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Re: The Limits To Growth



bg364@torfree.net (Yuri Kuchinsky) wrote:

>David Lloyd-Jones (dlj@inforamp.net) wrote:

>: The relative birth rate has been
>: delining since 1969-70,
>
>This is statistical trickery.

Nope.  It's a plain fact.

>: and the absolute number of births has been
>: declining since 1986 or so. 
>
>Incorrect. I heard that the net global population increase last year was
>the greatest ever. 

The two are not contradictory: there are now more old folk than ever
before.  Total increase will stay flat for the next few years, because
declines in births will continue for a while to be matched by declines
in deaths from increases in life expectancy among the very old.

>: The number of new mothers will start to
>: decline in the next five years, and the total number of possible
>: mothers a few years after that.   
>
>*If* some positive changes are happening -- you have to thank people like
>Paul Ehrlich, a great benefactor of humanity. People like DLJ and other
>(fake)-Libertarians are the people who did their best to counteract any
>positive endeavor in this area. Rwanda, and now Zaire, are attributable 
>to their efforts in no small measure.

I doubt that Paul Ehrlich has ever been in Zaire inhis life, and he
has certainly had nothing to do with the drop in birth rate there.
The main things causing the deline in birth rates are the decline in
death rates and the increase in television, cosmetics, and variety in
clothing, all of which make people aware of and desirous of modern
styles of life.
 
                                         -dlj.
 




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