Swedbank: euro in Estonia in 2011 is possible
Juhan Tere, BC, Tallinn, 29.09.2009.Print version
Swedbank states in its economic forecast revealed on Tuesday that the Estonian economy has started to recuperate slowly and if “careful optimism” about the ability of the government to keep expenditures under control justifies itself, then the adoption of the euro in Estonia in 2011 is possible, Äripäev.ee/LETA reports.
Swedbank said that the Estonian economic fall bottomed out last summer but the GDP fall will still be 13-15% for the whole year. Next year Estonia’s economy stands still and in 2011 a 2% growth is forecast.
The main negative factor is domestic consumption – the bank estimates that it will fall in 2008-2010 by 30%. Exports on the other hand are recovering. Still, it may take at least five years to reach back at the pre-crisis levels, writes the bank’s analyst Maris Lauri in the forecast.
Swedbank forecasts that gross wages fall as the result of the crisis in Estonia by 10-12% and unemployment will grow by 2010 to more than 14%.
Lauri says about Estonia’s euro-perspectives that most likely the Estonian government will continue efforts to fulfill the Maastricht criteria. The bank estimates that the euro is within reach for Estonia but doesn’t exclude the possibility that Estonia might miss the target by an inch.

