Re: Drucker revisited (fwd)

	thanks for this post.

	the bumper sticker on my car says "Kill Your Television" 
	 and i found this line below just too ironic:

-->... and there will not be many school children 
-->who will not have had some television in their educational experience . . 

	tv is certainly "educating" our children today.

	and the question is:
 	  can the Web be expected to do better?

On Tue, 4 Mar 1997, Kimberly Ryan wrote:

-->---------- Forwarded message ----------
-->Date: Mon, 3 Mar 1997 17:11:19 -0500
-->From: "Neal, Ed" <emneal.ctl@mhs.unc.edu>
-->To: learn@listserv.oit.unc.edu
-->Subject: Drucker revisited
-->Roger Akers' recent posting of Peter Drucker's prediction of the demise 
-->of Universities was interesting.  It  reminded me of a book I have that 
-->was published in 1966:   Murphey, J. & Gross, R.  "Learning by 
-->Television. " New York:  The Fund for the Advancement of Education.   The 
-->last chapter of this work is entitled "The Future of ITV" and it contains 
-->some predictions  that sound suspiciously familiar:
-->In 1961, Lester Asheim summarized the predictions of a group of 
-->outstanding ITV experts in a chapter appearing in Educational Television: 
-->The Next Ten Years. For the purposes of this report those same experts 
-->were asked in 1965 to update their expectations for the future on the 
-->basis of their experience in the intervening four years:
-->Although in 1971 the normal road to the college degree is still likely to 
-->be residence instruction, it is not impossible that as much as 50 percent 
-->of the college degree program will be available for credit via television 
-->. . .
-->Not every school, rural and urban, will have television by 1971, but 
-->probably every *major* school, college and university will have at least 
-->*one* closed-circuit system, and there will not be many school children 
-->who will not have had some television in their educational experience . . 
-->Some adaptation of the Stoddard Plan will be typical:  part of the day 
-->utilized in the large television class, and the rest in 
-->smaller-than-usual groups for discussion and socialization.  The exact 
-->proportion in television and non-television classes is not yet 
-->determined, and certainly it will differ for different kinds of subject 
-->matter and at different levels.  But the future will probably see 
-->something like 20 minutes out of the hour given to television at the 
-->elementary and secondary levels, and 30 minutes at the college level . . 
-->The greatest changes will be apparent in teaching method.  ETV will 
-->spearhead the movement toward the better use of instruction materials of 
-->all kinds, with the emphasis not on the gadget but on communication.  
-->There will be a tendency for the discussion groups to be even smaller 
-->than the present classroom, with ability groupings to facilitate the 
-->discussion.  The emphasis on ability groupings will lead to greater 
-->attention to the most able students, with greater reliance upon 
-->independent study and the development of responsibility for learning in 
-->the learner himself.  
-->School buildings will be much more flexible and adaptable, with portable 
-->soundproof partitions and similar features designed with ETV in mind . . 
-->The respondents predicted the continued growth in the use of TV for 
-->direct instruction; flexibility and eclecticism in the use of 
-->closed-circuit and broadcasting systems; greater and more reliable 
-->support for instructional television in school budgets; an increased 
-->number of expert practitioners; further reductions in the cost of ITV; 
-->and greater regional cooperation and federal support leading to higher 
-->quality.  They expected to see libraries of videotapes and numerous 
-->special uses for ITV such as international conversations for language 
-->students via satellite, and preschool programs modeled on the lines of 
-->Operation Head Start.
-->A documentary on civil rights, the international programs beamed from 
-->Telstar, Robert Frost reading his own poems, the unforgettable scenes of 
-->President Kennedy's funeral or Pope Paul VI's visit to the United States, 
-->the debate and teach-ins on Vietnam--it doesn't matter whether a student 
-->views these by himself or with five or six of his fellows or in a group 
-->of 100 or 500.  But with instructional programs pinpointed in purpose, 
-->and with TV integrated into the classroom and made flexible, ITV could be 
-->used for individual as well as mass instruction, and for highly focused 
-->purposes in between."
-->Of course we know that all these predictions came to pass and that 
-->Instructional Television transformed American education in the 1970's.  
-->One final note:  A previous chapter, entitled "ITV at the Crossroads,"  
-->begins with a 1966 quotation from Lester Nelson, the Acting Director of 
-->the National Project for Improvement of Televised Instruction.  Nelson 
-->wrote:  "We're at the crossroads.  We've got the hardware.  There's more 
-->government money available than ever before, and more is promised.  We 
-->have the chance to do more educational good in the next five years than 
-->in the past fifteen."
-->Ed Neal (ed_neal@unc.edu)
-->Director of Faculty Development
-->Center for Teaching and Learning
-->Campus Box #3470
-->University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
-->Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3470
-->    Ph: (919) 966-1289
-->    Fx: (919) 962-5236
-->Human history becomes more and
-->more a race between education and 
-->catastrophe.  H.G. Wells

Bert J Dempsey, Assistant Professor
School of Information and Library Science
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CB 3360, 100 Manning Hall
Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3360

Phone:  919-962-8066 (direct)
Phone:  919-962-8366 (to leave voice messages)
Fax:    919-962-8071

Office Hours: by appointment
Email:  bert@ils.unc.edu
Home Page: http://ils.unc.edu/~bert/

Follow-Ups: References: