Florida's Hurricane History
by Jay Barnes
Second Edition

424 pp., 139 photos, 87 maps, 3 tables
$24.95 paperback, $39.95 hardcover
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Foreword

In June 1972, I was a graduating senior in high school in southern California. Living just a few miles inland from Huntington Beach, I became an avid surfer and follower of hurricanes off Mexico's Pacific Coast. I knew they brought huge waves, and I rode many of them. That June, as I became interested in hurricanes and how waves grow, Hurricane Agnes meandered across the Florida Panhandle. Agnes's right–front quadrant struck a very vulnerable portion of Florida's coast near Cape San Blas. I read in the newspaper about high water there and the subsequent catastrophic flooding in the northeastern United States, both a result of Agnes. That news started me thinking that hurricanes were far more complex than just storms at sea that made big waves. So my meteorological career began when I flew off to the University of Hawaii. There was no better place for a surfer to go to learn about hurricanes and waves!


The Royal Palm Park in downtown Miami was littered with boats and debris after the September hurricane of 1926. (Photo courtesy of Special Collections, University of South Florida Library)

While at college, I studied tropical cyclones and their global impact. I soon learned of Hawaii's vulnerability and that Honolulu was a sitting duck for a major hurricane disaster (it still is). But news about hurricanes always seemed to focus on Florida. Its extensive coastline, uniquely flat land, shallow coastal waters, and large Lake Okeechobee make it extremely prone to hurricane surge. Much of its existing land was originally swamp. Perhaps that's the way we should have left it—pristine, remote, full of wildlife, and very vulnerable to hurricanes. But it's too late for that now.

Most of the land in Florida is within sixty miles of the ocean, making it and everything built on it extremely vulnerable to the ravages of hurricane winds. Gusting winds coming from the ocean don't get much chance to slow down over Florida's flat, smooth, swampy landscape before impacting residents and their property. And Florida's coastline is the most densely populated area of the state. Unfortunately hurricane waves have pounded every portion of Florida's coast. Today costly beach restoration is needed to fight the constant erosion caused by tropical storms and hurricanes.

Florida's hurricanes have long been a significant factor in the overall vitality of the state. At times, hurricanes have literally changed the course of Florida's history and development. The first changes likely occurred when Florida's native peoples learned to adapt their living conditions to the threat of hurricanes. Unfortunately European settlers were not as successful. Many of Florida's economic woes have been associated with big hurricanes. In modern times, Florida's agricultural and tourist industries have sometimes faltered with the passage of major hurricanes. In 1992 Hurricane Andrew temporarily crippled the state's home insurance industry by inflicting $30 billion in damages, causing many insurers to pull out of Florida.

Florida has experienced many great storms. Some have been deadly, others have left horrific damage, but all have tested the spirit and resolve of the people they affected. Some have passed namelessly into meteorological history. Each storm has brought a distinctive wrath, though at times only to a limited region. We know Floridians can adapt and recover. After Andrew, Miami's motto was "We will rebuild." Much of the state was challenged by the destructive 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, requiring a recovery effort that is likely to take years. Florida recovers, but the price of recovery continues to rise.

Florida's exploding population is a major concern for hurricane planners. Nearly all of the state's residents live in a "coastal zone," which exacerbates the hurricane threat. By 2025 Florida's population is estimated to exceed 27 million, compared to 5 million in 1960. Huge population increases, mostly in large cities, make hurricane evacuations more difficult because they take longer to orchestrate. Many lives could be lost in Florida if a major hurricane rapidly developed and then rushed shoreward overnight toward a large city while the residents slept, leaving no time for evacuation. Thousands could be trapped in their cars as the big one hit, stuck in traffic with no way out.

Efforts to educate the public about hurricanes and their life-threatening impact must be a priority. That's what we try to do at the Weather Channel. In Florida, understanding the threat is important for new residents as well as for older ones who may develop "hurricane amnesia" after a few years without a storm. Schools and the media must help in the hurricane education and preparedness process.

The importance of our appreciation of the power of these storms was made very clear during the devastating 2005 hurricane season. Hurricane Katrina became the nightmare we meteorologists have been talking about for years. After Katrina crossed Florida, it strengthened and flooded New Orleans, in some places with more than twenty feet of water. Some people who failed to evacuate waited helplessly on rooftops to be rescued; others drowned. The city succumbed to bedlam amid filth, rancid water, and looting. For days some were stranded in floodwaters that resulted from failures in a levee system built to protect against such disasters. The levee system had given a false sense of security to hundreds of thousands of residents that many paid for with their lives. Hurricane Katrina hit a city below sea level and a surge-vulnerable Mississippi coast with enough power to make Andrew's death and damage statistics fade quietly into the meteorological record books. But could Tampa be just as vulnerable?

Florida is extremely vulnerable for a variety of reasons. Many residents have moved to Florida from cool northern climates and have never experienced a hurricane. They are unaware of the potential destruction of a strong hurricane or slow-moving tropical storm. During much of the hurricane season, the state is inundated with tourists, many of whom are not prepared for an encounter with a hurricane. And many of Florida's sun-seeking residents are elderly and generally more vulnerable during hurricane evacuations because they may have serious health concerns that require constant monitoring. Most Florida residents have never experienced sustained hurricane-force winds, though many think they have because a hurricane passed within fifty miles of their home. Over the last several decades, Florida's coastline has filled with development. There is now far more property to damage, fewer undeveloped areas, and no decline in development in sight. This means costlier hurricane events. In 2004 the combination of Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne resulted in widespread damage across Florida, making it the most expensive year for hurricanes in U.S. history up to that time. After this devastation, the cost of property in Florida continued to increase, housing demand remained high, and Florida's coast continued to grow more vulnerable. Florida has some of the strictest building codes in the nation, but considering the magnitude of the damage in 2004, it has a long way to go before it becomes hurricane resistant--as demonstrated in 2005 by the large number of power outages from tropical storm Katrina.

The accuracy of forecasting hurricanes has improved tremendously over my meteorological career. On average, a five–day track forecast today is more accurate than a three–day forecast was in 1972. Better data collection and advances in computer modeling are two key reasons for these track improvements. Unfortunately improved accuracy in forecasting hurricane intensity (especially rapid changes in intensity) has proven more difficult to achieve. And forecast improvements really don't make much difference if emergency-management plans to protect the public are inadequate or the public's response is lacking.

Here in the pages of Jay Barnes's fascinating book, readers can experience for themselves the deep history of a state with a stormy past. They can compare the great disasters, read the personal stories, study the facts and figures, examine the photographs, and gain a valuable new appreciation for the force of hurricanes in Florida's past. In years to come, if another great hurricane strikes Tampa-St. Petersburg or Miami, those who take action because they read Florida's Hurricane History may very well save their own lives. And the rest of us will marvel at the unleashing of nature's fury on a state destined for yet another hurricane disaster.

Steve Lyons
Hurricane expert
The Weather Channel

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