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C|Net predicts doom for WebTV, push and Java
Whilst I was goofing off at work this afternoon, I came across C|Net's
home page and clicked on their current artcile "Ten New Technologies that
Don't Stand a Chance." (You can get there from www.cnet.com)
I was pleased to see push technology as their number one pick. They made
a good point in that PointCast was the darling of the press but no one
else, and that push is essentially annoying.
Another doomed technology according to C|Net is the Network PC. They make
a pretty convincing argument by refering to IBM's PCjr failuer of the
early 80's (IBM tried to market an underpowered machine and no one wanted
second best.) It seemed that they were getting at the idea that people
want real computers, not Network PCs or Web TVs.
They also doomed Java, because they see it as being subject to becooming
splintered and reworked by the various computer companies. This would
render it as universal as UNIX, which comes in "31 flavors" which are all
different.
Of course this article is very cynical, perhaps to a fault. Still, it
wuld seem that they are right about NetPCs, TV PC's, push and maybe even
Java. A lot of this is common sense stuff.
Of course, the last technology they doomed was the television, which was
pretty funny. They were obviously making fun of themselves and of the
possibility that we may all be sitting in from of Network WebTVs running a
Java push application while they look like idiots.
Thiis is definitely worth goofing off for twenty minutes to read.
eric chernoff
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http://sunsite.unc.edu/echernof/
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