Our rapt attention
Around town Tuesday night, the crowds were a little bigger — packed in at some places — and a lot quieter than usual.
At least they were quieter for about 90 minutes as the two candidates for the presidency squared off in Nashville for the second debate.
The same attentiveness held, we imagine, in thousands of living rooms in our area, although we know of a few where heckling and grousing punctured reverence for the ritual.
If you’ve sensed that something is a little different about presidential politics this year in North Carolina — you’re right. Of course, there is the historic nature of the two tickets and the rather urgent need for the country to move on — and away — from the past eight years of unrelenting arrogance, aggression, mismanagement and partisan decision-making.
Even more than that, there is a major difference in that the Old North State is truly “in play†for the first time in quite awhile.
You hear the national pundits refer to us as a red state or a deeply red state when, in fact, we’re quite purple; and in the Triangle (and certainly southern Orange County), quite blue. But let’s put the crayons down for a moment and look at the numbers.
The closest a Democrat has come to winning since Jimmy Carter’s 1972 1976 victory was in 1992 when Bill Clinton came within 20,000 votes — less than 1 percent — of defeating George H.W. Bush. Since then, the state has been solidly behind the GOP at the top of the ticket.
In 1992, the election also had an X factor in the candidacy of Ross Perot, who drew 357,864 votes — 13.7 percent — many of which likely would have broken heavily for Bush.
There’s also a third-party candidate this year, Georgia’s Bob Barr. He’s been a blip on the national story, but here and in a handful of other states where the major party candidates are within a few percentage points his candidacy may make a huge difference.
If you look at recent polling, Barr’s showing strength in the western mountains, parts of which identify closely with Georgia, and the 910 area code with those coastal-plain areas that have long been rich lands for Republicans. If Barr shaves off a few percent in these parts of the state — and polls now show him at around 7 percent in those areas — he may deprive John McCain of the margin he needs to carry the state.
Demographic trends are also working in Democrats favor, with much of the growth here fueled by younger, college-educated workers — two groups that lean more toward Barack Obama. Then there’s that extensive registration push the Obama campaign has launched that has added hundreds of thousands to the voting rolls in North Carolina. Heavily democratic Orange County has seen voting rolls jump by 12,000 since January 2007.
The proof of the strategy will be evident soon as early-voting sites across the state open up. We’ll see pretty quickly whether the new surge of registration translates to a similar surge of actual votes.
We suspect it will and that the seriousness and attentiveness on display Tuesday night is an indication that many of the people that cynical campaign strategists count on to sit on their hands will insist on being counted this time too.
One quick reminder: If you want to vote on Election Day — Tuesday, Nov. 4 — you must register by Friday. If you miss that opportunity, you can still vote during the one-stop voting cycle, which offers same-day registration and voting from Oct. 16 to Nov. 1.
If you have questions or want to know if you’re registered or where to vote, you can visit the Orange County Board of Elections website at www.co.orange.nc.us/elect/faqs.asp
If you live in Chatham County, visit the board of elections site at www.chathamnc.org/Index.aspx?page=110
Am I really the first to respond on the Jimmy Carter 1972 goof, or am I just missing where the comments are posted? I believe George McGovern got less than 30% of the vote in 1972, while Carter had around 55% in 1976.