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A dose of reality

Posted on January 23, 2008 by Staff

By Frank Heath
Sports Columnist

Maryland dealt UNC a dose of reality this past weekend, aggressively wrangling an 82-80 win over the Tar Heels at the Smith Center. For Carolina, this ended dreams of an undefeated season and bumped the Heels from the No. 1 spot in the country down to No 5, right behind hated rival Duke, in the latest AP basketball poll.

Perhaps more importantly, UNC also now trails the Blue Devils in the ACC standings, which could ultimately determine who gets to play in North Carolina throughout the NCAA Regional play. There is a lot of time to rectify this situation, but recent close outcomes against conference rivals Clemson and Georgia Tech have shown the Tar Heels to be vulnerable to more potential losses.

So what now?

A patient fan asks: What, if anything, could be the matter with Carolina basketball, and can it be fixed?

Some of Carolina’s issues have been circumstantial. Given the fact that UNC had four decent shots at the end of the game to tie or win, the Tar Heels could just as easily have emerged victorious Saturday and held onto their No. 1 ranking, and there would probably be articles out now about how great clutch performers these guys are. The Tar Heels did maintain their poise down the stretch against Maryland – so there isn’t a big question about their ability to handle the pressure of tight situations — at least not yet. In this case, the ball just didn’t bounce into the basket. You’re not going to win all the tight games, as the Virginia football team found out in their bowl game.

What is more troubling for UNC is that league opponents seem to have figured out some things about the Heels — namely, that they may be able to out push Carolina, be more aggressive than the Tar Heels and even out run this team now that Bobby Frasor is not available as a capable backup for both Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington.

Carolina is still going to be able to blow some people out and win a majority of its games just by having more offensive weapons and better rebounders than most opponents. But when the Tar Heels have encountered opposition that is playing well, and fearlessly, and “leaving it all on the floor” as they say, the Heels are finding themselves in a vulnerable spot. The three ACC teams that have played Carolina tight have all used more bench players for more minutes than UNC has and all three have been very physical with multiple defenders on Tyler Hansbrough.

This way of attacking the Tar Heels presents a difficulty for North Carolina when it gets into a tight second-half game, because Carolina’s domination this season has depended heavily on a couple of things: Hansbrough’s unrelenting will to out work opponents and the ability of Lawson and the UNC break to beat opponents down the floor for easy, momentum-shifting baskets.

If either of these angles gets compromised in the course of a game, Carolina’s advantage over decent opposition can become significantly reduced. And when opponents are running three physical guys at (and over) Tyler all night on both ends of the court, and fast-breaking effectively right back at UNC, there is danger for both of these situations to crop up.

The UNC half-court offense is just not as dominating a force as last season, when we had Brandan Wright also on the court. And Carolina’s defense shows the effects of using a pair of guards out front who are expected to play most of the game and who also have to carry a large weight on offense.

So there are weaknesses evident in the façade. Carolina did not defend well enough against Maryland’s dribble penetration, and that became a deciding factor down the stretch, as Greivis Vasquez took over the game on Maryland’s final possessions with his driving ability.

Now it is time for the Heels to react. Roy’s teams bounced back well the past two seasons after other league teams “figured them out,” making adjustments that seemed to take the legs out of some of the main things their opponents tried to do.

During this now half-done season, one simple way for Carolina to improve and to recapture its on-the-court dominance is for the second-tier players to step up, allowing Ty, Tyler and Ellington a bit more confidence that they can go all out while they are in the game and not see their efforts go to waste when they check out for a three-minute breather.

Player fatigue has become a more obvious concern since the Frasor injury cut into Carolina’s depth; but some recent developments have made this Tar Heel fan hopeful that it may not be a permanent and fatal weakness for this team.

That said, three things I’d be happy to see during the next stretch of games — which, incidentally, are not going to be easy for UNC — are:

(1) Marcus Ginyard taking, and making, a few three-pointers. The junior wing player made two treys on Saturday, his first two of the year, and looked a lot more confident once that first one fell.

(2) Alex Stepheson becoming more of an equal rotating partner with Hansbrough and Deon Thompson in the post. Stepheson looked really comfortable in the game Saturday and did some good things on defense, and Tyler really could use as much help as possible absorbing some of the banging down low and running lanes on the break.

And (3) Quentin Thomas getting to be a reliable cog in the guard rotation, at least during the first half. The senior playmaker has shown signs the past few games that he may be out of an earlier turnover funk, and his athleticism on defense and sometimes-ability to create scoring opportunities for himself and teammates could become highly valuable resources for UNC, especially if it allows Roy to rest, and push, Lawson and Ellington a bit more.

Q.T. is a tough case to figure. But with confidence-building performances in his past two or three games, this could be the right moment for the senior to break through and really play some of that basketball Tar Heel fans know he’s capable of.

If just two of these three things happen over the next few weeks, look for Carolina to move upwards and onwards. The main thing these Tar Heels need is a boost of energy and aggressiveness on defense and on the fast break, and more participation and ownership from Thomas, Ginyard and Stepheson could be a key to making both of these things happen.

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