAT speed
                Disrespect the law
                Disregard all laws

2) People who speed because they HAVE TO:
                Because going 55 will get you killed since EVERYONE
is going faster!
                To keep up with the flow for their OWN sense of comfort
                Their own sense of personal emergency

Yes, people do what is comfortable for them.....YOU DO!  Since there
will always be set speed limits (at least within yours and my lifetime),
the question is : Is it set fairly, based on SAFETY (which should be the
first consideration) and is it being enforced?  People's personal sense of
comfort should NOT be the barometer by which speed limits are set...
therefore the premise YOU keep trying to assert is irrelevant, and
as far as I'm concerned...NOT the operative concept in drivers in
California.  
          
                 

> These are average drivers
>> who absolutey reflect a cross section of California drivers who were
>      ^^^^^^^^^
>
>This is called "proof by vigorous assertion".  You'll have to do 
>better than that.  
Nope...I don't have to. In YOUR business....when people
try to tell you YOUR area of expertise, I bet YOU are vigourous
too when you disagree.  I will always assert that which I know to
be true.  So will you.  We can disagree.. That is what
places like this are for.
>>Two problems here.  First, I gave you a list of at least five 
>different groups of drivers who will be under-represented in your 
>classes.  If you gave a rebuttal to that, I didn't see it.  


Sorry you missed it. I answered each class.
>Second, the ones who are "caught" more often (and hence are more
>likely to choose to go to traffic school) tend to be the more
>dangerous drivers

Your premise is faulty...."caught more often?"
Who says they get caught more often just because they are in
traffic school???

.. the ones whose behavior makes them stand out on
>the road, even if they're not speeding.  
If they are not speeding, they don't get speeding tickets.  If their
behavior is "weaving" "tailgaiting" etc....their speed is usuallly
NOT written as a citation.

>I drive faster than posted limits all the time... when it's safe to do so... (and well below
>posted limits, when that's the safest behavior)... but I don't drive
>"conspicuously", so I don't get tickets any more. There are many
>drivers out there like me.  We're underrepresented in your classes 
>too. 
>
No....you are NOT under represented in my classes...you are not
represented at all! And you are the minority!  the California Office
of Traffic Safety did a survey recently that showed that 85% (curious
that it is THAT %) of all drivers in California regularly exceed the
posted speed limit every time they drive.  Well below is a TOTAL
minority position.
>(It's not because no one sees me, either.  Last weekend I was driving
>south on I-5, doing 75-80 in the second-from-the-right car lane. 
>About a mile up the hill, I noticed a Kern County Sheriff's car
>peeking out of my right rear blind spot. I maintained speed.  After a
>few moments he pulled left two lanes and cruised on past.) 
>
You lucked out. Thats all. Mr. Jaime is going to be a future
student doing 75-80. Bet on it!

>In other words, your classes are biased toward those who get tickets 
>more often than most

Nonsense.

 Of COURSE many of them would say "Sure, I'd 
>exceed a posted limit of 65 or 70".  That's why they're there in your 
>class in the first place!

Just like YOU and most drivers going too fast!  75-80. Jaime!!!!
Too fast for what? YOUR comfort? Safety?  No. Obviously
we disagree. For what???? THE LAW! Play or Pay  my friend.
>
>Re 85:  Kenny, we *have* a _de facto_ limit of 85 today -- on I-5 from
>the 99 junction (just south of Bakersfield) to, roughly the 152
>junction.  Slow drivers do 65-70 on that road, fast drivers do 75-80.
>It isn't that there's no enforcement, either; drivers doing 90
>get ticketed -- I've yet to be passed by anyone doing much more than
>85 on that road and NOT see them pulled over a few or even tens of
>miles later.  It works; the accident rate per vehicle-mile on that
>road is very low. 
>
Boy, you don't teach traffic school in Bakersfield.  When you
start doing THAT, give me a call.  You'll change your mind
about your observations.

>As I see it, the real problem with posted limits that reflect the
>actual maximum safe speed under ideal conditions is indeed one of
>driver education -- but not for those conditions; they do just fine
>under ideal conditions. 

I agree.

> I think that what we need is better awareness
>of when the posted speed is *too high*.  There are very few CHP
>officers who will ticket you for 65 or even 70 on the 210 when the
>road is almost deserted

Nonsense.  Stop tell me what cops will do.  Until you
stop getting them in YOUR classes, THEN your assertion
will have some weight.  Cops WILL....cops DO.....

>> but the posted limit of 55 lets them easily,
>without an argument, write you up for 65 or even 60 when you are
>obviously unsafe at that speed (due to heavy traffic, rain, whatever).
>The trouble is that the posted limit of 55 also lets them write you
>for doing 57 under conditions that are safe for 70. 

Never happens. Been teaching for 8 years. Never heard of in class,
or on the air, anyone getting 57 in a 55 unless they were doing somthing
else VERY stupid.
>

Jaime....look, you are an intelligent and articulate advocate
for your position.  But you make the human mistake in
believing that because YOU do this or that, that this
is the basis for other's behavior.  I only wish it was
(except for that 75-80 bit!).  If I've heard this once,
I've heard it a million times. Learn what happens
to the majority of people who drive, and why it
happens.  I have.  It's been an interesting education,
enlightening and dismaying.  But I can assure you
that these people in class are no different than you
(obviously...75-80!).

Kenny Morse
"Mr. Traffic"
http://www.usbusiness.com/mr_traffic.html

By the way.....what IS a Kernel Mode?  Popping Corn?
>	--- 
>




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