[Prev][Next][Index][Thread]

Re: The Limits To Growth



In article <56g817$k0p@newsstand.cit.cornell.edu> Karen Stark <ks36@cornell.edu> writes:
  
 > 
 > >Making energy efficiency a general goal is foolish.  What counts is
 > >the labor efficiency that permits two percent of the American
 > >population to grow food for all of us and then some for export.
 > >Even yield/hectare is much less important than yield/man-hour.
 > >American farms are typically less efficient than European in
 > >yield/hectare and more efficient in yield/man-hour.
 > >
 > >-- 
 > >John McCarthy, Computer Science Department, Stanford, CA 94305
 > >http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/progress/
 > >During the last years of the Second Millenium, the Earthmen complained
 > >a lot.
 > 
 > John, you are about a century behind. The reasons given in the last 
 > century for reducing man hour inputs were that we "needed" cheap labor 
 > for the industrial revolution, but while maintaining an unemployment rate 
 > of 8% this argument is going by the way. It IS energy efficiency that is 
 > the problem now, particularly in Third World agriculture, where labor is 
 > what they have in greatest supply. Moreover, the looming food crisis is 
 > caused by soil loss. But even yeild per hectare shows limited awareness. 
 > It should be yeild per hectare+ fuel used to create, ship and distribute 
 > inputs + fertilizers, pesticides etc + man hours +  health costs due to 
 > environmental degradation   over time. In other words, if you yeild per 
 > acre is high today, but lower tommorrow you must factor that in. 

A century ago people worked 12 hour days, with Sunday and a half day
on Saturday off.  During the 20th century, energy use increased
enormously and working hours went down, vacations were instituted for
ordinary workers, paid retirement was instituted and years of
education were increased.  If our ancestors of 100 years ago had
somehow been persuaded that saving energy was more important than
saving labor, we would still have 12 hour days.

Yield per hectare keeps increasing, and there is every reason to
believe it will continue to increase.  Not even Lester Brown has
suggested that it will go down.  As the poorer countries adopt modern
agriculture, their nutritional level will increase.

Today China just signed up with Canada to buy two nuclear power
stations for $3.4 billion U.S.  The poor nations are not entirely
stupid.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
-- 
John McCarthy, Computer Science Department, Stanford, CA 94305
http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/progress/
During the last years of the Second Millenium, the Earthmen complained
a lot.